Friday, September 27, 2013

NFL Week 4 Picks

Well last week brought a grizzly 5-11 mark (using where the lines closed), and dropped me under-profit for the first time since I started making picks.  It was a terrible week across the board for gamblers, and amazing for Vegas.  In the Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest, featuring the sharpest gambling sharks in the country, the top 5 consensus picks were 0-5.  Hopefully we can take Vegas back a little this week.  I am holding strong with touchdown or more underdogs, even though it screwed me last week going 1-4.
VIKINGS -1 over Steelers
Pittsburgh burned me last week, but they seemed to find some comfort on offense by the end of that game.  If the rapist can keep avoiding the relentless rush getting past the porous offensive line, they can pull this out.  Or Matt Cassel officially takes over  the Vikings and leads them on a playoff push.
BILLS +4 over Ravens
A home dog by more than a field goal is a prevalent theme this week.  While Buffalo is not exactly a contender, the Super Bowl Champs have not done much on the road. 
BROWNS +6 over Bengals
While I would definitely take the Bengals to win the game, I do not want to give almost a touchdown on the road.  Brian Hoyer was surprisingly decent last week, utilizing the Browns’ best two weapons Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron.  I think there will be a heavy dose of Gordon as they boost his trade value, and the Bengals best player, A.J. Green has to deal with Joe Haden all day.
JAGUARS +10 over Colts
You have a Colts team that played a later Sunday game in San Francisco, and now plays an early game in Jacksonville less than a week later.  That’s a lot of travel for a team that has not been that good on the road the past two seasons.  Toss in 10 points and I am going to get burned by the Jags again.
TEXANS +3.5 over Seahawks
Seattle is the best all around team in the league right now, but they are no juggernaut.  There will be at least 3 or 4 losses by the end of the year and they are not coming at home.  So that leaves just a few road games against halfway decent teams that can beat them, and I think the Texans fit that bill.
BUCCANEERS -2.5 over Cardinals
I think the benching of Freeman and promotion of Glennon will light a fire under the rest of the team.  Fitzgerald is hobbling towards Revis Island, and Doug Martin will get a heavy workload with the rookie starting.  Tampa Bay starts a turnaround this week.
Bears +3 over LIONS
I keep going back and forth on this one, and could change it again by the time I am done writing this.
Giants +4.5 over CHIEFS
I mean I like Kansas City this season, and think the Giants are not that good… but to start 4-0 and 0-4 respectively?  I just do not see that happening.  (look up reverse jinx if you do not see what I have been doing)
TITANS -4 over Jets
Tennessee is a missed field goal from being 3-0 after two games on the road, while the Jets are the dumbest play of the season and another idiotic decision by an opponent from being 0-3.  The line should be a touchdown, and has been moved because of their records.  I will take the value and the Titans.
CHARGERS -2 over Cowboys
The Rams were found out last night as just a bad football team, diminishing the Cowboys’ victory from last week.  If the Chargers win this game, they would be in prime position to be favored to be 6-2 going into their first game with the Broncos, and a likely surprise playoff team.  I think San Diego sees that and throws everything they have out there.
RAIDERS +3.5 over Redskins
This could turn into a shootout with two terrible defenses and two athletic quarterbacks with big arms.  The Redskins have not proven themselves to be more than a field goal favorite on the road against anyone yet, so I will take the half point of value.
Eagles +10.5 over BRONCOS
Denver is going to have a bad week at some point (and bad for them will be average, meaning not winning by double digits) and it is not going to be against the Cowboys.  I think the Eagles sneak up on them in another high-scoring game that stays within the line.
Patriots +1 over FALCONS
I changed this pick as soon as I wrote it, because I realized it was at prime time.  I think Tom Brady brings his A game and Gronk comes back with a huge game.
Dolphins +6 over SAINTS
I changed this pick too, thinking that the Dolphins under-rated secondary will keep Drew Brees in check, and under 300 yards.  If they don’t, then the Saints run away with it.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Broncos -0.5, Saints +4, Broncos/Eagles OVER 46

Others I Like:
Falcons +11, Chargers +8, Giants +14.5, Lions/Bears OVER 36, Titans +6, Cowboys/Chargers UNDER 60

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 5-11
Overall: 21-26-3

Friday, September 20, 2013

NFL Week 3 Picks

Last week I was exactly .500, and there was a slight advantage by going with the touchdown-dogs.  They went 4-3-1, and Pittsburgh/Cleveland were both driving to cover at the end of the game.  Home underdogs were also 3-1, with just the Giants getting their doors blown off.  Eli sure has looked awful taking care of the football, hasn’t he? I took Philly last night and lost, not only that but lost some Fantasy cred as I sat the Chiefs D in two different leagues.  Who would have thought that they could prepare on a short week for Chip Kelly’s offense so well?

