Sunday, December 29, 2013

NFL Week 17 Picks


So I came back down to Earth a little last week with a sub-.500 week for the first time in almost 2 months.  I’m assured of at least a profitable season overall with picks, as I gear up for the playoffs.  I also may have jinxed Romo last week, with my extended talk of trading him, and then he suffers a season-ending injury shortly thereafter.
            As far as week 17 goes, I am disappointed to say that I am still in one fantasy league championship (two-weeks per playoff matchup) and it is dumb.  I have Jamaal Charles and Calvin Johnson, which neither will play much (if at all) Sunday.  Week 17 should be relegated in every fantasy format to a different contest or nothing at all.  My personal theory is to make it a separate entity: you have the championship in week 16, and then week 17 has a side pool.  You can have either the most points for the week out of everyone in the league, or of people who did not get a payout.  This would keep people interested longer throughout the season even if they started off badly.
            On a happier note, The In-Laws did win my big-money league championship, fading Nick Foles in the end.  It did not look good after the first quarter of the Eagles/Bears game, but thankfully he slowed down and we pulled out a narrow victory.  We made the call of the season, starting Reggie Bush AND Joique Bell rather than Bush/Danny Woodhead.  I would have liked to see any “fantasy expert” that would have done that.
            As far as real football goes, I am trying to avoid talking about it since my heart/dreams/emotions/hopes were shattered along with Romo’s vertebrae.  Whatever happens Sunday night should not effect how someone looks at Tony.  The Cowboys could still win the game, but the defense will have to show up.  However, if Romo was in then there is a possibility that he could win the game in spite of the defense. 

FALCONS +6 over Panthers
I think the team will rally for Tony G’s last game ever and keep it close enough.  Speaking of Gonzalez, this season would have been a whole lot more interesting had the Chiefs traded for him to give him a final run as well as boost their chances to go deep in the playoffs.
Ravens +7 over BENGALS
Baltimore needs the game a little bit more than Cincinnati.  The Bengals hopes for a first round bye are slim, while the Ravens can win and then have the best odds of the jumble of 4 teams to get in the last wild card spot.
Texans +7 over TITANS
Would it not be just the epitome of the Texans’ season to win the last game and lose the first overall pick? 
Jaguars +10.5 over COLTS
I’ve given up on thinking logically with either of these teams.  Week in and week out they defy trends and logic.  I will take the massive spread as double-digit dogs are still above water on the year.
Jets +6 over DOLPHINS
The Jets’ defense has been surprisingly good this season, and Rex Ryan really should not be fired for the lack of offense with the awful quarterbacks he was given to work with.  I think New York’s defense will shut down Miami and lead them to a win.
VIKINGS +3 over Lions
Detroit is in a free-fall and now it is looking like Calvin Johnson will not play.  Matthew Stafford has looked abysmal, and I cannot believe that some people still would rank him above Romo/Rivers and a few other quarterbacks in the league.  With no Megatron, he is pedestrian. 
Redskins 3.5 over GIANTS
Both of these teams played surprisingly well last week, however their competition was nothing to cry home about.  I think that New York will not exactly leave it all on the field as they at least have their first round draft pick still. 
Browns +7 over STEELERS
Pittsburgh is still over-rated and giving a touchdown to a decent defense with that offense is nothing I want a part of.  Every game they play is within a touchdown it seems, so I will take the value.
BEARS +3 over Packers
With Rodgers and Cobb back, the line flipped more than a touchdown.  What are the odds though, that Cutler gets hurt, putting McCown back in and giving the offense the spark it has missed the last two weeks? Even if Cutler stays in, I do not want to go against a home-dog in a winner-take-all game.
RAIDERS +11 over Broncos
The Broncos should put this away early, but I still like Oakland’s backdoor cover potential.  Rashad Jennings has turned into a possible second round pick in fantasy drafts next year, and Denver will be resting an already depleted defense.
Bills +7.5 over PATRIOTS
New England obliterated Baltimore last week, but before that each other their previous six games had been decided by 4 points or less.  As injured as their roster is, I cannot see them putting together two straight blowouts.
Buccaneers +11.5 over SAINTS
The theory that a team, which NEEDS to win, will blow out a team playing an insignificant game is very overblown.  This theory has pushed this line a few points too high so I will take the value with Tampa.
CARDINALS +1 over 49ers
I am a believer, especially in Arizona at home.  I am not a believer in Colin Kaepernick and the rest of the San Francisco offense.  The Cardinals’ defense is legit, and I see a big game from Patrick Peterson: he always seems to live up to the bright lights.
CHARGERS -9.5 over Chiefs
Jamaal Charles will not play much at all, along with the rest of the Kansas City starters.  The Chargers still have an outside shot at the 6-seed and I think they blow this one out early.
Rams +11.5 over Seahawks
With the way the rest of the day plays out in my mind, Seattle will have the 1-seed locked up so this game will mean nothing to them.  Should San Francisco win, I might have to flip this back towards the Seahawks.
COWBOYS +7 over Eagles
The line has moved a full 10 points now since the Romo injury was announced.  I just cannot get past the last time they played: the Eagles were shut down by an already hurting Cowboys’ defense.  Yes Foles has progressed as well as the rest of the line, but there is definite “Ewing Theory” (a team rallying around the loss of its best player) potential here.  Either way, getting a full touchdown at home is hitting almost 75% of the time so I am not going to buck the trend. 


