Sunday, November 30, 2014

NFL Week 13 Picks

Quick picks this week due to the holiday weekend:

(Tweeted the Thanksgiving picks)

LIONS -7 over Bears
TOT game #1.

Eagles +3 over COWBOYS
I’ve been saying all season that Sanchez is better than Foles.

Seahawks +1.5 over 49ERS
Don’t trust Kaepernick at all.

Redskins +9 over COLTS
Backup QB’s are 13-3 against the spread in their first start after the quarterback change this year.

BILLS -3 over Browns
The Bills were really impressive Monday night.

Chargers +7 over RAVENS
This line is too high, and I’m calling it a TOT game after San Diego failed to cover last week and Baltimore destroyed the Saints.

TEXANS -7 over Titans
I have no idea why Houston would be favored by a touchdown against anyone, so this feels like a sucker line.

VIKINGS -2.5 over Panthers
I have absolutely no feel on this game so I’ll pick against the awful NFC South.

JAGUARS +3 over Giants
A sneaky TOT game after New York covered on Sunday night.

Raiders +6 over RAMS
Another TOT game, even though St. Louis lost last week.  Last week had a season high 5 teams lose, but cover.

BUCCANERS +6 over Bengals
TOT number #5.

STEELERS -3 over Saints
It is 54 degrees and rainy outside in Pittsburgh.

Cardinals -2 over FALCONS
When in doubt, pick against the NFC South.

PACKERS -2.5 over Patriots
TOT game after Green Bay didn’t cover against Minnesota.

Broncos PK over CHIEFS
Manning knows how important the first round bye will be with a win here.

JETS +7 over Dolphins
TOT game, along with getting a touchdown at home.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Broncos +10, Patriots +12.5, Colts +1

Others I Like:
Patriots/Packers OVER 46, Chargers +17, Jets +17, Steelers +7, Cardinals +8, Cardinals/Falcons UNDER 56

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami
Not many sleepers left this late in the season, but Landry against the Jets is a really good matchup.  If Dan Herron is available then snap him up because he will get the majority of touches in the Colts’ backfield.

This Week: 3-0
Last Week: 10-4-1
Season: 83-63-1
TOT: 16-9



Friday, November 21, 2014

NFL Week 12 Picks

            So I got back on the right side of even par last week, but The Opposite Theory took a small hit going 1-2.  With that said, both losses saw the non-covering teams driving for tying (covering) or winning scores until late turnovers/missed field goals.  More importantly, there were two games in which a bye week separated games so I was unsure of how TOT would factor.  In both cases, the games played into TOT favor, and against my picks.  I will add them to the official record for now, as even though it is a small sample size, the unlikelihood of reoccurrence is so small the sample actually fits.  There are eight TOT games this week so we will really put it to the test.
            For the fourth straight week I gave you someone un-owned in 90% of leagues that came through with double-digit points.  John Brown had 11.9 PPR points last week, good enough for a starter-worthy performance overall. 
           
RAIDERS +7.5 over Chiefs
This game had every trend going with Oakland: slight TOT, home underdog, touchdown underdog, and short week at home.

Browns +3 over FALCONS
Another TOT game after a big win by Atlanta and a devastating loss by Cleveland last week.  The Browns were one of the trendy picks last week with sharps/wiseguys, yet they laid an absolute egg.  I think the return of Josh Gordon will be the difference as he had 10-140-2 last year in his first game back from suspension.  Atlanta has the worst pass defense in football.

Titans +11.5 over EAGLES
This is a tough one in that Chip Kelly has never lost two games in a row as a pro or college head coach.  However, Tennessee showed that it could hang with better teams due to a newly found power rushing attack led by Bishop Sankey.  Zach Mettenberger can play within himself and the offense to keep the game close enough to cover.

Lions +7 over PATRIOTS
This game is oozing with TOT after a total annihilation of the Colts by New England last Sunday, and the punch-less loss by Detroit in Arizona.  Two things about Detroit: first, they are 4-1 against division leaders/wild card leaders, with their first loss last week in a close game with Arizona.  Secondly, they still lead the league in total defense, including being first in rush defense giving up just 68.8 yards per game (nearly 90 yards less than the Giants).  So for all of you people who thought Jonas Gray was a savior, I would bet money that Shane Vereen gets more PPR points this week.