TITANS -3 over Chargers
Phillip Rivers will turn back into the new Phillip Rivers sooner than staying the old Phillip Rivers for long.  If that doesn’t make sense, I am simply saying this feels like a 4-interception Rivers masterpiece (or at least I hope so, since I replaced the Chiefs D with the Titans’).
VIKINGS -4 over Browns
Cleveland has officially turned its focus toward Ballin’-Like-Theon for Jadaveon/Tanking for Teddy.  I do like the move though; Richardson has been an average back, and now the Browns can take Clowney first overall and still get one of the highly touted quarterbacks coming out in the mid first or early second. 
Buccaneers +7.5 over PATRIOTS
I feel like I am being sucked in by the Patriots by showing next to nothing the first two weeks before exploding for 40+ against a dysfunctional Tampa team.  However, I think that Revis and company will take the chip on their shoulder from the horrendous start and shut down the weak Patriots’ receiving core.  I’m calling an outright upset: Tampa 31-New England 27.
RAVENS +3 over Texans
Who has looked less like the 2012 version of themselves, the Ravens or Texans?  I think that Baltimore is starting to figure it out, and the first week was just the greatest football player of all time doing things that the greatest football player of all time does. 
Rams +4.5 over COWBOYS
The Rams are a sneaky-good team that is actually somewhat similar to the Chiefs: a really good pass rush with a couple of solid corners, a quarterback who is not making mistakes, and a dynamic offensive player behind a stout offensive line.  I think the first two games of Dallas have shown us the blue print to stopping them: if they are not getting turnovers and converting, then they will lose.  Tony Romo has been hated on so much that he is now too conservative.  This will never be a running team with this O-line, so if Romo is not going to take chances, the defense has to come up big.
Cardinals +8 over SAINTS
The Cardinals are getting no respect.  Arizona took the most impressive team from week 1 (Lions) and took them to the woodshed.  They out muscled and out played Detroit.  If Larry Fitzgerald is good to go, this could turn in to a wild shootout, and a backdoor cover is a strong play.
REDSKINS -2 over Lions
I drafted Reggie Bush in every single fantasy draft knowing that there are injury risks.  The thing is, in fantasy I can take a few weeks missed by Reggie, because of the cheap price I got a top-5 PPR back for (4th-7th round).  In real life, the Lions need him at full speed to reach their full potential.  Bell is good, but not as much of a big play threat.  RG3 has a bounce back game against a weak secondary.
BENGALS +3 over Packers
My pre-season Super Bowl matchup, and I am giving the edge to the Bengals at home.  What happened the last couple of times the Packers played a really big and physical defense and a big-play wide receiver?  Oh, the 49ers cruised both times.  Cincinnati gets the win here, but the Packers begin to figure out how to beat this type of team for later…
Giants +1 over PANTHERS
The Giants can’t start 0-3 right?  When is the last time that happened?  1996- Dan Reeves was their head coach, Dave M. Brown was their quarterback and the Cowboys were coming off their last Super Bowl victory.  I doubt that the streak ends this year.
Falcons +3 over DOLPHINS
I think Miami is getting a bit over-rated for their 2-0 start.  Cleveland and Indianapolis are not exactly juggernauts, and it is not like the Dolphins were dominant looking.  Atlanta on the other hand, is a tipped goal line pass from a 2-0 start against two teams much better than the two Miami beat.  I will take the value of a line that is about 6 points the wrong way.
Colts +10.5 over 49ERS
I know, I just said that the Colts are not that good…. And I know, San Francisco is in full-on validation-revenge mode after getting their asses kicked… But I cannot take anyone giving more than a touchdown anymore. 
Jaguars +19 over SEAHAWKS
Aw come on…. I want to stick to my new philosophy, but Jacksonville is so terrible.  That’s the trick in NFL gambling though: the teams make you think they are much worse than they are.  This has the feeling of one those huge spread games where everyone takes the favorite in their eliminator pools and have to either sweat out a closer than expected game (Ravens over Colts with Brian St. Pierre starting a couple of years ago) or losing outright.  I am picking it now, but I would much rather take the 21 number that is sure to pop up by Sunday.
Bills +3 over JETS
I have absolutely no feel for which of these rookie quarterbacks will come through in this game.  So with that said, I will just take the underdog and the points because it is the safer call.
STEELERS +3 over Bears
Same drill as with the Giants: when was the last time that Pittsburgh started 0-3? 1986. 86.  John Stallworth was still on the team and Chuck Noll was still the coach.  I hate the Steelers too much for them to break that streak.
Raiders +15.5 over BRONCOS
I just have nothing else to say besides I already hate my new philosophy…

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Saints/Cardinals OVER 36, Browns/Vikings UNDER 53, 49ers -0.5

Others I like:
Patriots +3, Broncos -5.5, Steelers +12, Falcons +13, Bengals +13, Redskins/Lions OVER 37

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 7-7-2
Overall: 15-15-3

Friday, September 13, 2013

NFL Week 2 Picks

Not a great first week, but I’ll take an above-.500 Week 1 any year and going 9-0 on teaser props.  It is by far the hardest week to handicap because there is just too much unknown and variance.  The one big takeaway I have, is I am never laying double digits (or even a touchdown) for an NFL team again.  There is just too little of a difference in talent to spot a team a touchdown or more.  I started that by taking the Jets last night, and will continue to do so the rest of the season.

