Friday, February 15, 2013

NBA Power Rankings: Game of Thrones Edition

            With the NFL Draft still a couple of months away, and spring training just getting underway, I thought it might be a good time to take stock in the NBA season.  At this point, we can see who is in position to contend, who might need one more piece, and who is hoping that Nerlens Noel has a speedy recovery/slips to them in the lottery.  Instead of just giving the odds that each team has of winning the title, I thought I might throw in a Game of Thrones theme (ONLY 44 DAYS!!).  Each team will be likened to a group in the show based on their power/chances of contending along with their odds of winning the title. 

House Lannister- Where the Power resides.
Miami Heat, 36-14
This is the most spot-on comparison.  You have the team with the most power, the champions, who last year had to take it after being so close, just as Joffrey took the crown after being prince.  They have the undisputed best player/knight in LeBron James and Jaime Lannister.  Dwayne Wade is a little bitch who uses others talents (LeBron, Shaq, Pat Riley) just as Joffrey uses Jaime, The Hound, and Tyrion.  You can even see Chris Bosh moping around just like Cersei.  Ray Allen is the hired sword just like my favorite character Bronn.  After the battle of Blackwater, it looks like the Lannisters will stay in power for the time being just like I doubt anyone will unseat the champs.
+150
House Stark- Teams just on the brink.
Oklahoma City Thunder, 39-14
Just like the Starks losing Ned, the Thunder lost one of their key contributors in James Harden.  However, just as Robb is leading the Starks and the North to the brink of the power, Kevin Durant has the Thunder firmly in the driver’s seat as the team most likely to dethrone the champs.  I think the Harden loss has hurt more than anyone is talking about.  Kevin Martin is a completely different player and is just not assertive enough to take it to the rack when Durant/Westbrook needs a break.  With all of that said, last night’s dominance by the Heat shows just how far of a gap there is between Miami and everyone else.
+400
Los Angeles Clippers, 39-17
While the new kings of Los Angeles may not have the intricate comparisons to the Starks, their seat in line to power is just as close.  The Clippers have been showing an outrageously potent offense that goes 10 or 11 deep in their rotation.  Chris Paul is acting as maestro and Blake Griffin continues to progress as an all-around player.  Should LA make a move to ship Bledsoe out for a defensive minded center, this team could move right past the Thunder.
+650
Indiana Pacers, 32-21
Now I know if you have been reading my blog for a while you know I was all-in on the Pacers last post-season.  Some might say I was wrong in the fact that they were eliminated in the second round.  However, need I remind you that they were up 2-1 on the Heat and had LeBron not played one of the best fourth quarters in basketball history, Indiana would have had a commanding 3-1 series lead and a good matchup against Boston to get to The Finals.  Roy Hibbert has had a downswing just as Brandon Stark, but with the emergence of Paul George as the alpha-wolf (you see what I did there?) like Rob Stark, Indiana has the best chance of anyone in the East to outduel Miami.
+700
Memphis Grizzlies, 33-18
Of all the teams in this category, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph look the part.  Gasol could be straight out of Winterfell with that beard and I swear Randolph is the long-lost twin brother of Xaro of Qarth.  If Winterfell fielded a basketball team, I bet they would even play the same style as the Grizz: ground and pound down low with hectic and frantic defense.  With the Lakers out of the playoffs as of now, what other team can really contend in the West with the two bigs that Memphis puts out there?  The Rudy Gay trade drops them some, but honestly they could just as easily make a run without him.
+975
San Antonio Spurs, 42-12
While San Antonio and Winterfell have nothing in common outside of the terrible smell, the history of the Starks and Spurs are actually quite comparable.  The Starks have always been close to power and, in some instances, briefly held it.  This is just like the Spurs as they briefly take power, but can never win back-to-back titles.  However, like the Starks, they are ALWAYS there, close to the power.  Do I think that Duncan/Parker/Ginobili can make one more run at the title?  No, just as I do not think Robb Stark can take the crown without some help. 
+1000
House Baratheon- Stannis feels like he should have all the power, just like a few of these teams
Denver Nuggets, 33-21
I know, off the bat the Nuggets do not seem to fit in this category.  However, do you realize that the third longest active playoff streak is held by Denver?  Do you also realize that the top two streaks (held by Dallas and San Antonio) contain 39 series victories while Denver has just two?  The Nuggets are always there, but cannot quite grasp it, just like Stannis (I’m not using Robert/Renly in these comparisons, because they have since left the show).  Could the Nuggets make a surprising run with their fast pace and athleticism?  Possibly, since they are one of the few teams that can run with Miami.  Will this actually happen?  Stannis has a better chance of controlling his LOST smoke monster.
+1800
New York Knicks, 32-18
This comparison fits more than the previous as we are always inundated with the hope that the Knicks will be good because “Madison Square Garden is the best place for basketball.”  I have never been there, but I would much rather go to a newer, nicer, more high-tech arena.  Anyway, Melo acts as a good Stannis as someone who thinks they belong on top when really they do not belong in the same conversation as LeBron (Jaime Lannister).  They even have Tyson Chandler who acts as the Melisandre with mysterious powers that people think will help get the power/championship.
+1825
Brooklyn Nets, 31-22
Similar to the Knicks, the East-coast media bias gets you thinking that the Nets SHOULD be really good and in power.  However, what you have is the over-rated Joe Johnson/Gerald Wallce (Davos Seaworth and his son) and a disgruntled leader who, in retrospect, wishes he was playing/fighting back home Deron Williams (Stannis).  Brook Lopez acts as the LOST Smoke Monster as a wild card that no one really knows what they are going to get.  The odds of a team from here on out making a serious run start to take a hit.
