American League Preview and End of the Year Predictions

A.L. Central

Detroit Tigers, 91-71

Chicago White Sox, 81-81

Kansas City Royals, 79-83

Cleveland Indians, 78-84

Minnesota Twins, 65-97

            The American League Central figures to be the weakest division in all of baseball, as I doubt anyone besides the Tigers will finish the season above .500.  The other two A.L. divisions are much stronger and will prey on the weaker foes of the Central.  With that said the Tigers are the returning champions of the league and are in a good position to contend again.  With a fully healthy Victor Martinez, Detroit has more pop 3-5 than anyone else in the league after Cabrera and Fielder.  If Austin Jackson can continue to improve his overall game and maybe up his OBP (projected .340), and if Torii Hunter can fight off the age bug another year than this lineup can do some serious damage.  The Tigers’ pitching will be their strength with best-pitcher-on-the-planet nominee Justin Verlander headlining.  The criminally under-rated Max Scherzer will combine with Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello for a starting rotation that will definitely strike some people out.  The one weakness of the Tigers will be their bullpen as embattle closer Jose Valverde is gone, and rookie phenom Bruce Rondon was deemed not ready yet for the big league.

            The White Sox made a run last year, but could not hold of Detroit.  Can they do it again?  I am thinking no, as Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn are each one more year closer to the end, and Alex Rios is due for a serious regression back to his career norms.  They also lost Kevin Youkilis out of the lineup, and replaced him with youth; unproven, but still youth.  Gordon Beckham has never really taken off like he projected coming out of Georgia, but he still has time.  Chris Sale was the rookie surprise last year for the rotation but the heavy workload has to worry some White Sox fans.  Jake Peavy will probably act as the de facto ace, with Dylan Axelrod, Jose Quintana and Gavin Floyd rounding out the rotation.  Addison Reed will start the season as their closer, but I would not be surprised if Matt Thornton took the job by mid-season.

            The Royals have more upside than the White Sox with a much higher ceiling for this year.  However, they also are depending on youth which may be a year away.  The lineup is getting quite potent with Salvador Perez establishing himself as a top-6 catcher and Billy Butler continuing his .300/.375/.475 triple slash career.  Eric Hosmer is going to bounce back from a rough 2012.  The name to watch out for is Lorenzo Cain, a potential 25/25 guy if he stays healthy.  If that happens, this team can make a run for a playoff berth.  What that will hinge on as well as the rotation being serviceable.  The lineup is good enough to get by, but newly acquired James Shields will have to pitch like an ace (something he has never done outside of a dome).  Jeremy Guthrie and Ervin Santana also will need to be better than projected (4.65 and 5.03 FIP respectively).  I still think this team is one year, and one top-line starting pitcher away from really contending. 

            The Indians have built their lineup with speed up top (Michael Bourn/Asdrubal Cabrera/Jason Kipnis projected 80 SB) and power right behind it (Nick Swisher/Carlos Santana/Mark Reynolds projected 80 HR).  The bottom of the lineup is solid, but not great.  It could be better if Lonnie Chisenhall makes a leap and Drew Stubbs bounces back.  The problem for Cleveland will be their hapless rotation.  They Indians top-4 starters are all guys who have seen better days.  I am not a believer in Justin Masterson and think he is due for some regression.  Ubaldo Jimenez has never captured that cutter that was so dominant for him in Colorado.  Brett Myers seemed alright on a bad team with no pressure but has not proven his self in the clutch.  Scott Kazmir has not had a 2.0 WAR season in years.  The bullpen is a mess as well, with Chris Perez in danger of losing his job to young Vinnie Pestano.