Chargers +7.5 over EAGLES
As juicy as Phillip Rivers on a short week with a cross-country trip sounds, I am sticking to my new dog-philosophy and going with San Diego.  I also think that each week the Philly offense will be figured out more and more.  Unluckily for the Chargers, the Eagles did not have to show as much last week because they jumped out to a big lead. 
Browns +7 over RAVENS
I would have taken Cleveland here anyway, whether it was 5 or 7.  The Browns have an excellent defense and Joe Haden really has become a top corner in the league.  If he is shutting Torrey Smith down, and the front seven is holding Ray Rice, Baltimore has some trouble.
Titans +10 over TEXANS
It used to be that week 2 was the easiest week to gamble on because of the over reactions from week 1.  The majority of the time, nothing is as good or bad as it looked the first week.  However, Vegas is starting to prey on that train of thought, and given a team who looked bad (Houston) a huge line over a team that surprised (Tennessee).  I think the line is pushing for the “Second Week Rebound” thinkers to take the Texans, so I’ll take the Titans and the points.
COLTS -3 over Dolphins
Andrew Luck is pretty good at home and Ryan Tannehill is not on the ro-… wait, Luck barely beat the Raiders at home and Tannehill won a road game in Cleveland last week?  That goes against their trends, but like I said previously, you do not want to put too much stock in week 1.  I’ll stay with Luck and the Colts.
BILLS +3 over Panthers
Not even taking last week’s games into account, I would take the Bills at home as underdogs here.  Cam Newton has always had trouble on the road and E.J. Manuel might surprise some people this season.  I also hope that there is no way that C.J. Spiller has back to back terrible weeks.
Rams +7 over FALCONS
This is quite similar to the Titans/Texans game, in a touchdown spread for a team that did not look good last week over a team that did.  I think this might be a shootout, and the Rams have strong backdoor cover potential.
Redskins +8 over PACKERS
This new gambling philosophy is going to make or break me this week with this many 7+ point lines.  I think this will also be a shootout between Rodgers and RG3.  It took Griffin a half to get his feet under him, but he looked better as the game went on.  Just like the previous game, I think Green Bay wins, but Washington sneaks in the back door.
CHIEFS -3 over Cowboys
The Chiefs are the real deal; I think with their schedule there is little doubt they will make the playoffs.  Dallas is hurting and DeMarco Murray has not even been nicked up yet.  The Cowboys are not forcing 6 turnovers every game, so the defense will have to step up.  Andy Reid has always had their number though, so I’ll go with K.C.
Vikings +7 over BEARS
Chicago had one of the more impressive wins over the Bengals last week, so I think they are getting too many points now.  I am not high on the Vikings, but I think they will keep it close with the Bears and just feed AP AD.
BUCCANEERS +4.5 over Saints
Another philosophy I am sticking to is a home dog by more than a field goal.  I am really worried about this one though, because as much as I do not want to take information from last week, Tampa lost to the freakin’ Jets.  However, since I do have Drew Brees on my big money fantasy team, I’m sure he will have a bad week this week.
CARDINALS +2 over Lions
Last week was a little satisfying in that I drafted Reggie Bush on all five of my fantasy teams (all PPR).  In all five drafts, people tried to tell me I was reaching for him or that he was going to be terrible.  It may be just one game, but if he’s healthy in this offense, he’s a top-5 PPR back.  Period.  With that said, I think the Cardinals defense will keep the Lions at bay.  Patrick Peterson is one of the few corners that can match Megatron (somewhat) physically.  I’ll take the home dog.
Jaguars +6 over RAIDERS
The Raiders should not be favored by 6 points over anyone. Next.
GIANTS +6 over Broncos
There is one takeaway from week 1 that I can guarantee will not happen again: Peyton will not throw for 7 touchdowns.  I also do not believe that Julius Thomas will continue as a top-5 tight end.  The Ravens kept their safeties in a shell over the top of Demayius/Decker, opening up the middle for Julius.  That mistake will not be made again, and the Giants start this week limiting him.  I would still take the Broncos straight up, but the Giants to cover.
49ers +3 over SEAHAWKS
Seattle has the best home field advantage in the NFL, so the line is usually shifted more than the normal 3 points.  So that means that Vegas thinks San Francisco is actually a better team on a neutral field the Seattle.  I have also been against Kaepernick continuing his run of success so much that it seems likely that he will maintain. 
Steelers +7 over BENGALS
The Steelers have already been decimated by injuries and the Bengals know that this is a crucial home game I they want to make the playoffs.  Knowing that, it just seems like one of those Ben Rapelsberger games that he throws for 150 yards and a late touchdown to beat a battered Cincinnati team 13-10.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Chiefs +7, 49ers +13, Raiders/Jaguars OVER 28
Others I Like:
Chargers +17.5, Falcons +3, Broncos/Giants OVER 44, Giants +16, Steelers +17, Titans +19

Last Week: 8-7-1
Overall: 9-7-1

Friday, September 6, 2013

NFL Week 1 Picks


Well now that all Peyton Manning/Wes Welker/Julius Thomas Fantasy Football owners are patting themselves on the back for thinking they will go undefeated, let’s get into some week one picks!!  Last year I went 41 games over .500 for a 58% winning percentage.  In other words, if you bet just $10 on every pick, you made over $300 in profit (or $3,000 if you bet $100 on every game). 
Patriots -10 over BILLS
E.J. Manuel is getting the start, but whether it is him or Jeff Tuel the Bills will struggle week one.  Tom Brady will want to make a statement that everything is okay with New England (even though I do not think it is).
STEELERS -7 over Titans
This game has a similar feel to the first: Ben Rapelisberger will look to blow out the Titans to show that Pittsburgh is still the same Steelers team from a couple of years ago.  I am slightly worried that CJ24 will find his breakaway self against the most over-rated player in NFL history, Troy Polamalu who abandons his assignments to try to make big plays.
Buccaneers -4 over JETS
Geno Smith, meet Darrelle Revis and Dason Goldson.  If Doug Martin is to repeat his performance of last season, he will need to get off to a good start against the worst team he will play.
Falcons +3 over SAINTS
I am not sold that Atlanta will win the game, but I do think that it stays close, so I will take the field goal value.  The over at only 54 is highly enticing, as I see Drew Brees and Matt Ryan slingin’ it around all day long.
Chiefs -4 over JAGUARS
Andy Reid is really good when he has a long time to prepare for a game (only lost once after a bye week).  The Jaguars are still starting Blaine Gabbert at quarterback.  Maurice Jones-Drew, meet even more 8-man boxes.
Bengals +3 over BEARS
I think that there is too much of a home-field swing on the line.  The Bengals are definitely a better team than the Bears, so the line should be less than 3.  Either way, Geno Atkins will get some of Jay Cutler and the Bengals win the game outright.
BROWNS -1 over Dolphins
I think these teams are closer to even then the Dolphins being 2 points better.  I think Joe Haden will shut down Mike Wallace and Trent Richardson has a big day.
Seahawks -4 over PANTHERS
As much as everyone has been on the Seattle bandwagon, I feel like the betting world is all over the Panthers in this game moving the line a full point already.  Vegas always knows, so I will take Seattle to cover easily.
LIONS -5.5 over Vikings
I have made my thoughts on the Vikings known, and I still think the line is a little high.  Once again though, Vegas knows more than the public.  First glance, one would think this is easy money going with the load of points and Adrian Peterson.  Hence the reason I will take Megatron to start big with multiple touchdowns (reverse regression on his unlucky TD total last year).
COLTS -10 over Raiders
There are not many double-digit point lines I will take, but playoff teams starting the season against (virtually) rookie quarterbacks, at home, seem like good money.  Especially when you have a Raiders team that could be historically bad.
Cardinals +4.5 over RAMS
While I do have St. Louis finishing higher, I think the Cardinals win this game.  No one really has legit tape on how Bruce Arians will use the Palmer/Fitzgerald combo, so I think they connect big in a surprising first win.
49ERS -5 over Packers
I think San Francisco just has the Pack’s number.  While I would give Green Bay the odds against almost every other team in the league, I think San Fran is in their heads.  The one silver lining could be that the 49ers will have a rookie safety back there and if Rodgers can exploit him, the Packers have a shot.
Giants +3.5 over COWBOYS
I think the Cowboys are a 2-point-better-team than New York, so naturally the line should be around 5, in Dallas right?  Well I think Dallas plays better at Met Life Stadium and the Giants play better at the Death Star.  Therefore, I would switch the home field advantage boost, and the Giants should be a 1-point favorite.  I’ll take that value and run (to the suite Sunday night!).
Eagles +4.5 over REDSKINS
Chip Kelly will have the tricks on full force and just as the Saints were not ready for the Redskins’ zone-option read in last season’s opening game, I think the Eagles will come out and shock Washington.  Griffin has not taken a single snap since tearing his ACL, so there will be some rust and lack of explosion.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Patriots PICK, Colts PICK, and Saints/Falcons OVER 44

