Friday, April 27, 2012

NBA Championship Odds


With the NBA playoffs starting tomorrow, I thought I’d revisit the Championship Odds of each of the remaining 16 playoff teams with the Vegas odds for them to win, and my own handicapped number. 



1.       Miami Heat, 46-20, East #2

Vegas odds: +200;  My odds: +300

Once again I was torn between the Heat and the Thunder, but I had to settle on the Heat more of what I will talk about in the Thunder’s section.  I hate them as much as the rest of the non-bandwagon joining community, but I can’t deny the mission that the Heat have been on.  The Mavs unleashed the sleeping beast last year and I think there’s no doubt that the Heat will get to the Finals should they get past the Knicks (which I’d put them at 1:5 that they will).  I’d have to raise the Vegas number strictly based on saying any team is a 2 to 1 favorite going into the playoffs is too high.



2.      Los Angeles Lakers, 41-25, West #3

Vegas odds: 1000;   My odds: +400

The addition of Ramon Sessions clears up their most glaring weakness, and Kobe is starting to revert to the 2008 Kobe that comes through in the clutch.  The intimidation factor that the World Peace elbow brought to the Thunder single handedly changed where I rank both teams.  Not only did World Peach put the seed of doubt that he could do anything at any moment on the court into the minds of Oklahoma City, but it helped the Lakers win the game and get the three seed, whereas they would have been the 6th if they lost.  The interior presence of Bynum and Gasol is too much for anyone they will play until San Antonio, and Kobe against the Spurs is a lock for a 38 ppg series.



3.      Oklahoma City Thunder, 47-19, West #2

Vegas odds: +275;   My odds: +425

Although they have the deeper team, with the better superstar  (of the moment) and better bench, I have to give way to the experience of the Lakers and the psychological state of the Thunder.  What was troubling most of all about that Lakers/Thunder game, was how much Russell Westbrook started dominating the ball in crunch time.  If someone doesn’t tell him that he has Kevin Durant on his team then this team could lose in the first round (so no one better fucking tell him, let him keep pounding the ball flat while Durant shoots nothing but disapproving looks at him rather than jumpers!!!).



4.      Indiana Pacers, 42-24, East #3

Vegas odds: +3000;  My odds: +600

As I said in my last rankings, I love this team.  They are the most balanced team in the league with eight guys averaging 9 points a game and all five starters in double figures.  Leandro Barbosa is playing like he used to for the Suns as the Microwave Scorer off the bench and Roy Hibbert is the best all-around center left in the East.  Most of all, and why I have them high, is their team rebounding.  If a team is going to upset the Heat, they will need phenomenal team rebounding to keep LeBron off of the offensive glass, and get second chance points against whatever pile of garbage is starting at center for the Heat that night.  The Pacers have seven guys with 3 or more rebounds, including their point guard, and four with 5 or more.  The length of George at the 2 and Granger at the 3 gives the Pacers a good a chance as anyone to beat the Heat.  Not to mention, they have the Howard-less Magic as the easiest first round opponent of any team.



5.      Memphis Grizzlies, 41-25, West #4

Vegas odds: +2000;  My odds: +650

I have to give the slight edge to the Pacers, even though I think Memphis would win in a 7-game series.  The teams have a similar theme of a balanced and deep attack, but the Grizzlies have a much tougher road to navigate to get to the finals.  With that said, I have them higher than San Antonio because they have the confidence to beat them in the second round.  I mean, last year they did it, and that was without their leading scorer.  I like their strength inside with Gasol/Randolph to help get them past the Clippers in the first round into the Spurs series.



6.      San Antonio Spurs, 50-16, West #1

Vegas odds: +350;  My odds: +700

I definitely sold short on the Spurs at mid-season, but I can’t under-rate the addition of Stephen Jackson, as well as the progress of their younger role players.  Tony Parker is having his best season yet, and Many Ginobli is turning it on at just the right time.  The Big Fundamental is plugging away like a robot.  If the Spurs can avoid the Grizzlies and Lakers, then I really like them to make it to the Finals.  As we saw last year, it’s all about making the series, and then it’s a coin flip. 

