The SEC has won the BCS National Championship for seven consecutive years. The streak has to end at some point right? With 6 teams in the top 12 of the country, the conference definitely has the best top, but the middle and bottom leaves something to be desired.
The Easiest Conference Wins- These three look to just be bowl-resume padding stats for the rest of the league this season.
Kentucky Wildcats, 3-9
Arkansas Razorbacks, 4-8
Mississippi State Bulldogs, 5-7
The Kentucky Wildcats simply serve as fodder until basketball season starts. Besides a fluky game against Georgia, this team did not come close to winning a conference game last season. Hell they lost to Western Kentucky, at home. The hiring of Mark Stoops may put the program on the right track, but it will take a full recruiting cycle, at least, before they are sniffing a bowl. Avery Williamson is a decent middle linebacker who will probably play some special teams in the NFL, but there is not much next-level talent anywhere else on the roster. Three wins might be too high for this team, but of course now that I say all this they will go out and upset Louisville.
Arkansas started last season as a national title contender, but saw that dream go down as quickly as its ex-coach on a motorcycle. Gone from the Razorbacks are starting quarterback Tyler Wilson, running back Knile Davis, leading receiver Cobi Hamilton, and starting tight end Chris Gregg. In comes new head coach Bret Bielema who brings a power and diverse rushing attack from Wisconsin. Leading the way for the rush will be the best center in the country, Travis Swanson. Brandon Allen will assume the starting quarterback job after filling in for Wilson last year when he was injured, and he has started this season strong going 16-17 in Arkansas’ last scrimmage. The defensive line might keep this team in a few games it should not be in, with Chris Smith outside and Bryan Jones in the interior, but the rest of the defense is not up to par with the rest of the league. Bielema will turn it around in Fayetteville, but he will need his own type of players to do it, not many of which are already on the roster.
Mississippi State won eight games last season so that would lead you to believe them to be a pretty good mid-level conference team. However, if you look at the schedule the Bulldogs best win was against…. 5-7 Tennessee, at home. Mississippi State did not come within 14 points of any team they face with a .500 record or above, including a two-touchdown loss to Big Ten Mid-Level Northwestern. The Bulldogs do have talent though, with first-round guard Gabe Jackson and running back LaDarius Perkins. Tyler Russell is back at quarterback after throwing for almost 3,000 yards and 24 touchdowns last season, but the overall depth of Mississippi State is not strong enough to contend. Both starting corners were drafted in the second round and the defensive line will have to be rebuilt.
The Sub-Middle Tier- These teams will probably make bowls due to four non-conference games, but none will compete with the top of the conference.
Missouri Tigers, 5-7
Tennessee Volunteers, 5-7
Auburn Tigers, 6-6
Vanderbilt Commodores, 7-5
Mississippi Rebels, 7-5
Missouri is a difficult team to get a handle on after a very disappointing first season in the SEC. James Franklin seemed poised to break out as a legitimate elite quarterback, but cannot seem to shake the injury bug. There is some talent on defense (CB E.J. Gaines and DE Kony Ealy) and at wide receiver (L’Damian Washington and Marcus Lucas) but they will be young in the both backfields (no seniors at CB, S, or RB). The schedule is not friendly to the Tigers either, as they draw Texas A&M and a road trip to Ole Miss from the West division, and have a non-conference road game at Indiana.
Tennessee also welcomes a new coach in Butch Jones and he does inherit a good deal of talent. Antonio Richardson is a sure-fire first round offensive tackle, and defensive tackle Daniel McCullers won’t be far after him. A.J. Johnson is one of the best middle linebackers in the country, and the Volunteers have three other draftable offensive linemen. The passing game will be the reason that this team does not compete with the elites after the mass exodus of Tyler Bray at quarterback and receivers Justin Hunter and Cordarrelle Patterson. Junior Justin Worley is leading the quarterback competition but athletic freshman Joshua Dobbs and big-armed freshman Riley Ferguson could each see time. As the saying goes, when you have 2 (or 3) quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks. When you then factor in that after two cupcakes, the Volunteers travel to Oregon and Florida in back-to-back weeks, this season could get ugly.