Others I like:
Giants +13.5, Chiefs +6, Dolphins +11, Seahawks +6, Cowboys/Giants OVER 38, Titans/Steelers UNDER 53

This Week: 1-0
Season: 1-0

Thursday, September 5, 2013

NFL Preview

With the NFL season just hours away, I thought I would give my preseason predictions for each team’s record (you know, in case you wanted to take the free money provided by some over/under win totals) as well as the post-season.
AFC
EAST
New England
11
5
Miami
8
8
Buffalo
6
10
New York Jets
2
14

                It seems that once again, the AFC East is the Patriots’ division to lose.  New England has won nine of the last ten seasons, easily the most dominant streak in the 8-division era.  This might be the most down-trodden Patriots team going into the season since before their first Super Bowl as the Pats will be without their top four pass-catchers from last season to start the year, with hope that only Rob Gronkowski will come back soon.  Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson will need to step up on the outside, which will be made all the easier by Tom Brady.  Chandler Jones is poised to break out for a 15-sack season on defense, and with the schedule as easy as it is, New England should coast to the division crown.
                Miami has become a popular pick to pick up a wild card spot in the AFC, but I am not quite sold that Tannehill can get it done.  The defense has been upgraded with Dion Jordan rushing the passer and corner Brent Grimes.  The loss of Dustin Keller for the year really hurts, as Tannehill needs a reliable tight end outlet, and now the Dolphins are quite thin there.  The loss of Jake Long and promotion of Jonathan Martin to left tackle scares me as well, but an easy schedule should get the Dolphins to .500.
                Buffalo enters the 2013 season after a complete organizational overhaul.  A new GM and new head coach Doug Marrone reached drafted E.J. Manuel in the first round like someone playing Fantasy Football for the first time and taking the rookie quarterback that early.  It is not that I don’t like Manuel as a player, he definitely has upside, I just think they could have gotten him at least a round later.  Anyway, it could be rough the first season with Manuel under center, especially if his knee doesn’t hold up and Jeff Tuel has to take snaps.  If I was the Bills, I would look to trade Stevie Johnson for a high pick of either the 49ers or Ravens, two teams in need of help out wide.  This could help Buffalo tank this season in hopes of winning the Clowney sweepstakes, as well as let Manuel develop with his new weapons Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin.
                The only reason the Bills are projected to win more than a handful of games are that they get to play the Jets twice.  The Jets could very well be the worst professional football team in the last ten years.  If they finished 0-16 I would not be phased one bit.  Mark Sanchez is out indefinitely, and Geno Smith will have to be beaten down in his place behind a terrible offensive line.  The Jets traded away their best player, Darrelle Revis, and drafted a rookie to replace him at a position rookies typically struggle.  There are really on three winnable games for this team, and I don’t feel like talking about them anymore.
NORTH
Cincinnati
10
6
Baltimore
9
7
Pittsburgh
9
7
Cleveland
6
10

