With the NBA
playoffs starting tomorrow, I thought I’d revisit the Championship Odds of each
of the remaining 16 playoff teams with the Vegas odds for them to win, and my
own handicapped number.
1.
Miami Heat, 46-20, East #2
Vegas
odds: +200; My odds: +300
Once
again I was torn between the Heat and the Thunder, but I had to settle on the
Heat more of what I will talk about in the Thunder’s section. I hate them as much as the rest of the
non-bandwagon joining community, but I can’t deny the mission that the Heat
have been on. The Mavs unleashed the
sleeping beast last year and I think there’s no doubt that the Heat will get to
the Finals should they get past the Knicks (which I’d put them at 1:5 that they
will). I’d have to raise the Vegas
number strictly based on saying any team is a 2 to 1 favorite going into the
playoffs is too high.
2.
Los Angeles Lakers, 41-25, West #3
Vegas
odds: 1000; My odds: +400
The
addition of Ramon Sessions clears up their most glaring weakness, and Kobe is
starting to revert to the 2008 Kobe that comes through in the clutch. The intimidation factor that the World Peace
elbow brought to the Thunder single handedly changed where I rank both
teams. Not only did World Peach put the
seed of doubt that he could do anything at any moment on the court into the
minds of Oklahoma City, but it helped the Lakers win the game and get the three
seed, whereas they would have been the 6th if they lost. The interior presence of Bynum and Gasol is
too much for anyone they will play until San Antonio, and Kobe against the
Spurs is a lock for a 38 ppg series.
3.
Oklahoma City Thunder, 47-19, West #2
Vegas
odds: +275; My odds: +425
Although
they have the deeper team, with the better superstar (of the moment) and better bench, I have to
give way to the experience of the Lakers and the psychological state of the
Thunder. What was troubling most of all
about that Lakers/Thunder game, was how much Russell Westbrook started
dominating the ball in crunch time. If
someone doesn’t tell him that he has Kevin Durant on his team then this team
could lose in the first round (so no one better fucking tell him, let him keep pounding
the ball flat while Durant shoots nothing but disapproving looks at him rather
than jumpers!!!).
4.
Indiana Pacers, 42-24, East #3
Vegas
odds: +3000; My odds: +600
As
I said in my last rankings, I love this team.
They are the most balanced team in the league with eight guys averaging
9 points a game and all five starters in double figures. Leandro Barbosa is playing like he used to
for the Suns as the Microwave Scorer off the bench and Roy Hibbert is the best
all-around center left in the East. Most
of all, and why I have them high, is their team rebounding. If a team is going to upset the Heat, they
will need phenomenal team rebounding to keep LeBron off of the offensive glass,
and get second chance points against whatever pile of garbage is starting at
center for the Heat that night. The
Pacers have seven guys with 3 or more rebounds, including their point guard,
and four with 5 or more. The length of
George at the 2 and Granger at the 3 gives the Pacers a good a chance as anyone
to beat the Heat. Not to mention, they
have the Howard-less Magic as the easiest first round opponent of any team.
5.
Memphis Grizzlies, 41-25, West #4
Vegas
odds: +2000; My odds: +650
I
have to give the slight edge to the Pacers, even though I think Memphis would
win in a 7-game series. The teams have a
similar theme of a balanced and deep attack, but the Grizzlies have a much
tougher road to navigate to get to the finals.
With that said, I have them higher than San Antonio because they have
the confidence to beat them in the second round. I mean, last year they did it, and that was without
their leading scorer. I like their
strength inside with Gasol/Randolph to help get them past the Clippers in the
first round into the Spurs series.
6.
San Antonio Spurs, 50-16, West #1
Vegas
odds: +350; My odds: +700
I
definitely sold short on the Spurs at mid-season, but I can’t under-rate the
addition of Stephen Jackson, as well as the progress of their younger role
players. Tony Parker is having his best
season yet, and Many Ginobli is turning it on at just the right time. The Big Fundamental is plugging away like a
robot. If the Spurs can avoid the
Grizzlies and Lakers, then I really like them to make it to the Finals. As we saw last year, it’s all about making
the series, and then it’s a coin flip.
7.
Chicago Bulls, 50-16, East #1
Vegas
odds: +275; My odds: +750
I’m
just not sold on the Bulls. Derrick Rose
seems far from 100%, Richard Hamilton has shown flashes of the old Rip, but
nothing sustained; Joakim Noah is just a douche. I honestly would not be surprised by a first
round knockout courtesy of the 76ers.