10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Cowboys/Eagles OVER 41, Broncos -1, Panthers +4

Others I Like:
Patriots +2.5, Ravens +17, Cardinals +11, Rams +21.5, Chiefs/Chargers OVER 33.5, Bears +10

Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 129-107-7

Friday, December 20, 2013

The Fate of Tony Romo and Week 16 Picks

                After the most brutal loss in my time as a Cowboys’ fan, I am at a loss for words to describe how I feel about this team.  Some might bring up the two losses to Detroit, this year with the last second comeback by Stafford and two years ago with the double-pick-six comeback in Dallas (which I was also in attendance for along with this past Sunday) but the Packers’ game stung more because of the larger lead, the backup quarterback, the stakes of being able to clinch the division this week and the fact that the Cowboy defense gave up 14 scores over 18 possessions including 11 touchdowns.  Just think about that for a minute: 11 touchdowns over 18 drives, all against second-string quarterbacks.  Yet, people still want to blame Tony Romo.
                Did Romo play well on Sunday?  No, I am not championing him for recognition, although in the first half he was 16-27 for 250 yards, a touchdown with no interceptions and a 26-3 lead.  Did he miss Dez a couple of times?  Yes, but Dez also pulled up on what should have been a touchdown, then just netted a field goal.  Did he throw two back-breaking interceptions?  Yes, the throw to Miles was a rushed pass (although if Dez was not cramping and in the game, I doubt he lets it get picked off) but Cole Beasley has got to finish his route on the second throw.  Should he have been even throwing?  YES!  What happened against Detroit?  Dallas ran the ball, got stuffed, punted, then gave up the winning score.  I’m sorry, but with this defense you cannot punt and hope for a stop.  It is just not happening.  Romo made the right call to check out of the run, he just made a bad throw.  It happens.  Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have twice each ended games with interceptions this season, the same amount as Romo.  Was Romo on the field giving up five consecutive touchdowns?  NO!! So why must people continue to pin the blame on him?
                As much as I really want to watch Romo win a Super Bowl in Dallas, it seems less and less likely of a proposition.  I am not throwing in the towel on the season, as I had just argued with some Packers’ fans at the game who said “Even if y’all get to the playoffs you won’t win the Super Bowl!”  It caused me to stop for a second because in no way would I make Dallas a favorite, but at the same time, who’s to say they couldn’t win it all?  I mean, because EVERYONE thought the Ravens would go on the road three straight weeks and win it all, just as EVERYONE put their money on a mediocre Giants team the year before that would not have even been in the playoffs if not for Miles Austin losing the ball in the lights.  Not since the last Patriots win has one of the actual favorites won the big game, it has just come down to who gets the TLF in their favor as well as which quarterback gets hot.  So while the Cowboys could make some noise with some injury-returns and a bit of luck, I am going forward on this post as if they miss the playoffs completely.
                Should Dallas not win the division, I think that they owe it to Tony Romo to trade him.  Now on the surface, his contract is immoveable because of the size, length, and his age.  However, there is a perfect landing spot for him where the Cowboys could actually get value: St. Louis.  My buddy Corey got me on this track as he was thinking of switching allegiances to Carolina from Dallas and I thought about which team I would like.  St. Louis is an up-and-coming team and once I found out that they can rid themselves of Sam Bradford’s massive contract with little to no dead money on the cap, I was hooked. 