VIKINGS +10 over Packers
This makes it four-for-five with another TOT game.  Green Bay had a blowout win over Philly while the Vikings got beat by the lowly Bears.  It also has the double-digit and home-dog trends going in Minnesota’s favor.  It’s really hard to go against Aaron Rodgers right now because he is playing nearly flawless football, but I have to stick with the trends.  I mean it led to a Rams upset of Denver in the same scenario last week, so it has foundation.

COLTS -13.5 over Jaguars
There’s no TOT here with both teams coming off losses.  Jacksonville has become a trendy pick because they supposedly can run all over Indy just like New England did.  What these people fail to realize is that the Colts have coaches too.  They will look to stop the run more than anything, especially against a rookie quarterback.

Bengals +1.5 over TEXANS
Both teams are coming off big wins last week in which each was a sizeable underdog.  I think Cincinnati was written off too early after the worst game ever by an NFL quarterback a few weeks ago.  A.J. Green and Gio Bernard fully healthy help give Andy Dalton the weapons to not be terrible.  Ryan Mallett had the beginner’s luck, but I think it runs out this week.

BEARS -6 over Buccaneers
Here’s another game in which both teams are coming off good wins.  First glance I wanted to take Tampa in the hopes that they somehow get in the race for the NFC South Division title (both Atlanta and New Orleans are playing NFC North teams with winning records), but then I thought that Chicago should not be favored by a touchdown over anyone with that defense.  Sounds like a sucker bet to me.

SEAHAWKS -7 over Cardinals
This is a surprising TOT game, after a late loss by Seattle to Kansas City last week.  Everyone is riding high on the Arizona bandwagon after Drew Stanton led them to a win last week.  I think this is a new trend worth looking at: a backup/rookie in their first start covering (which seems to be the norm now) and the second week getting beat because there is now tape on them.  I also don’t like that teams that have won 90% of their games past Week 11 have not covered in almost five years.

Rams +4.5 over CHARGERS
San Diego’s last five games include three losses and two wins over the Raiders by just 10 points total.  St. Louis has wins against Denver, Seattle and San Francisco over their last five games.  They also have close losses to Dallas and Philadelphia, showing that this team can cover with anyone.  The Chargers will still have to prove something to get this many points.

BRONCOS -7 over Dolphins
I feel like Peyton Manning will come through in a TOT game.  He had his worst game as a Bronco last week and ended his record streak of multiple touchdowns in the same game.  I sincerely hope that Julius Thomas plays, because I have him in my big money fantasy league and there are no add/drops anymore unless the player is on IR (I had already dropped my backup TE).  If Thomas does play, I think he has a big day against the weakness of the Miami defense, their linebackers.

Redskins +10 over 49ERS
This line just keeps getting higher and higher and this game is a prime example of TOT.  San Francisco had road win straight up and against the number last week while the Redskins got blown out by the 2-win Buccaneers.  I think these are the two most over-rated quarterbacks in the league, as neither one is really that good at throwing a football accurately.  I will take the points in what should be a sloppy, run-fest.

Bills -2.5 over Jets
This game has been moved to Detroit, but I will still take the Bills using the Bye Week Opposite Theory.  New York had a big win over the Steelers before an off week while Buffalo got beat handily by Miami last week.  I think Buffalo rallies around their city and situation to pull out the win.

SAINTS -3 over Ravens
In our last TOT game of the week, we have another bye week situation.  Baltimore had a nice, covering win over Tennessee before their off week while New Orleans has lost two straight at home.  Drew Brees has never lost three straight home games in his career, so I will have to ride or die with New Orleans.