+1900
Utah Jazz, 30-24
Only four times in the past 29 seasons have the Jazz not made the playoffs, and had Michael Jordan not come out of retirement, they would have two titles to show for it.  Ya know, just like if Cersei heeded the wishes of the dead king then Stannis would have all of the power.  The Jazz are lop-sided to the front court with not much to write home about in the back court.  Should they make a move and bring in a slasher for one of their plethora of power forwards, this team might have a shot at winning the West.  As it stands now, they will be on the outside by the second round.
+2000
House Targaryen: The team that had always held the power but is now in the realm of the unknown
Los Angeles Lakers, 25-29
By far the hardest team to rank and predict, the Lakers coincide perfectly with House Targaryen.  The all-time power within the league, the Lakers have always had their dragons in the form of Wilt, Kareem, Magic, Worthy, Shaq and Kobe.  They have recently hatched their new dragon, Dwight Howard, but is he ready yet to take the reins of power?  They are in the precarious spot of being out of the playoffs as of today, but you cannot put their odds too high because they very likely can reach The Finals should they get in.  This is comparable to Daenerys in that as it stands, she is not in the battle for power.  However, I would not be surprised at all if she is the only one left standing at the end looking over a charred landscape.
+2025
The Night’s Watch: These teams have no shot at power now, change is needed.
Houston Rockets, 29-26
The Rockets made one big move to bring in James Harden, but Jeremy Lin has been less than spectacular.  They have kept their powder dry in hopes that they can lure Dwight Howard, but that seems unlikely.  Just like Maester Aemon, they once held the power but are now left hoping for a new generation to take over.
+2600
Golden State Warriors, 30-22
With the gunning backcourt of Klay Thompson and Steph Curry, the Warriors can score with anyone, yet Marc Jackson has instilled a defensive mindset that has turned them into a complete team.  Should Harrison Barnes find his true potential like Jon Snow, then this team can turn into quite a formidable foe (my theory on Jon Snow is that he is the child of Lyanna Stark and Rhaegar Targaryen, who therefore would have a right to the throne).
+4000
Atlanta Hawks, 29-22
The Hawks are another team hoping for a big splash this summer, as no one on their roster has escaped trade rumors.  However, when they are focused and Josh Smith is either not taking or hitting his ridiculous long jumpers, they are a tough matchup for anyone.  I liken Smith to Samwell Tarley in that there are some things he can do well, if only he can stick to them.
+4400
Chicago Bulls, 30-22
Philadelphia 76ers, 22-29
Boston Celtics, 28-24
These three teams are all similar in that their best player has been or will be watching from the sidelines, just like Benjen Stark has gone missing from The Wall.  Each will need a young, inexperienced player step up if they are going to make some noise (Marquis Teague, Evan Turner/Jrue Holiday, and Avery Bradley respectively as Jon Snow).  Only this, along with their star coming back (sorry Celtics) can these teams make a run.
+4800
Dallas Mavericks, 23-29
Portland Trail Blazers, 25-28
Both of these teams are stuck in the middle of mediocrity which is the worst place to be.  The Night’s Watch is stuck in the middle of the North with the Wildlings mobilizing and the White Walkers walking on one side, and the battle for the crown on the other.  Neither place is where you want to be.  The Mavericks at least have some space and a couple of pieces that they could make a move for a big name.  The Trail Blazers (outside of playing Dallas) are probably better off with lottery balls.  Either way, as it stands now, they are on equal footing.
+5000
House Tyrell: young, showing plenty of promise, but not ready to make a run at power alone
Minnesota Timberwolves, 19-31
The T-Wolves are still not fully healthy, but in the Entertaining As Hell tournament that Bill Simmons has proposed, I think I would bet on a healthy Minnesota to win it.  They have a good future with Rubio/Love/Williams and might be able to make some noise next season (barring another injury).  This is just like Loras Tyrell who has had to join the Lannisters because he is not ready to rule on his own.  However, his sister is making the moves needed to be the next in line for power.
+7500
Toronto Raptors, 21-32
The Raptors are quite an intriguing team to me now, with the addition of Rudy Gay.  They might epitomize the Tyrells even more in the fact that they have the potential, albeit unproven, to take over.  With Kyle Lowry, Terrence Ross, Rudy Gay, Amir Johnson, Andrea Bargnani with Quincy Acy, DeMar DeRozan, Landry Fields, and Mickael Pietrus off the bench they have a solid nine-man rotation with almost everyone under 27.  They are too young for this season, but a defensive center away from making noise next year.
+9000
New Orleans Hornets, 19-34
Sacramento Kings, 19-35
Cleveland Cavaliers, 16-37
These three teams have young stars Davis, Cousins and Irving to build around, but need another lottery pick and a few veteran pickups before they can be considered contenders.  This can be likened to the Tyrell House in that they need a few new bannerman before making a run at the crown on their own.
+10000
House Arryn: Staying steady with no real prospectus
Milwaukee Bucks, 26-25
Phoenix Suns, 17-36
If Jennings leaves the Bucks, then both of these teams will be left with neither a star nor a good core to build around.  They might as well be little Robin Arryn still suckling on his mother because they are a long way away from any sort of power.
+15000
House Greyjoy: In need of a complete overhaul if they want a chance at power
Detroit Pistons, 21-33
Washington Wizards, 15-36
Orlando Magic, 15-37
Charlotte Bobcats, 12-40
I am not sold on Greg Monroe (although Andre Drummond might be coming around if he can stay healthy), John Wall, Aaron Afflalo or anyone spare the Bobcats throw out.  These teams have even less than the previous two just as the Greyjoys have been diminished to the Iron Islands’ prison with no one even worrying about them.  They might sneak up and beat a Stark for a night, but in the long haul the Greyjoy will always fail.  I just cannot see any of these teams nor the Greyjoys competing any time in the near future.
+100000