                Bradford was the last of the mega-contract first overall picks, so his cap number has been nearly has high as Romo’s the past two seasons.  This means that they have the flexibility to take on the high number of Romo’s contract without causing a detriment to the rest of their team.  The Rams also have two first round picks due to the trade-rape of Washington for the ever-regressing RG3.  So if Dallas offers to eat some of the bonus money owed to trade Romo to the Rams for their lower first round pick (and even throw in Bradford if the money needs some finagling, I can’t see their exact contract stipulations) who says no?  The Cowboys could use their two first round picks to draft a linemen and their quarterback of the future in a deep quarterback class and began to actually build the team (obviously Jerry would say no to this, but I am just thinking as a sane man would).  The Rams could keep their top-2 overall pick, trade down a few spots to pick up more selections while still drafting an elite offensive tackle to complete an already decent line, as well as get the veteran quarterback that they are missing.         
St. Louis already has most of the pieces in place to be a contender.  Their defensive line is a top-3 unit in the league with Robert Quinn as a possible defensive player of the year across from Chris Long with Michael Brockers developing in the middle.  Alec Ogletree has had a fantastic rookie year at linebacker paired with the always solid James Laurinaitis.  Their secondary has youth and speed in Janoris Jenkins, Trumaine Johnson, Rodney McLeod and T.J. Macdonald.  On offense, Zac Stacy has been a breakout star at running back and Tavon Austin provides explosive big-play ability with Jared Cook’s ability to stretch the middle of the field.  The Rams are a big, possession receiver with some depth at linebacker and O-line from being a top-rate NFL team, provided they have better play at quarterback.  So with their picks, they could maybe grab Taylor Lewan from Michigan at tackle, then hope that Mike Evans slips to the end of the first round to use their extra picks to move up a few slots to get him.  You give Romo that squad, and I guarantee you a Super Bowl berth would follow.  Alas, Romo is stuck with Emperor Palpatine and will remain on a thin and mediocre team.
BILLS +3 over Dolphins
The difference between E.J. Manuel of late and Thad Lewis is not worth what they moved this line to.  I will take the home-dog because (albeit usually a Thursday game) the first pick of the week as a home-dog has been good to me.
Saints +3.5 over PANTHERS
All that any analyst has said about this game is that Drew Brees and the offense will struggle since it is on the road, against a good defense and in bad weather.  Now, what usually happens in an NFL game?  The exact opposite of whatever you think will happen.  I think that Brees takes offense to all of the skepticism and has a monster day (fantasy jynx or not, I truly believe this).
REDSKINS +3 over Cowboys
I really think that if Dallas had closed out last week, they could have won against Washington and put all of the pressure on Philly to beat a good Chicago team causing them to fold and the Cowboys to win the division.  Nonetheless, it seems like another week that Dallas cannot live up to their hype.  I am just certain that Tony will play a great game, but the defense will give up a lead late before Dez falls down on a route leading to a game ending interception.
Buccaneers +4.5 over RAMS
As I mentioned above, this is a good football team that just needs a quarterback.  They do not have one now, and I do not think their defense can carry them two weeks in a row. 
EAGLES -3 over Bears
Obviously this pick depends solely on the outcome of the Dallas/Washington game.  Since I have the Cowboys losing, I think Philly comes out on fire to end the race Sunday night.  Should Dallas pull out the W, the Bears will take advantage of a disappointed Eagles’ team and upset them.
Browns +2.5 over JETS
The Jets snuck in the backdoor cover for me last week, but I do not have faith in them again.  Cleveland has hung with two playoff bound teams the past two weeks, and I think they go off against a lesser New York team.
