Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Mid-Majors To Watch

          With the smaller conference tournaments beginning this week and the majors starting next week, it’s time to turn full attention to college basketball.  Every year millions of people across the country fill out their brackets for office or family/friend pools as they try to pick the winners.  Then every year millions of people are cursing themselves for how many red lines are seen on said brackets after the first weekend of the tournament. 
            The majority of people don’t watch any college basketball at all until the actual tournament starts, and then rely on some sort of system to pick their winners: go straight chalk; pick a ton of upsets; pick the big conference teams; pick the best conference’s teams; ride one team that no one expects.  I’ve tried them all, and I can tell you that these theories aren’t the way to go.  Yeah if you get lucky and pick Butler to run through the tournament then that one works or if you use the chalk method then it worked in 2008, but the majority of the time you’re going to fail.  Either you picked the wrong system or the wrong conference/team, but it still relies too much on luck.
            I’ve taken a new approach that I use in Fantasy Football: minimize the risk.  By saying this I’m not saying pick favorites to win every game, but be smart about picking upsets.  For example, don’t pick a number 8 or 9 seed to make it to the Final Four.  It’s only happened three times (once vacated by UCLA in 1980, Villanova in ’85 and Butler last year) because they have to play a 1 seed the second game of the tournament.  By picking this 8/9 seed to go to the Final Four you are exiting a 1 seed in the second round, something very risky (yes I know it just happened last year, but let’s remember also the questionable calls that led to that upset and the fact that Butler was way better than an 8 and Pitt should not have been a 1). 
            The biggest way that I will minimize risk is to actually use my eyeballs and logic.  Usually people just go by who beat whom and what people rank or say about teams.  Well people are stupid, so I’m going to stop listening to them.  I’m going to try and watch the majority of the 68 teams play at least once to get a feel for not just how good they are but they style of play because college basketball is all about matchups.  That’s how Missouri can go 0-2 against bubble-team Kansas State, but 25-2 against everyone else.  So if you have an idea of how both teams play, you can pick your upsets with less risk.  So let’s get to some teams that you might want to take some time to watch before they bust your bracket to pieces.
Murray State: The Racers have been the mid-major talk of the town this season as they started 23-0 before getting upset by Tennessee State.  I have yet to actually watch Murray State yet, but I’m not sold on the resume.  They did not play a single team from a BCS Conference and their biggest win was against a Memphis team that is solid but unspectacular.  I’m going to try and catch them in their conference championship game because I think their success in the Big Dance will come down to if they match up favorably with a bigger school. 
Long Beach State: This is the most intriguing mid-major to me this year.  They have only lost at home once (to a Kansas State team previously mentioned) and hung with Kansas, North Carolina and San Diego State on the road, losing by an average of 6 points.  With wins on the road against Pittsburgh, Xavier and Auburn they have played the bigger schools.  This team is very similar to Missouri as their tallest regular is only 6’ 8’’ but they are loaded with seniors and could be problems for the slow it down teams of the Big Ten.
Creighton: This is a team who I think will either make a good run into the sweet 16 or Elite 8, or get ousted in the first round.  The reason is Doug McDermott.  McDermott has been dominant this season with 23.2 points and 8.3 rebounds a game and has shown he can carry his team.  The supporting case is lacking and their lack of depth has shown in a few questionable losses, but this team will go as far as McDermott will take them.  They are a must watch in the conference tournament because if McDermott is starting to get hot then you need to account for that in your bracket, ala Kemba Walker last season.
Harvard: The Crimson have a few questionable losses on their resume but their win against Florida State is up there with anything by any other mid-major this year.  The non-stop ball movement and team game that Harvard plays needs to be working very efficiently to be successful so catching one of their last couple of games is a must to gauge their level of play heading into the tournament.
Wichita State: This team has something that most mid-majors lack, and that’s an athletic 7-footer who can bang inside as well as nail 3’s.  I don’t know anything about the supporting cast so I’m going to need to watch them to see how talented the rest of the team is, but I feel like they could possibly make a run with the right draw.  If they can avoid other NBA-talent laden teams then they could have the advantage.
Davidson: Davidson is a team that proved it can beat anyone when they won AT Allen Field House over Kansas by 6.  Combine that with close loses to Vanderbilt and Duke as well as defeating Richmond and this team has proven itself worthy of consideration.  I need to watch them to get a grip on their style of play to see which teams they could pull an upset on.
Now I know that I mentioned how teams beat other teams, but only use that as a reference to take notice of that team.  Do not just use that they won a single game as a reference for an upset.  I mean, Binghamton is the worst team in the nation, losing their first 26 games, but they beat Vermont… who beat Old Dominion, who beat South Florida, who beat Pittsburgh, who beat Tennessee, who beat Florida, who beat Florida State, who beat Duke, who beat Michigan State, who beat Indiana, who beat number one in the nation and odds on favorite to win the title, Kentucky.  So use the resume of a team to only acknowledge that they should be noticed, but use your eyes and logic to determine how you think it will all play out.

Monday, February 27, 2012

Ranking the American League West: Pitching Staffs

With the start of Spring Training upon us, I’m going to rank the different aspects of each team in the A. L. West (pitching, lineup, overall) as they head into camp.  Today I will start off by ranking the overall pitching staffs of each team.
1.     The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Pitching staff is the one area of the teams where The The Angels Angels of Anaheim (think about it: The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Los Angeles=The Angels=TTAAA) have a distinct advantage over the Rangers.  TTAAA already had the best staff in the American League last season before stealing their biggest rivals’ “Ace”.  I think you can safely say that the Angels have the best top-4 starters in baseball now that Oswalt left the Phillies.  It all starts with Jared Weaver.  Weaver had Cy Young-like numbers last year at 18-8, 2.41 ERA and 198 K’s.  Weaver has developed into a true Ace (no quotes needed) as well as one top 3 pitchers in the A.L. 
After Weaver TTAAA go Ervin Santana, Dan Haren and C.J. Wilson in some order.  Any one of these three guys would be the top pitcher on about half of the staffs in the majors, yet one will be the number 4 in this rotation.  While this may sound scary, the numbers make it even worse.  When combined with Weaver, the four of these pitchers had an overall ERA of 2.97 last season over 926 innings.  This was done over a combined 136 starts to average out to just under 7 innings pitched per start.  So you’re looking at four guys who each average 7 innings and only 2 earned runs.  Basically, TTAAA have the kind of superstar rotation that the Phillies tried to put together last season, except the back two are better.
The fifth starter is a completely different story.  Mike Scioscia has said that it is a wide-open race for the fifth spot, but Jerome Williams seems to be the favorite.  He came on strong at the end of the season, posing a 4-0 record in 6 starts with a 3.68 ERA.  While this may seem like the rich getting richer, this has all the makings of an anomaly.  It was the first time Williams finished a season with a winning record since his first season in the majors when he was 21 and he only finished 7-6 then.  His last two seasons before last year he finished with an ERA over 7 and without winning a decision either year.  Between then and last year he spent three seasons in the minors and independent leagues, so I’m not entirely convinced by him.  With no other guys on the roster with more than 2 starts last year, it’s definitely Williams’ spot to lose, whether that’s a good or a bad thing for TTAAA.
TTAAA’s bullpen is not nearly as top-notch as their rotation, but it really doesn’t have to be four out of every five games.  Jordan Walden had a breakout season as the team’s closer, with 32 saves, 2.98 ERA and over a strikeout per inning.  Scott Downs and Fernando Rodney were solid, not spectacular in getting to Walden, but Rodney is gone so Downs will be relied on heavily.  Without another sturdy option to go to in setting up Walden, TTAAA might rely too much on Downs and/or stretching their starters’ innings.
TTAAA easily has the best overall pitching staff in the A.L. West, possibly in all of the majors, mostly based on the strength of their top 4 starters.  But TTAAA knew that it was needed with the lack of offense outside of the newly signed Albert Pujols and the plethora of their division for Rangers.  Last year, they had three of the big four and still managed to finish ten games back of the Rangers.  TTAAA did snipe the Rangers’ top pitcher, but they’ve reloaded, so does C. J. Wilson make up that 10 game difference?  TTAAA will need the young Rangers’ pitchers to digress for that to happen.