If you want to talk about “What have you done for me lately?” then look no further than the Auburn Tigers. Just two years removed from an undefeated season and National Championship, Gene Chizik was fired after a disastrous 3-9 season last year. Guz Malzahn comes back to Auburn after a one-year stint at Arkansas State and he has a much friendlier schedule than the one Chizik faced last season. Four winnable non-conference games should send the Tigers bowling, a small success after last year. The defense will definitely be the strength of the team with two NFL prospects at each level led by Dee Ford at outside linebacker. The quarterback position is in flux as last year’s starter Kiehl Frazier is now a safety, and Juco transfer Nick Marshall takes over. Marshall is interesting in that he played in 13 games at cornerback for Georgia 2 years ago, before being dismissed from the team and scoring 37 combined touchdowns in junior college last year, throwing for 3,142 yards and rushing for 1,095. He did have 25 combined turnovers which should stop the Cam Newton comparisons right there. If he does control his ball security, Auburn could move to the top of this tier.
Vanderbilt is another team that was boosted by a weak schedule as they won eight regular season games over non-winning teams. Their best win was a 1-poin squeaker over a .500 Ole Miss squad. The rematch will open the season and the winner will really start its campaign on the right foot toward 8 or 9 wins. The Commodores lost starting quarterback Jordan Rodgers along with both starting guards. Wyoming transfer Austyn Carta-Samuels will take over at quarterback and he has one of the best receivers in the nation to throw to in Jordan Matthews. Matthews caught 94 passes for 1,323 yards and 8 touchdowns last year and should help Carta-Samuels’ transition. Cornerback Andre Hal leads an experienced group of defensive backs that will need to step up after the dismissal of some of the front seven due to rape allegations. Vanderbilt has four winnable non-conference games, along with home contests against Ole Miss, Missouri and Kentucky that should help this team get to 7+ wins.
Mississippi is a trendy sleeper pick to get near 10 wins due to the ease of their schedule. They will probably end up with 7 games against sub-.500 teams. However, I think those are the only wins the Rebels will get. Sandwiched around an FCS walkover are road trips to Vanderbilt, Texas, and Alabama, with back-to-back home games against Texas A&M and LSU shortly after. Bo Wallace will return as the starting quarterback after throwing for nearly 3,000 yards last season and 31 combined touchdowns, but needs to cut down on his turnovers (17 INT). Donte Moncrief is a top-five receiver in the country and Ja-Mes Logan is a solid secondary option. The defense will be young and could be exploited again early by Texas after giving up 66 points last season. These five teams are very close, and any one of them could end up at any spot between the 5-8 win range, depending on just a couple of swing games.
The Top Mid-Tier- These teams will not lose to anyone below them, but are not quite good enough to win the conference.
Florida Gators, 8-4
LSU Tigers, 9-3
Florida exceeded expectations last season and I think their true colors were shown in the butt-whooping Louisville handed them in the Sugar Bowl. I think the Gators were fortunate last season to get Texas A&M and LSU early in the season as their new quarterbacks were not quite ready yet, and that South Carolina’s quarterback was injured. Florida does draw Arkansas instead of the Aggies this year, but added a sneaky-good Miami road game to their schedule. The defense will again be the strength of this team with arguably the top cornerback group in the nation. All three of Louchiez Purifoy, Marcus Roberson and Jaylen Watkins are ranked in the top-10 at their position. Dominique Easley and Darrin Kitchens should get the quarterback quite often and Dominique Easley will take over the middle of the line from Shariff Floyd. However, I am not sold on Jeff Driskel. He only averaged 6.7 yards per attempt last season on his way to just 1,646 yards. The top two running backs are gone so the offense will rely on Driskel’s ability to make plays with his arm and I do not see that happening enough to crack the top of the league.
The LSU Tigers lost 8 starters on defense to the NFL draft, but the three returning are all top-five at their position. Second-ranked defensive tackle Anthony Johnson controls the point of attack so that fifth-ranked Lamin Barrow can fill the gaps from the middle linebacker spot. Craig Loston is the best strong safety in the country and will have to make up for the loss of Eric Reid in the back. Zach Mettenberger returns at quarterback or, as it should be called, game manager. Mettenberger will not be asked to make many plays, but just not make bad plays. Alfred Blue will handle the majority of the rushing attack behind a mostly new offensive line. The Tigers get absolutely screwed by the unbalanced (and just stupid) SEC schedule, getting both Georgia and Florida from the East (perspective-A&M and Alabama play none of the top three from the eastern division). LSU’s schedule has gotten somewhat less daunting after TCU’s best player Devonte Fields was suspended for the first game and two other TCU starters have left the team. What could have been a very tough game has turned into a manageable affair.