Colts +7 over CHIEFS
Indy got back on the right foot last week against Houston, and proved to me that they can start strong to go along with their second half heroics.  The Chiefs have blown out their last two opponents, so the odds of them having a third are slim; especially against another playoff team.
Vikings +8.5 over BENGALS
This Vikings team, in the word of KGB, has “alligator blood”: they just keep hanging around and hanging around.  They were able to do it last week without their top-2 backs, and now hopefully get Adrian Peterson healthy.  Not only do I think they can cover, I think they will pull the upset of the week.  The +320 moneyline is verrrrrrry intriguing.
TEXANS +10.5 over Broncos
Since 2009, home underdogs of more than a touchdown are 29-4 against the spread.  I cannot go against that trend now matter how much of a talent discrepancy there seems to be.
Titans -5 over JAGUARS
So Tennessee has lost three in a row and 5 of the past 6 (including at home to these same Jagaurs) while only covering once, and Jacksonville has won 4 of their last 6, going 4-2 against the number.  Ladies and gentlemen your Las Vegas Sucker Bet of the Week!
Cardinals +10.5 over SEAHAWKS
As much as bad-road-Carson-Palmer against the Seattle secondary scares me, I think Arizona can keep it close. They need to win to stay alive, and if they do they will be in position for the second wild card since either Carolina or New Orleans will lose.  I’m not sure they can pull it out, but they should rally and keep it close.
LIONS -9.5 over Giants
I know the first thing that ignorant people say when in an argument about Eli: “Well, he has TWO Super Bowls!!”  Well, now he also has thrown TWENTY-FIVE interceptions in a season TWICE!!  Since 1980, only two quarterbacks have thrown more than 23 interceptions in a season as well as won a Super Bowl: Eli twice, and Favre did it once, but he was 36 and hurt (I’m not including Peyton’s ROOKIE year where he was thrown to the wolves with a terrible line and even worse defense).  Eli may have a less than stellar supporting cast, but he has proven that he cannot win games by himself like the top tier of quarterbacks in the league.  He HAS to have a top-5 defense, a stable offensive line, and receivers that BAIL HIM OUT.  I love when Eli sucks.  I can’t wait until it’s a legitimate discussion over who was the worst quarterback to ever win a Super Bowl: Trent Dilfer or Eli Manning?
Raiders +10 over CHARGERS
San Diego knew that last week was a must-win against Denver and they played like it.  This usually leads to a letdown the next week, but luckily they have Oakland.  Ten points is too much to lay with a letdown looming, but they should still get the victory.
PACKERS -7 over Steelers
I honestly have no idea what the line will be, since Aaron Rodgers availability has not been 100% confirmed.  If he plays, Green Bay wins easily, so I will give them a seven point spread.  If he doesn’t, the game becomes a pick ‘em, and I still take Green Bay with a slight edge.
Patriots +3 over RAVENS
This line has moved all the way to a full field goal now, as people are over-valuing the happenings of last week.  It’s opposite theory time!  Well, somewhat: opposite in the way that the games ended.  New England actually did not play that badly, but lost and Baltimore’s offense was atrocious, yet won.  I think the end results right themselves this week.
Falcons +13 over 49ERS
I think this line is also dependent on a previous game.  Should Seattle beat Arizona knocking San Francisco out of the divisional race as well as Arizona from being able to pass the 49ers, I think they let up a little keeping Atlanta close.  Now should the Cardinals pull the upset, meaning San Francisco has to win to stay a game ahead and get close to the Seahawks, I flip this the other way.
10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Broncos -0.5, 49ers -3, Patriots +13
Others I Like:
Cowboys +7, Cowboys/Redskins OVER 42, Chiefs/Colts OVER 34, Broncos/Texans OVER 41, Lions +0.5, Seahawks/Cardinals UNDER 56
Last Week: 10-5-1
Overall: 122-98-7