2. Texas Rangers
The majority of the time that a team loses its “Ace” starting pitcher that led the team in wins, ERA, and strikeouts their starting pitching as a whole is in trouble.  Yet, the Rangers have seemed to have a more promising rotation going into this season than last.  Will C. J. Wilson be missed during the regular season? Yes, of course he will.  He was one of the better 5 or 10 pitchers in baseball throughout the regular season last year as he went 16-7 in 223.1 innings with 206 strikeouts and an ERA of 2.94.  But the regular season success is not what this team expects now: they need someone who doesn’t shy away from the moment in the playoffs.  So Jon Daniels took another gamble (and the last 5 years, every gamble he has made has been like betting on the over in the NBA All-Star Game) this time with Japanese starting pitcher Yu Darvish.  Darvish’s track record in Japan has made Dice-K’s look like child’s play.  He went 18-6 with a 2.95 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 276 K’s while tossing 6 shutouts  He also brings in a dominating presence at 6’5’’ and is a fast-ball pitcher as opposed to most of the junk-tossing guys that previously have come out of Japan.  While he may not be an “Ace” this season as he transitions into the American style of play, he will be a solid second or third option.
            The Rangers also return three other starters that won 14+ games last season led by Derek Holland.  Many, including me, believe that the Dutch Oven took the next step last season in his masterful 8 1/3 shutout innings in game 4 of the World Series.  In the regular season he went 16-5 with a 3.95 ERA and a 162 K’s, all career bests.  Right behind Holland at 14 wins were both Colby Lewis and Matt Harrison.  Lewis’ stats aren’t impressive, but he chews up innings (200.1) and gets deep into games, which is what this team is built around.  Harrison also had a breakout season as he was a full-time starter for the first time in his career.  He ended it with a 3.39 ERA over 185.2 innings.  There is one question at starter and that is Alexi Ogando.  Last year he busted out winning his first 9 decisions making the All-Star team.  The club will now move its All-Star starting pitcher into the bullpen and bring its All-Star closer into the rotation, Neftali Feliz.  Nefti has always been thought of as a starter, but the team wanted to ease his way into it.  Since his breakout in the minors, he has been seen as a guy with stuff (100+ mph fast ball) to be a top of the rotation guy.  With the way that Alexi dominated the 7th and 8th innings in the playoffs, this seems to be the right switch.
 If the starter can give the Rangers a quality start (6 IP, 3 ER or less) than it will win the majority of its games with the loaded lineup it puts out there and shutdown bullpen it has developed.  Last season, of the returning starters, had a combined 58 quality starts out of 94 for a percentage of just over 61%.  If the starter gets to the 7th, then the bullpen has the depth and quality to shut it down the rest of the game.  The reason that the club can move Neftali to the rotation is the signing of former All-Star closer Joe Nathan from the Minnesota Twins.  Nathan’s presence gives a veteran closing mentality to the team that was one strike away from winning the World Series last year.  Bringing Ogando back to the bullpen gives the Rangers the best combo of 7th-8th inning guys in the league with Mike Adams who was arguably the best reliever in the Majors last season.  If Koji Uehara can regain the top form he had before being traded to the Rangers last year, his presence along with Scott Feldman as a long reliever/spot starter gives the bullpen solid depth.
Are there questions surrounding the Rangers’ pitching staff going into the season? Well of course there is: will Darvish live up to expectations, will the young pitchers keep progressing, will Feliz make the transition, will a left-handed reliever step up and will Nathan stay healthy.  But this staff has more potential to not just succeed but be one of the best in the league than any previous Rangers’ teams going into the season.  If the starters can stay healthy as they did last year, and Darvish/Feliz can even come close to their expectations, then pitching appears to be a true strength of the team.

3. Seattle Mariners
The Mariners also decided to flip a proven commodity into prospects for the future when they traded starting pitcher Michael Pineda to the Yankees for catcher Jesus Montero and other prospects.  This broke up one of the better 1-2 punches at the top of the rotation of any team outside of Philadelphia.  While it definitely will help the struggling lineup, it greatly thinned out an already thin pitching staff.
At the top of the rotation is still King Felix, the best pitcher in the bigs not named Verlander (and even some days I think I might take Felix over Verlander).  He finished last season with a .500 record, but that was not due to his own fault.  He had an ERA of 3.47 and 222 strikeouts while also tossing five complete games.  After Hernandez there are a lot of questions though.  Jason Vargas is the now the second guy in the rotation but not by merit.  He finished last season at 10-13 with a 4.25 ERA and only 131 K’s.    Blake Beaven had his first foray into the majors last season, less than a year after being traded from the Rangers in the Cliff Lee deal.  He was unspectacular but not terrible with a 4.27 ERA going 5-6.
After Beaven are two completely unproven commodities, Hisashi Iwakuma and Hector Noesi.   Iwakuma was 6-7 with a 2.42 ERA in Japan last season, which when compared to Darvish’s numbers shows he could possibly be a serviceable starter at some point, but that doesn’t seem to be now.  Hector Noesi worked most out of the pen last season for the Yankees but then came over to the Mariners in the Pineda trade.  He made a couple of starts in which he showed promise, but he probably isn’t ready for the major league level yet.
The bullpen is a little deeper than the rotation led by closer Brandon League.  League didn’t get many chances to shut down teams but he did a good job with them saving 37 games last season.  The club signed Hong-Chih Kuo away from the Athletics to be their setup man and also added Shawn Kelley to provide late innings.  If Charlie Furbishc can transition into a long-innnings man then the bullpen could round out nicely.
Overall the Mariners staff is not as deep or talented as last season, although there is promise.  I’d have to give them the slight edge of the Athletics because King Felix is just that good that no matter who is batting on his team, you’ll have a chance to win the game.  Without Pineda though, the 29-game gap between the Mariners and first place last year could get even wider this season.

