Sunday, November 25, 2012

NFL Week 12 Picks


With the holiday I was not able to get around to a full picks, so I’ll do a quick run down.   I was 2-1 on Turkey Day, but should have been 3-0 if not for the stupidest challenge rule ever instituted.  What’s to stop a coach from throwing the red flag on an “unchallengeable” play when he knows that it would be over turned to his team’s detriment? Anyway, here are my selections for today.

Raiders +9 over BENGALS
The Bengals are on a roll, but 9 points is too much.

BROWNS +2 over Steelers
A home dog playing against Charlie Batch? Thank you.

COLTS -3 over Bills
Andrew Luck at home is money in the bank.

CHIEFS +10 over Broncos
Corey and my big money fantasy team is in our championship for $1K this week, and we are starting Peyton Manning and Ronnie Hillman… so I am sure that they will have bad days.

JAGUARS +4 over Titans
Why in the world are the Titans giving 4 points on the road???  Actually… Vegas probably knows something…

BEARS -6 over Vikings
The guy Corey and I are playing against has the Chicago Defense, so they are sure to score a couple of touchdowns.

BUCS +1 over Falcons
Our other quarterback (2 QB League) is Matt Ryan.

DOLPHINS +3 over Seahawks
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks suck on the road.  And Corey and I are sitting Reggie Bush so he will have a monster game.

Ravens PICK over CHARGERS
I think San Diego might have given up on the season after last week.

SAINTS +2 over 49ers
New Orleans is on a roll, and the 49ers had a short week with travel.

CARDINALS -1 over Rams
I have literally no idea who will win this game.

GIANTS -3 over Packers
New York will stretch away from Dallas/Washington.

Panthers -3 over EAGLES
Philly is done and now out their best two offensive players.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Panthers +7, Broncos PK, Colts/Bills over 40


Other Options:
Raiders +19, BUCS +11, Rams +11, Packers +13, Raiders/Bengals over 40, Ravens +10

This week: 2-1

Last Week: 8-5

Overall: 89-66-3

Friday, November 16, 2012

NFL Week 11 Picks


Not a good week last week, although I feel like if Cutler/Big Ben would not have gotten hurt, I could have squeaked out a .500 week.  The trends were decent as the home underdogs went 2-2 against the spread, while the touchdown underdogs were 3-1.  I definitely had a few teams (Jets, Dolphins, Panthers) over-rated, and under-rated a few more (Ravens, Seahawks, Patriots).  I will try to correct that his week.

REDSKINS -3 over Eagles
The start of the Nick Foles era in Philly, and the Eagles’ fans are going to get a rude awakening.  I will take the number 2 overall pick in the draft over a third rounder.  The Eagles are probably done, and might just win one more game this season (in Dallas to ruin their slim playoff hopes).

LIONS +3 over Packers
The Packers are absolutely decimated by injuries and are asking a little bit too much of Aaron Rodgers.  Now while if you want to ask too much of someone, might as well be the best player on the planet.  With that said, the Lions need this game significantly more than the Packers.  A loss could end their season as the rest of the rest of their games are against playoff caliber competition.  Calvin Johnson has to get some touchdowns at some point right?

Cardinals +10 over FALCONS
These double-digit lines have been killing me.  The Saints did show some of Atlanta’s weakness, while they showed their own Red Zone issues.  Those issues are not good against a stout defense, so I think Arizona can keep this one close.

Bucs -1 over PANTHERS
It is time to start believing in Tampa Bay.  Four wins in their past five games with just the fluky loss to New Orleans.  Only three teams have not lost a game by more than a touchdown: Atlanta, New England and Tampa Bay.  Josh Freeman is looking like a star.  If the Bucs can go 2-1 over the next three, be sitting at 7-5 going into a stretch of three games against sub-.500 teams and a last game against the Falcons who might not need it…

Browns +8 over COWBOYS
Let’s not kid ourselves; Dallas was lucky to get out of Philly.  That was a close game against a bad team with its backup quarterback until a fortunate string of defensive/special teams touchdowns.  The Browns have been in every game they have played this year, surprisingly.  I think they can keep it close.

RAMS -3 over Jets
I am done with the Jets.  Just finished.  Next.

