Friday, October 25, 2013

NFL Week 8 Picks

The Lions and Redskins had late game blunders to blow me from having a good week, and the Vikings forgot that Adrian Peterson is on their team.  With that said, I am going to continue to go against the national betting consensus, because Vegas always wins, even when you try to bet the same way as it.
JAGUARS +17 over 49ers
I do not know how many times I will blow a Jacksonville pick, but a team getting 17 points at home is just ridiculous.  I guess I will get burned again.
LIONS -2.5 over Cowboys
Does this Cowboy team seem like a team that can win three games in a row and most likely take a 3-game division lead by tiebreakers?  I just cannot see that happening, and I’m sure that the defense won’t play three good games in a row.  Reggie Bush should have a huge day against the worst defense against running back-receiving in the league.
EAGLES -5 over Giants
I almost forgot that I am still betting every week against the professional football team that plays in the NFC from the state of New York.
Browns +8 over CHIEFS
Kansas City is due for a letdown, and the Browns defense could provide just that.  Cleveland has a stout run defense and a spectacular shutdown corner, meaning it will be up to Alex Smith to utilize his secondary weapons to win the game.  I think that the Browns keep it within a touchdown.
Bills +14 over SAINTS
This line has just ballooned, and Jimmy Graham is not even a sure thing of playing yet.  The Bills might be under-rated still, so I will take the two touchdowns of value.  Moreover, my big-money fantasy team is still undefeated, so I’m sure Graham does not play and Brees has a bad day.
Dolphins +7 over PATRIOTS
I really just do not think that New England is that good.  Tom Brady is the 29th best passer by rating in the league.  29th. His completion percentage ranking is even worse, and I don’t think Gronk will help that much.  Tannehill started shaky, but came on strong last week and I think Talib is getting too much praise.  Hartline shines from the slot as the Dolphins pull off the upset.
BENGALS -6.5 over Jets
In the Sucker Bet of the Week, Cincinnati puts it on the Jets.  The line seems about four points too high for a Jets team coming off a huge win, and a Bengals team that seems to be stagnant.  So Vegas WANTS you to bet the Jets, meaning I will take the Bengals.
RAIDERS -2.5 over Steelers
So Pittsburgh has won a couple of games, they still have the same problems as before.  This just is not the same Steelers team that we have become accustomed to.  I think Terrelle Pryor’s athleticism gives the Pittsburgh defense fits, and he will burn Polamalu’s terrible discipline with a big play to Denarius Moore.
BRONCOS -12 over Redskins
There is just no way that Denver loses two in a row, so if there is no way for Washington to win, I cannot pick them to cover.  I do not think they would anyway, as the Redskins’ defense will not get a stop the entire game.
CARDINALS -2.5 over Falcons
Atlanta is still getting the betting line respect of the fully healthy team from last season that was a play away from the Super Bowl.  This is not the same team at numerous positions (receiver, running back, offensive line, defensive line) and the Cardinals defense steps up at home. 
VIKINGS +10 over Packers
As bad as Minnesota looked last week, I think the bounce back theory is in play.  Ponder should get the start, meaning a whole lot of Adrian Peterson up the middle.  I think the game has a lower score than expected, so the value of over a touchdown is solid.
Seahawks -10 over RAMS
Kellen Clemens?  Really?  Browner, Thomas and Sherman are just licking their chops waiting to get at the fluttering balls across the middle Monday night.  This one could get ugly.  Really ugly.

10-Points Teaser of the Week:
Seahawks PK, Broncos/Redskins OVER 47, Lions +7
Others I Like:
Chiefs/Browns UNDER 51, 49ers -7, Packers/Vikings UNDER 59, Broncos -2, Dolphins +17, Bills + 24