4. Oakland Athletics
The Oakland Athletics ended last season with probably the best pitching staff of any of the A. L. West teams.  So what did they do? They completely overhauled it, trading away two of their best starters and best reliever, Trevor Cahill/Gio Gonzalez and Andrew Bailey respectively.  They picked up two top-notch prospects in return but I feel like the A’s are beginning to out-moneyball themselves.  Gonzalez was phenomenal for the team last year winning 16 games with a 3.12 ERA, 197 K’s, and over 200 innings pitched.  Cahill was slightly down last year, but it was just 2010 when he went 18-8 with a 2.97 ERA.  While they got plenty of prospects in return, you can win with those two guys right now.  The A’s always seem to just be playing for the future.
As it is, Oakland’s top of the rotation is still questionable as Dallas Braden only made three starts last year because of injuries.  His lowest ERA for a season has been 3.50 and even that year he finished a measly 11-14 with only 113 strikeouts.  I feel like he has been overvalued because of the perfect game he threw a couple of years ago.  After him it was supposed to be a couple of Rangers’ castoffs, but with Rich Harden missing this season with an injury it will just be Brandon McCarthy.  He did have a very solid season going 9-9 with a 3.32 ERA but compared to the other teams in the division, he would be last in terms of the second starters.  To replace Harden, the A’s decided to sign journeyman Bartolo Colon who was barely serviceable at 8-10 with an ERA over 4 last year for the Yankees.
The last two spots will be filled by two of the prospects picked up in trades over the off-season, Jarrod Parker and Brad Peacock.  Parker was picked up in the Cahill trade from Arizona and is a highly touted prospect; the problem is he pitched just one game at the end of last season and is coming off Tommy John surgery in 2010.  That game was an unyielding outing going 5 strong with no runs, but he has yet to prove himself.  Brad Peacock came over in the Gonzalez trade from the Nationals and it’s more of the same: good prospect yet to prove himself on the big league level.
The bullpen is going to sorely miss its closer Bailey, but Brian Fuentes filled in nicely last season when Bailey was hurt.  Fuentes will be the set-up man to Grant Balfour, a very good option at closer.  However, much like the Angels, the A’s will need some of the young arms in the pen to step up this season, namely Joey Devine and Fautino De Los Santos.  They have a severe lack of depth and it could end up causing much strain on the young arms in their rotation.
The Athletics somehow managed to turn the best pitching staff in the division into possibly the worst.  While it may have loads of potential, all it is right now is potential.  They would need breakout years from multiple guys in both the rotation and the bullpen to even have a puncher’s chance at competing with the top two in the division.     

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Power Ranking the NBA Teams' Chamiponship Odds

As we get to just over the halfway point in this shortened NBA season, teams are starting to sort themselves in a hierarchy.  With that being said, as we saw the last time there was a lockout shortened season of 1999, anything is possible up until a team is crowned (the 8th seeded New York Knicks making it all the way to the Finals).  The biggest difference between then and now is the state of the NBA in general.  As the first post-Jordan era season, 1999 had few established teams, and even those were older teams that had been worn down by the shorter grind of a season.  So here are my NBA Power Rankings and keep in mind that they are not about who has the best record, the most talent or playing the best right now, but moreover who has the best chance (if we were gambling, who’d have the best odds) to hold the trophy up in mid-June.
                   