7.      Chicago Bulls, 50-16, East #1

Vegas odds: +275;  My odds:  +750

I’m just not sold on the Bulls.  Derrick Rose seems far from 100%, Richard Hamilton has shown flashes of the old Rip, but nothing sustained; Joakim Noah is just a douche.  I honestly would not be surprised by a first round knockout courtesy of the 76ers.  With that said, I can’t put them too low because Derrick Rose could start doing Derrick Rose-things and the Heat could get upset before the Bulls would have to play them.

8.      Dallas Mavericks, 36-30, West #7

Vegas odds: +3000;  My odds: +800

30-1? For the defending champions? Sign me up.  I am significantly lower on them than earlier in the season when I thought Lamar Kardashian still had his scrotum attached and not in Khloe’s purse, you can never count this team out.  Jason Kidd has had plenty of rest, as has Vince Carter who has shown a sudden resurgence.  Jason Terry is still killing fast breaks, but maybe his 3’s will magically fall more frequently in the playoffs like last year.  The center combination is still in the top half of the playoff teams, and there’s that Dirk Nowitzki guy.  Most of all, I like the draw that the Mavs have received.  Shawn Marion is the ultimate X-Factor, as he gives Durant trouble, and Westbrook still thinks he is the best player on his team as mentioned above.  I’m not saying they are the favorite to win the series, but I’d still give them a 2 to 1 chance.  The key is getting out of the first round, because if they do and build the confidence and momentum like last season, then all it takes is a lucky break or two and this team is back in the finals.



9.      New York Knicks, 36-30, East #7

Vegas odds: +2000;  My odds: +1000

This would have been much lower had Jeremy Lin been healthy and ready to go, as I have mentioned previously that the Knicks are better with either him or Carmelo playing, not both.  Melo is on a roll though as he charges toward assuring himself an Olympics roster spot, and they got who they wanted in the first round.  If you don’t recall, the last time the Heatles played Tyson Chandler in a series, it didn’t turn out so well at the rim for them.  If the Knicks can pull the upset, I like them to make it to the Finals.  However, I only would put them at 5:1 to pull the upset, then a coin flip in the finals, coming up with +1000.



10.  Los Angeles Clippers, 40-26, West #5

Vegas odds: +2000;  My odds: +1600

This is the point where the contender scale takes a dip.  This Clippers team is not ready for the spot light yet, and they are still a couple of pieces away from contending in the loaded West.  Not to mention, they got a bad matchup in the first round as Blake Griffin will have to try and play defense against Z-Bo.  Chris Paul will still average close to a triple-double but it won’t be enough.



11.  Boston Celtics, 39-27, East #4

Vegas odds: +1500;  My odds: +2000

Some might think that “Vegas knows something” if they have the Celtics as the 6th favorite to win it all.  Well I’m taking it as “Vegas knows that Boston people are biased and blind homers that will bet on their team if they think they have a chance.”  That’s what a 15 to 1 line on this aging and dysfunctional team means to me.  The odds-makers acted like the Games Makers in The Hunger Games by putting the odds at high enough to where Boston is a legitimate contender, but lower enough to where Bostonians think they are getting value.  I’ll Passsssss.

12.  Orlando Magic, 37-29, East #6

Vegas odds: 10000;  My odds: +5000

This is strictly a Bill Simmons’ “Patrick Ewing Theory” in which a team rallies behind its fallen superstar.  Now I do buy somewhat into the theory, just not as much in this scenario.  Those guys on the Magic despise Dwight Howard and all of his antics.  Why would they want to rally?  They might want to combine it with an “Eff You” run, so I’ll give them a little credit and not put them at the lowest spot.

13.  Atlanta Hawks, 40-26, East #5

Vegas odds: +6000  My odds: + 10000

14. Philadelphia 76ers, 35-31, East #8

Vegas odds:  +100000   My odds: + 10000

         15. Utah Jazz, 36-30, West #8

Vegas odds: + 100000   My odds: + 10000

         16. Denver Nuggets, 38-28, West #6

Vegas Odds:  +6000   My odds: + 10000

All four of these teams are young and not deep enough to truly make a run.  While I completely believe that Utah could upset San Antonio, I highly doubt that they could then beat Memphis/Clippers followed by whatever lays next in the West.  Utah and Philly do each have a good nucleus to build around.





