Tuesday, July 17, 2012

The Mavs Off-Season So Far


            I, like almost every single other Mavs’ Fan, was completely lost, disgruntled and upset by the first week of the NBA free agency period.  However, Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson have absolutely dominated the last ten days.  The ultimate scenario for the past year had been to acquire both Deron Williams and Dwight Howard via free agency with all of the cap space built by Dallas.  Howard nixed that plan by re-upping for another year with the Magic, so the plan then had a singular focus: Deron.  As much as some like to just spout out, “free agents just don’t come to Dallas” as the reasoning behind Deron spurning the Mavericks, I firmly believe that had the Nets not acquired Joe Johnson he would be playing in the AAC next season.  It was not that the Mavs’ front office did a bad job… more of that the Nets’ did a better job.

            So then we all sat, wondering what the hell the Mavericks were going to do.  Would they tank the season, in hopes of getting a high lottery pick?  Would they sign some spares for 1-year deals and hope to lure Dwight, Andrew Bynum or Chris Paul next summer? Would they do the blasphemous deed of trading the German Savior?  So then that’s when I saw very plainly the best option and tweeted the following:

“July 11th: @Tomlin3: Ok, missed on Deron.. But why haven’t the Mavs at least signed OJ Mayo, Raymond Felton and Kaman, the last two to big 1-year deals???”

It seemed so simple: grab the best Center, Shooting Guard and Point Guard still available and then combined with Dirk, Marion, Wright, West, the rookies you have a very respectable 3 or 4 seed that Dirk could work with.  Then when it seemed as if Elton Brand was an option, I completely was on board with adding him as a 6th man/backup big.

            Then the news broke that Kaman would be coming to the Mavericks.  Out of what I wanted the team to do, this seemed the most likely with the German national team connection between Kaman and Dirk.  The next move was the one that shows how much more Donnie Nelson and Mark Cuban know about what they are doing than all of us.  Whenever Indiana was serious about trading Dallas their starting point guard and best wing-defender/spot up 3-point shooter, I had to agree with the AP that it had to of been hard to not laugh, thinking it was a joke.  Especially just for a guy that was a FREE AGENT.  The Pacers could have just signed Mahimi away, but somehow Cubes/Donnie got back a starting point guard and 7th man for a free agent who would have been the 8th or 9th guy off of the bench (I’ll get more to analyzing Collison and Jones in a bit).  Then the Mavs won the Brand amnesty auction at a very reasonable $2.1 million.  Finally this morning, I woke up and checked my Twitter driving into work and what do I see?  The final piece: Mayo agreeing to a deal with Dallas.

            Very rarely do we see our favorite sports’ teams do exactly (in this case even better than I thought) what we want/think they should do.  In this case it actually happened.  Now I want to back up the Dallas front office because of all the recent t-shirt fans who like to blame everything on the two guys most responsible for bringing Dallas a title (not named Dirk of course).  So let’s compare the team that the Mavericks’ would most likely have today if they decided to resign the guys from the title team, as to the team as it stands now.

            If the Mavericks would have resigned Tyson Chandler last summer to the 4 year/$60+ million he was looking for, then they would have had to just resign everyone since there would be no cap flexibility in the near future.  So then you’re talking about re-signing DeShawn Stevenson, J.J. Barea, and Caron Butler to about what they all got from other teams, 2/$5, 4/$18, and 3/$24m respectively.  Whether or not that team could have competed with OKC or the Spurs this year is another argument that I will gladly win against anyone willing, but Dallas would most likely be in the same predicament now regarding re-signing Kidd for 3/$9.1m, Terry 3/$15m and Ian Mahimi 4/16m.  So when combined with Dirk’s remaining 2/$43m and Marion’s 2/$18m, is a total of about $77 million.  Now if Dallas did go this route, would they have used their amnesty on Haywood? I think it might be 50/50 considering the lack of other options, so if they did not there would be another $6.3m from him and $2.5 from Roddy/DoJo for a team salary of $86 million, just over $4 million more than the champion Heat.  Think about that for a second: Dirk, Jet, Tyson, Kidd, Marion, Butler, Stevenson, Barea, Mahimi, Haywood, Roddy B, DoJo for $86 million.

