Friday, January 25, 2013

Please Stop Talking About Tyson

I am absolutely fed up with the ignorance and short-sightedness that comes with Mavericks’ “Fans” acting like if Dallas had kept Tyson Chandler then they would be about to win their third straight title.  Not only is that an absolute pipe dream, it also shows the greed that Dallas fans have developed.  I mean, a year ago the Mavs were raising the banner, do you not remember?  Now you want to second guess and criticize ownership/management.  The first thing to do is dispel the theory that Tyson Chandler can be a centerpiece to an NBA title team. 
“But Michael, the Mavs won it all with Tyson as a key part!” 
Like I have said previously, Chandler was probably the fourth or fifth most important reason that Dallas won that year.  His lack of an offensive game besides alley-oops and put-back dunks cannot carry a team in today’s NBA.  He has never even averaged 12 points a game for the season!  Not only that, but he has only one season averaging a double-double. 
“But he is the Defensive Player of the Year!” 
Tyson is not even in the top 35 in blocked shots this season, nor has he ever averaged over two a game.  He has upped his rebounding average, and he still is a top 15 defensive player, but his effect on the game is not strong enough to overcome his offensive deficiency.  He does affect many shots, and his rotations are usually spot-on, but he largely won the award last season because of the playoffs the year before.  By the way, only three times has the Defensive Player of the Year won the NBA title the same year, and only Ben Wallace was an offensive burden (but they had four other All-Stars around him). 
“But the Knicks are at the top of the East with him!”
New York has a Top-4 in the East roster without Tyson Chandler.  For comparisons sake, let’s look at the Mavericks’ roster if they had kept Tyson compared to the Knicks now.  Carmelo is far and away better than Dirk now, with the injuries and age factors.  There is no OJ Mayo here with Tyson’s big contract, so JET and his washed up jumper (42% FG/35% 3P) is the second best player.  J.R. Smith is a taller, more athletic, younger, and better defensive version of JET.  Raymond Felton has taken the next step to becoming a high-level point guard, and Amare Stoudemire is coming off the bench.  Ya know, Amare Stoudemire who would be the Mavs’ second best player right now.  Besides, last year with Tyson, Amare and Melo, the Knicks got just as far as the Mavs: first round defeat.  The fact of the matter is Chandler is a role player on the Knicks, and even then it does not automatically equal a contender.  He would have to be the second fiddle in Dallas.
“But Dallas won it all once! Why couldn’t they do it again?”
Need I remind you how lucky Dallas got on that playoff run?  They earned and deserved the championship, but the stars were perfectly aligned.  They got an over-rated Portland team that was a good matchup.  They then got to play the Lakers who showed their implosion factor during game four of that series, as well as Pau Gasol no-showing due to off-the-court issues.  Dallas then played the Thunder, whose top four players were all just 22/23 years old and not quite ready for the big time yet.  Lastly, the Mavericks played the Heat when they were still figuring out how to play together.  Miami did not yet add the perfect complimentary pieces they have since (Battier, Miller, Allen) and LeBron was still playing second fiddle.  If LeBron would have taken over (like last year’s playoffs) the Mavs would not have stood a chance.  There was no way that the Dallas title team could have beaten OKC or Miami last year, Tyson Chandler or not.  Nor would they be able to beat the top teams now, who have only gotten better.
“But if we at least had Tyson, then he could be used as a trade chip!”
While this argument actually has merit, the basis on which the signing would have happened would have been completely illogical.  Dallas would have had to have ESP to know that Dwight Howard would choose to not opt out of his last year, starting a domino effect that really hamstrung the Mavericks’ plans.  Deron and Dwight wanted to play together.  Period.  The only places possible were Dallas and Houston, with both openly preferring Dallas.  The Orlando/National media pushed Dwight into making the bad decision to not opt out because he does not want to be seen as the bad guy.  If he does, then the Mavs have all three D’s playing right now, and no one would be talking about Tyson Chandler. 
Furthermore, does no one else remember Tyson Chandler before his season in Dallas?  Ten years, where he missed at least 12% of the season in seven of them, over half of the year in three of them.  So by signing Tyson Chandler, you would have been saying that you are going to go to battle with him as your second best player (which to keep him you would have had to pay him that much).  No championship team since the Celtics with Bill Russell has had a second best player who averaged less than 15 points a game.  It is just the facts.  Imagine if they had signed Chandler, and Dirk would have been hurt the past couple of seasons.  It could have gotten ugly without Kaman/Carter/Mayo/Brand this year, which none of them (maybe Carter) would have been here with Chandler.
So please stop acting like the Mavs threw away Dirk’s prime or more titles.  They did not.  They set the team up for the future, rather than rolling the dice on a guy who can’t score three points a quarter with a lengthy injury history.  If Dwight Howard would have made his decision sooner, then maybe the Mavs keep him for the trade purposes he would now be helpful with.  However, Donnie Nelson and Mark Cuban went with the more likely option of signing a superstar free agent or just keeping their options open rather than being stuck with an injury-plagued offensive-liability with a max contract.  For goodness sakes, we just got to experience a title a year and a half ago.  Trust in the front office to take the Mavs back.