Cowboys -3 over GIANTS
Eli Manning threw five interceptions last week. It was his third game with four or more interceptions in the past season and a half.  He has 20 3+ interception-games in his career (Romo only has 10).  One day, everyone will realize that he is a below-average quarterback who makes bad decisions, is a statue in the pocket, gets over-rated based on counting stats due to always having to come back, and he just happened to have the best 8 games of his career in two playoff runs.  He just plain sucks.  DeMarco will run for nearly 200 yards over this terrible rush defense, ranked last in the league.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Saints +7, Packers PK, Saints/Ravens OVER 39.5

Others I Like:
Browns +13, Lions +17, Bengals +11.5, Cowboys +7, Seahawks/Cardinals UNDER 52, Colts/Jaguars OVER 40

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Brian Hoyer, QB, Cleveland Browns
Still only owned in 20% of leagues, I gave you Hoyer a few weeks ago in his second highest week of the year.  Well this week he gets last year’s number one fantasy receiver back, and gets to face the Falcons’ defense giving up the most passing yards in the league.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 7-6
Overall: 71-59-1

TOT: 8-6

Friday, November 14, 2014

NFL Week 11 Picks

            Another sub-.500 week, but TOT was 2-1 and the Giants/Rams both gave up backdoor covers late as they were trying to catch up.  It goes both ways though, as the Saints were absolutely robbed.  You never see the pass interference call on the Hail Mary.  You could call it on either side every single time the play happens.  That was complete crap and cost me a fantasy win.
            Speaking of fantasy, there was an issue in one of my leagues this week.  I was offered Drew Brees for Matt Asiata, straight up and I accepted it.  There were cries of collusion and unfairness as a member wanted the trade to be vetoed.  As the most notable Fantasy Football writer Matthew Berry wrote a few weeks ago:

5. Veto the veto. You've heard me say this before, but until this miscarriage of justice is abolished, you're going to keep hearing it. Unless you can prove actual collusion, no trade should ever be vetoed. It is not your job to manage someone's team for them. Everyone should be allowed to manage their own team their own way. Even if you don't agree with it. Even if it's badly. You don't think he got nearly enough for his star tight end? So what? Not your team, not your tight end. The guy dealing him thought he got a good deal, that's all that matters. There's a special level of hell reserved for the people who veto just because it's a deal that didn't involve them or because "it's part of their strategy." That's not strategy, it's being a jerk. Win on the virtual field, not in some technocratic loophole. The art of negotiation is a skill in fantasy and is part of the game. A big part.”

In this scenario, no one would ever say that Asiata is more valuable than Brees in the long run.  However, the person trading for Asiata had Matt Ryan as well (who was actually projected to get more points than Brees) and needed as many points as possible to make the playoffs.  He was down a couple of running backs with Adrian Peterson on the bench, so he needed a big swing until AP could come back.  What better way than obtaining the guy having stud-games in his absence. 
Either way, if there is no blatant collusion of a team eliminated and the first place team or something, trades should hold up.  That’s the beauty of fantasy sports.  A C.J. Spiller for Mark Ingram trade would have seemed absolutely insane before the season, yet now would have been a genius move.  You never know what can happen, so you can’t judge someone else’s intuition.
Lastly, my Fantasy Sleeper of the Week Jordan Matthews was the third best receiver of the week and fourth flex player overall and almost every person could have had him.  I have given you three guys over the last two weeks and each has been a top-6 player at his position for the week.

Vikings +3.5 over BEARS
With my TOT, I have not really gathered enough evidence to see how a bye week affects the outcome.  Minnesota had a solid win, then a bye while Chicago coming off an embarrassing loss.  Until I find the trend, I will take the points against a team that might be as bad as they looked last week.

BROWNS -3 over Texans
You can carbon copy the last paragraph, except flip the winner/loser for this game.  Cleveland had a dominant win last week while the Texans were on a bye after a big loss to the Eagles.  These two games will be very helpful in figuring out the effects of the bye week on TOT.

Seahawks +3 over CHIEFS
This line has moved a full 4 points with no end in sight.  At first, it was a “nobody believes in the Kansas City home field” line and has morphed into a “nobody believes in the Seahawks anymore” line.  I will take the field goal of value for the defending champs as they start to make their run.

PANTHERS +1 over Falcons
This is another strong movement of a line that started at a field goal the opposite way.  More importantly, we have our first TOT game of the week as Carolina was absolutely drilled by Philadelphia (literally for Cam Newton) and Atlanta had a double-digit win.  The Falcons offense is not that strong on the road, so I feel even better about Carolina.