Sunday, February 3, 2013

Super Bowl Prop Bets


It is Super Bowl prop time!  For my game pick and analysis, scroll down to my last post, but this one will focus on the hundreds of Super Bowl prop bets that you can make.  The prop bet can get people in trouble.  Bookmakers have hundreds of guys who crunch every number even remotely related to the game so that there are not many easy bets.  The prop bets to focus on, are the ones that are not independent to this game (i.e. the same prop could be put in for any game).  Then, one can analyze the two teams to see if the odds are what they should be and find the value.  That is not to say that I will ignore the game-specific props, but they are more all about feel on the game rather than value.

(All of these props/lines are from sportsbook.ag)

Will either team score in the first 6 minutes of the game?
-130 NO
There tends to be a feeling out period in the Super Bowl as no one wants to fall behind.  These two defenses in particular will be playing safely in the beginning of the game.

First score of the game will be
+120 Any other score than TD
With +120 for anything other than a touchdown, that is putting the odds at about 31%.  The -140 for a touchdown first gives that about 71%.  For the season, the Ravens and 49ers combined for 60% of their scores as touchdowns and 40% field goals.  When you factor in their defenses and what they have given up, the numbers are even higher for field goals with a 57/43% split.  There is definite value on the field goal play, as you can also throw in the off chance at a safety to add to your chances.

Longest TD of game
-115 Over 44.5
Honestly, the odds on this prop are terrible, with a -115 clip either way of the bet.  However, I really like the chances of a long touchdown between the previously mentioned big play potential of the Ravens’ passing attack as well as a defensive/return touchdown possibility.