Sunday, January 20, 2013

NFL Championship Weekend Picks


As I said in the opening last week, the Divisional Playoff Round is by far the toughest to handicap.  Even when you have the team right, and they dominating for over 50 minutes, they have to come back and win but no cover.  Or the team that you have as the hottest coming into the game decides to give the game away at both ends of the half.  Then there is always the second year quarterback in his first playoff game that decides he wants to run like Randall Cunningham in Tecmo Super Bowl (and for those are who are acting like they knew Kaepernick was going to do that, please go bury your head in sand).
The trend from last week was solid at 2-1, I just picked the wrong 1.  I had no idea that the Green Bay defense decided to, you know, not prepare for the running aspect of the dual-threat quarterback they were facing.  The most outstanding trend of the championship round: there is usually at least one blowout.  There is not much other precedent, especially with a number 1 seed, at home, getting over a field goal.


FALCONS +4 over 49ers
So the Falcons dominate the Seahawks for the majority of the game, and then came through to pull it out in the end, but they are four point underdogs, at home, to a team that just got blown out of the building by that same Seahawks team just three weeks ago?  Lest I remind you that the last time Colin Kaepernick was on the road, he only completed 52% of his passes, with an interception, a quarterback rating of 72, and only 31 yards rushing?  The value here is too much to pass up, even if you think that San Francisco is just that much better than Atlanta.  The Falcons’ money line at +175 looks appetizing.

PATRIOTS -8 over Ravens
Tom Brady/Bill Belichick do not lose games like this.  Couple that with the blowout potential in the championship round, and the fact that the old Ravens defense had to play almost an extra half last week, and this one could get out of hand.  I expect the Patriots to put Welker in a position to have Ray Lewis cover him, in which Welker will dominate.  The eight is somewhat scary, and it might be worth buying to 7 in case of a backdoor cheap touchdown, but the Pats are definitely the play here.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Falcons +14, Falcons/49ers Over 37, Patriots +2

Props:
+450 Tony Gonzales to score first for Atlanta/+800 for the game
That seems too high

+140 Atlanta to score Last in the game
Either they will be playing catch up, or they will need the score to win

+125 Will there be a score in the first five minutes of the NE/BAL Game: Yes
The big play potential of Baltimore plus the hurry-up of the Patriots with odds in my favor? Thank you.

EVEN -.5 More points score in the second half SF/ATL
I’m sure the Falcons have some sort of defense to stop Kaepernick, so they 49ers will need a half to figure it out.

Over 46.5 Longest touchdown in SF/ATL game
Kaepernick, Moss, Crabtree, Davis, White, Rodgers and Julio Jones.

-150 San Francisco penalized first
The Falcons are the least penalized team in the league.

Under 14 Largest lead in the SF/ATL game
I feel like it will be close.

Under 66.5 Rushing yards for Colin Kaepernick
Before last week, in his seven games as a starter he only passed this total once.

Over 80.5 Receiving yards for Michael Crabtree
He has topped this total in five of his last six games, and the other game was close.

-210 Matt Ryan will throw a touchdown before an interception
He does not throw many interceptions, and I think Matty Ice is making the leap.