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 7-8
Overall: 56-52-3

Friday, October 18, 2013

NFL Week 7 Picks

I kept my head above water last week and furthered the profit above even.  My teaser plays have been a little off because I have not tinkered as much with them, but starting this weekend I will put more thought and time into which are the best options.  My new trend to watch has been the gambling consensus across the country and finding certain trends with different percentages.  I am going to put it in play this week and see what happens.
JETS +4 over Patriots
Brady has never had a flat-out dominant game against the Jets.  Rex Ryan has always done a superb job against him, and this could be the week we find out if the Jets are for real or not.  I’ll either look really smart or really dumb with no in between.
JAGUARS +7.5 over Chargers
Let’s face it, the Jags are a better team with Chad Henne behind center.  I get that he has no upside and that’s why they are trying to get the best out of Gabbert, but that Jacksonville team from last week was a lot better than the rest of the season.  I think they can hang close with San Diego.
Texans +7.5 over CHIEFS
The line only moved a single point (less in some places) with the naming of Case Keenum as the starter.  That seems fishy to me, and I think Houston will rally behind its new signal-caller and play the best game of its season so far.  Upset special of the week. (Reverse jinx?)
LIONS -2.5 over Bengals
Cincinnati has covered every game at home and failed to cover a single game on the road.  I think Megatron comes back with a vengeance for a monster game.
Bills +8.5 over DOLPHINS
No matter who has played QB for Buffalo this season, they have kept games close for the most part.  The defensive front seven is deceivingly good, the Spiller/Jackson combo is effective in real-life football (as opposed to fantasy) and the best indicator of all is that I am starting Tannehill on Brees’ bye in my big-money league.  You just know he will suck.
Bears PK over REDSKINS
I think Washington just might not be any good.  I saw them in person last week and for the first time in a while I had no doubt the Cowboys would win the game.  RG3 lacks explosiveness and courage in the pocket, and that has shown Alfred Morris to be a spare.  The defense is atrocious, so if you’re starting any Bears’ offensive player, you are in for a good week.  If Dwayne Harris can dominate in the return game, what will Devin Hester do?
EAGLES -2.3 over Cowboys
Since the current division format started, teams that get swept by a division rival one year cover nearly 70% of the time the first game they play the next season, if favored.  That trend is 4-0 this season, and I think it holds true as the Dallas defensive-line is hurting too much for that fast-paced offense.
Rams +7 over PANTHERS
While Carolina did look really good last week, they have just burned gamblers riding them all season.  St. Louis got a sorely needed confidence boost from the flailing Texans and I think it carries over enough to keep this game close.
Buccaneers +7.5 over FALCONS
Julio Jones is out, Steven Jackson is out, Roddy White is hurting, and now the Falcons are playing Darrelle Revis and a good Tampa secondary/defense.  This is a bad spot for Atlanta, as the Bucs can bracket Gonzalez and make Harry Douglas and Jacquizz Rodgers beat them.  Do you really think those two can lead a double digit victory?
TITANS +4.5 over 49ers
Both teams come in 4-2 against the number this season, and both have played inconsistently.  This is probably the hardest game to get a read on of the week, so I will take the home dog with extra value.
PACKERS -10 over Browns
Brandon Weeden, on the road, at Lambeau, against Aaron Rodgers.  I don’t care if James Jones and Randall Cobb aren’t playing, A-Rodg will find a way to blow this team out.
STEELERS -2 over Ravens
This is up there with that 49ers/Titans game in difficulty to get a handle on, except these teams are even more inconsistent.  The more I thought about it, the more I think Baltimore should be favored in the game, yet there they are with a number that is just begging you to take them.  Vegas always knows, Vegas always wins.  I’ll go against the grain, and my gut.
COLTS +7.5 over Broncos
Will Peyton Manning be out to seek revenge?  Most likely.  Will Andrew Luck be out to show up his predecessor?  Most definitely.  Will either defense show up to actually make stops?  Probably not.  I will take the half point of value in a shootout.
Vikings +3 over GIANTS
Insert pick against the football team in the NFC from the state of New York.

10 Point Teaser of the Week:
Packers PK, Cowboys/Eagles OVER 45, Broncos/Colts OVER 45.5

Others I Like:
Bears +10, Bucs +17.5, Bills +18.5, 49ers/Titans UNDER 51, Jaguars/Chargers OVER 34, Broncos +4