With that said, I guess I’ll make some predictions:

First Round:

West:  San Antonio in 5; Dallas in 7; Lakers in 5; Memphis in 6

East: Chicago in 5; Miami in 6; Indiana in 5; Atlanta in 7

Second Round:

West: Memphis is 7; Lakers in 6

East: Chicago in 6; Miami in 7

Conference Finals:

West: Lakers in 5

East: Miami in 6

NBA Finals:

Miami in 7

Cowboys Schedule Analysis: First Look

Here is an email exchange that Bryan and I had about the Cowboys schedule and how it looks as of before the draft.  Yes I know it's super early, but football is a year-round sport now, so we have to talk about something.


@ NY Giants

Michael: So let’s start with the first game of the year, as the Boys travel to the New Meadowlands to take on the defending champions.  The Giants will be without Brandon Jacobs as he is in San Francisco now, but it was Eli that killed Dallas last year.  Eli will not have Mario Manningham, which should help and hopefully the Cowboys draft a corner in the first couple of rounds.  I still can’t see the Cowboys winning this game, strictly because it is on NBC.  Dallas is 0-7 the past two seasons and 1-8 over the past three when they play on NBC.  And there’s always Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi.



Bryan: Although I feel NY has gone backwards and Dallas has progressed I have to agree with your stance. It doesn’t help the Cowboys when considering that the last 11 Super Bowl champions are undefeated in their opener the following year. I am looking to see a solid game out of the Cowboys, but to lose a close one. My line… 24-20



@ Seattle

M: So both of us have them down to start 0-1.  The next game is on the opposite side of the country in Seattle.  Normally this would be deathly week of flying from Dallas to New York, back to Dallas, then Seattle, but since the opener is on a Wednesday, the Cowboys will have a few extra days of rest.  Seattle was the Matt Flynn (who I like but not as much as the league did off of his one game against the pitiful Lions’ secondary) sweepstakes winner and I like what they are starting to build.  If Sidney Rice comes around and Marshawn Lynch can still pound away then this is an above average offense.  However, I think that they will need time to mold and feel each other out, so the second game of the season is a good time to play the Seahawks.  I think the Cowboys will pull this one out, but the ruckus crowd will keep it within a field goal.



B: I agree with nearly everything you say except the final score. Flynn is an improvement over Jackson, but that isn’t saying much. The Cowboys will struggle against Lynch, but unless Seattle can make a huge offensive splash on draft day I don’t see them being able to keep up. I will take the ‘Boys at -7.5.



Tampa Bay

M: Alright so we both have them at 1-1 going into their first home game against Tampa Bay.  The Bucs took a major step back and seemed to completely give up on their coach at the end of last season which got him fired.  Josh Freeman had the regression one could expect from his phenomenal 2010.   They have the ability to take an impact player with the 5th pick in the draft, but I doubt that impact should be felt by week 3.  I am also pessimistic about Greg Schiano’s first season as an NFL coach.  The hire puzzled me when it happened and still puzzles me now.  This is probably the easiest game on the schedule so I’m taking Dallas by double digits plus.



B: Although Tampa will improve in the short term under the Ra-ra Schiano it will not be enough to get past Dallas.  Like Dallas, Tampa has OL issues, especially at tackle. I expect Trent Richardson to be off the board by pick 5, so he will be unable to help stop the strong Cowboys pass rush. I expect the Bucs to take Claiborne in the draft, who will help defensively. However, Claiborne is not a Patrick Peterson. Cowboys by double digits.



Chicago

M: Alright so we agree that they will be 2-1 going into the week 4 home game against the Bears.  This might be the hardest game to predict this early, because we don’t know how Forte will be after his knee injury, or how well Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler click together again.  If the Bears take Kendall Wright in the draft, Forte is 100%, and Michael Bush pounds away like he did last year for the Raiders, then this might be the scariest offense in the NFC.  Their defense is aging, and I don’t know how much longer Urlacher and Peppers can keep up their high level of play.  This will be a shootout, but I’m taking the Bears with an inference that they do take Wright, Forte is healthy and Cutler/Marshall click quickly.