Tier 1: Contenders
The Favorites.
1A. Miami Heat 27-7, 1st in the East
 1B. Oklahoma City Thunder 27-7, 1st in the West
These two teams have played almost exactly equally throughout the first half of the season.  They are even eerily similar in the way they play: arguably the best player on the planet leading the team (Lebron/Durant) with the second best number two option in the league flanking him (Wade/Westbrook) and a solid third option to pick up the slack on off nights (Bosh/Harden).  They have played decently tough schedules so far with OKC posting a 16-5 record against teams in playoff position (7-4 on the road) and Miami having a 13-3 against similar foes (5-2) on the road.  Although the Thunder are a deeper team with Ibaka and Perkins down low, the route through the West Playoffs will be tougher than what the Heat will have in the East.  I mean, even as the top seed, the Thunder will likely have a dangerous Portland or Memphis team, both of which could take the series the distance.  Either way we will learn a lot more about these two teams as they match up twice over the last month of the season.
3. Indiana Pacers 21-12, 3rd in the East:
There’s just something about this team that I really like.  All 5 starters averaging in double figures, Roy Hibbert making a leap into the top 5 centers in the league category, and Danny Granger/Paul George providing one of the more interesting 2/3 combos in the league with their athleticism, defense and scoring abilities.  David West is even having a solid year even though he’s no longer a number one option.  I like them in a 7-game series against everyone in the East except the Heat.
4. Chicago Bulls 27-8, 2nd in the East:
The combination of Derrick Rose’s health and the trade rumors swirling around Joakim Noah is making me less and less confidant in the Bulls.  When fully healthy and focused they are in the top three with the Thunder and Heat, but I’m not convinced that this will be the case the rest of the season. 
5. Dallas Mavericks 21-13, 4th in the West
Before I get the Complete Homer pick thrust on me, hear me out.  Last season, the Mavericks were in worse position, with a team more unproven.  They have upgraded from J. J. Barea to Delonte West; from Deshawn Stevenson to Vince Carter; added Lamar Kardashian.  All of these factors help overcome the lack of Tyson Chandler in the middle, whose presence is not as sorely missed with the emergence of Breniandan Mahaywoodright.  The biggest factor as to why I see them this high is Dirk Nowitzki: he has found his rhythm again with 7 straight 20+ point games including 4 double-doubles against some of the best teams in the NBA.  As we all learned last year, if you have Dirk going, you can win it all.
6. Los Angeles Clippers 20-11, 3rd in the West
Lob City is easily the most exciting team to watch with the high flyers they show each night.  Most exciting doesn’t always equal the best in the NBA (see the San Antonio Spurs 1999, 2003, 2005, 2007).  The Clippers have a top-3 point guard, top-3 power forward, top-10 center, and Caron Butler having a comeback player of the year type season.  However, their lack of a true 2-guard combined with their lack of frontcourt depth is troubling.  Past Blake and DeAndre Jordan, Lob City doesn’t have much to offer and even those two are one-way players.
7. Los Angeles Lakers 20-13, 5th in the West
The Lakers have the best inside game in the league.  They couple this with the worst point guard/small forward starting combo, not to mention the league’s worst bench.  I outlined their long list flaws in my entry about the Mavericks and Lakers the other day, so I’m not going to beat a dead horse.  With all of that said, Kobe will still will his team to a playoff series win or two and I wouldn’t be surprised if they did beat the Clippers, Mavericks or Lakers in the playoffs.  But what I’m going by here is the chances to win it all, and with their amazingly thin lineup and brittle knees there’s no way they can last through this murderous season and playoff schedule unscathed.
Tier 2: Fringe Teams
Teams a piece or two away from the top tier.
8. Philadelphia 76ers 20-14, 5th in the East
The surprise team of the year has a young and talented rotation.  Jrue Holiday (Campbell Hall reference for Pechin) has turned into a solid point guard when not being guarded by Shawn Marion.  Lou Williams has stepped up as the scoring threat so that Andre Iguodala can focus on being the all-around player that he is (and that’s probably the second best 5-tool player after LeBron).  Elton Brand has settled in and in the weak East this team could surprise in the first couple of rounds in the playoffs, but I can’t see them beating one of the top four from the west.
9. Orlando Magic 22-12, 3rd in the East
If I completely took trades into account for these odds, then the Magic would be even lower.  I’m putting it at 50/50 that Otis Smith pulls the trigger on a Howard deal or if he tries to make one more run with him as the centerpiece.  But if he decides the latter, do they even have a chance?  Jameer Nelson has regressed since the year the Magic went to the Finals.  Orlando downgraded from the more complete Brandon Bass to the inconsistent and over-celebrative Big Baby.  Ryan Anderson is having a great first half, but can he keep it up?  It would take a string of 40/20 games from Dwight to beat any of the top 8 teams in a series.
10. San Antonio Spurs 23-10, 2nd in the West
It’s like déjà vu all over again.  The Spurs putting up a good regular season record, while winning mostly without Manu.  How long will it really last though when Tim Duncan is just a shade of his former self, Tony Parker is busy scamming on players’ wives and Manu can’t stay on the court.  What makes them even less likely is the seeding situation right now.  The Spurs are vulnerable against the younger athletic teams such as the Grizzlies or Trailblazers which they would first round, and Clippers in the second round.  I just can’t see the Spurs lasting through two long series against younger teams.
11. Memphis Grizzlies 19-15, 7th in the West
I have them behind the Spurs overall, although I think they would beat them again in a 7-game series.  I just don’t think they will have the luxury of playing them in the first round, so they’d have to overcome OKC, Lob City, or the Mavs.  But if they Grizz can draw the Spurs in the first round, build some confidence like last year when they took the Thunder to the brink, then they have a chance.  Marc Gasol is having the best season of his career and need you be reminded that Memphis made its playoff run last year without its best player, Rudy Gay?
12. Portland Trailblazers 18-16, T-8th in the West
Portland gave the champs all they could handle in the first round last year, then got better by adding Raymond Felton.  There’s been friction between players and coaches on the team, but it hasn’t affected LaMarcus Aldridge who is making a serious Olympics 2012 campaign.  However, as deep as this team is, they are shallow at the top without their face, Brandon Roy.  If you put a healthy Roy on this team then they shoot up to the top 5 or 6.  Without him they remain on the fringe, because there is no go-to scorer in the clutch, something that each champion has had for the past 20 years (Dirk, Kobe, Wade, Duncan, Jordan, Hakeem). 
13. Atlanta Hawks 19-14, 6th in the East
The Hawks are the epitome of the middle-ground NBA team.  They past few years they make the playoffs but don’t make a deep run.  So at the end of the season, they have not made much progress in the playoffs, yet don’t have a high draft pick.  They have good, young talent, but maybe Joe Johnson isn’t a player to be the center piece.  I’m sure they could get such a player with a package surrounding Joe Johnson (Dwight Howard) but they won’t have the courage to pull it off.
14. New York Knicks 17-17, 7th in the East
As you may know from my previous entry, I’m not sold on the Knicks.  I don’t think Jeremy Lin and Carmelo can coexist while keeping Amare and Tyson Chandler appeased.  J. R. Smith was a good pick up, but, once again, he needs shots and possessions just like everyone else.  The Heat just took apart the Knicks at full strength and it had nothing to do with not being together too long.  This team just doesn’t fit.  Their best bet would be to cash in on Jeremy Lin right now, since they don’t have Bird rights on him after the season anyway, so he will be walking away too more than the mid-level exception to whatever team with cap space misses out on Deron.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves 17-17, T-10th in the West
