Friday, December 16, 2016

NFL Week 15 Picks


SEAHAWKS -16 over Rams
I really was not sure how high this line would have had to be for me to take Los Angeles.
Dolphins -3 OVER JETS
Matt Moore is not that much of a downgrade from Ryan Tannehill.
GIANTS -4 over Lions
I have given up trying to figure out how the Giants are getting these wins. They tend to let other teams suck just a little bit more and shoot themselves in the feet.
Eagles +6 over RAVENS
It’s a short week for the Ravens and Philly has to break their losing streak at some point.
BEARS +6 over Packers
This game will be absolutely frigid and that tends to lean toward closer contests.
VIKINGS -4 over Colts
Indianapolis cannot score on good defenses. Against Top-16 defenses, Indy is averaging just 16 points per game.
Browns +10 over BILLS
Cleveland has not covered a spread in exactly two months. It is REALLY hard to go much further on an ATS losing streak.
Titans +6 over Chiefs
Tennessee has not lost a game by more than one score since Week 1, when they lost by just 9 points. This team is in every single game it plays and if I’m getting nearly a touchdown with them against anyone then I’m taking it.
Jaguars +5 over TEXANS
DeAndre Hopkins and Lamar Miller are both dealing with minor injuries, so there will be more placed on Brock Osweiler’s shoulders. Those are not shoulders you want to put your money on.
Saints +3 over CARDINALS
Both of these teams have disappointed this season but I don’t see that much of a difference between them. Take the points.
49ers +14 over FALCONS
There is a massive trend against teams that score more than 40 points and cover one week not covering the next game.
BRONCOS +3 over Patriots
Tom Brady has lost his last three games at Denver, and one of those was with Brock Osweiler at quarterback.
CHARGERS +3 over Raiders
This feels like one of those late season games where Philip Rivers looks like a Hall of Famer and beats a team that he should not.
BENGALS +3 over Steelers
Might as well take all of the home underdogs right?
COWBOYS -7 over Buccaneers
Tampa’s defense has been better, but they still give up over 110 rushing yards a game.
REDSKINS -6.5 over Panthers
Washington needs this game to stay in reach of the playoff hunt.
Best Bets: 25-15
Giants -4, Titans +6, Redskins/Panthers OVER 50
10-Point Teaser of the Week: 36-3
Redskins/Panthers OVER 40, 49ers +24, Browns +20
Others I Like: 69-9
Giants +6, Titans +16, Buccaneers +17, Saints +13, Saints/Cardinals OVER 40, Falcons/49ers OVER 41
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 7-8-1

Season: 103-84-6

Friday, December 9, 2016

NFL Week 14 Picks

CHIEFS -3.5 over Raiders
I have been saying for a couple of weeks now that Kansas City is the favorite in the AFC.

Chargers +1 over PANTHERS
I mean, did you see the lack of effort and attention to detail by Carolina Sunday night? I can’t take them until I know Cam can deal with adversity.

Texans +7 over COLTS
The Opposite Theory here, as there is too much of an over-correction due to last week’s results. Brock Osweiler is terrible, but the Colts are not as good as they looked Monday night.

BROWNS +6 over Bengals
I think that there is a chance that Cleveland ends their drought here. If you are still alive in a survivor pool, I would be wary. This seems like that game that happens every year that knocks out the majority of people surviving.

BILLS +3 over Steelers
This is another TOT game, but don’t be deceived by end results. I mean, Buffalo was cruising, up 24-9 and just took the pedal off the gas against Oakland. Pittsburgh benefitted HEAVILY from Eli doing Eli things like throwing terrible interceptions.

DOLPHINS +2 over Cardinals
This line has moved a full field goal toward the Cardinals. Yet another TOT game, in which I don’t think Miami is as bad as they looked last week and the Cardinals are not as good as they looked. You get over a field goal of value here.

Bears +8 over LIONS
This line opened at 9, and sharps have bet it down a bit. Matt Barkley is not as terrible as I thought. Detroit only has one win all season by more than a touchdown. Chicago can keep it close.

JAGUARS +3 over Vikings
Minnesota has lost six of their last seven and four straight on the road. They have no offensive line, running game, or downfield passing game. Jacksonville can keep it close in what should be a 10-9 final.