            The Twins lineup features their two former MVP-caliber players Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, but neither is still playing at that level.  Mauer still hits for average, but has lost all power.  Morneau struggles to stay on the field and has seen his triple slash drop greatly (.264/.336/.432).  Left Fielder Josh Willingham looks to have some promise, but with the likes of Brian Dozier and Aaron Hicks (average OBP of .307) there might not be much on base.  The rotation is fully devoid of a top 1 or even 2 pitcher.  Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Correia, Cole De Vries, and Liam Hendriks.  Do those five do anything for you?  Me neither.  This is going to be a long season in the Twin Cities.

A.L. East

Tampa Bay Rays, 90-72

Toronto Blue Jays, 88-74

New York Yankees, 82-80

Baltimore Orioles, 78-84

Boston Red Sox, 77-85

            What has been recently been the best division in baseball seems to have taken a step back this year.  I think the Rays will emerge from the throng simply due to continuity and health.  Evan Longoria will give them 30 homers, 100 RBI and an average around .280 as I see him having a full and healthy season.  Ben Zobrist will continue playing 37 different positions and hitting 20 home runs.  The addition of Kelly Johnson also gives this team a little more pop.  However the difference maker will be Desmond Jennings.  His first full year was disappointing, but I think he figures it out, hits 20 home runs, steals 50 bases and provides plus-plus defense in center field.  The rotation remains strong with Ace David Price leading the way.  Matt Moore has too much talent to not regress upwards and Jeremy Hellickson is a sneaky good starter.  Fernando Rodney is still there to shut down the ninth and the Joel Madden is still there with his wacky ways of winning.

            The Toronto Blue Jays went all-in this winner, acquiring almost every big name to switch teams.  The Blue Jays added Jose Reyes who becomes the best shortstop in the league.  Melky Cabrera was on a triple-crown pace until his suspension last year, and he is projected to go 20/20 and hit above .300.  They join arguably the best power combo in the bigs with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.  Should Brett Lawrie bounce back from last year and J.P. Arencibia progress this may be the most dangerous lineup in the league.  The starting rotation received a makeover, adding Cy Young knuckleballer R.A. Dickey and former Cy Young runner-up Josh Johnson.  Brandon Morrow is due for a bounce-back year, especially without the pressure of being the ace of the staff.  The very under-rated addition of mark Buehrle will also help ease the burden on a shallow bullpen.

            The Yankees have been decimated by injuries in the spring and will be in a big hole that I do not think they can climb out of.  They are so desperate that they are willing to pay the majority of Vernon Wells’ remaining contract.  Robinson Cano will still be there being a top-10 player in the league with 30-100-.302 but the rest of their lineup will be a huge question mark to start the season.  Ichiro and Youkilis are both trending downward due to age, and Brett Gardner is basically a one-tool player.  The pitching staff is the worst it has been in years after C.C. Sabathia.  I think Phil Hughes is over-rated/projected and Hiroki Kuroda was not able to match his season in the cavernous Dodger Stadium.  Andy Pettite’s age will catch up at some point.  Mariano Rivera is back, but they still have to get the lead to give it to him.

            The Orioles surprised everyone, even themselves, in making the playoffs last year.  However, I believe the clock has struck midnight.  The Orioles played with an expected win total well below their actual win total which brings us back to my new favorite word for baseball: regression.  That type of good luck is unsustainable unless you are my fiancé’s mother chasing an inside straight.  I do like some of the pieces such as Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy and even *gulp* Chris Davis.  They will have power and Manny Machado should progress into a top-quality third baseman in time.  Their rotation on the other hand, is brutal.  Wei-Yin Chen had a career year but pitched a lot of innings.  Jason Hammel might be the worst number-1 in the league.  Dylan Bundy is not quite ready for the big leagues yet.  Jim Johnson will still be a solid closer, but will have a lot less opportunity.