With that said, I can’t put them too low because Derrick Rose could
start doing Derrick Rose-things and the Heat could get upset before the Bulls
would have to play them.
8.
Dallas Mavericks, 36-30, West #7
Vegas
odds: +3000; My odds: +800
30-1?
For the defending champions? Sign me up.
I am significantly lower on them than earlier in the season when I thought
Lamar Kardashian still had his scrotum attached and not in Khloe’s purse, you
can never count this team out. Jason
Kidd has had plenty of rest, as has Vince Carter who has shown a sudden
resurgence. Jason Terry is still killing
fast breaks, but maybe his 3’s will magically fall more frequently in the
playoffs like last year. The center
combination is still in the top half of the playoff teams, and there’s that
Dirk Nowitzki guy. Most of all, I like
the draw that the Mavs have received.
Shawn Marion is the ultimate X-Factor, as he gives Durant trouble, and
Westbrook still thinks he is the best player on his team as mentioned
above. I’m not saying they are the
favorite to win the series, but I’d still give them a 2 to 1 chance. The key is getting out of the first round,
because if they do and build the confidence and momentum like last season, then
all it takes is a lucky break or two and this team is back in the finals.
9.
New York Knicks, 36-30, East #7
Vegas
odds: +2000; My odds: +1000
This
would have been much lower had Jeremy Lin been healthy and ready to go, as I
have mentioned previously that the Knicks are better with either him or Carmelo
playing, not both. Melo is on a roll
though as he charges toward assuring himself an Olympics roster spot, and they
got who they wanted in the first round.
If you don’t recall, the last time the Heatles played Tyson Chandler in
a series, it didn’t turn out so well at the rim for them. If the Knicks can pull the upset, I like them
to make it to the Finals. However, I
only would put them at 5:1 to pull the upset, then a coin flip in the finals,
coming up with +1000.
10.
Los Angeles Clippers, 40-26, West #5
Vegas
odds: +2000; My odds: +1600
This
is the point where the contender scale takes a dip. This Clippers team is not ready for the spot
light yet, and they are still a couple of pieces away from contending in the
loaded West. Not to mention, they got a
bad matchup in the first round as Blake Griffin will have to try and play
defense against Z-Bo. Chris Paul will
still average close to a triple-double but it won’t be enough.
11.
Boston Celtics, 39-27, East #4
Vegas
odds: +1500; My odds: +2000
Some
might think that “Vegas knows something” if they have the Celtics as the 6th
favorite to win it all. Well I’m taking
it as “Vegas knows that Boston people are biased and blind homers that will bet
on their team if they think they have a chance.” That’s what a 15 to 1 line on this aging and dysfunctional
team means to me. The odds-makers acted
like the Games Makers in The Hunger Games by putting the odds at high enough to
where Boston is a legitimate contender, but lower enough to where Bostonians
think they are getting value. I’ll
Passsssss.
12.
Orlando Magic, 37-29, East #6
Vegas odds: 10000;
My odds: +5000
This is strictly a Bill Simmons’ “Patrick Ewing
Theory” in which a team rallies behind its fallen superstar. Now I do buy somewhat into the theory, just
not as much in this scenario. Those guys
on the Magic despise Dwight Howard and all of his antics. Why would they want to rally? They might want to combine it with an “Eff
You” run, so I’ll give them a little credit and not put them at the lowest
spot.
13.
Atlanta Hawks, 40-26, East #5
Vegas odds: +6000 My odds: + 10000
14.
Philadelphia 76ers, 35-31, East #8
Vegas
odds: +100000 My odds: + 10000
15. Utah Jazz, 36-30, West #8
Vegas
odds: + 100000 My odds: + 10000
16. Denver Nuggets, 38-28, West #6
Vegas
Odds: +6000 My odds: + 10000
All four of these teams are young and not deep
enough to truly make a run. While I
completely believe that Utah could upset San Antonio, I highly doubt that they
could then beat Memphis/Clippers followed by whatever lays next in the
West. Utah and Philly do each have a
good nucleus to build around.
With that said, I guess I’ll make some predictions:
First Round:
West: San Antonio in
5; Dallas in 7; Lakers in 5; Memphis in 6
East: Chicago in 5; Miami in 6; Indiana in 5; Atlanta in 7
Second Round:
West: Memphis is 7; Lakers in 6
East: Chicago in 6; Miami in 7
Conference Finals:
West: Lakers in 5
East: Miami in 6
NBA Finals:
Miami in 7
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