Well last week brought a grizzly 5-11 mark (using where the lines closed), and dropped me under-profit for the first time since I started making picks. It was a terrible week across the board for gamblers, and amazing for Vegas. In the Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest, featuring the sharpest gambling sharks in the country, the top 5 consensus picks were 0-5. Hopefully we can take Vegas back a little this week. I am holding strong with touchdown or more underdogs, even though it screwed me last week going 1-4.
VIKINGS -1 over Steelers
Pittsburgh burned me last week, but they seemed to find some comfort on offense by the end of that game. If the rapist can keep avoiding the relentless rush getting past the porous offensive line, they can pull this out. Or Matt Cassel officially takes over the Vikings and leads them on a playoff push.
BILLS +4 over Ravens
A home dog by more than a field goal is a prevalent theme this week. While Buffalo is not exactly a contender, the Super Bowl Champs have not done much on the road.
BROWNS +6 over Bengals
While I would definitely take the Bengals to win the game, I do not want to give almost a touchdown on the road. Brian Hoyer was surprisingly decent last week, utilizing the Browns’ best two weapons Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron. I think there will be a heavy dose of Gordon as they boost his trade value, and the Bengals best player, A.J. Green has to deal with Joe Haden all day.
JAGUARS +10 over Colts
You have a Colts team that played a later Sunday game in San Francisco, and now plays an early game in Jacksonville less than a week later. That’s a lot of travel for a team that has not been that good on the road the past two seasons. Toss in 10 points and I am going to get burned by the Jags again.
TEXANS +3.5 over Seahawks
Seattle is the best all around team in the league right now, but they are no juggernaut. There will be at least 3 or 4 losses by the end of the year and they are not coming at home. So that leaves just a few road games against halfway decent teams that can beat them, and I think the Texans fit that bill.
BUCCANEERS -2.5 over Cardinals
I think the benching of Freeman and promotion of Glennon will light a fire under the rest of the team. Fitzgerald is hobbling towards Revis Island, and Doug Martin will get a heavy workload with the rookie starting. Tampa Bay starts a turnaround this week.
Bears +3 over LIONS
I keep going back and forth on this one, and could change it again by the time I am done writing this.
Giants +4.5 over CHIEFS
I mean I like Kansas City this season, and think the Giants are not that good… but to start 4-0 and 0-4 respectively? I just do not see that happening. (look up reverse jinx if you do not see what I have been doing)
TITANS -4 over Jets
Tennessee is a missed field goal from being 3-0 after two games on the road, while the Jets are the dumbest play of the season and another idiotic decision by an opponent from being 0-3. The line should be a touchdown, and has been moved because of their records. I will take the value and the Titans.
CHARGERS -2 over Cowboys
The Rams were found out last night as just a bad football team, diminishing the Cowboys’ victory from last week. If the Chargers win this game, they would be in prime position to be favored to be 6-2 going into their first game with the Broncos, and a likely surprise playoff team. I think San Diego sees that and throws everything they have out there.
RAIDERS +3.5 over Redskins
This could turn into a shootout with two terrible defenses and two athletic quarterbacks with big arms. The Redskins have not proven themselves to be more than a field goal favorite on the road against anyone yet, so I will take the half point of value.
Eagles +10.5 over BRONCOS
Denver is going to have a bad week at some point (and bad for them will be average, meaning not winning by double digits) and it is not going to be against the Cowboys. I think the Eagles sneak up on them in another high-scoring game that stays within the line.
Patriots +1 over FALCONS
I changed this pick as soon as I wrote it, because I realized it was at prime time. I think Tom Brady brings his A game and Gronk comes back with a huge game.
Dolphins +6 over SAINTS
I changed this pick too, thinking that the Dolphins under-rated secondary will keep Drew Brees in check, and under 300 yards. If they don’t, then the Saints run away with it.
10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Broncos -0.5, Saints +4, Broncos/Eagles OVER 46
Others I Like:
Falcons +11, Chargers +8, Giants +14.5, Lions/Bears OVER 36, Titans +6, Cowboys/Chargers UNDER 60
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 5-11
Overall: 21-26-3
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