B: You’re speaking my mind; Romo will have to have a career day in order to pull this one off. I expect the Bears to be a serious contender in the NFC. As long as Marshall stays out of jail he will go for 100yds and a score. Last year Cutler had Chicago at the #2 seed with a horrid receiving core before getting injured. With the addition of Marshall, Wright and Bush the Bears are a tough matchup for any defense, much less a rebuilding Cowboys secondary. I see this as being close until late in the second half with a crucial Romo TO. Bears steal a close game in Dallas.



BYE WEEK



@ Baltimore

M: So we both have the Cowboys at 2-2 entering the bye.  In week 6, they have a tough road test at the Baltimore Ravens.  This is the team that was one stripped catch in the end zone from being in the Super Bowl (or a missed 30-yarder to have a chance) and I think they would have been a deadly matchup against the Giants and won it all.  They were also undefeated at home last year going 9-0 including the playoffs.  In fact, the last time they lost at home was December 5th of 2010.  This is a tough team with the best all around back in football in Ray Rice and a very serviceable (albeit not elite) Joe Flacco with a Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith out wide.  Their defense seems to be ageless as Ray Lewis and Ed Reed keep trucking away.  I want to say that the Cowboys could sneak up and steal a win, but it’ll take a Ray Rice injury or Reed/Lewis to really have a drop off.  Ravens by a touchdown.



B: I feel like the Cowboys get the short straw as far as bye weeks go every year. I’m sure there is a method to it, but that is how it seems in my mind.



As far as the Ravens go, they were my pick to win it all last year. Also, the only thing Baltimore has lost is 365 days on that aging defense. With a deep WR draft coming up Baltimore should be able to replace Lee Evans rather easily. I don’t see much of a chance for the Cowboys here. The Ravens may not blow it open just because it isn’t their style, but they will get the W one way or the other.



@ Carolina

M: So we both have Dallas at below .500 for the first time at 2-3 going into the road game against Carolina.  This is a must-win in my mind if the Cowboys want to make the playoffs.  They have a murderous stretch of 6 games and the Panthers are the weakest team in that stretch.  Cam Newton was an absolute superstar as a rookie and exceeded pretty much everyone’s expectations.  They could use a second receiving option to Steve Smith as well as help on defense which they should get some in the first round.  I still don’t think the Panthers are quite there yet, and am happy that the Cowboys play them in the first half of the season because I feel like Carolina will make a late season push to build momentum for 2013 when they will be ready to contend.  Cowboys by 4.



B: Carolina is dangerous with Newton, but the defense has too many holes especially in the secondary. Expect Dez Bryant to have a big game here as the two young superstars trade blows. In the end the Cowboys are a better all-around team at this point. Cowboys control the game from the third quarter on and win the game by a touchdown.





NY Giants

M: Alright, so we still agree and have the Cowboys back at 3-3 going into their second meeting with the Giants, this time at home.  The Giants have owned the new Cowboys Stadium ever since they spoiled the opening of it.  However, the home game last year saw Dallas really take it to them and open up a late 4th quarter lead before Eli Manning did Eli Manning things as it kick-started their Super Bowl run.  I think the Cowboys will have payback on their minds and pull out a close on by a couple of points.



B: This game is dependent on what kind of depth the Giants can put behind Bradshaw. Without a solid backup the Cowboys will pull it out in the end. If the Giants sign or draft a viable short yardage back it will be the same old story, a Giants win in Jerry-World.   Give me the Cowboys for the moment. I could change my mind after the draft.



@ Atlanta

M: Alright so that puts both us thinking Dallas will be 4-3 going into a Sunday night road game in Atlanta.  Now Atlanta may seem like a tough team based off of their playoff appearance last year and 10-6 record with virtually everybody back, but they did not beat a playoff team last season.  With that said, it’s a bad matchup for the Cowboys.  Roddy White and Julio Jones provide huge mismatches on the outside, and their defense is good enough to keep the Cowboys in check.  Since it is in the Georgia Dome, I’ll give the edge to Atlanta by a field goal.