This is my sleeper team as the favorite to upset the Spurs in the first round of the playoffs (and yeah possibly the Mavs if it came to that).  No one would want to play the 2013 trendy sleeper pick in the playoffs this year.  Kevin Love has solidified himself as a top-10 player that you can build a team around with his tenacious rebounding and ability to stretch the floor past the 3-point line.  Rubio has been everything he was advertised to be and made everyone else on the team better.  They are a game out of the playoffs right now and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take Houston’s spot as Lowry starts to fade there.  If one of their surplus of tweeners (Derrick Williams, Michael Beasley, Anthony Tolliver, Anthony Randolph, Wesley Johnson) can step up as a solid second option to Love then this is a very dangerous team.
Stuck in the Middle
Teams lost in NBA Noman’s Land
16. Houston Rockets 20-14, 6th in the West
The Rockets will have to live with “what if” when it comes to this season.  What if David Stern wouldn’t have vetoed the trade that would have sent Pau Gasol to the Rockets, causing them to release Jeremy Lin?  A lineup of Kyle Lowry, Jeremy Lin, Chandler Parsons/Marcus Morris, Pau Gasol and Samuel Dalembert with Courtney Lee, Chase Budinger and Patrick Patterson off the bench? That’s something that could make some noise.  Nevertheless, the Rockets are stuck in the NBA Middle-No-Man’s-Land.
17. Boston Celtics 15-17, 8th in the East
Remember all of the problems I said about the Bulls and Spurs? Well the Celtics have all of them combined.  Kevin Garnett is just plain old.  Rajon Rondo is pissed off about being constantly shopped in trades, not to mention his best friend Kendrick Perkins still being gone.  Some nights he plays hard and has 30-10-15.  Some nights he’s just pissed and goes for 15-4-6 with 8 turnovers.  The lack of anything after the four, coupled with the locker room unrest will stop this team from coming close to winning a playoff series, if they even get there. 
18. Denver Nuggets 18-16, T-8th in the West
As much as the Galinari injury hurt the Nuggets, J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin now playing for other teams hurts them worse.  If you put those two on this team then you got a top 4 team in the west.  As it is, they don’t have much punch after Galinari and Lawson started off hot but is cooling down now.  They are in dangerous water with The T-Wolves lurking just behind them for the last spot in the West.
19. Utah Jazz 15-17, T-10th in the West
We’ve officially reached teams playing for next year, so in all honesty every team from here on out should start tanking in the Anthony Davis sweepstakes.  Paul Millsap is having an outstanding year but outside of him this team is in need of just about everything.  The Deron Williams trade is not working out much for the Jazz now, but that extra pick in the next draft could come up huge.  Two top-10 picks next year can turn a franchise around really quickly.
20. Golden State Warriors 13-17, 12th in the West
Yet another team stuck in the middle, Golden State needs to start shopping Ellis or Curry right now.  I’m guessing they give Ellis to a team that needs a 2-guard (Clippers, Timberwolves) and try to get a good pick in the next draft since the Jazz own their pick unconditionally.  They could have thrown the max at Tyson Chandler, and then gone to the season with Curry, Ellis, Chandler, and Lee which would at least give you playoff hopes.  Also, Utah owns their first round pick via New Jersey if it’s not in the top-7, so there’s not help for the warriors there.  Alas, the Warriors are where they are.
21. New Jersey Nets 10-25, 13th in the East
Expect the second half to be a Deron Williams showcase as he will be looking to lock up a max deal from whoever has the space to offer it.  With Brook Lopez back, Kris Humphries continuing his strong play, and rookie Marshon Brooks starting to come into his own, the six and a half game lead the Celtics have on the 8th and final playoff spot is far from secure.  I mean which team would you rather play in a seven game series, the young and hungry Nets or the old and grumpy Celtics?
Hoping to Hit the Lottery
Teams that need to tank. Badly.
22. Sacramento Kings 11-22, 14th in the West
I have the Kings higher than their record because they simply have more talent than any team below them and its all young guys.  DeMarcus Cousins can be an All-Star if he gets his head on straight and the backcourt trio of Tyreke Evans/Marcus Thornton/John Salmons is very intriguing.  This team is another big guy away from making some noise and they have other pieces (Jimmer, Isaiah Thomas, J.J. Hickson) that they could move to get it.  Or, they could tank and try to get Perry Jones III.
23. Cleveland Cavaliers 13-18, 9th in the East
Cleveland is playing surprisingly well as Kyrie Irving has proved to be the real deal.  Like the Kings, this team actually has a bit of talent, but is a piece or two away.  Look for a contender needing an extra power forward to be looking into Antawn Jamison, which could net the Cavs another pick in the loaded 2012 draft.
24. Phoenix Suns 14-20, 13th in the West
While the Suns may be only 4 games out of the playoffs, this team has got to know that the core it has right now is not the answer.  Marcin Gortat is proving himself to be a good anchor in the middle and Channing Frye/Jared Dudley are serviceable role players but beyond their starters Phoenix has got almost nothing.  They need to package Steve Nash/Grant Hill to a contender to get either draft picks or some quality younger guys in return.
25. Milwaukee Bucks 13-20, 10th in the East
A couple of years ago the Bucks seemed to be building something good around Jennings and Bogut, but have yet to add anything solid to back them up.  Then Bogut has been injured for most of the season and you can see that this team is in need of help.  Stephen Jackson does not want to be there and the Bucks can possibly get value for him before the trade deadline.  Like the Suns, the playoffs aren’t that out of reach, but this team wouldn’t stand a chance against the top 2 or 3 in the East anyway, so might as well tank and try to add a scorer (Harrison Barnes).
26. Detroit Pistons 11-24, 11th in the East
The Pistons are one of the more intriguing teams to me.  I think Brandon Knight will turn out to be a stud at point guard and Greg Monroe is already proving himself to be a solid center.  If Rodney Stuckey or Ben Gordon can regain some scoring form, move Maxiell to a sixth man role that he is better suited for, and then add a good power forward in the draft then this team can turn itself around.  Tayshaun Prince is only 31 and with the right pieces he can have the type of revival Shawn Marion is showing this year.
27. Toronto 10-23,12th in the East
Jose Calderon is having a good year and Andrea Bargnani was finally living up to his number-1 overall status until he was hurt, but this team has no depth.  Barbosa has disappointed mightily and DeRozan is just a dunker.  Amir Johnson is good enough to win with as a starter but I’m not so certain about James Johnson.  If the Raptors get lucky and win the lottery, they can have a lot of leverage as people will be looking to trade to get the Unibrow and the Raptors front court is decent enough.
28. Washington 7-26, 14th in the East
John Wall has regressed somewhat in his sophomore season and JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche are just nimrods that only look out for their stats and highlights.  Rashard Lewis is mailing this season in with hundred dollar bills as envelopes.  Washington desperately needs the top pick in the draft to supplant one of the knuckleheads in their front court.  Nick Young is serviceable as a backcourt partner to Wall, but the other three spots in the lineup are dreadfully bleak looking, especially with Jan Vesely not showing what he can do yet.
29. New Orleans 8-25, 15th in the East
Would the package that the Hornets would have gotten by sending Paul to the Lakers have been better? Probably.  But in the end, they got what they got.  They will most likely lost Eric Gordon in free agency (he’s restricted, but unless the ownership is resolved by then it’s doubtful they will match).  The only players worth keeping are Jarrett Jack and Trevor Ariza.  Emaka Okafor is serviceable, but they will discard him if they can get Anthony Davis.  New Orleans does have options though, as they own the Timberwolves’ first round pick (although it’s looking like a later and later pick) and this draft goes about 20-deep in solid players.  So if they could keep Gordon, and add say a Thomas Robinson and Tyler Zeller, then the franchise will at least have a bright outlook.
30. Charlotte 4-28, 15th in the East
The Bobcats are finally figuring it all out: if you’re not going to make a run at the title, then suck.  Suck as bad as you possibly can.  I really think MJ is telling them to lose.  They have a few decent pieces in Augustine, Kemba and Boris Diaw (if he can play hard) so getting the first or second pick to draft a big guy is crucial.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Mavs/Lakers Outlook