SAINTS -7 over Bengals
The public is all over New Orleans, which scares me, and both teams are coming off bad losses, just in different manners (blowout and last second).  When in doubt, take Brees at home who is 3-1 at straight up as well as against the number, and the only loss was the game referenced earlier.

Buccaneers +7.5 over REDSKINS
One day Tampa will finally cover for me, and I think it is this week against an inflated line.  Why should Washington be favored by 7.5 points against anyone?  Their only win by more than a field goal was against Jacksonville just before Blake Bortles was inserted into the lineup.  Meanwhile, Tampa Bay only has one loss by more than a touchdown since Week 3, and that came last week after they blew a fourth quarter lead. 

RAMS +10 over Broncos
In our second TOT game of the week, you get ten points with a home team.  It is a convergence of trends along with a new quarterback that I think St. Louis will rally around.  It would be quite impressive to win back-to-back road games by double digits.

GIANTS +4 over 49ers
San Francisco snatched victory out of the jaws of defeat known as the back judge’s flag pocket last week, while the Giants gave up a second half lead IN Seattle.  Sounds like a solid TOT game to me, and just like the last game you are getting a home dog of more than a field goal.  San Francisco is not that good, and I think their downward spiral begins Sunday: take the Giants money line.

Raiders +10 over CHARGERS
If you get blown out 34-0, I need to see you bounce back strongly before giving ten points your way.

PACKERS -6 over Eagles
Both teams are coming off of huge blowout wins, and neither is in a place where they are comfortably in the playoffs with the tough 8-team group atop of the NFC.  I think the short week, plus travel to the frigid Lambeau Field gives Green Bay a big enough advantage.

CARDINALS -1 over Lions
As well as Carson Palmer was playing, he was not the main reason that Arizona is 8-1.  Their tenacious defense and Andre Ellington’s versatility will continue to dominate even with Drew Stanton at quarterback.

Patriots +3 over COLTS
I am pulling a Matthew Berry here by taking the guys I’m playing against in my big money fantasy league.  The team that I am tied for the division lead with is starting both Brady and Gronk against me this week so I will be betting heavily on New England to hedge myself.

TITANS +7 over Steelers
Always take a touchdown with a home dog.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Giants +14, Browns +7, Colts/Patriots OVER 46

Others I Like:
Broncos PK, Saints +3, Titans +17, Seahawks +13, Saints/Bengals OVER 39.5, Cardinals/Lions UNDER 52

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: John Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals
John Brown has been a second team receiver for the majority of the season and now the second team quarterback will be starting; does that sound familiar?  Just as last week, a backup will utilize his comfortable weapon.  He is still available in almost 90% of leagues, so jump on him now.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 6-7
Overall: 64-53-1

TOT: 6-4

Friday, November 7, 2014

NFL Week 10 Picks

            So it was not a good weekend for me, or The Opposite Theory (TOT), as we finished at 5-8 and 2-3 respectively.  The Chargers pick really frustrated me because I knew that the late game, followed by cross-country travel for the noon game would be too much.  Between that, and knowing that the Giants suck I cost myself a winning week.  However, in the long run if I stay on track with the trends I am following then it will pay off in my favor.

Browns +6 over BENGALS
I took Cleveland last night because the line was too high to begin with.  I never thought they would blow out Cincinnati and make Dalton look like such a chump.  Watch out for the Browns as they are now tied for the division lead and even if Pittsburgh wins Sunday they will still be in the lead for a wild card spot.

Jaguars +7 over Cowboys
No home team in this game because of it being played in London, and I still think it is a terrible idea to start Romo.  Look at it this way: if Weeden plays, sucks and Dallas loses, they are still at 6-4 and just need to finish 3-3 to get a likely playoff spot with a healthy Romo after the bye week; if Romo starts, gets hurt and is hampered the rest of the season, then they may win to go to 7-3, but can Weeden get you 2 wins in the last six?  Good luck.  With that said, Gus Bradley is going to bring the house at either quarterback, and unless Dallas runs the ball 40 times straight at the blitz they will have problems.