B: This is where we split. Both offenses are stellar and will score a ton of points. However I think Jenkins makes the play of the game to give the ball back to the Cowboys late. This game could easily go either way, but I feel like the Cowboys will finally nut up here and steal a road game against a quality opponent.



@ Philadelphia

M: Alright so I’ve got them ‘Boys at 4-4 and you have them at 5-3 going into the first show down of the year against the dreaded and feared Eagles, in Philly.  This marks the end of that ridiculous six game stretch of quality opponents, and the second straight road game for Dallas, but Philly will be coming off a short week after a Monday Night Football game in New Orleans.  Everyone’s “Dream Team” going into last season, the Eagles fell flat on their face out of the gates.  I see no such let down this season, and if Michael Vick is healthy I’m going to have to give this to the birds by ten.



B: I have to agree with you here. Even without a healthy Vick the Eagles always play Dallas tough. I see a W for Philly even if Andy Reid is on his way out the door.



Cleveland

M: So you have Dallas at 5-4 and I have them at 4-5 as they hit the stretch run with 5 of their last 7 games at home.  The first one up is the Cleveland Browns.  The Browns were a trendy pick to make a playoff run last year, but it fizzled as Peyton Hillis was unfocused and Colt McCoy was concussed severely.  This team will be quarterbacked by a kid from Texas, whether it’s McCoy or they reach on Tannehill in the draft.  Either way this should be an easy W for the Cowboys.  However, the Browns are coming off of their bye week and they could take Trent Richardson who could help McCoy out greatly.  I think with the extra week of preparation the Browns can keep it close, but the Cowboys still win by a touchdown.



B: I have nothing to add here, you hit my opinion to a T



Washington

M: So that leaves the Cowboys at 6-4 and 5-5 in your and my opinions respectively.  This leads into Dallas’ first crack against RG III and the Redskins on Thanksgiving.  Washington is a great spot for Griffin: Helu looks to be a viable every down back, solid core of receivers in Santana Moss, Anthony Armstrong, Jabar Gaffney and the newly signed Pierre Garcon, and a veteran head coach in Shanahan.  The offensive line was bad last year, but they have made some upgrades and RGIII might be the most elusive quarterback ever.  This offense will score, but name one defender on the Redskins besides Brian Orakpo and London Fletcher… Go! Yeah, you would have to Wikipedia it just like I did.  I think Griffin will have a huge game in his homecoming, but the Cowboys in a shootout in the upper 30’s to low 40’s.



B: At this point in the season I expect the Cowboys to finally start playing like they were expected to for the past two seasons. A dominant showing on both sides of the ball will welcome RGIII to one of the NFL’s premier rivalries. A solid win by two scores gets the momentum going for the stretch run.



Philadelphia

M: Don’t sleep on RGIII.  After Cam’s year last season, I’m never under estimating the mobile quarterback in his rookie year where defenses pack the box.  Now we are at 7-4 and 6-5 as Dallas hosts Philly for their second meeting of the season.  Very tricky game: Philly always plays in Dallas well, but the Cowboys have the extra rest from Thanksgiving.  Vick is usually petering off near this point in the season from all the hits he has taken, but the game is on NBC.  I’m going to go with a gambling rule of thumb for the NFL, and that is if a team is coming off a Monday night game and playing on the road, bet against them.  Not only does Philly have a short week, but combined with Dallas’ long week and getting to stay at home the whole time, I think Dallas wins big as the Eagles mail it in.  By my count I’d put that at 9-2 or 8-3 coming in, so the game won’t mean as much to them.



B: If the Eagles get a hot start and are going to the playoffs then Dallas has no chance, Philly has too much talent. If DeSean Jackson is bitching and Vick is banged up then Dallas will pull of a victory here. However, you must also contemplate the health of Tony Romo, as he too has been known to be injury prone. I will take Dallas at home based on my origins alone.