     
As the Mavericks and the Lakers square off in Dallas tonight for the first since their series clinching game last season, the two teams look vastly different. Besides the key swap of Lamar Kardashian from L.A. to Dallas, there is a sudden influx of whiteness on the Lakers bench, and a few integral pieces in the Mavericks’ title run missing. But, which of the two teams to win the last 3 titles (and 5 of the last 6 Western Conference championships) is better suited for a deep playoff run this year?

             Lamar Kardashian (that’s what he shall be called with the way he has reality-tv-icized his life just as a member of family) is the swing vote in a sense. He had provided the Lakers were flexibility and depth as he could play almost any position on the basketball court. With the combination of him and Bynum/Gasol the Lakers had seemed unbeatable for the past 4 seasons until the sweep last May. Now, in a Mavericks uniform, Lamar was thought to bring the same sort of dynamics to Dallas combining with Dirk and Breniandan Mahaywoodright (the triumvirate of Brendan Haywood, Ian Mahimi and Brandon Wright at center). However, halfway through the season this has been far from the case. Kardashian has seemed to be a complete bust with most contributing it to him missing Los Angeles.
                I for one, think his subpar play has more to do with the rotation and when he is used on the court. With the Lakers, when he was playing his best, he was always out there with either Kobe or Paul Gasol, making him never the primary guy. He proved with the Clippers and Heat that he just is not the alpha dog to handle that role. With the Mavericks, his main role has been to come in when Dirk and Jason Kidd are getting breathers, giving the front court a scoring punch while also having his facilitation skills put to use. On the season, the Mavericks are a +19 when he and Dirk are for the 225 minutes they are on the court at the same time. The other 459 minutes that Odom has been in, the Mavericks are a -15. The key example of this is the end of the third quarter against the Knicks on Sunday and Celtics on Monday. He was on the court with the likes of Jason Terry, Dominique Jones, Brandon Wright, and Ian Mahimi. This causes Odom to be the distributor as well as (in his mind) the number one scoring option. We all saw what happens then: quick shots without any semblance of offense, lack of transition defense, and some of the worst turnovers the team has all season. This stretch against the Knicks single handedly cost the game as the Mavs were up 10 when Dirk left the game and tied at the end of the third quarter in their 7 point loss.
               Luckily, this problem is easily solved. Just keep Dirk and/or Kidd on the court at all times with Odom. While Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, Vince Carter and Delonte West are all veterans with finals’ experience, none have the track record of Kidd and Dirk to the point that Lamar will openly defer to them. By having Kidd out there, Lamar won’t feel like he needs to control the ball as much. With Dirk out there Lamar won’t have to feel like he needs to be the number one scoring option.
              What the absence of Lamar Kardashian has done to the Lakers is far more meaningful than his impact with the Mavericks. The front court has a severe lack of depth after Gasol and Bynum. The player formerly known as Ron Artest is not aging gracefully as his defense is slacking with the short schedule. Kobe has gone into 2005 mode where he is constantly shooting contested jumpers with every swish counting down to catching Kareem. There are five American white guys on their team for goodness sake. Above all else, there are the constant rumors of Dwight Howard trades (which, by the way, the reasons that the Lakers didn’t try to swap Bynum/Odom for Howard/Turkoglu’s contract with Gasol still in a package for Deron are beyond me, but thankfully they didn’t). All of this has led to a recent “players-only meeting” and sitting in the middle of a group of 9 teams separated by only 5 games for only 6 playoff spots. Albeit the Mavericks are also in that group, they at least are at the top of it. No matter how much mystical Force powers Kobe uses on the blood in his knees, he won’t be able to single handedly carry this team on a deep playoff run. The lack of depth is going to end up coming to bite them in the rear as well as the annual Andrew Bynum injury. Unless they make a move for Howard or a top point guard, they will be the little brother to Lob City this year.
The Lakers’ weakness is the Mavericks’ strength though, as Dallas plays arguably the deepest team in the league. Every person in their 10 man rotation has been injured or missed games at some point, yet they are still in great position nearing the halfway point of the season. The additions of Vince Carter and Brandon Wright have been huge as Carter has provided a better scoring option at the off guard to start and finish games and Wright has provided athleticism and energy in the post. Shawn Marion is having maybe the best season of his career as his age has not stopped his lockdown defensive ability. In a three game stretch, he slowed Chris Paul (especially limiting him in the last two minutes of crunch time), and completely shut down Ty Lawson and Jrue Holiday (combined 1-14 shooting and 5 points). His ability to mask Kidd’s lack of defensive longevity is huge, and he still chips in 12 points and over 6 rebounds a night while shooting 46% from the floor.
            The loss of Tyson Chandler and DeShawn Stevenson was supposed to hurt the team defense that the Mavericks’ used to win the title last year, but halfway through the season they lead the league in opposing field goal percentage and allow the least points per game than any time in the Western Conference. Breniandan Mahaywoodright has a good deal to do with this. Aside from the previously mentioned Wright, Haywood is having his best year as a Maverick. The numbers aren’t aesthetical (5.3 ppg, 6.7 rpg 1.1 bpg 56% shooting) but he is only playing 22 minutes a game. More importantly, he brings the presence in the rim that Chandler brought last season. Another guy who has stepped up his game to replace a player from last year is Delonte West. He has filled the hole by DeShawn Stevenson as a “do what’s needed that night” guy. Whether it’s playing for the injured Kidd, D’ing up on a hot shooter or coming in for the second Overtime and leading the team in scoring, West has been there. He also adds the bit of toughness that DeShawn had brought last year in the playoff run. This was best exemplified by the absolutely gruesome finger injury he suffered the other night, and didn’t seem much affected by it.
              The best way to look at it is the Mavericks have reloaded with talented veterans who are hungry for their first title (Carter, West) or guys looking for redemption from their former teams (Odom, Wright). The Lakers are just grasping at straws (i.e. white guys on the bench) in the hope that maybe they can still pull off a blockbuster before the trade deadline. If the Mavericks get Lamar going then they are a scary team, but even right now, most NBA fans would agree the team is deeper and more talented than the team last year at this point. The Lakers on the other hand lost their third best player and have no major upgrades to the team that got shot off the court last year. Tonight is definitely more meaningful to the Lakers in that they need to wipe the sweep from last year away. If they can, and make a move to add frontcourt depth or a point guard then they can make a run and dethrone the Mavericks. Even if that happens, Mavs’ fans just hope that it’s not Deron or Dwight because look who is set up salary-cap wise for a run those two next summer.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

What To Watch For: NFL Combine

The NFL Combine is this weekend and there will be 350 draft hopefuls trying to spew the right clichés and jargon to team officials and trying to look as athletic as possible in spandex. The fact that this one event causes so much shifting among team’s draft boards is somewhat silly, but there are a few things that can come out of placing the players in a stressful environment with only the best. The following is a short list of players who have a lot to gain or lose this weekend:

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor: RG3 said yesterday that he would participate in the majority of the speed and agility drills as well as interviews, but would not be throwing. The precedent has been for the top few quarterbacks to not throw at the combine because the thought is that they will not looks up to their potential throwing to receivers that they haven’t worked with before in a drill they are not accustomed to participating in. My theory, is don’t you think the highest player personnel minds in the sport know this too and take it into account when scouting? I think Griffin should throw in Indy to show that he’s comfortable in all situations. I mean, the worst case is he looks bad and he slips to fourth from possibly second; best case scenario is he overtakes Luck for number one. The upside greatly outweighs the downside. Unless of course, RG3 is trying to avoid the Peyton-mess with the Colts altogether anyway and would rather not be first overall (I’d advise him that route).

