Tuesday, June 12, 2012

NBA Finals Preview


With the NBA Finals starting tonight, I thought I’d break down the matchup and throw out a prediction.  Let’s start with Oklahoma City.



Oklahoma City Thunder, 2nd Seed in the West; 47-19 regular season record

How they got here:

1st Round: 4-0 over Dallas; 2nd Round: 4-1 over LA Lakers; 3rd Round: 4-2 over San Antonio

If there has ever been a metaphorical changing of the guard in a conference, the Thunder’s path to the Finals epitomizes it.  Only three teams have won the Western Conference in the Post-Jordan Bulls era, and OKC dispatched of all three of them during this post-season.  I will admit that I thought this team was a year away from truly contending, but as soon as Durant got that lucky bounce to win Game 1 against Dallas you got the feeling that this year’s Thunder are “That effin’ team”.  That team that has all the stars aligned and gets the lucky bounces when needed (think back to last year’s Mavs).

            When I say lucky bounces, I’m not calling what they are doing as a lucky streak.  No one can take away what OKC has gone through, and should they win it all the path to the title would be one of the harder in recent memory (I’ll still take the Mavs 4 opponents as being tougher based on LA/Dallas both being dramatically worse this year).  However, playoff basketball has a certain luck factor at the end of games.  In the last 15 seconds of the game, with a chance to tie or take the lead, the Thunder has made 3 of their 5 opportunities this post-season.  Their opponents? Zero for five.  Now is when the Thunder-bandwagoners start preaching about how clutch Kevin Durant is and that is the difference.  What I have to say to that is look at who took those five shots against the Thunder: Nowitzki, Terry, Bryant, Bryant and Ginobili.  That’s the last 3 NBA Finals’ MVP’s going 0-3, as well as Dirk, Kobe and Manu easily being in the top 6 or 7 of guys you would want to take a last shot, and JET proved he has the stones to hit the buzzer-beater as well.  Once again, very similar to Dallas’ playoff run of last year, during which Dwyane Wade, Durant, Kobe and Brandon Roy combined to go 0-6 in such situations, while Dirk and JET went 5-7.

            The Thunder has also proven to have a dominant home court advantage during these playoffs, as they have gone 8-0 in Chesapeake Energy Arena.  This could be huge against Miami since they do have home court advantage.    What the Thunder has not proven is their ability to use their athleticism to shut a team down defensively.  If you take out the two blowouts against San Antonio and Dallas in which the old fellas’ gave up by the fourth quarter, OKC is giving up just slightly under 100 points a game.  Now this is not an issue when you are scoring 102.3 like they are, but Miami will be far and away the best defensive team they have faced. 



Miami Heat, 2nd Seed in the East; 46-20 regular season record

How they got here:

1st Round: 4-1 over New York; 2nd Round: 4-2 over Indiana; 3rd Round: 4-3 over Boston

            The Miami Heat found their way back to the Finals for a second consecutive year, but it was in slightly less impressive fashion on the surface.  I originally thought it a no-brainer that the Thunder had a harder road, but after further analysis I think I give that edge to Miami.  Most of that has to do with the fact that Chris Bosh was out for the majority of both the Indiana and Boston series, but it also has to do with the teams.  The Mavericks and Lakers are in complete disarray (who would have thought Lamar Kardashian could ruin TWO teams’ seasons?) but the Spurs were a legitimately good team that went cold at the wrong time.  The Heat had to do with the Knicks, probably the most feared team outside of the top 6 or 7 contenders, followed by the deepest team in the league Indiana and the most veteran-savvy in Boston.  What was most impressive was that they did this against the three best centers in the East not named Dwight (and probably 3 of the top 5 of 6), while starting the likes of Dexter Pittman, Ronnie Turiaf, and Joel Anthony at center.

            The absence of Bosh is further a tribute to how well LeBron has played.  Bosh accounted for about 20% of Miami’s total points and rebounds per game.  So what has LeBron done? Raise his rebounds a game by 3 and points by 6 from the regular season, whilst playing power forward for stretches.  James has upped his scoring, rebounding, blocks, and shooting percentage in each round of the playoffs.  More importantly, when the Miami had their backs against the wall in game 4 against Indiana and game 6 against Boston, he did what only he can do on the face of this Earth.  40 points, 18 rebounds and 9 assists against the Pacers while playing 44 minutes.  45 points on 19-26 shooting (16 or the 19 were jumpers!!!) 15 rebounds, 5 assists, playing every second until being taken out at the end of the blow out.  People can say that he chokes at the end of games under pressure, but what they fail to realize is that there are games where he dominates them so completely that he can watch the end of the game on the bench.

            It has been a rocky post-season for the Heat with Bosh’s injury, Dwyane Wade playing up and down, the role players completely vanishing some nights; but LeBron has been the rock and is the reason they are back in the Finals.  I hate the guy for his “Decision” and premature ejaculatory championship celebrations more than anyone, but you have to respect the greatness that he brings to the table.