            The post fried chicken and beer Red Sox enjoyed their worst season in more than a decade and it is only going to get worse.  The additions of Mike Napoli (if healthy and not swinging for the fences every time) and Shane Victorino combined with the emergence of Will Middlebrooks (23 HR/81 RBI) give the lineup a much needed boost.  Jacoby Ellsbury will have trouble living up to his projection of 16 HR/31 SB if he cannot stay on the field.  Ortiz and Pedroia will produce in their own ways, but not enough to carry the pitiful pitching staff.  The Red Sox still have an ace in Jon Lester, but Clay Buchholz and Felix Doubront are over-valued and over-rated.  Ryan Dempster and John Lackey are old and barely replacement level.  The Sox do not have the fire-power to contend with the rest of the east anymore and will bottom out completely this season.

A.L. West

Los Angeles Angels, 92-70

Texas Rangers, 91-71

Oakland Athletics, 84-78

Seattle Mariners, 77-85

Houston Astros, 55-107

I have been avoiding writing this part because for the first time in a few years I do not see the Rangers winning the division.  With the addition of Josh Hamilton the lineup is just too potent to ignore.  Mike Trout will not have a season near as good as last year, as his BABIP was an outrageous .383, and that will come down towards his career average of .350ish.  However, the regression with Trout will be made up by Hamilton.  I mean this lineup has three guys who have won or finished second in MVP voting in the past few years.  The Pitching is a little less daunting thanks to Greinke joining the Dodgers.  C.J. Wilson is douche due for regression back towards a quality year and Jered Weaver is still a good ace.  Tommy Hanson, if healthy, is an under-rated part of the rotation, since his last full season without injury he was a 4.2 WAR pitcher.  Ernesto Frieri is a strong closer and Ryan Madson and Scott Downs give the Angels a good set-up combo.

The main argument for Texas over the Angels is the lack of depth in LA.  However, the Rangers had depth last year and the injuries still killed their rotation in the end.  There is just no denying the 40/100 that will be missing from the middle of the lineup, either.  Berkman will hopefully bring back a portion of that power, but he is getting old.  Craig Gentry and David Murphy stand to benefit from being near every day players, but still nowhere near what Hambone had been providing.  If Nelson Cruz gets a 50-game suspension, then this lineup could be in trouble, especially if Olt and Profar are not quite ready yet.  The pitching is what really worries me.  Although I think very highly of Yu Darvish, and Derek Holland/Matt Harrison are above-average starters for their slots, the last two spots are question marks.  Can Alexi Ogando put up 160 quality innings?  When will Colby Lewis be back?  Who the hell is Nick Tepesch?  The bullpen is no strength either.  Joe Nathan is the all-time save percentage leader, but he is also a year older.  Gone are Mike Adams and Koji Uehara.  Robbie Ross will be asked a lot of, especially until Joakim Soria comes back from Tommy John surgery, and when he comes back how good will he be?  The lineup is still top-5 in the majors, and good enough to get this team to the playoffs, but the pitching after the top-3 is just too troublesome to see this team winning the division.

I am sorry; I just do not see how some are picking this Oakland team to repeat the miracle that was the end of last season.  They have one guy projected to hit over .246.  One.  Their lineup just will not win games for this team, as they just have a few guys with pop (Cespedes/Moss/Reddick) and no complete hitters.  The rotation is what the A’s will rely on, and this group was heavily worked last season which is never good for young arms.  We, in Texas, saw the regressive year by the Dutch Oven after a heavy workload year, and I expect the same from Brett Anderson, Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone and A.J. Griffin.  One or two of them might have good years, but for the A’s to contend again they will need all four.  Oakland will get above .500 because the Astros suck, but I do not think they can contend again.

I’m tempted to switch the Mariners and A’s because the Seattle lineup is growing on me.  The additions of Michael Morse (22 HR, 75 RBI, .281 AVG), Michael Saunders (17 HR/18 SB) and Kendry Morales (22 HR/.275 AVG) have completely remade the top/middle of the lineup.  Kyle Seager is poised for a solid year and Jesus Montero will crank 20 bombs in the shorter fences of Safeco.  If Justin Smoak and/or Dustin Ackley can finally hit their potential, this lineup could be dangerous.  King Felix has been a dominant force in the A.L. for years, but he just recently received a big contract.  I am worried about how that will affect his desire to still dominate.  The rest of the rotation is void of any fantasy value or real value either.  Blake Beaven has not made good on his promise and Joe Saunders is only slightly above replacement level.