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M; Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State; Nick Foles, QB, Arizona; Brock Osweiler, QB, Arizona State: Barring a seismic cataclysm Luck and Griffin will be the first two quarterbacks selected in the draft, possibly with the first two selections. What is completely up in the air is the third quarterback to come off the board, and what pick this could be. All four quarterbacks should throw, but there will probably be one or two that are told to refrain and only thrown in their comfortable setting. The NFL draft tends to follow trends, and one that has happened a few times, namely 1983, 1999, 2004 and last year, is when there are a couple of elite quarterback prospects, the others in the draft get selected sooner than expected. Unless your name was Rick Gosselin, you didn’t see that many quarterbacks coming off the board in the first round last year. So there is a decent chance that teams will be looking to over-rate a quarterback in the mid to late first round and one or more of these players has the chance to take advantage of that. Tannehill will need to show that he is over his injury. Weeden will need to convince team officials that his age is not too much of a detractor and he can run a pro style offense. Foles will need to overcome his weak Senior Bowl week, and Osweiler will need to try and wow the scouts with his arm strength and height, ala Jay Cutler.

Chris Polk, RB, Washington: Just as much as the third quarterback is a toss-up at this point, the second runner after Richardson is equally perplexing. Lamar Miller probably has the slight edge after Polk had a bad week at the Senior Bowl, as one scout described him looking, “very slow to get to the edge”. If Polk can run a mid 4.5 40 or under and test well in other quickness drills then he could edge his way into the late first round.

Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State: Honestly there’s not much wiggle room in my mind for Blackmon. He’s going to go somewhere between two and five, but it will be decided by the Combine more than anything else. Many are comparing Blackmon to Michael Crabtree (Big 12, massive numbers, solid QB relationship, sling it around system) in that he might be a college wonder but an average pro. This could scare St. Louis and Minnesota with the second and third picks respectively, but with a good 40-yard dash Blackmon can silence the critics. In reality though, there’s no way he can hurt himself, as the teams drafting 2-7 all have big holes at wide receiver and even if Floyd or Jeffrey jump Blackmon, he would still be a top 10 pick.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina; Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: Jeffery is a huge body out wide already but there are thoughts that he has the penchant for not maintaining his fitness. He needs to show up looking lean, and if he does that along with put up good times in the speed drills he could push himself into the top-10 picks. Floyd has had problems with drops at Notre Dame and there are also questions of his character as a diva receiver. The interviews with the GM’s will be a huge factor in where Floyd falls on draft day. Both receivers could be picked as high as fifth depending on trades and such, but there’s been a recent trend to stay away from receivers that high with a number of busts in the top 20 the past few years (Darrius Heyward-Bey anyone?). These two have the power in their hands (and stomachs) to raise their draft stock.

Cordy Glenn, OG/OT, Georgia: Glenn is an interesting prospect in that he is the second best interior lineman in the draft, but he might be drafted to play tackle. At the senior bowl he played some on the outside, and held his own in the one-on-one drills and has some scouts drafting him to play guard at first and make the transition to tackle at some point. This kind of versatility will push his draft stock up, as tackles are much more valuable than guards. The quick feet and slide drills will help determine where Glenn is projected to be drafted as well as his position.

Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State: Adams has been climbing the draft board after his strong Senior Bowl week and is getting closer to the top tier of tackles, Matt Kalil, Riley Reiff, and Jonathon Martin. He whipped projected top-15 pick Melvin Ingram all week and showcased what was seen as his weakness against the quicker, smaller rusher. If Adams can show this firm and quick technique in the drop drills then he could push his way up into the top-15 range himself.

Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin: There’s little doubt that Konz will be the first center selected in the draft, but the pick is the question mark. Some boards have him in the low 20’s while others have him in the 50’s. The question at the combine isn’t his bench press or 40 time (although his interviews will probably help nudge him higher) but his overall health. He was diagnosed with blood clots in his lungs two years ago, so the doctors in Indy will be sure to thoroughly check into that. As a Cowboys’ fan, you want him to slide. If the ‘Boys go with a corner in the first round, Konz would be a nice second round selection. Let’s face it, if something was really wrong he wouldn’t have anchored the best offensive line in the nation (I’d say even better than the Cowboys’) the past two years. Something else to remember: they did start Konz’ BACKUP from Wisconsin last year.

Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina: Brown has a high upside as he is seen as a raw talent. With these types of players, there’s no room to improve their field awareness until they are on the field again, but with a strong 40 time as well as a good showing in other speed and agility categories, Brown could sneak his way into the first round.

Bobby Wagner, MLB, Utah State; Vontaze Burfict, MLB, Arizona State: After Dont’a Hightower, the second middle linebacker spot is a battle between these two players. Whichever player has a better overall combine will probably sneak into the late first round. Burfict will have to show in interviews that his head is all there and Wagner will have to show with his athleticism that he wasn’t just picking on lower competition at Utah State.

Dre Kirkpatrick, DB, Alabama; Janoris Jenkins, DB, North Alabama; Cliff Harris, DB, Oregon: The Combine has the largest effects on defensive backs, as the position relies on top end speed more than others. DB’s also tend to have off-the-field issues more frequently than other positions, as is the case with these three players. All three were at one time considered top 10 locks, but have since muddied their projection. Cliff Harris had many incidents at Oregon leading to his being kicked off the team, most famously telling a cop that he and Oregon QB Darron Thomas had “smoked all the weed already” after being pulled over. Jenkins was booted off the Florida team after repeated incidents with both the law and academics. Kirkpatrick is the latest bonehead of the month as he has been linked to marijuana and seen his stock slide from possible top 5 to hopeful top 20, if not worse. All three will have extensive interviews regarding their past incidents and will have to show that they are past these juvenile happenings and ready to get serious. Dallas will most likely get one of the first two as long as DeCastro doesn’t slip to them, so whomever is in the meeting (Jerry, Stephen, Jason) will hopefully get a good read on the players.

Alfonso Dennard, DB, Nebraska: Dennard is another corner who was a projected first rounder but seen his stock plummet. He had a bad Senior Bowl getting beat in one-on-ones time and again as well as injuring himself. He will have to show in the defensive back drills that he is over the injury and that the Senior Bowl was the exception, not the rule when it comes to his talent if he wants to not slip even further down into the late second, early third rounds.