Sunday, December 15, 2013

NFL Week 15 Picks


Once again, luck was not on my favor with my picks last week.  Even though my total selections went 9-7 for a profitable weekend, my best bets were a menial 2-4.  Meaning if there were $100 bets on each game, I was -240 in games I bet, and +470 in games I picked but did not bet.  Ultimate fail.  On the Cowboys’ front, the knee-jerk reactions of Cowboys Nation continue as now they are doomed to fail to make the playoffs in the majority’s eyes.  Yet, all that Dallas has to do is beat a Green Bay team at home, starting their backup quarterback, a Washington team with an atrocious home field advantage as of late with their backup quarterback, and Philadelphia at home.  Does that really sound so gloom and doom? 

                What’s even more ignorant about some analysts and fans is their insistence to blame someone for individual games.  Some people even went as far to blame Romo for their performance on Monday… Because you know he plays defense and gave up 45 points and failed to force a punt.  The reason the game went the way it did was the dropped interceptions.  There were two blatant drops and one overturned by a penalty.  If Dallas gets just two of those (which all three led to touchdowns) then it is a completely different game.  That is what Kiffin has made this defense: turnover or bust.  They just do not have the talent to line up and stop good offenses (Denver, New Orleans, Chicago) so they have to try and force as many turnovers as possible. 

                Where does that leave Dallas this week?  Well if Rodgers plays, they better hope he is rusty because the last time he played Dallas as well as the last time he played in this stadium (Super Bowl XLV) he was pinpoint and magnificent.  If Rodgers does not play, the Cowboys have actually been bend but don’t break against the middle to lower tier of quarterbacks, giving up just 73 points (14.6 a game) to the likes of Bradford, Griffin, Foles/Barkley, Ponder and McGloin).

                The biggest factor that gets over-looked is how good the Dallas offense has been at home.  Yes, I know that defensive stops/touchdowns skew the totals, but the Cowboys are averaging 34 points a game at home.  Can a Matt Flynn-led Green Bay team score more than 30 against the Cowboys’ defense, as depleted with injuries and leaky as it has been? That is the unknown and what will leave this game to the TLF rather than a blowout.

Chargers +10.5 over BRONCOS

I Tweeted this one out since there was not a home-dog on Thursday, I went with the double-digit underdog trend which is hitting about 62% on the season.

Redskins +7 over FALCONS

How much of a downgrade is it really from Griffin to Cousins? By my rankings and spread-guessing, I had it as a 4-point line from analysis on the season so far.  Since the only difference will be Cousins for Griffin, I think the rally-factor of the rest of the team around Cousins outweighs the slight downgrade in talent. 

BUCCANEERS +6 over 49ers

The first of the NINE home-dogs this week, Tampa Bay has been quietly good the past few weeks.  Sean Glennon might actually be a competent quarterback and the defense has finally jelled.  Outside of playing the terrible Redskins’ defense, Kaepernick has been atrocious on the road.  He has not broken 200 yards and has just 5 touchdowns versus 4 interceptions in the five games.  I will take the Bucs to keep it close.

TITANS +3 over Cardinals

Carson Palmer at home versus Carson Palmer on the road is a big difference.  The Titans have been decent recently and the loss of the Honey Badger will leave an opening for Delanie Walker to have a huge game.

RAMS +7 over Saints

Somehow I squeaked out last week (by 80 points) and now have gotten lucky that my semifinal opponent has Peyton/Demaryius who had subpar games, but my TLF cannot continue.  Brees and Graham are due for a terrible game and the St. Louis pass rush will be the difference.  Nope, no reverse jinxes here.

GIANTS +7 over Seahawks

As much as I hate it, I have to stick to the trends.  A west coast team playing on the east coast early game; home underdog; touchdown underdog; LVH SuperContest; public backing; every trend is going against the Seahawks so I will follow it.

BROWNS PK over Bears

I had already typed in the Bears winning, and then I remembered that their defense is awful, Cleveland has Josh Gordon, and the Browns defense is exponentially better than Dallas’.  Jay Cutler coming back could be the worst thing to happen to this Chicago team.

Texans +7 over COLTS

Indianapolis has not looked good in weeks.  They especially have been starting slow in the first halves, meaning covering by more than a touchdown is a long shot.  Houston has been competitive the past couple of weeks and will face less booing on the road than at home.

Bills -2 over JAGUARS

Why in the world is Buffalo favored on the road, over the team with the longest win streak in the AFC?  Why is the public all of a sudden backing Jacksonville, the least backed team all year, with 73% of their bets?  Why is the line the opposite way by the Vegas Power Poll by over a field goal?  Ladies and gentlemen, your “Las Vegas Always Wins” Sucker Bet of the Week!