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 49-44-3

Friday, October 11, 2013

NFL Week 6 Picks

A strong 9-5 week brings me back into the green/black, and I really don’t have much to say about the best NFL game I have ever witnessed, other than if you think Tony Romo is to blame then you are ignorant to the game of football.
CHIEFS -9.5 over Raiders
This line seemed pretty high, until I looked at one key factor: the defenses that Oakland has faced.  Denver, Washington, San Diego, and Philly all rank in the bottom 6 in the league in defense, while the Chiefs have arguably the best unit in the league.  Terrelle Pryor comes back to earth in a blowout.
BUCCANEERS +3 over Eagles
Desean Jackson thinks he will just run past Revis Island, but he’s got another thing coming.  Nick Foles is not the prototypical Chip Kelly quarterback, and the Eagles sieve of a run defense will yield huge gains to Doug Martin.
RAVENS +3.5 over Packers
Torrey Smith looks to have finally broken out, and with no Clay Matthews the Green Bay defense will be vulnerable.  I think this turns into a shootout, so I like the half point of value for the home-dog.
BROWNS +3.5 over Lions
The Browns are on a three-game winning streak, with two of the wins by double digits and two against playoff teams from last year.  Their defense is legit, and Josh Gordon adds a deep threat to loosen the opposing defense off of a decent offensive line and a resurgent Willis McGahee.  I have totally talked myself into this team competing for the playoffs.
Panthers +3.5 over VIKINGS
EVERYONE was on Carolina last week to beat the Cardinals.. so they went out and lost by two touchdowns.  That is why I think they will bounce back this week, against a possible Adrian Peterson-less Vikings squad.
Rams +7.5 over TEXANS       
Are there really people laying more than a touchdown with the confidence-shot Matt Schaub?  I mean Houston may win this going away because the Rams are terrible, but I just refuse to give up that many points with Mr. Pick-Six.
JETS +3 over Steelers
So Pittsburgh is 0-5, but favored by a field goal, on the road, against a team that is 3-2.  I know that the Jets’ wins aren’t exactly spectacular, but the Steelers have looked really bad.  By this line, the Steelers would be favored by almost 10 points were this game in Pittsburgh.  That is just ridiculous right now, so I will take the value.
Bengals -6.5 over BILLS
The one time to not take the points with a home dog?  When they are starting a quarterback from Duke off of their practice squad.  Thad Lewis already showed that he is not an NFL-caliber starting quarterback, and now he will get to meet Geno Atkins.  Good luck Mr. Lewis.
Titans +14 over SEAHAWKS
I should not take Tennessee, because I do not think they can win the game.  However, I think their defense will keep it close, and two touchdowns just feels like too much.  I already hate this pick.
BRONCOS -27.5 over Jaguars
I don’t even know what to say… this line is just ridiculous, yet fair at the same time.  I don’t even know which way to tease it; I mean do you want to tease a team to 17.5?  I’ll just pick Denver to shut them out and score more than 30.
49ERS -10 over Cardinals
Going back to a theory I came up with last year about mediocre teams in the NFL: when they look really good/bad one week, they will look the opposite the next.  I used that theory for the Cardinals’ opponent last week, and will use it on them as well.
PATRIOTS -2 over Saints
The status of Gronk could still be in question, so I would not make the pick until that is known.  If he starts, I would take New England; if he does not, I would take the Saints.
Redskins +6 over COWBOYS
Dallas showed last week that their Tampa-DooDoo defense cannot stop anyone.  This could escalate to the epic score proportions of last week, so getting almost a touchdown feels safe.
CHARGERS +1.5 over Colts
The Colts are not a 12-win team, and if you look at their schedule, they only have two really tough games left against Denver and Kansas City.  This will be one of their upsets, as they look ahead a bit too much to Peyton’s homecoming next weekend.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Redskins +16, Redskins/Cowboys OVER 41, Patriots +8
Others I Like:
Chiefs +0.5, Broncos/Jaguars OVER 43, Packers/Ravens OVER 37, Panthers +13.5, 49ers PK, Bengals +3.5