Jamell Fleming, DB, Oklahoma: Fleming can increase his draft stock by doing what he’s been doing all season: staying consistent and making the other guy make the mistakes. Outside of the Texas Tech game (a fluke for the whole team) Fleming had an absolutely solid year, mainly because you never heard his name. Opposing quarterbacks figured out to just not throw his way because he was blanketed on the receiver. At the Combine, Fleming just needs to continue to have solid workouts, nothing spectacular, and hope that the above mentioned quarterbacks trip up in their interviews or recovery. If that happens, he could see himself slide up into the top 3 defensive backs. To epitomize the silliness of the Combine, Fleming has the most to gain of any player out there, yet it is because of others’ mistakes that he will move up. Yet, I’m still going to watch every second of it.

Monday, February 20, 2012

Tony Romo: Elite Quarterback?

            With the NFL Combine this week and the Draft a couple of months away, 31 sets of fans are figuring out which area their team needs improvement in the most, and 1 set of fans is figuring out what they need to stay on top.  With all 5 of the top rated quarterbacks in the draft having Texas ties, the inevitable debate springs up again among Cowboy fans: what to do with Tony Romo.  Now I have always been a Romo fan and defended him in most accounts, and I agree that there are better quarterbacks in the league.  However, I still firmly believe you can win a Super Bowl with Romo as your quarterback.
            No one can deny that Tony Romo has the statistics of an elite quarterback.  This is when all of the Romo-haters say that playing quarterback isn’t all about stats (although they bring in stats to say why others are better, passing yards, interceptions, playoff wins, etc.).  However, a quick comparison of the statistics is enlightening:
QB
Yards
Comp %
TD's
INT
Rating
% Sacked
A
4,643
68.3
45
6
122.5
6.54
B
5,476
71.2
46
14
110.6
3.52
C
5,235
65.6
39
12
105.6
4.98
D
4,184
66.3
31
10
102.5
6.45
E
5,038
63.5
41
16
97.2
5.15
F
4,933
61
29
16
92.9
4.53
G
4,077
63.2
21
14
90.1
7.12


With no names attached I’d say it’s hard to distinguish who is who among the supposed “elite” quarterbacks in the league from Tony Romo (the ones that have won Super Bowls, and Matt Stafford because when you throw for 5K in a season you’re elite, period).  Tony Romo (D) may have fewer yards than the other quarterbacks, but he also threw the ball a hundred times less than the others except for Aaron Rodgers (A).  Romo also had a better completion percentage than Tom Brady (C) and fewer interceptions than Brady, Brees (B), Stafford (E), Eli Manning (F) or Ben Roethlisberger (G).  That’s always been a knock on Romo that he can’t take care of the ball and now the only guy taking care of it better had to post the all time record quarterback rating to do it.
            That’s another thing to look at: Rodgers, Brees, Brady, and Stafford had 4 of the best seasons in the history of football and Romo is right up there with them.  He also did this while being sacked on a higher percentage of his dropbacks than the others except Rodgers (Big Ben’s came from the ankle injury which forced many of his sacks).  There’s not an accurate statistic for how many times a quarterback is hurried over the season, but I’d find it hard to believe that Romo didn’t also lead in that category as well.
What I really take out of this is that Romo is capable of leading a team to the Super Bowl if the rest of these guys did.  Cue the Romo-Haters with how much he single handedly loses games, just as in this past season against the Jets and Lions.  Let’s start with opening night against the Jets.  He had the key fumble on the one yard line (one of only three he lost all season, another forward progression for him) while trying to score.  Does he need to take care of the ball in that situation of being up 7 in the fourth quarter? Well obviously yes, but I’m never going to get mad at him for trying to make a play at the one yard line.  Later in the season he passed up the opportunity to run it in and cost the team 4 points in a game it lost by 3.  I’d rather him go for the 7 every time.  Then there was the late interception to Revis.  Of course Romo isn’t going to call out his receiver, but it was pretty obvious that Dez Bryant was supposed to cut off his route against the bracket coverage, just as he had done earlier in the game and out fought Revis for the ball on the same exact play.
The Lions game was a whole different story.  He was integral in getting the Cowboys into position to blow the 35-3 lead to being with.  Now he did throw 3 costly interceptions with two being returned for touchdowns.  The first two, though, should not have even been called.  I’m still curious why Garrett was throwing the ball on first down up 32, but we can still place the blame on Romo’s shoulders.  So he lost one game for his team in which he threw nearly a third of his interceptions for the entire season in one half.  Drew Brees threw 3 picks against the lowly Buccaneers and gave up a loss last season.  Brady threw three to blow a 21 point lead against the Buffalo Bills to lose a game last year as well.  Stafford had a 4 interception game against the Bears to get beat by 24.  Manning had 2 games in which he threw 3 interceptions in each and led the Champs to lose to non-playoff teams.  Every “elite” quarterback that doesn’t wear a Discount Double Check had at least one game where he cost his team; it’s just part of football.  At least Romo’s bad game was to a playoff team and he followed it with a streak of 23 quarters and only one interception (which was when Marty B decided to volley the ball into the defender’s hands).
Then there is the beaten down December/January failures.  Whether it was Marion barber fumbling three times against the Eagles, the defense allowing Laron McLain to look like Eric Dickerson in the last game at Texas Stadium, or the entire secondary forgetting what pursuit angles are on Victor Cruz, it’s always Romo’s fault when the Cowboys lose late in the season.  But this past season, what was his fault?  Did he ice his kicker twice, forcing two losses?  He tried to come back against the Eagles but the game didn’t matter anyway.  Against the Giants the second time, the offensive line allowed a free rusher almost every drop back.  And with all of that, he put his team in position to win the division if Miles Austin doesn’t lose the ball in the lights (that should not have even been overhead, but apparently the roof of Cowboys Stadium is broken).
Lastly, if someone thinks that quarterback is an area of concern with regards to the depth chart of this team, then he or she doesn’t know anything about football.  In some sort of descending order, interior offensive line, safety, corner, defensive end and middle linebacker are all more vital in improving than quarterback.  The only position that is clearly in better shape on the team is wide receiver, and even that might come into question if Laurent Robinson isn’t resigned.  By my count that’s about half of the starters on the team that should be upgraded before even discussing quarterback.
So please, enough with the “we gotta’ get rid of Romo” talk. I’m not saying the Cowboys would have won the Super Bowl had Austin caught that pass, but can you say they wouldn’t have?  They were given the same odds as the Giants were going into the last game of the regular season.  He is clearly a top 10 quarterback, if not top 5 right now, which to me would make him “elite”.  Let’s remember what happened just before last season when a quarterback had the confidence to say that he belonged in that category.