I am seriously struggling on how to write about the Astros.  Outside of Jose Altuve, no one on the roster is projected to hit above .240.  Outside of Carlos Pena, no one on the roster is projected to hit more than 10 home runs.  I do not care how many they hit in spring training; this team is going to suck.  Badly.  The rotation is full of castoffs and Bud Norris who only strikes people out and gives up home runs.  Phillip Humber and Erik Bedard’s best days are behind them.  I believe I thought the record for losses in for a season was in play last year and nothing has changed.

Awards:

A.L. MVP: Evan Longoria

Runner-Up: Miguel Cabrera

I think Longoria will stay healthy this season and out-slug Cabrera to the MVP. 

N.L. MVP: Bryce Harper

Runner-Up: Ryan Braun

Need I remind you that Bryce Harper was more highly touted than Mike Trout, and he had a better season at age 19 than him?  Ryan Braun will continue to do his thing despite the allegations.

A.L. Cy Young: Yu Darvish

Runner-Up: Justin Verlander

YUUUUUU!!! He will lead the majors in strikeouts by a wide margin, and he will drop his walk total down, therefore lowering his other metrics and getting him 20 wins.  Verlander will be right with him.

N.L. Cy Young: Zack Greinke

Runner-Up: Clayton Kershaw

As I said previously, I am on the Dodgers bandwagon and I think Greinke will out duel his new teammate.

A.L. Rookie of the Year: Wil Myers

Runner-Up: Jurickson Profar

Both will be called up shortly and both will produce immensely.  Myers will get the edge because he will get more playing time.

N.L. Rookie of the Year: Adam Eaton

Runner-Up: Oscar Taveras

The Diamondbacks gave up on Upton to make room for Eaton and he will at least provide a good rookie year.

Playoffs:

A.L. Wild Card: Blue Jays over Rangers

N.L. Wild Card: Braves over the Reds

A.L. Divisional Round: Blue Jays over Angels 3-2; Tigers over Rays 3-2

N.L. Divisional Round: Dodgers over Brewers 3-2; Nationals over Braves 3-1

A.L. Championship: Tigers over Blue Jays 4-3

N.L. Championship: Dodgers over Nationals 4-2

World Series: Dodgers over Tigers 4-2

I just think the one-two combo of Greinke and Kershaw will be too much to overcome.  That combo, along with the bounce-back/healthy years from Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford will lead the blue to the title.

National League Preview

With only four more sleeps until the first baseball game that really matters, I thought I needed to breakdown the outlook for the season.  Last year my predictions were slightly off with the resurgence of the A’s and Orioles, but my sleeper pick was right on (the Pirates) until an injury-riddled collapse.  I also thought no team would beat the Rangers in a multi-game playoff series and that was correct…

Anyway, I thought I would start off with the lesser of two leagues, the NL.  Somehow, the National League champion has defeated a much deeper and well-rounded AL squad in three straight World Series’, but with that said it would be a tough argument that the overall quality of the league is lacking (even with the hapless Astros now in the AL).

All records are my own predictions for the upcoming season, and all triple slash numbers are consensus projections:

N.L. West

Los Angeles Dodgers, 90-72

San Francisco Giants, 86-76

Arizona Diamondbacks, 84-78

Colorado Rockies, 70-92

San Diego Padres, 65-97

I hate to say it, but I am a believer in the Dodgers.  Adrian Gonzalez still hit .300 with 100 RBI last season in a “down-year”.  Hanley Ramirez was looking quite strong before the injury and he will be back in late April.  I also feel like Matt Kemp will be able to stay on the field and provide the MVP quality numbers of two seasons ago.  It seems that Josh Beckett has been reaching his fastball velocity of a few years ago, and they still have the best top-two pitching combo in the league with Kershaw and Greinke.  Capuano and Billingsley are solid starters and Hyun-Jin Ryu is a name to remember.  The South Korean dominated the U.S. in the 2009 WBC and he could be the next Asian pitching sensation.  When Crawford, Ramirez and Greinke are healthy, with Kemp on the field as well, this is easily the deepest team in the NL.