DOLPHINS +3 over Patriots

This line slipped to 3 this morning and I am jumping all over that.  New England has not looked very good the past couple of weeks against non-contenders Cleveland and Houston, now they have a team in playoff positioning and there is no Rob Gronkowski.  Ryan Tannehill has even turned himself into a viable QB2 in fantasy and the Dolphins finally finish the job against New England.

VIKINGS +5 over Eagles

EEEEEEEEEEEvvvvveerrrryyyyyyybody is on Philly in this one.  A whopping 88% (probably top 3 all season) are backing the Eagles.  Yet, the line has only moved from 4.5 to 5.  What gives?  That means that the sharps are waiting to place their sizable bets on Minnesota whenever the line gets high enough.  Everything I said about Philadelphia last week still remains true: you cannot judge a team based on a game in a complete blizzard. 

Jets +11 over PANTHERS

Carolina just is not a blowout team.  The play smothering defense and let Cam Newton do just enough to not screw up the win.  Geno Smith on the road sounds like an abysmal thing to put your money on, but betting on Carolina to win by double digits is just as bad, so I’ll go with the trend of double digit-dogs.

RAIDERS +4.5 over Chiefs

You know that stat about 88% of the money being on Philly?  Well NINETY PERCENT of money for this game is on Kansas City.  I just cannot bring myself to pick against Vegas giving 9-1 odds.  That is all of the analysis I need for this game.

Packers +7.5 over COWBOYS

Since I started writing this, Rodgers has been ruled out.  Yes, I think the Matt Flynn-led Packers can put up 30 on this defense.  No Sean Lee, no Bruce Carter, no Morris Claiborne, a shell of DeMarcus Ware… Flynn will rejuvenate the Packers like it’s 2011 and lead them to the upset of the week.

STEELERS +3 over Bengals

This may end up being the second sucker bet of the week, but I just cannot trust Andy Dalton on the road, at night, in Pittsburgh. 

Ravens +6 over LIONS

Could Baltimore be recreating their run from last season?  At this point, they were right about in the same spot and Joe Flacco started getting hot.  We will see Monday, and I’m sure Reggie Bush will not play and Calvin Johnson will have a dreadful game to knock out three more of my semifinal fantasy teams.

(Best bets will be tweeted after final lines Sunday morning)

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Panthers -1, Packers +17, Packers/Cowboys OVER whatever the total ends up as.

Others I Like:

Bills +8, Redskins +17, 49ers/Buccaneers UNDER 53, Eagles/Vikings OVER 40, Browns +10, Rams/Saints OVER 37

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 9-7

Overall: 113-93-6

Sunday, December 8, 2013

NFL Week 14 Picks


Another solid week to stretch me to a profit at almost 20 games above .500, so I’m hitting at a 55% clip.  Stupidly, I’ve only been playing select games so I have not been taking advantage of my hot streak.  Of course, the simple solution would be to bet every single game, but I think I am due for a regression week back toward the middle.  Betting all 16 games a week is too risky, so I will not focus more on the best bets that I see of the slate.