Saints +3 over BUCCANEERS
Drew Brees is going to have a field day and this shootout should remain within a field goal.

EAGLES +2 over Redskins
The public has hammered Washington here, moving the line two points and totaling 85% of the handle. I think Philly can get out of its mini-slump against Washington’s terrible defense.

TITANS +1 over Broncos
This is a tough one with no word still on who’s starting at quarterback for Denver. I think Tennessee will be able to run the ball and slow down the Broncos’ pass rush in the process.

49ERS -2.5 over Jets
Bryce Petty is starting for New York.

PACKERS +3 over Seahawks
With no Earl Thomas in the middle of the field, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams will have monster games. Either that, or this is the sucker line of the week.

RAMS +7 over Falcons
All but one of the Falcons’ wins have been by a touchdown or more, and four have come on the road. So why isn’t this line higher? I think THIS is the sucker line of the week.

GIANTS +4 over Cowboys
This game just means more to New York. If they lose, they will only be a half-game up on Washington for the last playoff spot and they play AT Washington in Week 17. Also, if they lose, they will probably be underdogs in each of their last three games. A must-win for the Giants.

PATRIOTS -7 over Ravens
I think Bill Belichick has not shown his full hand with Marty B in the lineup, nor has he shown what they can pull out with both James White and Dion Lewis in the game at the same time. People are trumpeting this as a new rivalry, and that’s going to piss Tom Brady off.

Best Bets: 24-13
Vikings/Jaguars UNDER 40, 49ers -2.5, Giants +4

10-Point Teaser of the Week: 33-3
Vikings/Jaguars UNDER 50, Giants +14, Packers +13

Others I Like: 64-8
49ers +7.5, Saints +13, Saints/Buccaneers OVER 40.5, Texans +17. Titans +11, 49ers/Jets UNDER 55

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 6-9

Overall: 96-76-5

Friday, December 2, 2016

NFL Week 13 Picks

Cowboys -3 over VIKINGS
Should have covered if Dak takes one more step before sliding.

JAGUARS +4 over Broncos
84% of all money is on Denver so I will go with Vegas on this one.

Chiefs +6 over FALCONS
I really think with Gronk now out that Kansas City is a co-favorite in the AFC. Too many points.

Texans +7 over PACKERS
I’m not going to jump on the “Green Bay is BACK” bandwagon just yet.

Eagles +1.5 over BENGALS
This line has moved a field goal towards the Bengals. What am I missing about how terrible Cincinnati is?

SAINTS -6.5 over Lions
Detroit can only pull so many games out of their ass. New Orleans’ offense is rolling right now.

BEARS PK over 49ers
These teams are both awful, so I’ll go with the home team.

Rams +14 over PATRIOTS
No Gronk, no two-touchdown spreads for me.

RAVENS -3 over Dolphins
Miami is another team pulling random games out of their ass that I think is due for a clunker.

Bills +3 over RAIDERS
The Raiders are getting a little too full of themselves. And why is this line only 3 if Oakland is as good as everyone thinks? Sucker bet of the week.

CHARGERS -4 over Buccaneers
That was a slugfest last week between Tampa and Seattle and I think it takes its toll on them this week.

CARDINALS -2.5 over Redskins
Or is this the sucker bet of the week? Washington has looked really good, but I think the Cardinals’ defense can stop them.

STEELERS -6 over Giants
With the Cowboys’ win last night, the Steelers just need this game more. New York is almost locked in to the 5 seed.

SEAHAWKS -7 over Panthers
The Opposite Theory is in play here after Carolina covered and Seattle did not last week.

JETS +1.5 over Colts
In the battle of the aged running backs, I think the Jets prevail.

Best Bets: 22-12
Redskins/Cardinals OVER 49, Chiefs +6, Jaguars +4

10-Point Teaser of the Week: 30-3
Redskins/Cardinals OVER 39, Chiefs +16, Rams +24

Others I Like: 58-8
Jaguars +14, Texans +14, Dolphins/Ravens UNDER 51, Falcons/Chiefs UNDER 60, Lions +16.5, Steelers +4

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 10-6

Overall: 89-68-5