          The AFC North seems to be one of the most competitive divisions in football, and I am going against the Hard Knocks’ Curse and picking the Bengals to win it.  Cincinnati is actually just as loaded as the Seahawks or 49ers at every position except quarterback, and if the Bengals had an elite quarterback they would be the odds on Super Bowl-favorite.  They have a top-ten offensive line with one of the best 1-2 punches in the backfield now after drafting the explosive, mini-van driving Giovani Bernard.  They have a top-3 receiver in the game outside, and now two big-bodied, athletic tight ends with Greshem and Tyler Eifert.  The defense is in the conversation for best in the NFL led by Geno Atkins absolutely controlling the line of scrimmage.  Dunlop and Houston provide the edge pass rushing, and are now complemented by James Harrison.  If Terrance Newman and Pacman Jones continue to defy age, the defense will end up at the top.  It all comes down to Andy Dalton: if he can progress, this team is a title contender.  If Dalton flounders, then I think his job could be in jeopardy with the strongest quarterback class since ’83 this year.
                The defending Super Bowl Champions lost the big names, but signed the biggest contract.  Joe Flacco is now one of the richest players in NFL history, and he will have to play like it for his team to even hope at repeating.  Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are gone, as well as Donnell Ellerbe and Paul Kruger after they parlayed their post-season success into lucrative contracts.  Terrell Suggs is fully healthy and if not for the fax-blunder, the Ravens would have been in serious trouble without Elvis Dumervil.  The biggest question for me is at wide receiver where Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones bring too much of the same skills to the table.  Defenses will be able to go into a deep-4 shell, and leave the middle wide open with Dennis Pitta hurt and Anquan Boldin in red and gold.  Flacco will have to find a mid-range target to open up the deep ball, so don’t be surprised if Ray Rice gets split out more with Bernard Pierce in the backfield.
                The Steelers have been one of the more injured teams since their last Super Bowl trip, and this year has already been no different.  After taking Le’Veon Bell as the top running back in the draft, he went out and injured his foot and could miss up to six games.  First round pick of 2012 David Decastro is healthy after missing most of his rookie year, and the Steelers’ line looks to be its strength.  Antonio Brown will have to prove that he is ready to be the number-one receiver (I’m not sold) and Heath Miller needs to stay healthy for this offense to flourish.  The defense benefited from a great draft getting arguably the best pass rusher in Jarvis  Jones and a very under-rated safety in Shamarko Thomas.  The D will keep Pittsburgh in games, but there will be the 3-4 game stretch the Ben Rapelsberger misses that will do this team in.
                The Browns have quietly put together one of the better defenses in the NFL through savy drafting and mid-level free agents.  Barkevious Mingo might have the highest upside of any defender from the draft and he joins free-agent signing and Super Bowl hero Paul Kruger as bookend pass rushers in the Cleveland 3-4.  Phil Taylor and D’Qwell Jackson provide a stronghold up the middle, and Joe Haden has turned into a top-3 corner in the league.  The biggest problem facing Cleveland will be it’s 29-year old second year quarterback, Brandon Weeden.  His deep ball will have to improve once Josh Gordon gets back, otherwise Trent Richardson will be staring at 8-9 in the box and a bunch of 2-3 yard gains.  The Browns have a rough schedule with 7 of their last 9 against teams with winning records from last year, so should they get off to a rough start, they are in the Teddy Bridgewater sweepstakes. 
SOUTH
Houston
9
7
Indianapolis
8
8
Tennessee
6
10
Jacksonville
3
13

                This whole division is a tempting under pick, as they have to play the NFC West and all four teams could lose all four inter-conference games.  Sort of like the Patriots, Houston seems to be the de facto winner of the AFC South, due to being the least worst.  At some point, the Texans’ management will realize that the problem is Matt Schaub.  They have one of the best backs in the league running behind a top-3 offensive line.  Andre Johnson is still one of the most talented receivers in the league, and hopefully Houston has found the complement in Deandre Hopkins (I am not sold either, every year we are told they have this piece, but no one has come close).  The defense will be back and stronger than ever led by sideline spectator Wade Phillips.  If Tony Romo and Matt Schaub were traded for each other, straight up, I think the Texans would be a 13-3 or 14-2 juggernaut while the  Cowboys would be drafting Jadeveon Clowney first overall. 
                Indianapolis should just be renamed the Regressions.  After getting oustcored by about a field goal a game, the Regressions somehow managed to post 11 wins.  This happened because of an unsustainable record in close games, as well as Andrew Luck getting away with 22 (!) dropped interceptions.  I think Luck is the best prospect of the young 4 quarterbacks, but he has by far the least around him.  Gosder Cherilus should help the offensive line, but the other four positions are still sub-par.  T.Y. Hilton needs to prove that he can step up because Reggie Wayne will get old at some point.  The defense will be young, and probably a year away from really playing up to their potential.  I could see this team being the playoff team that falls off, then following it up next year as the surprise division champion.
                Tennessee revamped their offensive line in hopes that they can get the Chris Johnson from 2009 and not the Johnson from the past couple of years.  Andy Levitre is one of the best guards in the game, and I think Chance Warmack was the best player overall from the draft.  The problem will not be the line, but the lack of a passing game.  Jake Locker has fallen off quite a cliff from being in the conversation as the number one overall pick a few years ago, to being in serious danger of losing his job.  It will be a make or break year for Locker, and I think he breaks.  Fitzpatrick could end up starting by the end of the year, costing the Titans a top-5 draft pick.
                Jacksonville actually made a smart pick for the first time in the past few first rounds, getting Luke Joeckel as about a sure thing as they could do.  Just think if they would have drafted that smartly the past few years, they would have Jason Pierre-Paul and J.J. Watt instead of Tyson Alualu and Blaine Gabbert.  The schedule is almost as ugly as their offensive line/quarterback situation, as there are only a few winnable games out there.  I don’t care what advanced metric that the owner’s son comes up with, Blaine Gabbert sucks, and will always suck.  Honestly, that would be the best thing for the Jaguars, to suck their way to the top pick and make up for their previous misses on pass rushers.
WEST
Denver
11
5
Kansas City
9
7
San Diego
7
9
Oakland
4
12
               