Colts +9 over PATRIOTS
Both teams are 6-3, and have very similar point differentials over the past four games.  The past four games are what really matter, since Andrew Luck is now finding his groove.  I think these two teams are closer than the line says, so I will take the touchdown’s worth of value.

Jaguars +16 over TEXANS
I am not sure if any NFL team should be favored by over two touchdowns over another.  Even if it is one of the top 3 teams against one of the 3 worst, and the better team is at home.  I just refuse to bet against a team getting 16 points… but I will tease the hell out of them.

Bengals -3.5 over CHIEFS
I know I should go the other way, in line with the opposite theory.  Cincinnati played their best game of the season (possibly best game possible).  Can they do it 2 weeks in a row?.....
CHIEFS +3.5 over Bengals
I cannot give more than a field goal, to the Bengals on the road.  I will hopefully get that half point of value.

Saints -4 over RAIDERS
New Orleans is on a roll and Drew Brees is in the zone again.  Those two things are bad for the Oakland defense.  I still think they line is a little too high, but I will not be betting this game’s line… I will be abusing the over.

Chargers +8 over BRONCOS
I know I should probably believe in Denver’s blowout ability in this game, but I do not want to leave this one double-digit line on the table.  San Diego can keep this game close… I think.

Ravens -3 over STEELERS
With no Big Ben in the lineup, I think the Ravens will win the game, so I will take the small line.  Byron Leftwich is not terrible, but he is still probably worse than Mark Sanchez making him the worst quarterback starting a game on Sunday.

49ERS +5 over Bears
This was the line Monday morning when I jumped on it, so I will go with it.  There is not a lineup on my site right now, but I figure it will settle around San Fran -3 or -4.  I would probably take them there, too, since Jason Campbell did not look good the other night.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Texans -6, Saints/Raiders Over 44, Falcons Pick ‘Em

Others I Like:
Redskins +7, Packers/Lions Over 42, Cowboys +2, Rams/Jets Under 49, Steelers/Ravens Under 50, Bucs/Panthers Over 38


Last Week: 6-8

Overall: 81-61-3

Friday, November 9, 2012

NFL Week 10 Picks


Not a strong showing last week, with an under-.500 record and a couple of my misses were big misses (why did I pick against the team I have thought is the best overall all year???).  My teasers continued to be strong, going 8-1.  The trends were murderous to gamblers last week, with home underdogs finished 1-4 against the spread, and touchdown-underdogs going winless, 0-3 against the number.  The NFC did bounce back with a 3-0 inter-conference record, but the Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest trends were no help at all.  I am going to hope that last week was more of an aberration and not the norm now, and continue to go with the analyzed trends.  There are 3 double-digit spreads and four home-underdogs in play, not to mention five inter-conference matchups.  I Tweeted the Colts’ victory last night, to get a solid start on my week.  Indy is a team that might need to be ridden, as the Chuckstrong factor might be the strongest motivational tactic yet.

PATRIOTS -11 over Bills

New England is 2-2 against the spread when favored by a touchdown or more, so they might be an exception to the trend.  The Bills also suck, and I have to start Ryan Fitzpatrick on A Rodg’s bye week, so sorry Buffalo I have doomed you.

VIKINGS +2 over Lions

For some reason, my guy has not had this line up all week.  Vegas has Detroit as a 2 point favorite on the road, which I think the line should be switched.  While the Lions did look good last week, they were playing the Jaguars who the Colts then demolished last night.  The line probably has something to do with the fact that the Vikings lost by ten to Seattle last week and Detroit beat the Seahawks by 4 the week before.  However, Minnesota played IN Seattle, where the Seahawks are a completely different team.  AP is starting to get in a groove and I think he has another monster day.

BENGALS +4 over Giants

Are the Giants really any good?  They are 6-3, but let’s look at their wins.  They beat Dallas by a finger, in a game that the Cowboys tried to hand to them.  It took a last second touchdown to beat the Redskins at home.  They had to come back from a double-digit deficit to beat the Browns.  It took a last second touchdown to beat the Bucs, also at home.  They blew out Carolina, the worst team in the NFC, and San Francisco on the road.  I see one quality win and then wins over sub-.500 teams.  They have two losses to sub-.500 teams as well (Cowboys and Eagles).  I think the 49ers’ game was more of a mental thing.  I’ll take the points.

