Well now that all Peyton Manning/Wes Welker/Julius Thomas Fantasy Football owners are patting themselves on the back for thinking they will go undefeated, let’s get into some week one picks!! Last year I went 41 games over .500 for a 58% winning percentage. In other words, if you bet just $10 on every pick, you made over $300 in profit (or $3,000 if you bet $100 on every game).
Patriots -10 over BILLS
E.J. Manuel is getting the start, but whether it is him or Jeff Tuel the Bills will struggle week one. Tom Brady will want to make a statement that everything is okay with New England (even though I do not think it is).
STEELERS -7 over Titans
This game has a similar feel to the first: Ben Rapelisberger will look to blow out the Titans to show that Pittsburgh is still the same Steelers team from a couple of years ago. I am slightly worried that CJ24 will find his breakaway self against the most over-rated player in NFL history, Troy Polamalu who abandons his assignments to try to make big plays.
Buccaneers -4 over JETS
Geno Smith, meet Darrelle Revis and Dason Goldson. If Doug Martin is to repeat his performance of last season, he will need to get off to a good start against the worst team he will play.
Falcons +3 over SAINTS
I am not sold that Atlanta will win the game, but I do think that it stays close, so I will take the field goal value. The over at only 54 is highly enticing, as I see Drew Brees and Matt Ryan slingin’ it around all day long.
Chiefs -4 over JAGUARS
Andy Reid is really good when he has a long time to prepare for a game (only lost once after a bye week). The Jaguars are still starting Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. Maurice Jones-Drew, meet even more 8-man boxes.
Bengals +3 over BEARS
I think that there is too much of a home-field swing on the line. The Bengals are definitely a better team than the Bears, so the line should be less than 3. Either way, Geno Atkins will get some of Jay Cutler and the Bengals win the game outright.
BROWNS -1 over Dolphins
I think these teams are closer to even then the Dolphins being 2 points better. I think Joe Haden will shut down Mike Wallace and Trent Richardson has a big day.
Seahawks -4 over PANTHERS
As much as everyone has been on the Seattle bandwagon, I feel like the betting world is all over the Panthers in this game moving the line a full point already. Vegas always knows, so I will take Seattle to cover easily.
LIONS -5.5 over Vikings
I have made my thoughts on the Vikings known, and I still think the line is a little high. Once again though, Vegas knows more than the public. First glance, one would think this is easy money going with the load of points and Adrian Peterson. Hence the reason I will take Megatron to start big with multiple touchdowns (reverse regression on his unlucky TD total last year).
COLTS -10 over Raiders
There are not many double-digit point lines I will take, but playoff teams starting the season against (virtually) rookie quarterbacks, at home, seem like good money. Especially when you have a Raiders team that could be historically bad.
Cardinals +4.5 over RAMS
While I do have St. Louis finishing higher, I think the Cardinals win this game. No one really has legit tape on how Bruce Arians will use the Palmer/Fitzgerald combo, so I think they connect big in a surprising first win.
49ERS -5 over Packers
I think San Francisco just has the Pack’s number. While I would give Green Bay the odds against almost every other team in the league, I think San Fran is in their heads. The one silver lining could be that the 49ers will have a rookie safety back there and if Rodgers can exploit him, the Packers have a shot.
Giants +3.5 over COWBOYS
I think the Cowboys are a 2-point-better-team than New York, so naturally the line should be around 5, in Dallas right? Well I think Dallas plays better at Met Life Stadium and the Giants play better at the Death Star. Therefore, I would switch the home field advantage boost, and the Giants should be a 1-point favorite. I’ll take that value and run (to the suite Sunday night!).
Eagles +4.5 over REDSKINS
Chip Kelly will have the tricks on full force and just as the Saints were not ready for the Redskins’ zone-option read in last season’s opening game, I think the Eagles will come out and shock Washington. Griffin has not taken a single snap since tearing his ACL, so there will be some rust and lack of explosion.
10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Patriots PICK, Colts PICK, and Saints/Falcons OVER 44
Others I like:
Giants +13.5, Chiefs +6, Dolphins +11, Seahawks +6, Cowboys/Giants OVER 38, Titans/Steelers UNDER 53
This Week: 1-0
Season: 1-0
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