+800 49ers lead at the half, Falcons win the game
Those odds are awfully high and Matty Ice is full of comeback

Over 48.5 Longest touchdown in the NE/BAL game
Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Smith, Boldin, Flacco, Rice.  A lot of big play potential.

+160 New England scores in all four quarters
Seems like a likely outcome.


Last Week: 1-3

Playoffs: 5-3

Overall: 149-107-6

Saturday, January 12, 2013

NFL Divisional Round Picks


A strong start to the playoffs, with a 4-0 week, but the divisional round is usually the hardest to handicap.  The problem with the divisional round, is that there were common trends for years about the home team, or rematches, but all have been de-bunked in the past four to five years.  Home teams, better seeds, and teams that are hotter do not show any trends.  However, I did found one trend that is especially useful this week.  Since the current postseason format was adopted, there have been 31 teams to lose in week 17, but then win a home wild card playoff game.  Those 31 teams proceeded to go 3-28 straight up and 6-24-1 against the number.  The Packers, Ravens, and Texans all fit that bill and two of the three are prohibitive underdogs to teams that have already put the beat down on them earlier this season.

BRONCOS -8.5 over Ravens
Now this line opened at 8.5, was pushed all the way to 10, but has settled back at 8.5.  If it was at ten still, I would have a much tougher decision, but I love Denver here.  Some people have pointed out the cold and how Peyton Manning is not that good in the cold previously.  Well he is still Peyton Manning and Joe Flacco is still Joe Flacco.  I think the Ravens expended their emotional energy last week winning that last game for Ray.  Even if they made it last, I do not seem them lasting another week, so I will stick with Denver.

Packers +3 over 49ERS
Now I know I just talked up this huge trend and everything… but watching the replay of the 2005 Draft scene and the look on Aaron Rodgers’ face when they picked Alex Smith first… Do you realize that over the past two seasons, Aaron Rodgers has thrown 84 touchdowns and only 14 interceptions? Brady’s best over two years: 75/16, Manning’s best: 78/20; Marino’s best: 78/38; Favre’s: 77/26.  That’s pretty dominant, and now he gets to go back to his hometown, to play the team that passed over him?  Lock.

FALCONS -3 over Seahawks
Atlanta is the first ever 13-3 #1 Seed that everyone is overlooking.  The Seahawks are not a good road team, and are being over-rated for beating one of the worst playoff teams in recent memory with a gimpy quarterback.  I saw a stat from Adam Schefter comparing another quarterback to Matt Ryan’s first five seasons:

Matt Ryan: completed 62.7 percent of his passes for 18,957 yards, with a 127-60 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio and a won-loss record of 56-22

Quarterback B: completed 62 percent of his passes for 20,618 yards, with a 138-100 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio and a 42-38 record

In Quarterback B’s fifth season, he won his first playoff game and went to the conference championship game.  Quarterback B? Peyton Manning.  I am in no way saying Ryan is as good as Manning, but he is vastly under-rated and I think he might make the leap this Sunday, considering he is 35-5 in the Georgia Dome.

PATRIOTS -9.5 over Texans
Before seeing that trend stat from the opening, I was tempted by the Texans seeing that Tom Brady/Belichick are 1-6 over their last seven playoff games against the spread, and 2-7-1 against the number with an extra week of rest.  So in reality, it is a battle of two pretty strong trends.  What it came down to for me is Matt Schaub sucks.  Schaub has the second best running back, a top-4 wide receiver, the best offensive line, and arguably the best defense over the past 4 seasons and he has one playoff win.  Matt Schaub just has to not lose games for Houston, unlike Tony Romo who HAS to win the game for Dallas.  Schaub will find a way to lose this one.