Will either team score in the last 2 minutes of the 1st half
-240 Yes
The odds are not great as far as the two teams involved, but I am more focused on Super Bowl history.  The last four Super Bowls have a score in that time frame, as well as nine of the last ten. 

Shortest made field goal
Over 23.5 yards
With the combination of Ray Rice, Vonta Leach, Frank Gore, Colin Kaepernick, and LaMichael James to run it in from the goal line, and Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis to go up and get fades, I feel like this will be way over.

Both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or longer
+120 Yes
This prop coincides with the last one in the fact that I do not think there will be many short field goals.  I also see that there have been 89 field goals of over 33 yards in the games with these two teams and only 29 of the shorter variety.  There is also really good value at +120.

Over/Under jersey number of player to score first TD
+110 Over 27.5
Over 54% of conventional touchdowns (rushing/passing) were scored by players with a higher jersey number than 27.  This is a sucker’s prop bet as most people will think that the odds are higher that Gore/Rice/Kaepernick will score first, and are not accounting for the rest of the team.  I will gladly take the +110 for something that should be closer to -110.

Will there be a safety
-1100 No
This is usually one of the best bets on the board since the odds for a safety are so much lower than the odds given.  However, it did happen last year which has forced this down from -1200/-1300.  What are the odds that two Super Bowls in a row would have safeties?

Total number of different players to have a pass attempt
+250 over 2.5
If you read my pick, then you can see why I like this prop.  I think Kaepernick goes down finally, and Alex Smith comes in.  When you throw in the odds for a Tyrod Taylor special play, or maybe a reverse pass with Moss/Boldin there is a good chance of getting that third player.

Total number of different Ravens to have a rushing attempt
-120 Under 4
Let’s see, Rice and Pierce for sure, most likely Flacco too.  That leaves Leach and the receivers on a reverse.  I will take the chances that this will at least push, more than likely stay under.

What will happen first
-165 Ravens Punt (over a score)
-140 49ers Punt (over a score)
As stated before, I think there will be a feeling out period and both teams will punt once or twice before finding their footing.

Joe Flacco to have more touchdown passes than Kobe Bryant 3-pointers made
Kobe has been in a passing mood and I expect Flacco to have a big game.

Lionel Messi to have more goals than Frank Gore touchdowns
-170 0.5 more
Messi will get at least one, more than likely multiple while Gore is probably a coin flip.  I just have a feeling Messi will have a big game.

Chris Bosh points vs. Largest lead in the Super Bowl
Bosh -0.5
Bosh will probably be good for 20 points against the Raptors and I doubt the lead will get that big in the game.

Most touchdown passes
-115 Joe Flacco (over Kaepernick)
Most Passing yards
-130 -16.5 Joe Flacco
As reiterated earlier, I think Kaepernick goes down, and I think Flacco has a big game.  I will take this even with the bad odds.

Most receiving yards Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin or Randy Moss
-115 -29.5 For both
I think Randy Moss might be a non-factor while Smith and Boldin are assured of having a few catches.

More Receiving yards Ray Rice of LaMichael James
-115  -16.5 Ray Rice
Ray Rice receiving yards
-130 Over 26.5
I think Ray Rice will have a long catch or two.

Joe Flacco touchdown passes
+220 Over 2.5
Joe Flacco will throw a touchdown before an interception
-200 Touchdown
Once again, Flacco will have a big game.

Alicia Keys National anthem
-130 Over 2 minutes and 5 seconds
Seems like a give in.

Gatorade Shower
I am feeling the lime green at +550 for some weird reason.