                Denver opens the season as the Super Bowl Favorite (at a ridiculous price of 5/2) partly due to playing in one of the worst divisions in football.  A first-round bye seems almost to be a guarantee at this point, as long as Peyton Manning remains upright.  The addition of Louis Vasquez (Wreck ‘em) will help shore up the offensive line to keep Manning that way.  Wes Welker gives the Broncos the best 3-receiver combo in the league.  If Montee Ball can live up to the hype, Denver should be the most explosive and complete offense in the NFL.  The defense has its issues with the leaving of Elvis Dumervil, suspension of Von Miller and injury to Champ Bailey.  If it wasn’t for these issues, I would have the Broncos going to 13 or 14 wins.
                The Chiefs have become the trendy pick to go from worst in the league to the playoffs and I kind of agree.  Kansas City brought in the second most successful coach over the last decade in Andy Reid, and one of the most efficient quarterbacks of the past few seasons in Alex Smith.  Eric Fisher adds to an already good offensive line, and Jamaal Charles is coming off his best season yet.  In Reid’s system, Charles could end up catching 75 passes for more than 600 yards and become a fantasy monster.  The real kicker is the schedule.  The Chiefs get four games against the dregs of the AFC West as well as out of division games against Tennessee, Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Buffalo.  They should be favored by close to a touchdown in all eight of those games, so nine wins feels like a real possibility.
                The Chargers were 7-9 last year, and were a missed 40-yard field goal against the Browns and a 4-29 conversion by the Ravens from going 9-7.  Seems like a candidate to move up right?  However, if you look at who the Chargers beat last year, you find teams that all picked within the top 7 in the draft his year, and a fluky 8-5 win over Pittsburgh.  They have already lost their leading receiver for the season in Denario Alexander, and I’m sure Ryan Mathews will break a collarbone within the first couple of games.  The defense was boosted by the addition of Manti Te’o but he is already hurt and Bront Bird will likely get the start.  I think this could be the year that Rivers completely self-implodes, and if not, the Chargers should look at trading him (Vikings) to a possible contender and starting over.
                The Raiders are finally going to completely start over.  While this may be good for their future, the Oakland present is rather ugly.  The Raiders released all of their big-money busts, and have about 40% of their cap tied up on people not playing for them this season.  This is how a team ends up starting Terrelle Pryor in game one of the season.  Now Pryor could surprise us all and win a couple of games that Oakland shouldn’t, and that is why I see four wins and not two. 

NFC
North
Green Bay
11
5
Chicago
9
7
Detroit
8
8
Minnesota
7
9
               
                The NFC North is one of the toughest to get a read on: either it is the best division in the NFL or the bottom three are very mediocre.  Three teams had double-digit wins out of the North last season, and the fourth won ten the year before.  I think it is definitely still Green Bay’s division to lose, especially if they can remain healthy.  Last year the Packers were the least healthy team in the league, so the injury luck should be on their side this season.  As long as Aaron Rodgers is playing in green and gold, the Pack have a chance to win it all.  Rodgers is, to me, the hands-down best football player on the planet.  The loss of Greg Jennings will not be bad because Randall Cobb is ready to explode as a weapon.  Eddie Lacy should be able to fill the void that has been left in the Green Bay backfield since Ryan Grant.  The schedule is what holds the Packers back from 13+ wins, as they play seven road games against teams that were .500 or better last season, including both Super Bowl participants.  They should pull out all of their home games, and win the division still.
                Chicago was my pre-season pick to win it all, and it looked like a genius selection 10 weeks in.  The wheels came off at the end of the season once the defense stopped scoring so much, but the Bears still won 10 games, and I think could have made some noise in the playoffs if they won the tie-breaker.  Brandon Marshall was everything I expected of him last year, and should be just as good this season.  If Alshon Jeffery can break out (highly possible in Marc Trestman’s spread offense) and Jay Cutler can hold the mistakes back, the Bears should score enough to make the playoffs.  The defense loses their leader in Brian Urlacher, but Jon Bostic should fill in nicely.  Tim Jennings and Charles Tillman won’t be able to cause 19 turnovers again, but half of that should be enough.   The biggest key to the Bears will be how the offensive line holds up.  Kyle Long is versatile, but I am not sure he is ready to be a starter yet.  If he is, and Matt Slauson still has his Pro Bowl form to keep Cutler clean, the Bears could be a year late on my prediction.
                I really wanted to pick the Lions to make the playoffs, but I think the schedule is just too difficult.  Having to play the AFC North and NFC East was bad luck for them this year, and there just are not many easy wins.  I do think this team will surprise some teams with the all out air-raid passing attack.  Adding Reggie Bush and a healthy Ryan Broyles will give Stafford and Megatron a few more outlets when the defense is putting three guys on 81.  Bush could catch 90 passes and be a PPR fantasy game-changer (or at least I am hoping so with him in every league).  The defensive line got even stronger with Ziggy Ansah, who could struggle some at the beginning of the season, and turn it on in the second half.  The offensive line has some questions with Riley Reiff starting at left tackle, but I have it on good information that Jason Fox has had his best camp yet, and is ready to fortify the right side.
                The Vikings are a playoff team that just added three first round draft picks… yet I don’t think they crack .500.  Minnesota had probably the best overall first round snagging top-5 rated Sharrif Floyd, Corner Xavier Rhodes and receiver Cordarrelle Patterson.  However, I just do not think that Adrian Peterson can will them to ten wins again.  The Vikings took advantage of a weak schedule last season, and possibly the best running back season in football history to get into the playoffs.  The schedule is much more difficult, and the odds of AP coming even close to 2K again are slim to none.  Christian Ponder is the main reason this team cannot compete and unless the Vikings can work out a trade for a more established quarterback, or Matt Cassel decides to play like it’s 2008 again, I do not see this team making the playoffs.
SOUTH
Atlanta
10
6
New Orleans
10
6
Carolina
7
9
Tampa Bay
7
9