@ Cincinnati

M: Alright so now you have Dallas at 8-4 and I have them at 7-5 as they travel to take on the surprise playoff team of last season, the Cincinnati Bengals.  Now the Bengals are making progress to put together a good team, but their playoff appearance should be taken with a grain of salt like the Falcons: the Bengals did not beat a playoff team all of last season (their best win was against the Jake Locker-led Titans).  Their home field advantage will be slightly diminished in that they have a late game in San Diego, their furthest flight, the Sunday before.  I do think the Cowboys might overlook the Bengals as they will have the Steelers coming in the next weekend.  With all that said, I’m not sold on the Bengals just yet; they will need a phenomenal draft and the Cowboys have a bad one for me to change my mind.  Cowboys by ten.


B: I also think this could be an oversight game for the cowboys. However, the Bengals are notorious for failing to put together consecutive quality seasons. If Cedric Benson leaves via FA things will get much tougher for the ginger signal caller. I do not expect the law firm, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, to have the same impact without a HOF QB to confuse the D.  All things considered it’s hard to pick against the Cowboys here, I will take Dallas by 5.


Pittsburgh

M: So that leaves the Cowboys at 9-4 to you and 8-5 to me as they come back home to play the Steelers.  The last time we saw them, they Tebow’d right out of the playoffs.  Now Pittsburgh was the opposite of the Falcons/Bengals as they only lost to playoff teams last year.  Outside of the opening week drubbing and the 49ers game where Ben was hobbled, Pittsburgh only lost to the Texans by a touchdown, the Ravens by a field goal and the Broncos in that overtime.  This team was sneaky-good last year and they do not play down to their competition.  However I think this will be that one Romo game where he throws for 400 and the Cowboys beat a better team, so I’ll take Dallas by a field goal.

B: This game would have been much more favorable for the Cowboys if it fell in the first half of the season. Max Starks, Casey Hampton and Rashard Mendenhall each tore an ACL late in the season, this could lead to three fresh starters coming back late in the season. The PITT D is aging, but it is still a formidable opponent against the Cowboys pass-happy offense. I agree with this being a close game and the victor, but not the OT…. Steelers by 10 utilizing a late score.





 New Orleans

M: Alright, 9-5 for you, 8-6 for me as the Cowboys play their last home game against the Saints.  This game is up there with the Chicago game as probably the two toughest to get a gauge on.  The Saints will be without Payton for sure, maybe even a few players for the first part of the season.  It’s tough to get a read on how they will play without Sean Payton calling the plays and if it’s more of his tactician abilities or Drew Brees’ passing abilities.  Nevertheless, the Saints are losing a lot at wide receiver and their defense has always been suspect.  The Cowboys always play them well, such as the year they won the Super Bowl and Dallas gave them their first loss.  So as it stands now, I’m going to have to pick the Cowboys to win this one in another shootout.  However this could easily change should Drew Brees have an “eff-you” type season and break his year-old passing record.



B: I can’t quite put my finger on why but I LOVE the cowboys here. Not sure if it will be a frustrated Drew Brees with no coaching backbone/depleted WR core or the shotty D. Even in 2010, amidst a 6 win season, Dallas was one bone head fumble away from victory. This will be a spring board into the playoffs for Dallas, as NO falters to a mediocre record. Dallas will frustrate Brees all day and dismember the suspect Saints D.





@ Washington

M: A lot of enthusiasm for that one eh? Well you’ve got Dallas at 10-5 and I have them at 9-6 heading into the last game of the season.  In your eyes, they will (most likely) have already made the playoffs, while I still think they will be fighting for a spot.  With that said, I think they lose this one.  Something always goes wrong in Washington, whether it’s Tashard Choice fumbling, or that weird game last year that should not have been that close but Rex Grossman though he was playing in Gainesville.  I think RG III will have progressed and be ready for a breakout game as it will probably be a nationally televised one.  So I’m going to have to take the Redskins, on some fluky final drive, by a field goal.