Friday, February 1, 2013

Super Bowl Pick

            It has been quite annoying and frustrating to see all of these Super Bowl “predictions” over the past week.  Most of these “predictions” are from journalism or broadcast journalism majors, so shouldn’t they know the meaning of the word? 
Prediction: to predict, as usually to foretell with precision of calculation, knowledge, or shred inference from facts or experience. (dictionary.com)
So if one is to give the winner of the game as the 49ers, as well as the final score, they would be making a prediction.  However, if the person then rights a small paragraph qualifying how the Ravens could win as well since it is “such a close match-up” or giving reasons how their “prediction” could be wrong, then the person is not making a prediction.  They are trying to play both sides of the fence, so that no matter what happens in the game the person is right in the end.
            For example, Elizabeth Merril of ESPN said, “Heart says that every time the Ravens have seemed overmatched in the postseason, they’ve managed to pull out a win.  Head says San Francisco is just the better team.”  Can you even tell who she is picking?  Kevin Jackson of ESPN said, “The Niners are the more well-rounded team, but Baltimore is the hot squad.”  By qualifying that he thinks the 49ers are better, if they win his Ravens’ pick will not look as bad (to him).  John Clayton picked the 49ers, but said “...It will not surprise me if they needed overtime to get the win.”  By saying that, if the Ravens win, he has an out saying that he thought San Francisco would need OT, so it was that close.  Mike Golic might have the most criminal of all “predictions” with his summary, “San Francisco may be the better team, but I picked the Ravens at the start of the year, and I still they have the team to do it.”  Not only is it an illicit humblebrag about his preseason prediction, he basically says he thinks that San Francisco will win but he has to pick the Ravens because he did it during the preseason. 
            If you are going to make a prediction, pick a score, or explain why a team will win, then pick a side and stick to it!  Do not waver on the fence, especially on a game like this matchup.  If you are thinking that San Francisco will win, then there probably is not a doubt in your mind that their defense, running game and Colin Kaepernick will just keep it going and the Ravens are too old.  If you think that Baltimore will win, then... well I will get to that.  Either way, you know why you think a team will win, but are afraid to say it.  It is not like this is Super Bowl V where the Cowboys and Colts were so evenly matched that the line was a Pick ‘Em and it was a last second field to break a tie and win the game for the Colts. 
            With that said, let’s get down to the actual game.  The first thing that jumped out at me was the line.  As soon as the Baltimore/New England game ended, Vegas opened the line at San Francisco -5.  Within an hour or so, that line was bet down to -4, and has even hovered to -3.5 at the MGM.  Do you know who bets the Super Bowl line two weeks before the actual game? People who know things and take a good value when you see it.  So the sharps are all over Baltimore.  The actual line also tells you something.  The line-setters know that San Francisco is probably the second most publically bet team (meaning that they bring in money no matter how big the game is, or how good the team is because they have a wide fan base) to the Cowboys. Almost every Cowboys/49ers line is bumped a point or two regularly to account for the lop-sided percentage of where the bets are (not a factor in the ‘70’s or Super Bowl V).  Then, you factor in that the Super Bowl is the most bet on game every year, the bump probably is closer to 2.5 or 3 points.  So when you factor the public bump, the line of what Vegas actually thinks the game stands at is about 1 or even a half point.
            You know what I take away from the line?  Baltimore is the actual favorite in the systems that Vegas use to accurately predict the outcomes of games.  The bookmakers just know though that if they open with a Ravens’ favorite, the amount of San Francisco money would be so obscene that if the 49ers did win, then Vegas would get absolutely hammered.  I mean, the point of the line is to get even money on both sides, not to accurately predict the outcome.  That was the straw that broke the camel’s back for me as far as which side of the fence I am on.
            Now, the actual football that will be played also favors the Ravens in my opinion.  Baltimore has been winning in the playoffs off of the high-mid range to deep passing game with Flacco’s huge arm, Torrey Smith’s speed, and Anquan Boldin’s unrivaled ball ability in the air.  The average NFL game saw just fewer than three passes of twenty yards or more per team.  Against Denver’s top rated (against the pass as well the deep ball) defense, Baltimore had five plays of 19 yards or more, including 59- and 70-yard touchdowns.  Two weeks ago, Baltimore got a double-digit lead early in the second half and did not need the deep pass as much, but still managed four completions over twenty yards.  In the Ravens’ first playoff game against Indianapolis, Flacco connected on SEVEN 20+ yard completions, along with an 18-yard touchdown.  The Ravens were fifth in the league this season in that stat category. 