                The NFC South might have the closest coin-flip of a champion pick than any other division.  I am giving the edge to the Falcons, because Matt Ryan took the next step to elite last season.  With over 4,500 yards and a playoff win under his belt, Matty Ice was just one tipped pass away from a Super Bowl appearance.  The Falcons upgraded their running game with Steven Jackson, who was happy to get to a better goal-line situation (just 5 rushes inside the 5 last season).  Tony Gonzalez was talked out of retirement to team back with Roddy White/Julio Jones for a deadly mid-to-deep receiving threat combination.  The defense lost some pass rushing in John Abraham, and took a flier on Osi Umenyiora.  If Osi can get back to his Giants’ days of 10+ sacks, 10 wins will be an under-estimate for Atlanta.
                New Orleans is about to embark on the biggest chip-on-their-shoulder season in the history of the NFL.  I think Sean Payton and Drew Brees will be so outraged still about Payton being suspended by Dictator Goodell for all of last season, that they put the pedal to the metal and do not back off.  Brees’ season passing yardage record could be in serious doubt.  All of the threats on offense are back (Colston, Moore, Sproles, Graham).  The defense still scares me though.  I think Kenny Vaccaro was one of the more over-rated prospects of the draft, and the front seven is nothing to write home about.  Nevertheless, I think Brees will throw for 5,200+ and 40+ TD’s and just out score teams to the playoffs.
                The Panthers came on strong at the end of last season, and are another trendy pick to sneak into the playoffs.  I think that Cam Newton has made progress, but Carolina needs another receiving threat.  Steve Smith is a year older, slower, and less explosive, and Brandon LaFell is not the answer.  Domenik Hixon will get a chance to show that he was no fluke last season, but I am not holding my breath.  Deangelo Williams will get the heavy lifting while Stewart is out, and watch out for Kenjon Barner from Oregon to burst onto the scene when spelling Williams.  The defense added two top-notch defensive tackles in the draft with Star Loutulelei and Kawann Short, who will help clear the lanes for Luke Kuechly and rookie A.J. Klein.  The one weakness on this team is the secondary: the worst weakness possible for the division in which they play.  I think this season is too early, but if Newton progresses and Carolina finds a couple of secondary pieces next year in the draft, they are a year away from contending.
                Tampa Bay had one of the worst pass defenses in NFL history last year, so what did they do?  They traded for the best corner in the last 15 years, Darrelle Revis.  The one problem is that Revis is coming off of an ACL injury, and no one knows if he will be at the level he was before.  Opposite of Revis will be rookie Johnathan Banks, with second year safety Mark Barron behind them at safety.  The Bucs did sign Pro-Bowl safety Dashon Goldson, so I would say they are significantly better back there.  Lavonte David is the unsung hero of the 2011 defensive draft class and William Gholston will look like a steal of a draft pick chasing the quarterback.  The defense has definitely been upgraded, but my worry is the backfield.    Doug Martin looks to have had a sensational rookie season, but beyond the numbers you can see that almost 40% of his production was done in two games against terrible teams.  There is really only one terrible team on the schedule, and their defense really is not that bad.  Josh Freeman has the targets, but the offensive line will need to stay healthy (doubtful) and he has to get back to his 2011 form.  I think that was one fluke year, and Freeman regresses even more, putting Tampa Bay in a very peculiar position heading into next year.
West
Seattle
12
4
San Francisco
10
6
St. Louis
7
9
Arizona
5
11
               
As good as the offenses are in the NFC North, the West’s defenses are even better.  The projected records do not show it, but I believe this to be the best division in football.  Seattle had a few lucky breaks to hit the stride a year early.  Russell Wilson got exponentially better as the season went on, and with a full off-season, I expect him to become a top level passer.  The Percy Harvin injury hurts, but really only on whether they could win 15 games or not.  The offensive line is solid, and Marshawn Lynch has shown no signs of slowing down.  Christine Michael will provide a spark plug to spell Lynch’s thunder.  The defense returns the best secondary in the game led by talker Richard Sherman, and the quite assassin Earl Thomas.  The front seven is still stacked led by Bobby Wagner plugging the holes and Chris Clemons, Cliff Avril and Bruce Irvin rushing the passer.  Normally I do not put much stock into preseason games, but the Seahawks won all four by an average of 25 points.  This shows the tremendous depth on the roster and that is what separates them from the rest of the division.
                I am of the minority opinion on this one, but I think that Colin Kaepernick is in for a rude awakening.  Let us not forget that the Dolphins went from 1-15 to the playoffs using the Wildcat… then back out of the playoffs since.  If you give NFL D-Coordinators time to figure a scheme out, they will.  Just look at how Kaepernick was contained in the first half (in the second half, the Ravens were in a shell to prevent big plays) of the Super Bowl.  He looked like what he is: an athletic guy with a big arm, but bad accuracy and too willing to run.  The rest of the team is still good enough to win ten games though.  The offensive line is one of the best in the league, and they have a deep stable of running backs.  The receiving corps scares me with the loss of Crabtree, but it is not like they had a deep receiving group last season.  The defense might take a step back without Goldson as they start Eric Reid, but they will still be a top-5 unit.  Harbaugh will need to pull a different bag of tricks this season to repeat as division champions.
                I really liked what St. Louis did in the draft.  They added a dynamic playmaker in Tavon Austin, the most athletic middle linebacker in the draft in Alec Ogletree, picked up (in my opinion the best safety in the draft) a sliding T.J. McDonald, added Austin’s partner in crime Stedman Bailey, and drafted the most versatile lineman in the history of college football Barrett Jones.  The Rams then went and signed former first overall pick Jake Long and suddenly Sam Bradford has no more excuses.  The defense is deep after the emergence of Janoris Jenkins and James Laurinaitis, with a solid defensive line led by Michael Brockers, Chris Long and Robert Quinn.  Chris Givens gives Bradford a deep threat to combine with his two shifty playmakers.  The offensive line is full of top draft picks.  The running backs are unproven, but have talent and I think Daryl Richardson emerges to be an above-average back.  The Rams will go as far as Sam Bradford can take them.
                Arizona just has the bad luck of playing in the NFC West.  I think they could contend for the division title in either the AFC East or South, but will occupy the cellar here.  Carson Palmer has become under-rated due to his knee injury followed by the Hell that is the Oakland Raiders.  I mean, this guy threw for 4,000 yards with Marcel Reece as his starting running back and Denarius Moore as his leading receiver with no offensive line to speak of.  Now he has Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd to throw to, an offensive line boosted by the signing of Eric Winston and health of Levi Brown, athletic tight end Rob Housler, and four different running backs who should contribute.  The defense is sneaky good too, led by possibly the best defender in the game, Patrick Peterson.  They have added three good pieces to the linebacking core with John Abraham and Alex Okafor to rush the passer and Kevin Mentor to help Karlos Dansby man the middle.  If they were literally in any other division, they would probably be my sleeper team to make the playoffs, but I just cannot pull the trigger with such a hard schedule. 
EAST
Dallas
9
7
New York Giants
9
7
Washington
8
8
Philadelphia
7
9