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Yes I know that team won a title, but that was a perfect storm of good matchups, timely shooting, timely bad opponent’s shooting, and two teams (OKC and Miami) just not quite ready to take over yet.  There’s no way in hell that 12-man roster could beat the Heat or Thunder in a 7-game series this year or next.

            So let’s now compare that heart of the two rosters starting with the biggest “disparity” (or only as everyone sees it):

Starting Center: 2010/11 Tyson Chandler vs. 2012/13 Chris Kaman

            Let’s start off with a blind test, because the majority of the difference in opinion betweens these two players comes from how they look when they play (athletic black guy dunking on people, blocking shots into the stands vs. the goofy white dude with a beard who makes baby hooks and catches his own blocks).  Last year, one of these two average 14 points, 10 rebounds and 2 blocks per 36 minutes and the other averaged 11 points, 11.4 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per 36 minutes.  Guess which player had which averages…. In case you are bad with context clues, Kaman actually average more points AND blocks per 36 minutes.  He played less than Chandler because of injuries and New Orleans tanking for the Unibrow, but their overall averages (11.3/9.9/1.4 for Tyson vs. 13.1/7.7/1.6 for Kaman) are not that different either.  (All of these stats are viewable at basketball-reference.com should you not believe me)

            Let’s look at their overall careers too:

           

PPG
RPG
BPG
FT %
Chris Kaman
11.9
8.3
1.4
74%
Tyson Chandler
8.6
8.9
1.4
63%



Let’s also look at their best season at each:

PPG
RPG
BPG
FT %
Chris Kaman
18.5
12.7
2.8
79%
Tyson Chandler
11.8
12.4
1.8
73%






Statistically, Kaman is a better player.  Even when you look at their best seasons, Kaman actually put most of his together, as he averaged 15.7 ppg, 12.7 rpg, and 2.8 bpg in the same season, while Tyson chandler has only averaged a double/double once in his career, in 2007/08. 

            Now I’m not saying Kaman is a better player.  The eye test does at least tell you that statistics do not mean everything, and advanced metrics also give Chandler the edge.  However, it is really not by much:

Dreb%
Treb%
PER
Chris Kaman
23.8
16.3
14.5
Tyson Chandler
24.1
18.3
15.8

 Their rebounding percentages are similar and their PER (Player Efficiency Rating) are close as well.  The average PER for the NBA is 15, with LeBron having the high of 27.2.  The PER favors wing players so the average for centers is probably more around 11 or 12.  So if all of these statistics point to the players being of similar value, then why the common perception that Tyson is far and away the better option?

            One factor is injuries: Kaman has been hurt for a portion of the past few seasons.  However, Tyson Chandler was the injury concern until his season with Dallas and he even missed some time in each of the past 4 seasons.  The next argument is the generic, “But Tyson was the Defensive Player of the Year” ignorance.  To that, I have to say that he only won it because Dwight Howard got hurt, and the media does not want to give LeBron every award (I DARE someone to argue that LeBron is not the best defensive player after the clinic he put on the last 7 games of the playoffs).  The award is about the perception of Tyson, when really how far did he get his Knicks team in the playoffs? You know, the team that has not one, but TWO superstars? Oh, the same level as Dallas last year?  Once again, I’m not saying Kaman is a better option than Tyson Chandler.  I do however, firmly believe that the difference between the two is about 2 wins a season, if not less, if you want to use baseball terms.  If you put Kaman in Chandler’s spot in 2011, I’m not so sure that they Mavs don’t win it all still.  The kicker is Kaman is only six months older than Chandler, with 180 less games on his NBA odometer (due to Tyson coming out of high school, not injuries.)  The center is just not as big of a factor anymore either.  Of the final four teams in the playoffs last season, the starting centers were: Serge Ibaka, Kevin Garnett, Boris Diaw, and Chris Bosh.  All are power forwards playing center.  This small difference will not make or break the Mavericks.



Second Scoring Option/Shooting Guard: 2010/11 Jason Terry vs. 2012/2013 O.J. Mayo

            I promise the rest of the comparisons will not be as long, but I just had to make a point about the annoying perception that Tyson Chandler was the savior, when in fact, he was the 4th best player on the championship team.  The 3rd best player on that team was Jason Terry, whom the Mavs let walk away to the Celtics.  My feelings about Jason Terry have already been shown here.  I’m sure we will be seeing a Grantland piece by Bill Simmons’ issuing the same frustrations within the first 15 games of next season.  What the Mavericks just did by signing Mayo was upgrade their second scoring option significantly. 