The defending World Champion Giants are a trendy pick to win the division, but I think they are due for regression and let-down.  After San Francisco’s 2010 triumph, the Giants followed with a non-playoff season of 86 wins.  I think they will be somewhere around there because of their “meh” lineup.  Not a single player is projected to hit over .300 or slug higher than .500.  Buster Posey is the most prime candidate for health concerns as well as plate regression.  San Francisco would need a breakout season from Belt, coupled with an injury-free Posey and their starting pitching to also remain healthy to contend.  Their top-two punch of Cain and Bumgarner is strong, but there are plenty of questions surrounding Lincecum-Vogelsong-Zito.  I also have my doubts that Sergio Romo can continue to be a front-line closer just as Brian Wilson fell off after his playoff dominance.

            Arizona finished almost seven wins below their expected total last season, so they are due for a regression back towards the top.  However, the Diamondbacks traded their best player, 25 year-old Justin Upton, and did not even get the shortstop they were looking for but rather a stop-gap at third base in Martin Prado.  I’ve never been a Prado fan, and I really feel like they missed out on a valuable asset with Upton.  Ian Kennedy and Wade Miley look to continue being quality starters, but questions surround the health of both Brandon McCarthy and Trevor Cahill.  The fifth spot could be a revolving door between Randall Delgado, Tyler Skaggs and Patrick Corbin until Daniel Hudson comes back from injury. 

            The Rockies boast the second best lineup in the division, Coors-Field-aided or not.  Dexter Fowler is a quality leadoff man, youngster Josh Rutledge is poised for a breakout season, and CarGo/Tulo offer feature speed/power combos in the middle of the lineup.  However, Colorado’s rotation leaves something to be desired.  Jhoulys Chacin would struggle to make the rotation of the top three teams and he might be the Rockies’ front-liner.  The Rockies’ experiment with a four-man rotation was a terrible idea, and their bullpen is no strong-suit with Rafael Betancourt blowing almost 20% of his save chances last season.  Pitching will be this team’s downfall yet another season.

The Padres might put themselves in a big hole to start the season without Chase Headley in the lineup.  A quick browse shows the highest projected hitter at .263 and only one other above .254 (league average).  Their starting pitching looks awful with Edinson Volquez at the top of the rotation and Jason Marquis as the second starter.  The Padres need Corey Luebke to return from injury quickly.  The schedule is not very friendly in the start of the season with two series’ a piece with the Dodgers/Giants and a series against the Brewers all in the first month.

N.L. Central

Milwaukee Brewers, 92-70

Cincinnati Reds, 88-74

St. Louis Cardinals, 82-80

Pittsburgh Pirates, 80-82

Chicago Cubs, 63-99

            Two days ago, I had the Brewers in third place, and then the Lohse signing automatically moved them to second.  After further analysis of their lineup, I am not just going to give them the division, I think they will battle the nationals for the top seed.  Everyone knows about Ryan Braun, but Milwaukee has some of the most under-rated players in the league.  Norichika Aoki (.288/.347/.398) hits lead off and offers a good blend of speed and power.  After Braun in the lineup are Aramis Ramirez (.282/.345/.499), Jonathan Lucroy (poised for a breakout year into the top tier of catchers) and Carlos Gomez (who’s 2012 season pro-rates out to 24 HR and 46 SB).  The lineup is the strongest in the division and now with Lohse headlining the rotation followed by Gallardo and Fiers the rotation has enough power to match. 