What to look for:

            For the first time since Michael Jordan and Karl Malone squared off in the ’98 Finals, the MVP and Runner-up are facing off for the NBA Championship.  It’ll also be the first time since Wilt Chamberlain and Nate Thurmond in the ’67 Finals that the MVP and Runner-up will be an actual matchup in the Finals’ games.  While Durant probably won’t spend much time checking LeBron, I imagine that James will want the opportunity to shut Durant down as much as possible.  It will just be up to Spoelstra on how much he will use him and Shane Battier, who has handled Durant well by getting physical with him (side note: why is it that no one talks about how little time Durant has spent in the weight room? I doubt he could even bench 200 pounds.  Does he not realize that if he did add some bulk to his frame that he could attack as ferociously as LeBron on both ends of the floor???). 

Either way, Miami has the defensive matchups in their favor.  If the Heat go big with a Wade-James-Battier-Bosh-Anthony lineup, then they can put Wade on Westbrook, James/Battier on Harden/Durant.  No other team in the league (especially not the first three the Thunder has faced in the playoffs) has three wing defenders like Miami.  The size and strength of those three should be able to stymie the Thunder’s quickness.  Another wing question is how much will Scott Brooks play Thabo Sefolosha on LeBron?  He is far and away their best wing defender, but if he is on the court one of the Thunder’s scoring threats will have to take a seat (unless he rolls the dice with Durant on Bosh, which Durant’s lack of weight-room time doesn’t lend that option much good).  I’m sure Brooks will keep starting Sefolosha with Harden coming off the bench to provide the microwave scoring, but it will be interesting to see how he rotates them once Harden does come in the game.  With that said, I’m going to have to give the slight edge to the Heat in the back court, just because if LeBron gets that look he had in game 6 then he will get the edge if he was starting next to Tyrion Lannister and Arya Stark.

The front court matchups are just as tough to decipher.  Is Chris Bosh really 100% healthy?  Can Kendrick Perkins keep his attitude in check?  Will Serge Ibaka continue hitting jumpers at a high clip?  Will the Heat’s starting center touch the ball?  All valid and important questions, but let’s start with Bosh.  Is he over-rated and somewhat spare? Yes, without a doubt; but he is still one of the better scoring options in the post (by in the post I mean a post player, I know he doesn’t actually score on the block) in the league.  If the shooting touch he showed in the last two games against Boston continues, he will be able to drag Ibaka (it has to be Ibaka on him after the case of concrete-foot that Perkins came down with against the Spurs) away from the rim and open up driving lanes for LeBron and Wade.  As far as Ibaka’s shooting, I feel like he is due for some regression, which for Oklahoma City’s sake he realizes before jacking up too many.  The x-factor of course though is Bosh’s health which I still think he was running gingerly in game 7 against the Celtics.  So I will go ahead and give the slight front-court advantage to the Thunder.

Each team has their big 3 to turn to for the majority of the game, but as the Mavs’ J.J. Barea proved last year, there is always a game or turned decided by a role player.  OKC has Perkins and Fisher who each have been here and won rings.  Perkins’ game doesn’t lead to decisive plays but more of a consistency.  Fisher has hit many big shots in his career in the playoffs, but he might be staring at a younger, better-shooting version of himself in Mario Chalmers.  Chalmers has shown since his National-Championship-Winning shot at Kansas that he is not afraid of the moment.  Last year he shot 14-35 from 3-point range in the Finals against Dallas, including three games where he made 3 or more (two ended up Miami wins).  He only hit on 31% against Boston so I’m expecting him to have a much better series, especially with Russell Westbrook’s lack of discipline on defense and the chances he takes.

There seems to be more variables with these two teams than a normal Finals’ of recent memory.  It might have to do with the fact that for the first time in 14 years one of the Western Conference Stalwarts are not playing in the Finals, but both teams have such wide gaps of play.  Whether it’s LeBron playing hot potato or playing like he is John McClane in a hostage situation.  Then there is Russell Westbrook who has not shown much of his me-first, hog the ball attitude, but if it comes out then it will be the Thunder’s downfall.  There is also Chris Bosh’s injury and whether or not he is going to be at his full potential.  Can the Thunder deal with the pressure or will they fold?  With all of these questions hampering one’s ability to foresee what might happen, I’m going to go with what I know.  I know Mario Chalmers comes up big when the lights are brightest so I think he will swing one game, whether it be a run of threes in a row or a game-winner.  I know that the way that home court plays out, the team with home-court advantage is at a distinct disadvantage if they lose one of the first two, or lose game 3 and 4.  I know that Dwyane Wade knows that since he has been on both sides of it, so I think he and LeBron will play almost every second of one of those games to steal the home court advantage.  I don’t know how the Thunder will react to the biggest of stages.  I don’t know if their late game luck will continue.  I know I picked the Heat to win it all before the playoffs started.  I know I hate LeBron James for wanting to be a brand instead of just a basketball player.  But I know that if aliens came down and threatened to take over the planet ala Space Jam, but we had to pick a team to play, LeBron James is without a doubt the first person I pick.  Heat in 6.