Mayo has been stuck in a bad situation the past two seasons in Memphis.  He is a creator with the ball who can get his own shot whenever he wants.  The Grizzlies have become a low-post dominant team with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, and used Mayo off the bench to add defensive depth to the starting lineup to counter the defensive liabilities at their other two perimeter spots.  With Shawn Marion sharing the wing in Dallas, I expect Mayo to start and thrive with the Mavericks.  In Mayo’s first two seasons in the league, he started every game he played in and averaged 18 points, 3 assists, and 3.3 rebounds a game while shooting 45% from the field and 38.5 percent from 3’s.  For comparison, Jet has averaged 15.4 points, 3.8 assists and 2.2 rebounds a game while shooting 44% from the field and 37% from 3’s the past two seasons.  Even the last two seasons with Mayo playing less, he still put up 16.3 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3 assists per 36 minutes.  His shooting percentages dropped, but that can be attributed to the fact that there were no other perimeter shooters on the floor with him the majority of the time.

Not only are Mayo’s numbers slightly better than Terry’s, he is ten years younger, more effective off the dribble, and not a complete defensive burden.  Mayo can finish at the rack and is a solid 4 inches taller than Terry giving a more physical prowess to an increasingly bigger position in the league.  Mayo also is a durable player, only missing 11 games in his first 4 season, 10 due to a suspension over a supplement in an energy drink and 1 due to bronchitis.  This Mayo signing will probably end up being the most beneficial long-term, because he has the potential to be a superstar in this league.  With Rick Carlisle coaching him, Mayo finally has a firm but informative teacher to mold his game.  We also do not have to ever watch Jet take a terrible momentum-killing three-pointer again. 



Point Guard: 2010/11 Jason Kidd vs. 2012/13 Darren Collison

            This has to be an even more obvious upgrade than the last comparison to the people with knowledge of players outside of the Mavericks.  Jason Kidd is one of the best point guards of all-time and he left it all out there during the 2011 playoffs.  However, I think that was all he had left to give.  The league is trending toward a quicker, more scoring point guard: Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Deron Williams, Chris Paul and so on.  Rajon Rondo is really the only non-scoring point guard left in the elite.  Darren Collison fits that bill perfected, although he has slipped under the radar.  I even forgot to add him into the group of point guards who are just on the outside of the elite, or just on that next tier down.  He is a career 12.1 points and 5.2 assists guy who can get to the basket at will due to his quickness.  His shooting percentages are even more impressive as he shoots 45% from the field and 36.3 from 3’s.  Compare these numbers to Jason Kidd’s over the last couple of seasons at 7 points, 7 assists, 40% from the field and 34.5% from 3’s.  It may seem like a downgrade as far as assists go, but Collison has never had a Dirk Nowitzki to get easy perimeter assists off of jump shots.

            More important than the numbers, the Mavericks have injected youth into the team by replacing the 34-year old Terry and 39-year old Kidd with two 24-year old players.  After the Mavericks sign their rookies, their average age will be 28, closer to the youngest teams in the league rather than the oldest.  Collison also will provide some help against the quicker point guards in the league, where it used to be Shawn Marion having to switch over guarding out of position.



Wing Defender/Spot-Up 3-Point Shooter: 2010/11 DeShawn Stevenson vs. 2012/13 Dahntay Jones

            DeShawn Stevenson brought some toughness to the perimeter for the title team, a role Dahntay Jones can gill in nicely.  Jones, an inch taller than Stevenson, is the same age and more athletic/strong.  He can guard any perimeter position and will be a good backup to split time with Shawn Marion.  Jones is a career 35.5% 3-point shooter opposed to DeShawn Stevenson at 33.7%.  Jones is only getting better too, as he shot 43% from behind the arc last season.  The players are very similar, but Jones is a slightly better shooter which will benefit Dallas better now with penetrators Collison and Mayo.