BUCS -3 over Chargers

Tampa Bay won by double-digits for the second straight week last week, and their offense is firing on all cylinders.  The Bucs have averaged 36 points a game the last four games since their bye week, and still do not have a bad loss.  San Diego’s only wins over their last 7 weeks were both to Kansas City, the worst team in a decade.  Josh Freeman will probably have a monster game since I picked Fitzpatrick over him to start this week.

PANTHERS +4 over Broncos

Denver is 4-0 as favorites against the spread this year, but I think Carolina kind of figured out how to win last week.  They need to pound the ball as much as possible with their four different rushing threats.  The Broncos let the Bengals hang around last week and barely covered at the end.  So I think the Broncos win this one by a field goal, with Carolina keeping it close by controlling the clock/ball.

DOLPHINS -6 over Titans

When Tennessee loses, they get whooped.  Outside of a close loss to the Colts, in the Titans’ other five losses, they have lost by an average of over 25 points a game.  Do I think they will beat Miami on the road? No.  So I do not think they can cover.  Miami still has looked like a really good team since the second week of the season, with no losses by more than a field goal.

Raiders +8 over RAVENS

Since losing LaDarius Webb and Ray Lewis, the Ravens got absolutely annihilated by the Texans, and squeaked by the pitiful Browns with a misleading final score.  If Cleveland had any sort of Red Zone Offense, they win that game easily.  I do not know if Baltimore should be giving more than a touchdown against anyone.

SAINTS +3 over Falcons

I think that Atlanta will lose one of their next couple of games, and it will be the best thing for them (and my fantasy team with Matt Ryan/Roddy White).  Over their past six games, only one win was by more than a touchdown, and none of the teams have even a .500 record.  For as bad as I thought the Saints were at the beginning of the season, they have only one loss by a touchdown or more.  One of their losses was in overtime to the hapless Chiefs, which seems fluky.  Another was a one-point loss on the road to Green Bay.  Then they lost to RG3 in week 1, when their interim, interim coach was getting used to head coaching and no one knew how the Redskins would use Griffin.  Now the Saints are rolling, and I think they get the upset here.

Jets +7 over SEAHAWKS

I am going with the opposite theory here.  The Jets looked way worse than they are in their last game, and Seattle looked better than they are.  This pushed this line to a touchdown, which seems too high.  The Jets are also coming off of a bye week, so expect some sort of Tebow trick up their sleeves. 

EAGLES +1.5 over Cowboys

The Eagles opened as a 2.5 point favorite Monday morning before their loss to the Saints, and that line has now moved a full 4 points the other way.  These teams are both fatally flawed on the offensive line, forcing both quarterbacks into killer interceptions and fumbles.  The Cowboys have a better defense, but the Lincoln Financial Field gives Dallas fits.  I would say this is more of a Pick ‘Em game, so I will take the extra point and a half.

Rams +11.5 over 49ERS

This line just seems a few points too high.  The Rams have been playing progressively worse their last 5 games, while the 49ers were playing better.  Both teams are coming off of a bye, so I think it will help the Rams more.  St. Louis also is getting Danny Amendola back to help give Sam Bradford an underneath relief valve.  San Francisco will win, but the Rams have high potential for a backdoor cover.

BEARS -1 over Texans

I went against them last week and will not do it again.  This team is really good.  They may not have Charles Tillman, but their defense is pretty deep so I do not think it will have that big of an effect.  I think that the Chicago defense will smother the zone-blocking and running game of Houston, and Urlacher will be in beast-mode all night.

STEELERS -12.5 over Chiefs

Pittsburgh has won all three of its home games by an average of 11 points, and none of those teams were nearly as bad as Kansas City.  The Chiefs have still yet to lead a game in regulation, with their one win being by a field goal in overtime.  Pittsburgh is starting to pick up steam with three wins in a row against solid teams so maybe I was wrong about them.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Patriots -1, 49ers -1.5, Steelers -2.5

Others I Like:

Falcons/Saints Over 43, Bills/Patriots over 42, Chargers/Bucs Over 37; Saints +13, Seahawks/Jets Under 49, Raiders +18

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 6-7

Overall: 75-53-3