JAGUARS +3 over Texans
Thursday night home-dogs are an amazing 6-1, including winning the last 6.  It has become the biggest lock of the season.
REDSKINS +4 over Chiefs
Another home underdog, and the Chiefs are reeling.  RG3 claims that they are not a 10-loss team so he has the chance to put his money where his mouth is.
Vikings +7 over RAVENS
I am still not sold on this Baltimore team.  They got by on the scrape of their teeth last week and the Vikings have now figured out that Adrian Peterson is really good when he gets 30+ carries.  Moreover, in my big-money fantasy league playoffs in which I am the first seed, I am destined to lose to AP in the first round.
Browns +10.5 over PATRIOTS
New England damn near lost to a horrible Texans team and the Browns have actually been halfway decent with Jason Campbell in at quarterback.  Josh Gordon is on fire, so I do not even think Aqib Talib can slow him down that much.
Jets+3 over RAIDERS
This Jets team is the epitome of the opposite theory.  They looked horrible last week, so I expect them to bounce back and play well this week.  The Raiders actually looked good last week considering they were on the road for a short week against a possible playoff team.  I.e. they will look terrible this week.
Colts +7 over BENGALS
I might be falling for the Vegas sucker bet of the week, but I just do not see how a division leader can be favored a touchdown over another division leader with the same record.  Moreover, Cincinnati is down some of their best defensive players and Andrew Luck is due for a huge game.
Lions +3.5 over EAGLES
I might be more interested in the total in this game (54) as the frigid weather and natural icy-grass will slow down Bush/McCoy.  Anyway, the Eagles were completely bailed out by every big 4th quarter call going their way, taking away a touchdown and interception from Arizona and helping Philly get a score.  Let’s look at who the Eagles have actually beaten: The Redskins which RG3 has not been anywhere near as good as last year; Eli and the Giants when he was in full suck mode of 0-6; rookie backup Sean Glennon and Tampa Bay; rookie backup Matt McGloin and the Raiders; rookie backup Scott Tolzien and the Packers; then they get bailed out against Arizona when Carson Palmer played like bad Carson Palmer.  I think they will be exposed this week.
Dolphins +3.5 over STEELERS
I thought for sure this line would be flipped the other way, so I feel like there is a touchdown worth of value here.  The Dolphins could win this game and have the inside track to the last wild card with two easier games against the Bills/Jets left.
Bills +3.5 over BUCCANEERS
After last week’s pitiful performance I just cannot take Tampa Bay.  It feels like a field goal-game, so I might be getting the half point of value for free.
Titans +13 over BRONCOS
Denver’s defense has not lived up to their offense this season and it will cost them in the playoffs.  The defense let New England back in and win the game, and then nearly did the same thing with Kansas City last week.  It will be another cold day, so Peyton won’t get to 50, meaning I think the Titans can keep it close enough.
CARDINALS -5 over Rams
This has got to be the ultimate toss-up bet of the season.  It is in the “Vegas Zone” between 4 and 6, the public is split completely even 50/50 on picking it, and both are in the middle of the pack in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest pool.  I think I will go with Arizona, as Carson Palmer has been good Carson at home more often than not.
Giants +3.5 over CHARGERS
70% of the country betting is taking San Diego, and the LVH SuperContest’s biggest consensus this week was San Diego over the Giants.  What’s that?  Nobody believes in the Giants to win?  They will most definitely win.  Upset of the week.
Seahawks +3 over 49ERS
Seattle has looked quite dominant of late, while San Francisco has only looked good against the hapless Redskins.  People are making it to be a marquee matchup, but Seattle will make it look like a blowout.
Falcons +3 over PACKERS
Can Matt Ryan put together back-to-back solid games?  I am not sure he will have to with Matt Flynn behind center for the Packers.  Not much info to go on since the line really just got settled this morning, so I will take the dog.
Panthers +4 over SAINTS
In my upset of the week part deux, I think the Panthers manhandle the Saints.  Not because of any betting trend, or football analysis.   No, the Saints will play terrible because I am the least lucky person with the TLF and in my big-money league playoffs, I have Brees and Jimmy Graham.  I am sorry to anyone else who has these two in the playoffs as well I have screwed you over.
BEARS +2 over Cowboys
The other home dog of the weekend, the Bears demolished Dallas last season.  There is also something at work with Chicago that no one will talk about… they are a better offense with Josh McCown than with Jay Cutler.  He leads the league in QBR (a stat I think is dumb, over-skewed toward the running quarterback and does not factor in actual passing numbers enough for the passing position, nonetheless he is leading it) and McCown utilizes his options better.  Cutler tended to get locked into Marshall, forcing interceptions and missing out on big plays.  McCown has made Alshon Jeffrey a fantasy superstar and given Matt Forte his best season yet.

Top Picks of the Week:
This is where I will point out the games I am actually going to bet on.
Redskins +4, Colts +7, Dolphins +3.5, Giants +3.5, Seahawks +3, Panthers +4

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Seahawks +13, Panthers +14, Lions/Eagles UNDER 65

Others I Like:
Giants +13.5, Chiefs/Redskins UNDER 55, Broncos/Titans OVER 39, Redskins +14, Colts +17, Bengals/Colts UNDER 56

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 105-86-6