            San Francisco is known for its vaunted defense with six All-Pro standouts.  However, only one of their All-Pro’s is a defensive back, and it was a Safety.  The 49ers did not give up many long completions during the season; however the quarterbacks they faced in their division had some of the fewest 20-yard passes of any NFL team (Sam Bradford, Russell Wilson, and Kevin Kolb/John Skelton).  San Francisco also got to face Jason Campbell, Ryan Tannehill, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Christian Ponder, and Mark Sanchez.  That means that eleven of their sixteen games were played against terrible deep ball passers, all in the bottom ten of the league.  Against the top half of the deep ball teams in the league, San Francisco gave up no fewer than four and an average of five per game (25 of their 38 given up where in those five games).  Against more elite passing teams in the playoffs, San Francisco has been burned.  Atlanta completed six passes of 20 or more yards, and Green Bay completed five of 19 or more yards.  With that said, Torrey Smith is faster than Julio Jones and Anquan Boldin is better in the air than James Jones/Greg Jennings.
            Now when San Francisco has the ball, they have a public perception to have an advantage due to their pistol rushing attack and the arm/poise of Colin Kaepernick.  The pistol has been quite successful the past two games, but I see that coming to an end.  Green Bay was wholly unprepared for the rushing attack because San Francisco had used it sparingly in the previous two games.  Atlanta was then prepared to stop Kaepernick, so Jim Harbaugh threw in his genius stroke: the option blocker.  The pistol zone read is similar to the normal shotgun zone read in that the quarterback reads the defensive end: the end crashes, quarterback keeps; end hesitates, give to the back.  What the pistol allows is a lead blocker on the zone read.  Now the Falcons accounted for the blocker, but Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman give the blocker the option on who to block.  Rather than just blindly lead the hole for the back or seal the end for the quarterback, the blocker makes the read as well.  Should the end crash, the blocker than leads the quarterback and takes the linebacker responsible for the QB.  Should the end hesitate, the lead blocker leads through the hole and takes on the filling middle backer.
            Atlanta did not recognize this, causing Frank Gore to run untouched into the end zone twice.  The Ravens are the smartest defense in the league because of the experience between Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and Terrell Suggs.  They will be ready for it, and I suspect they will put a spy on the blocker: the spy will go wherever the lead blocker goes, therefore putting the numbers back in favor of the defense.  Now I know that Jim Harbaugh will have some new wrinkle, but there really is not much more he can add to the pistol that would drastically change the Ravens’ game plan.  The Ravens also adapt better than most teams, as they proved in their playoff wins against Tom Brady and Peyton Manning already this postseason.
            Should the Ravens prevail, Joe Flacco will then have his ninth career playoff victory, good for ninth place all time in terms of quarterbacks.  He is just 28.  Are we sure that Joe Flacco is not discreetly becoming one of the top-5 quarterbacks in the league?  People call Eli Manning elite and one of the best because of his post-season success.  A win Sunday would give Flacco more playoff victories, but he is four years younger.  In Flacco’s last seven post season games, he has fifteen touchdowns and only two interceptions, while completing over 60% of his passes, and almost 250 yards a game.  Of course Flacco benefits from having a great team around him, but outside of the Ravens 2000 Super Bowl run, Baltimore has just one non-Flacco post season win in 12 seasons.  He is also a dropped pass from starting his second Super Bowl.  Maybe I had the quarterback from the 2008 Draft that was going to make The Leap this postseason wrong.
            Lastly, I think Colin Kaepernick will go down.  The Ravens are going to make Kaepernick beat them and his arm has been vastly over-rated.  He made one great pass to Crabtree in the Green Bay game, but he was off target numerous times against Atlanta.  He ended up with a decent game because the Falcons forgot to cover Vernon Davis several times so he just had to loft the ball out there (even then, he limited Davis’ YAC a couple of times).  Baltimore will not make such mistakes.  Kaepernick will then be forced to run the ball, and Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Paul Kruger and Bernard Pollard will make him pay.  There will be an Alex Smith sighting (good odds on the over 2.5 quarterbacks!) and his confidence has been shattered. 
The underdog has covered in eight of the last eleven Super Bowls.  The lower seed is undefeated in the last seven Super Bowls against the spread.  The Ravens’ defense is healthier than it has been all season (especially Haloti Ngata).  Baltimore has deceivingly been more impressive the past two games than San Francisco.  Justin Tucker can handle pressure situations (ask an Aggie) and David Akers has the yips.  Ray Lewis will do his dance with some deer antlers on his helmet, but Flacco will get the MVP with a couple of deep touchdowns to Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin as well as a screen that Ray Rice takes the distance.  Ravens 31-21. 

Prop Bets Coming Sunday!!

Last Week: 0-1-1 (Although I actually bet on the Falcons at +4.5)
Playoffs: 5-4-1
Overall: 149-108-7