                One of the biggest factors for picking the Cowboys to win the division was the extra games from the other divisions.  The Cowboys get the Rams while the Redskins get the 49ers and the Giants get the Seahawks.  That one game swing could be the difference in three pretty evenly matched teams.  Dallas upgraded their Offensive line with the best center in the draft, and the recent signing of a top-5 guard of the past 5 years in Brian Waters.  Terrance Williams gives Romo a third receiving option a la Laurent Robinson, but Williams is much more athletic and faster.  Lance Dunbar and Phillip Tanner look more than ready to fill in for the annual DeMarco Murray Injury, and I think Dez Bryant leads the league in receiving this season.  The defense will rely solely on health, and at some point the Cowboys have the have luck in that area.  If the Cowboys’ starting 11 on defense plays every game, it is a top-5 unit.  Period.  If Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, DeMarcus Ware, or Jason Hatcher go down, they have big problems.  I think the depth at corner (Claiborne, Carr, Scandrick) will help cover Will Allen and Barry Church in the back.  Most of all, I am going all in on Tony Romo.  He had the 8th best passing yardage season ever last season, and I think he breaks the 5K mark this year.  If they give him time, he will be an MVP candidate at the end of the season.
                The Giants are already dealing with injuries to their starting strong safety, as well as third receiving and goal line running back.  The depth is not as strong as it has been in recent times, and I think the injuries will catch up to the G-Men.  Eli was exposed last year as someone who has to have a great team around him to compete.  I think David Wilson will be a let-down, and Brandon Myers will not repeat his totals form last season at tight end.  The pass rush should be as good as ever, but the line backers are pathetic.  They are starting Dan Connor for goodness sakes!  Cowboys’ fans know how bad things must be when that happens.  New York will contend, because of getting to play the AFC West, but I think they will fall just short.
                The Redskins took advantage of a last-place schedule last season, as they only beat one team with a winning record all year.  Let us not forget, that if Tony Romo throws that pass 3 inches higher, Felix Jones is probably still running and the Cowboys make the playoffs not the Redskins.  The defense gets Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan back, but the secondary will rely on some youngsters.  The defensive line worries me in that Cofield and Bowen are retreads that might not be able to hold the line down for London Fletcher to fill the gaps and Orakpo/Kerrigan to avoid double teams.  The offense relies too much on the health of two injury prone guys and the running of a back coming off a spectacular rookie season.  RG3 is officially injury prone if you have followed him the past few years, and no one is certain that he will be able to play all 16.  The same goes for Pierre Garcon, and the rest of the receivers leave something to be desired.  I also think that Alfred Morris was a product of teams overcompensating for RG3, and with the injury the focus may shift to him.  Overall, I see regression with this team, and combined with a more difficult schedule leads them to hover around .500 and out of the division race.
                Philadelphia is probably the hardest teams to gauge going into the season.  No one really knows how the Chip Kelly offensive attack will play out.  It has such a wide range of variance, it could be as bad as the Spurrier Spread flailing about in Washington, or as good as the Jim Harbaugh system prospering in San Francisco.  My gut tells me that it will be more towards the Spurrier offense, at least for the first year.  The defense and secondary in particular are in need of some work.  DeMeco Ryans is not what he used to be, and the only pass rushing threat really is Connor Barwin.  The Eagles will need Fletcher Cox and Vinny Curry to live up to their potential or they are in trouble of giving up A LOT of points.  The offense could take some time to gel, which is bad because the easy part of their schedule is at the start.  It may be more of wishful/hopeful thinking, but I see the Eagles struggling.

Post-Season Awards
MVP: Aaron Rodgers-the favorite every year, until otherwise noted
Sleeper Runner-Up: Tony Romo-If the Cowboys make the playoffs, it will be on his shoulder
Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt-the name momentum from last year alone might win the award for him
Sleeper Runner-Up: Geno Atkins-maybe not a sleeper as much, but he might end up being the best defensive player overall by the end of the season
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Eddie Lacy-he will have the most opportunity on a good team
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jarvis Jones- it is just so fitting that he landed with the Steelers
Playoffs

AFC
  1. Denver
  2. New England
  3. Cincinnati
  4. Houston
  5. Baltimore
  6. Kansas City
NFC
  1. Seattle
  2. Green Bay
  3. Atlanta
  4. Dallas
  5. San Francisco
  6. New Orleans

Wild Card
AFC: Cincinnati over Kansas City; Houston over Baltimore
NFC: Atlanta over New Orleans; Dallas over San Francisco
Divisional
AFC: Cincinnati over New England, Denver over Houston
NFC: Seattle over Dallas, Green Bay over Atlanta
Championships
AFC: Cincinnati over Denver
NFC: Green Bay over Seattle
Super Bowl
Green Bay 27 – Cincinnati 21
I think that the Packers ride a healthy streak through the playoffs, and Aaron Rodgers does Aaron Rodgers’ things.  The last time people were not expecting this team to win?  2010 when they won it all. 

Thursday Night Pick:
DENVER -6.5 over Baltimore
I think the Broncos overcome their defensive weaknesses on the first night of the year.  The rest of my picks will be up tomorrow.