B: I’m going to agree with you on the result, Cowboys lose another late December game. However, this time it won’t matter so much as they already have their seeding locked up for the following week. The cowboys come out and play well but let this one go. RGIII has a big game, but is continually frustrated by the Dallas pass rush. Washington wins it after a sloppy Dallas 2nd half…. 23-16



M: So the final tally is 10-6 for you and 9-7 for me.  Obviously it is ridiculously early to even get a good feel for how it will go, but in my mind, there are 4 easy wins, 4 definite losses and 8 toss-up games.  So unless the stars align and they Cowboys have a deep and good draft class combined with a string of health, I’m thinking it’s going to be another 8-8 or 9-7 campaign and just miss out on the playoffs.



B:  I have the cowboys making the playoffs as the first wild card. I could see them stealing a playoff win, but I no way expect it. It would take a favorable first round matchup in order for them to advance.  A playoff run, such as the one I am predicting, will require a healthy roster and a matured Dez Bryant.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Final NFL Mock Draft


#
Team
Player
Position
School
Comment
Other Option
1
Indianapolis
Andrew Luck
QB
Stanford
The Colts have already made it known this will be their selection.
-
2
Washington
Robert Griffin III
QB
Baylor
It's a roll of the dice by the Redskins, but the high reward could be worth it. 
-
3
Minnesota
Matt Kalil
OT
USC
Kalil had been the solid pick here for weeks, but there's been a recent buzz that the Vikings might go a different route.  I think they will think of AP's knees and go with Kalil.
Claiborne
4
Cleveland
Trent Richardson
RB
Alabama
I had put Blackmon in this slot but not to the Browns and a few people who know things (Mel Kiper) are saying that he is a lock to the them now.  I think that the value of a receiver with their second pick allows Cleveland to take Richardson instead.
Blackmon
5
Tampa Bay
Morris Claiborne
CB
LSU
I had projected Richardson here until my change of mind with the Browns pick, so the domino effect causes the Bucs to take the best player on their board, and possibly one of their highest needs with one old corner and one possibly going to jail.
Richardson
6
St. Louis
Justin Blackmon
WR
Oklahom State
The Rams make out like bandits as they get the player that they most need, while adding a bevy of picks from the Redskins.
Claiborne
7
Jacksonville
Melvin Ingram
DE
South Carolina
It's safe to say that the Jaguars will go defensive front 7, but I am very unsure about which player of that group they will go with.  I'm going to lean towards Ingram but it very well could be Cox.
Cox
8
Miami
Ryan Tannehill
QB
Texas A&M
The Dolphins have been contemplating trading up to assure that they get Tannehill, but I think they will be safe just waiting for him at 8.  Now the real question is whether or not he is worth the high pick; I don't think so, but I guess we will see as he should get an early chance at starting.
-
9
Carolina
Luke Kuechly
LB
Boston College
Keuchly has just moved up and up on the draft board as there seems to be no real weakness.  Many have Fletcher Cox or Dontari Poe going here (including my previous mock) but I think the Panthers are happy with the two DT's they have no, and will go best available.
Cox
10
Buffalo
Stephon Gilmore
CB
South Carolina
With Ingram gone, I think the Bills will look at another big need and fill it with Ingram's Gamecock Teammate.  Gilmore is a burst of energy and will add depth to a secondary that has to face Tom Brady twice a year.
Barron
11
Kansas City
Mark Barron
S
Alabama
It was only a few days ago that Barron was a lock to go to Dallas, but then word crept out that the Chiefs are most likely taking him.  I don't agree with the pick, as DeCastro would be a better fit and Kansas City already has Eric Berry, but I think they will still go this route.
DeCastro
12
Seattle
Quinton Coples
DE
North Carolina
Seattle is one of the most active shoppers as they look to trade down and still take Coples.  As much as he scares most teams, Pete Carroll routinely took guys with Coples' work ethic and turned them into studs at USC.
Jones
13
Arizona
Riley Reiff
OT
Iowa
Arizona is going to go O-Line, and while it had been DeCastro, they seem to be leaning more towards Reiff now that he will probably still be there.