Dolphins +3 over LIONS
Miami has turned itself into a quality squad that can beat anyone.  They are surprisingly 4th in the league in rushing (due to Tannehill averaging almost 40 yards a game) and second in the league against the pass.  This formula has produced four wins out of five games, with a last second loss to Green Bay in between.  This is a bad matchup for Detroit, who cannot keep teams off the field with the 31st ranked rushing attack.

BILLS -1.5 over Chiefs
Buffalo is the other 5-3 team in the AFC East, facing off with Kansas City and their own 5-3 record.  Coming off of a bye, with a possibly healthy Fred Jackson, I like Buffalo in this spot.  There are not many trends in play, but I just have a gut feeling with the Bills.

49ers +5.5 over SAINTS
Our first TOT game of the week, New Orleans dominated Carolina last Thursday while San Francisco laid an egg against St. Louis.  Kaepernick has looked terrible, but I think there is serious backdoor cover potential.  New Orleans should get up big early at home, Rob Ryan will still bring the house to go for the kill shot and give up a couple of big plays.

RAVENS -9.5 over Titans
I was listening to a podcast with Bob Scucci, a head line-maker at a big casino in Vegas.  He said that he had not seen a single bet come in on Tennessee yet (this was Thursday, but still).  Not one.  Normally I like to be a contrarian against he public… but when a big casino is not taking A SINGLE bet on a team, I cannot side with them.

Steelers -4 over JETS
This is a reverse-jinx pick.  It is a TOT game the other way, 90% of the public is backing Pittsburgh, and several other trends point towards taking the home-underdog.  However, in my big money fantasy league I dropped Roethlisberger two weeks ago because I have Drew Brees and would not start Ben again.  He proceeded to throw 12 touchdowns in the two games since and in a key matchup this week my opponent has Andrew Luck on a bye and is starting… Roethlisberger.

BUCCANEERS +3 over Falcons
I still believe that Tampa is going to get it together.  They blew that game against Cleveland last week, and I am still not taking Atlanta for the time being.  Look at it this way: 6 weeks ago Atlanta was up 59-0 on Tampa, yet is only a 3-point favorite here.  I like that oddity in the Bucs’ favor.

RAIDERS +11 over Broncos
As much as this will be a Peyton Manning revenge game, giving more than 10 on the road is just ridiculous.  This could be Denver at Oregon and I would take the points with the Ducks.

Rams +7 over CARDINALS
Arizona is not a blowout team, and last week had more to do with Brandon Weeden.  Outside of the last time I needed him to keep it close, Austin Davis has scrapped himself in every game and made it close, so I will take the touchdown of value.

Giants +10 over SEAHAWKS
Seattle has not covered since September and now must give double-digits to a Giants team that does not give up even when down big.  Eli is the king of the fourth quarter garbage time, as he will look to pad his stats and get the backdoor cover.

PACKERS -7 over Bears
A night game, in Lambeau, with an extra week off is exactly where I love Aaron Rodgers.  Chicago only has one win in the last six weeks, including a 3-touchdown drubbing to Green Bay at home.  Rodgers and Nelson will go off in this one for near 200 yards.

Panthers +7 over EAGLES
I said it in Week 1 that we would see Mark Sanchez this season.  Foles was either going to get benched or hurt, because he was holding on to the ball for too long and making terrible decisions.  If his numbers were extrapolated out for a whole season, he would have had 21 interceptions.  Foles sucks, and I think Sanchez can run the offense just as well.  However, this is a TOT game after the Carolina blowout to New Orleans and the Eagles win over Houston.  I will stick to the trend here.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Broncos -1, Seahawks PK, Jaguars +17

Others I Like:
Saints/49ers OVER 37, Packers +3, Packers/Bears OVER 42, Bills/Chiefs UNDER 54, Buccaneers +13, Rams +17

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Jordan Matthews, WR, Philadelphia
Last week, Hoyer got you 20 points in a standard league, and John Carlson scored a touchdown for you.  This week I give you Matthews, who is still widely available.  He’s had at least 4 targets in every game, including 16 over the last two weeks.  He had been working with the second team (with Sanchez) until recently, so I think the Sanchize will go to him extensively this weekend.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 5-8

Overall: 58-46-1