Backup Big: 2010/11 Brendan Haywood vs. 2012/13 Elton Brand

            After looking at the statistics, I am even more excited about this upgrade.  Brand is not the All-Star he used to be, but by no means is washed up.  I feel like he has been in the league for forever, yet he is only 33 years old (a year older than Haywood).  Last year Brand averaged 11 points and 7.2 rebounds, much lower than his career averages of 18.3 and 9.4.  However, he was well rested on a deep Philadelphia team with a coach who also wanted to not wear out his aging big man.  His per-36 averages last season were a solid 13.7 points and 8.9 rebounds.  Haywood during the championship season had per-36 averages of 8.7 points and 10.2 rebounds. 

            Brand’s back-to-the-basket game might not complement Dirk in the best way, but I’m sure Dirk can find a way to make it work.  Kaman and Brand worked well together in Los Angeles, even bringing the Clippers to the playoffs for the first time in years.  Another upgrade that I’m looking forward to is not seeing Haywood’s 47% from the line, as Brand is a career 74% free-throw shooter.



Bench: 2010/11 J.J. Barea, Roddy B., Dominique Jones vs. 2012/13 Vince Carter, Brandon Wright, Roddy B., Dominique Jones, Jae Crowder, Jared Cunningham



            While Barea did have a big hand in a few key games in the playoff run of 2011, I was never a fan of his contributions and have longed believe Roddy B could provide the same type of effort.  Moreover, Roddy and DoJo each have two more years under their belts and from the first couple of summer league games Jones seems to be finding his scoring touch again.  Vince Carter can still break out old-school VC moments when the team is in need of them.  Brandon Wright provides another athletic big to provide a change of pace to the bigger/slower Dirk/Brand/Kaman.  Crowder and Cunningham probably won’t have an impact now, but should any of the perimeter core get hurt, I trust those two just as much as I would have in 2011 with Roddy and Jones. 



So there it is, a full player-by-player comparison of the title team of 2011 to the current Mavericks’ roster.  I know I didn’t compare Dirk/Marion, but neither seemed to lose much over last year and I fully expect a strong bounce back year from Dirk.  To recap, I’m giving an edge to the title team at center, but I’ll take the current team at shooting guard (starter and backup), point guard, backup big man and the bench is basically a wash.  This current team definitely has a scoring advantage with Kaman/Collison/Mayo being a better scoring trio than Chandler/Kidd/Terry, which will take the defensive pressure off of Dirk.

Once again, I’m not saying that this team is now the odds-on favorite to win the title next year.  However, I’m not counting them out now.  I’ll still put the Heat, Thunder, and Spurs as the top 3 teams in the league…. But I cannot safely say that any other team is really that much better than the Mavericks right now.  I’ll have to see how well Nash fits in with the Lakers; as well as how the Grizzlies can handle not having Mayo’s scoring punch.  I don’t know if Blake Griffin’s knee will hold out for the Clippers or if they can continue to progress.  The Knicks are in complete disarray and the Celtics have just gotten older.  The 76ers/Pacers each lost key pieces to this Mavericks’ team.  So which of those teams is really a clearly better team?  If I had to put a seed on Dallas today, I would give them a 3-5 range, with 3 being more of a possibility than 5.  Before you get up in arms, let’s remember the title team was a 3 seed.

What I can do and safely say is that right now, going into the 2012/2013 NBA season, I am more confident about this Dallas Mavericks team’s championship chances than I was about the 2010/2011 team.  This is a younger, more athletic team, who will be just as hungry with only a few players who have won it all before.  Most importantly, Donnie Nelson and Mark Cuban were able to orchestrate all of this without sacrificing their ultimate goal of cap space next summer.  As of now, the team will be just at the cap level of $58 million, depending on the Mayo contract, with about $15 million in space for next summer. 

Dallas has also made it more attractive to the likes of Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum: instead of just Dirk, those two big guys could be thinking a Dirk-Collison-Mayo trio is something they would like to join.  We will have to see how well they mesh together this season, I just know now though that Cuban/Nelson had a backup plan, and it has worked out about as well as can be after missing on Deron.  No one can say that the front office did not try or was not prepared.  I mean, a year from now we could be looking at a starting lineup of Collison-Mayo-a suddenly emergent Jae Crowder-Dirk-Dwight Howard…. I’ll stop before getting ahead of myself.