            Honestly, I am probably too low on the Reds due to them not coming through for me last season.  They added Shin-Soo Choo at the top of their lineup who can get on (.373 OBP) for Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto to knock in.  Jay Bruce is a fantasy sleeper than is about a good of a 5-hole hitter that the division can boast.  The rotation has been ironed out with Aroldis Chapman moving back to the pen, leaving Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos as the co-aces.  Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake and Homer Bailey round out the starting five that hopes to just get the game to the 7^th.  There waits the best 7-8-9 bullpen trio outside of Washington with Sean Marshall, Jonathon Broxton and Chapman. 

            St. Louis’ strength for the umpteenth consecutive year lies with their starting pitching.  After Lance Lynn’s breakout season and the emergence of Shelby Miller as the fifth starter, the Cardinals throw a quality-rich starting five to the hill.  The back-end just took a hit with Jason Motte’s injury and no one proven behind him.  The lineup is good, but not great with the same trio of Beltran/Holliday/Craig in the middle.  Look for Oscar Tevarez to be called up sooner rather than later to provide St. Louis will a little more pop.

            As weak as this division looked last season, it looks like the strongest in the league this year.  Pittsburgh will be a better team this year than it was last year.  Where does that get them?  Most likely fourth place in the division.  With the addition of Russell Martin, the Pirates have a solid lineup with emerging left fielder Starling Marte at the top followed by Neil Walker, McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Garret Jones and then Martin.  If Walker can stay healthy (he was hurt for the majority of last season’s collapse) the Pirates might have a shot but will need McCutchen to have another MVP-caliber season.  Pittsburgh’s starting pitching will also need to step up on the back end.  Jeff Karstens and Jonathan Sanchez were both promising at one point, but have fallen on harder times.  Should those two round back into form and A.J. Burnett , Wandy Rodriguez and James McDonald have similar seasons as last year, the Pirates could contend again. 

            The sole reason to watch the Cubs this season?  That would be their young infielders Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo.  Castro and Rizzo, both just 23, provide a foundation for the future of the Cubs.  However, there is not much after.  Alfonso Soriano is still swinging for the fences, but the rest of the lineup would struggle to make a fantasy roster in an NL-only league.  The Cubs’ rotation has a couple of strikeout artists in Jeff Samardzija and Edwin Jackson, but take it from my experience as a Rangers’ fan that having Scott Feldman as your number 3 is not a good thing.  Look for Kyuji Fujikawa to take over the closing job from Carlos Marmol by the All-Star break. 

N.L. East

Washington Nationals, 92-70

Atlanta Braves, 86-76

Philadelphia Phillies, 80-82

New York Mets, 65-97

Miami Marlins, 63-99

The Nationals take the cake as the most complete team in baseball right now.  The lineup will be anchored by 20-year old, I-hit-better-than-Mike-Trout-did-at-age-19 Bryce Harper being protected by Jayson Werth (not worth the big contract but still a good player) and Ryan Zimmerman (if he can stay healthy).  Adam LaRoche, Ian Desmond and Kurt Suzuki provide some power at the bottom of the lineup and Denard Span speed at the top.  As good as the Nationals’ lineup looks, the pitching staff blows it away.  Stephen Strasburg is back with no innings limit, Gio Gonzalez is coming off of his best season yet, Jordan Zimmerman and Dan Haren could arguably be the best numbers 3 and 4 in the Bigs, and Ross Detwiler might just be scratching the surface of his ceiling.  With that said, the bullpen trio of Tyler Clippard/Drew Storen/Rafael Soriano is unmatched in all of baseball.  It will take a serious string of injuries for this team to not make the playoffs.