Last Week: 9-5
Overall: 40-38-3

Friday, October 4, 2013

NFL Week 5 Picks

Well last week was a whole lot better as I creep back toward the midpoint.  Home dogs were good to me with a 4-2 mark, but it is time to give up on the touchdown underdog theory, at least for this season.  Teams favored by a touchdown or more are now 11-7-1 against the number.  I think it has to do with some teams (Denver, Seattle, New Orleans) being that good, and some teams (Jacksonville, Giants, Eagles) being that bad.  I started this week off strong taking the Browns as well as picking their defense up in almost every fantasy league I am in, so I think I can get back over .500.
TITANS +4 over Chiefs
After Jake Locker was deemed a no-go for the week, the line only moved half of a point with Ryan Fitzpatrick starting.  I think that the Titans are just not a team likely to get blown out, so I will take that it will be a close game. 
Ravens +4 over DOLPHINS
I think Miami came back to Earth a bit Monday night, and the Ravens need this game to keep pace with the surging Browns.  Joe Flacco will not play as horribly as he did last week, so I see him getting a strong performance for the victory.
RAMS -11 over Jaguars
I would buy this down to 10, so hold me to that number.  I just do not think I can pick the Jaguars again after the awful performance last week, then trading their starting left tackle.  Next week’s matchup with the Broncos should set an NFL spread record and look closer to an Alabama-Georgia State line.
Patriots +2 over BENGALS
I think either Amendola or Gronk comes back as Brady has started to click with the new guys throwing for 300 last week.  I am seriously worried about my AFC champion pick after giving up a great game to Brian Hoyer last week.
COLTS +3.5 over Seahawks
The Seahawks missed covering last week by a half-point and I would not be surprised to see the same happen this week.  Andrew Luck is the king of the backdoor cover, especially at home.  Russell Wilson seems to be in a sophomore funk that is keeping Seattle from blowing the doors off people.
PACKERS -6.5 over Lions
In a vacuum, this line seems three points to high and I would take the value with Detroit.  However, Green Bay is sitting at 1-2, and losing this game would put them THREE games back in the win column to the Lions as well as giving Detroit the inside track for the division by winning on the road.  With the bye week of preparation, A-Rodg goes off and dusts Detroit.
BEARS PICK over Saints
Being put down as a “Pick ‘em” at home is basically the same as a home-dog.  The Saints will be on a short week with travel (which they had to leave early, cutting into prep time because of a storm) and the Bears are one of the few teams that can match athletic DB’s/LB’s with the Saints offensive weapons.  Forte has a HUGE day and runs for a buck fifty.
Eagles +3 over GIANTS
Until further notice, I will not be selecting the professional football team from New York that plays in the NFC.
Panthers -2.5 over CARDINALS
This line puzzles me… a 2-2 Arizona team is a home-underdog to a 1-2 Panthers team?  Well Carolina lost by 6 points combined to Seattle and Buffalo, while destroying the hapless Giants.  The Cardinals won by 7 points combined over a bad Tampa team and a hurt Lions team in week 2, while losing badly to the Saints and terrible Rams.  I guess I will have to get away from the home-dog.
COWBOYS +10 (Yes, I found an online site with the 10 spot) over Broncos
Let me rant for a minute..  Why do I keep hearing people saying that the Cowboys need to: A. Run the ball more, especially against Denver as to keep the score lower; B. Throw the ball deep, because Tony Romo has become too conservative.  First of all, those two things are not complementary.  You do not want to just run, run, run, and then throw deep.  It is putting your eggs all in one basket.  Secondly, a lot of the people complaining about the lack of deep throws are probably the same that complain about Romo being too wild with the ball.  For the record, I do want him to throw deep to Dez more, knowing full well there will be more turnovers.  The risk/reward is what this team is built on so let him sling it.  However, I want this because YOU ARE NOT SHUTTING DOWN THE BRONCOS.  Period.  So if they are going to score almost every possession, Dallas needs to try and do the same.  That is not going to be running the ball.  It will be by letting Romo let the ball fly, and not worrying about if he throws a couple of picks or not.  They are trying to win, not keep it close.  Give me Romo this week to have a huge day.
49ERS -6.5 over Texans
Houston could be turning on their beloved spare of a football team, burning Matt Schaub’s jersey in the process.  The funny thing is, Schaub had one of his better days as a Texan.  Yes he threw a back-breaking pick-six, but touchdowns after interceptions are random and luck.  However, I think the pressure gets to him (figuratively and literally) and San Francisco romps.
RAIDERS +6 over Chargers
Terrelle Pryor is back this week and the Chargers defense is nothing special.  Denarius Moore will get deep a couple of times and turn this game into a shootout.  I will take the value of a close game for the home-dog.
FALCONS -10 over Jets
I really do not want to take the touchdown+ favorite, but the Falcons are in a bad way.  They need this win even more than the Packers because this game has been checked off as a win for months.  Matty Ice comes back strong from his bad decision making late last week, and Roddy White has a comeback party with 100 yards and a score.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Rams -1, Patriots +11, Packers/Lions OVER 41
Others I Like:
Cowboys/Broncos OVER 45, Rams/Jaguars UNDER 54, Packers +3.5, Falcons PICK, Saints/Bears OVER 37, Bears +10


This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 31-33-3