Another solid week to stretch me to
a profit at almost 20 games above .500, so I’m hitting at a 55% clip. Stupidly, I’ve only been playing select games
so I have not been taking advantage of my hot streak. Of course, the simple solution would be to
bet every single game, but I think I am due for a regression week back toward
the middle. Betting all 16 games a week
is too risky, so I will not focus more on the best bets that I see of the
slate.
JAGUARS +3 over Texans
Thursday night home-dogs are an
amazing 6-1, including winning the last 6.
It has become the biggest lock of the season.
REDSKINS +4 over Chiefs
Another home underdog, and the
Chiefs are reeling. RG3 claims that they
are not a 10-loss team so he has the chance to put his money where his mouth
is.
Vikings +7 over RAVENS
I am still not sold on this
Baltimore team. They got by on the
scrape of their teeth last week and the Vikings have now figured out that
Adrian Peterson is really good when he gets 30+ carries. Moreover, in my big-money fantasy league
playoffs in which I am the first seed, I am destined to lose to AP in the first
round.
Browns +10.5 over PATRIOTS
New England damn near lost to a
horrible Texans team and the Browns have actually been halfway decent with
Jason Campbell in at quarterback. Josh
Gordon is on fire, so I do not even think Aqib Talib can slow him down that
much.
Jets+3 over RAIDERS
This Jets team is the epitome of
the opposite theory. They looked
horrible last week, so I expect them to bounce back and play well this week. The Raiders actually looked good last week
considering they were on the road for a short week against a possible playoff
team. I.e. they will look terrible this
week.
Colts +7 over BENGALS
I might be falling for the Vegas
sucker bet of the week, but I just do not see how a division leader can be
favored a touchdown over another division leader with the same record. Moreover, Cincinnati is down some of their
best defensive players and Andrew Luck is due for a huge game.
Lions +3.5 over EAGLES
I might be more interested in the
total in this game (54) as the frigid weather and natural icy-grass will slow
down Bush/McCoy. Anyway, the Eagles were
completely bailed out by every big 4th quarter call going their way,
taking away a touchdown and interception from Arizona and helping Philly get a
score. Let’s look at who the Eagles have
actually beaten: The Redskins which RG3 has not been anywhere near as good as
last year; Eli and the Giants when he was in full suck mode of 0-6; rookie
backup Sean Glennon and Tampa Bay; rookie backup Matt McGloin and the Raiders;
rookie backup Scott Tolzien and the Packers; then they get bailed out against
Arizona when Carson Palmer played like bad Carson Palmer. I think they will be exposed this week.
Dolphins +3.5 over STEELERS
I thought for sure this line would
be flipped the other way, so I feel like there is a touchdown worth of value
here. The Dolphins could win this game
and have the inside track to the last wild card with two easier games against
the Bills/Jets left.
Bills +3.5 over BUCCANEERS
After last week’s pitiful
performance I just cannot take Tampa Bay.
It feels like a field goal-game, so I might be getting the half point of
value for free.
Titans +13 over BRONCOS
Denver’s defense has not lived up
to their offense this season and it will cost them in the playoffs. The defense let New England back in and win
the game, and then nearly did the same thing with Kansas City last week. It will be another cold day, so Peyton won’t
get to 50, meaning I think the Titans can keep it close enough.
CARDINALS -5 over Rams
This has got to be the ultimate
toss-up bet of the season. It is in the
“Vegas Zone” between 4 and 6, the public is split completely even 50/50 on
picking it, and both are in the middle of the pack in the Las Vegas Hilton
SuperContest pool. I think I will go
with Arizona, as Carson Palmer has been good Carson at home more often than
not.
Giants +3.5 over CHARGERS
70% of the country betting is
taking San Diego, and the LVH SuperContest’s biggest consensus this week was
San Diego over the Giants. What’s
that? Nobody believes in the Giants to
win? They will most definitely win. Upset of the week.
Seahawks +3 over 49ERS
Seattle has looked quite dominant
of late, while San Francisco has only looked good against the hapless
Redskins. People are making it to be a
marquee matchup, but Seattle will make it look like a blowout.
Falcons +3 over PACKERS
Can Matt Ryan put together
back-to-back solid games? I am not sure
he will have to with Matt Flynn behind center for the Packers. Not much info to go on since the line really
just got settled this morning, so I will take the dog.
Panthers +4 over SAINTS
In my upset of the week part deux,
I think the Panthers manhandle the Saints.
Not because of any betting trend, or football analysis. No, the Saints will play terrible because I
am the least lucky person with the TLF and in my big-money league playoffs,
I have Brees and Jimmy Graham. I am
sorry to anyone else who has these two in the playoffs as well I have screwed
you over.
BEARS +2 over Cowboys
The other home dog of the weekend,
the Bears demolished Dallas last season.
There is also something at work with Chicago that no one will talk
about… they are a better offense with Josh McCown than with Jay Cutler. He leads the league in QBR (a stat I think is
dumb, over-skewed toward the running quarterback and does not factor in actual
passing numbers enough for the passing position, nonetheless he is leading it)
and McCown utilizes his options better.
Cutler tended to get locked into Marshall, forcing interceptions and
missing out on big plays. McCown has
made Alshon Jeffrey a fantasy superstar and given Matt Forte his best season
yet.
Top Picks of the Week:
This is where I will point out the
games I am actually going to bet on.
Redskins +4, Colts +7, Dolphins
+3.5, Giants +3.5, Seahawks +3, Panthers +4
10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Seahawks +13, Panthers +14,
Lions/Eagles UNDER 65
Others I Like:
Giants +13.5, Chiefs/Redskins UNDER
55, Broncos/Titans OVER 39, Redskins +14, Colts +17, Bengals/Colts UNDER 56
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 105-86-6
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