The Cream of the Crop- Any one of these four teams could win the conference and contend for the national title.
Texas A&M Aggies, 11-1
Georgia Bulldogs, 11-1
South Carolina Gamecocks, 11-1
Alabama Crimson Tide, 11-1
****Disclaimer**** This preview is under the assumption that Johnathan Paul Manziel will play without suspension this season.
Looking at my record predictions, one can see the problem with the SEC. With the unbalanced 8-game conference schedule, there can be a cluster of teams at the top with similar records that do not all play each other so it is difficult to ascertain the best team. If there was a year that the Aggies would break through this cluster and win the SEC, this will be the best chance it has. A&M returns the Heisman-winning quarterback, the best offensive tackle in the country in Jake Matthews, they have a go-to number one receiver in Mike Evans, and the schedule is as friendly as it will ever be. The Aggies get Alabama at home, and LSU is as down as they have been in the past decade. None of the other ten opponents should sniff eight wins and the Aggies only have four road games total. Now all of this could be for naught should the NCAA find the proof it needs to suspend Johnathan Paul Manziel. I think the Aggies can split the tough two games, but will not say which ones until my Post-Season preview next week.
It is hard to believe that Mark Richt was on the hot seat before last season started, and then became one Aaron Murray mental mistake from playing in the National Championship. The Bulldogs lost seven defensive starters to the NFL, but return the most complete offense in the SEC. I think Aaron Murray is the best quarterback in the SEC and will end the season with almost every passing record in the conference. The running back duo of Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall is unmatched in the country. Malcolm Mitchell is a top-ten receiver in the nation and Rantavious Wooten, Michael Bennett and Arhtur Lynch give Murray more than enough targets. The defense will have to reload, but only one elite offense is on the schedule (Clemson) so I think they will be alright with Jordan Jenkins leading the charge. The schedule does work against the Bulldogs with a road trip to Clemson to open the season, followed immediately by South Carolina, an off week against UNT, then a home game against LSU. After those four games, I think Georgia will run the table.
South Carolina has the best and most dominant player in the country. Period. Next time you want to be entranced for 30 minutes, look up Jadeveon Clowney’s highlight videos. They are simply amazing. Chaz Sutton is no slouch on the other side of Clowney either. Connor Shaw and Dylan Thompson return at quarterback, and Shaw has been used in a utility role in the pre-season to get both guys on the field. Marcus Lattimore is gone with no high-profile player to replace him. The defense will be good enough with Clowney to keep the Gamecocks in every game. The schedule is friendly too, with no Alabama/Texas A&M/LSU, drawing the two worst west teams, and getting Clemson at home in the last game of the season. If South Carolina had the offense it had two years ago with a healthy Lattimore, this team would probably go undefeated.
There is really not much else to say about the Crimson Tide. They have won back-to-back National Titles, and 3 of the last 4. A.J. McCarron is 25-2 as a starter with two championships. Yeah nine guys got drafted last season, but nine more are slated to go this spring with seven in the first two rounds. They have the most talent of anyone with the best coaches in the country. C.J. Mosley and Adrian Hubbard provide bookend line-backing with Haha Clinton-Dix ball-hawking in the secondary with Deion Blue while Ed Stinson rushes the quarterback. Offensive tackle Cyrus Kouandijio will be a top-ten pick, and his brother will start next to him this year and be drafted just as high in a year or two. Anthony Steen and Ryan Kelly will also continue the line of ‘Bama offensive linemen to the NFL, as they all block for McCarron and future first round pick T.J. Yeldon. Yeldon had the best yards after contact average of anyone in the nation last year in a backup role. Outside, Amari Cooper and Kenny Bell will be draft picks next year and Kevin Norwood will be this year. The team is just stacked, but they do have the hardest opening two-game set in the nation, with Virginia Tech in Atlanta and a road trip to College Station. I do not think they will win both of those games, but would not be surprised at all if they did. Come back next week to see where I see these four SEC teams fall in the national landscape.
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