DeCastro
14
Dallas
Fletcher Cox
DE/DT
Mississippi St.
This would be a monster steal for the Cowboys, as Cox would probably be the best player on the board since pick 7 for a lot of teams.  If he slides, the slide stops here.  If he is taken then it will be Brockers.
Brockers
15
Philadelphia
Michael Brockers
DT
LSU
The slide of Cox will also help the Eagles land a top DT.  If neither of them is there at 15, then the Eagles will almost certainly trade back.
Gilmore
16
New York Jets
Michael Floyd
WR
Notre Dame
While Upshaw is still an option here, I think the Jets will want to add a weapon to their over-rate receiving core. 
Courtney Upshaw
17
Cincinnati (Oak)
Dre Kirkpatrick
CB
Alabama
I've thought the Bengals will go corner all along, but with the current domino effect, the second best corner on their board falls to them at 17.  If he's not there, then DeCastro slide stops.
DeCastro
18
San Diego
Whitney Mercilus
DE/OLB
Illinois
San Diego is looking for a pass rusher, and with Coples gone they settle for the next best available on their board, whether it's Mercilus, Upshaw or Jones.  I think they will take Mercilus.
Jones
19
Chicago
Chandler Jones
DE
Syracuse
Possibly the highest riser since the post combine workouts, Jones will help rejuvenate an aging defense.  With the addition of Brandon Marshall, the WR need is not as big, and the only other thing needed by the Bears is health.
Upshaw
20
Tennesee
David DeCastro
OG
Stanford
DeCastro's slide finally stops in Tennessee, as he will be able to help a depleted line.  Chris Johnson will have a new ridiculous goal to go after.  Should he not be available, I think the Titans take the titan Poe.
Poe
21
Cincinnati
Cordy Glenn
OG/OT
Georgia
Cincinnati looks to go best available and will wait until the expected string of running backs in the second round.
Wright
22
Cleveland (Atl)
Kendall Wright
WR
Baylor
With the selection of Richardson, the Browns will look wide receiver here and I think they have Wright higher than Hill.  Cleveland will look to have weapons in place so that after they let Colt McCoy get his brain scrambled all year, they can draft Barkeley at number 1 next year.
Hill
23
Detroit
Jonathon Martin
OT
Ohio State
The Lions need some offensive line help so that maybe they can keep a back healthy for a whole game.  Martin has good value at 23.
Doug Martin
24
Pittsburgh
Dont'a Hightower
ILB
Alabama
Just like in every mock I've seen recently, the Steelers get the prototypical Steeler linebacker fall right into their laps.  If Hightower is gone, I think they will take Poe and stash him on the bench to develop.
Poe
25
Denver
Dontari Poe
DT
Memphis
I've thought the Broncos will go DT all along, but it's just changed as the stock of different players has changed.  Poe is raw, but possibly the best athletic specimen in the draft.
Reyes
26
Houston
Stephen Hill
WR
Georgia Tech
I'm going to keep Hill slotted to Houston.  They desperately need a compliment to Andre Johnson and Hill's combination of size and speed give them that.
Fleener
27
New England (NO)
Courtney Upshaw
OLB
Alabama
I wouldn't be surprised if New England traded down and got more picks, but if they stay, and Upshaw is available, they will most definitely take him.  If he's not available, they will look at the Boise backer McClellin.
McClellin.
28
Green Bay
Shea McClellin
OLB
Boise State
McClellin has steadily climbed up draft boards and he provides a compliment to Clay Matthews.
Worthy
29
Baltimore
Kevin Zeitler
OG
Wisconsin
I think the Ravens are looking O-Line and am undecided between Zeitler and his Badger teammate Konz, but I think they will pick Zeitler.
Konz
30
San Francisco
Amini Silatolu
OG
Midwestern State
Silatolu is a late bloomer in both his development and his draft stock.  Apparently many teams knew about him but were trying to keep it on the down-low, but I think he sneaks into the first round.  If not, then the 49ers probably go with Fleener.
Fleener
31
New England
Harrison Smith
S
Notre Dame
I don't know if the Patriots are just completely messing with everyone or what, but their two picks appear the most locked down selections outside of the top 3 quarterbacks.
32
New York Giants
Doug Martin
RB
Boise State
With the release of Jacobs, the defending champions will need to replace him and Martin is a good all-around back to do it.  I have a sneaking suspicion they might reach on LaMichael James though.
James