10-Point Teaser of the Week: Patriots -.5, Broncos +1.5, Packers +7

Last Week: 4-0

Playoffs: 4-0

Overall: 148-104-6

Saturday, January 5, 2013

NFL Wild Card Round Picks


A tough .500 week to end the regular season, but as I said last week, the majority of the games last week were un-bettable.  Now playoff betting is a whole different animal than regular season games.  Proven trends in the playoffs have more weight than the regular season, such as home-field advantage being stronger and young quarterbacks struggling.  Those two trends in particular will come in to play this weekend with three of the toughest playoff home fields and five quarterbacks in their first or second year. 
Only four rookie quarterbacks have taken their teams to the playoffs and won a game in the past 25 years, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez and Shaun King.  All four had the benefit of a dominant defense and veteran leadership all around them.  Only one of the three rookies this year has something close to that, Russell Wilson. 
Second year quarterbacks do not fare much better in the playoffs, with slightly more wins, but only two (Roethlisberger and Brady) have won a Super Bowl in the past 25 years.  Both of them, once again, had extremely good defenses and even better schemes.  This puts the chances of Andy Dalton and Christian Ponder winning playoff games down. 
            With that last stat, I lead into my playoff betting theory, specifically for pools where you pick the entire playoffs (which I will predict at the end of this piece).  My theory is similar to that of my March Madness Pool in that you want to minimize your risk, and use trends to identify a team or two that you think has the best chances to win.  You cannot just go with who has looked better or who has the better players, because we all know that neither of those really ever play out.  So when you are picking each playoff game, look at the trends for the teams in that game alone, and ask yourself which team has a better chance of winning the Super Bowl from that point forward.
            For example, even if you think the Colts are going to win this weekend but have no shot of winning the Super Bowl behind a rookie quarterback and tattered defense, it might be better to pick the Ravens.  Baltimore has proven veterans all over the field, a strong coaching staff, an experienced quarterback, and the intangible “Win It For Ray” movement that give them a decent Super Bowl chance.  So even if you think the Colts might win, the cost of not picking the Ravens could ruin your bracket in the first round.  With that said, let’s get to the Wild Card picks.

TEXANS -4.5 over Bengals
Both major trends are in play with a strong Houston home-field advantage (12-4 over the past two years at home) and the Bengals starting Dalton.  The Bengals have a decent defense, but at the same time Terrance Newman and Pacman Jones are getting significant playing time.  In no way do those two signify the dominant defenses that young quarterbacks have ridden in the past.  While Houston may be in a slump, the odds of Cincinnati winning at Denver or New England are pretty long.  The Texans, on the other hand, have already won once at Denver and could ride a win here to a long playoff run.

PACKERS -8 over Vikings
Almost the same trend-situation as the previous game with one of the most dominant home fields in the history of football (as well as 22-2 over the past three seasons) and a quite incompetent second year quarterback.  While Adrian Peterson is in a zone like no running back ever outside of a Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson, if Minnesota gets behind he is effectively neutralized.  I mean, would you want to have to count on Christian Ponder throwing for a significant amount of yards, on the road, at Lambeau, in a playoff game?  Aaron Rodgers is playing possibly his best football ever right now which should scare the rest of the league.

RAVENS -6.5 over Colts
If this were a regular season game, I would be all over Indy getting nearly a touchdown.  Since it is the playoffs though, I would probably stay away from betting the line on this game, but stick to the Ravens money-line.  For some of the reasons stated above, as well as the ridiculous amount of luck that the Colts have received this season, (recovered almost 85% of fumbles, easiest schedule in the league, undefeated in games decided by less than a touchdown) it will run out at some point.  I do not like giving almost a touchdown with Joe Flacco either, but Baltimore is a serious contender with Ray Lewis’ motivational techniques as well as a strong home field (21-3 over the last three seasons).

Seahawks -3 over REDSKINS
This line has moved drastically over the week, with all of the money on Seattle.  Washington has the worst home field of any of the playoff teams (9-15 over the last three seasons) and both teams have rookie quarterbacks.  The main difference is the staunch Seattle defense compared to the Redskins’ 28th ranked unit.  Against an NFL-level front seven, the Redskins will not have as much success running the ball causing RG3 to have to win games with his arm.  I do not see that happening in the playoffs with the intensity ratcheted up.  This one could get ugly.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Seahawks +7, Colts +16.5, Packers +2

Playoff Predictions:
Divisional Round:
AFC: Broncos over Ravens, Patriots over Ravens
NFC: Packers over 49ers, Falcons over Seahawks

Conference Championships:
AFC: Broncos over Patriots
NFC: Packers over Falcons

Super Bowl:
31-28: Packers over Broncos
I think I picked the wrong NFC North team pre-season, at least I got six division winners correct of the eight.

Last Week: 8-8

Overall: 144-104-6