What is the National League record for team home runs?  If Brian McCann can come back soon, the Braves could have hitters 2-8 all hit 20 bombs or more, with Heyward, Justin Upton, Freddie Freeman and B.J. Upton all threats to surpass 30 (Heyward/Freeman maybe even 40).  This team is going to hit the long ball and Andrelton Simmons figures to be the Elvis Andrus-starter kit that will get it all going with assertive base-running.  The defense of the team might not be up to par, but the advantage this lineup has at the plate is worth it.  The Braves’ starting pitching is a series of questions: Can Tim Hudson keep it going?  Will Kris Medlen continue his dominance from the end of last season?  Will Julio Tehrean and Mike Minor live up to the potential and high strikeout rates?  Luckily Atlanta has a good trio themselves backing up the starters with Ryan Madsen, Jonny Venters and the best closer in baseball, Craig Kimbrel.  If Atlanta was in any division without Washington, they would be cracking 90 wins.

 The Phillies were old and with the acquisition of Michael Young, they just got older.  Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley are shells of their former selves and I’m not even sure that Ryan Howard is the same person.  He will still hit home runs but his average will dip toward the .225 range.  Philly added Ben Revere for some speed but outside of Howard, no one in their lineup has high RBI/power rates.  If the Phillies hope to contend, they will need their aging rotation pieces to discover the fountain of youth.  Hamels will continue being an ace, but the squad will need better years from Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee because the rest of the rotation looks quite below average.  The addition of Mike Adams should help the bullpen and hopefully Jonathan Papelbon will get ample opportunity. 

The Mets will be starting a good deal of guys that you have never heard of.  Outside of David Wright and Ike Davis in the middle, New York fans get to look forward to Jordany Valdespin, John Buck and Ruben Tejada!  Marlon Byrd seems to have hit the age cliff, and I am not a Lucas Duda believer.  New York does have a couple of starters that I like in Matt Harvey and Jon Niese.  Shaun Marcum has been diminishing in the past two years and Dillon Gee just does nothing for me.  With Frank Francisco injured, the lack of depth in the bullpen could be exposed early on.

As young and no-name as the Mets’ lineup projects, the Miami lineup could very well be even less conspicuous.  They also might struggle to match the Triple-A lineup with some deep farms.  Giancarlo Stanton will have the likes of Juan Pierre (.333 OBP) and Placido Polanco (.317 OBP) in front of him to drive in.  The rest of the lineup will be kids that the Marlins recently acquired in trades for their superstars.  Their pitching is so terrible that I do not even want to talk about it.  With the Astros gone, the Marlins will be the punching bag of the National League.

The World Baseball Classic

                A question was brought to me as to how the U.S. has not fared better in the World Baseball Classic.  I mean, it is “America’s Game” and there are more players from the U.S.A. than any other country in Major League Baseball.  When simply looking at the statistics from last season, 22 of the top 31 batters in WAR were Americans and 34 of the top 40 pitchers hail from the U.S .  (Whether Wins Above Replacement is the most accurate stat for a player’s ability is a much longer, separate entry, but for comparison purposes over position, especially hitter/pitcher, it is the easiest.)  So if there are only 15 other players spread out over about six countries that are playing as well as the full 40-man roster that the U.S. can field, how has the WBC not been a walkover?

            The answer lies in the participation of the American superstars.  In the 2009 WBC, the U.S. had three position players that had a WAR of 5 or more, Derek Jeter, Evan Longoria (an injury replacement) and Dustin Pedroia.  There were thirteen other Americans that had a higher WAR than 5 that were not included on the roster.  The table below shows what the lineup could have looked like, compared to the actual lineup:

PROJECTED				ACTUAL
Position	Player	WAR		Position	Player	WAR
SS	Derek Jeter	7.1		2B	Brian Roberts	3.7
DH	Ben Zobrist	8.7		SS	Derek Jeter	7.1
3B	Evan Longoria	7.6		DH	Jimmy Rollins	3
1B	Prince Fielder	6.4		3B	David Wright	3.5
2B	Chase Utley	8.2		RF	Adam Dunn	1.1
C	Joe Mauer	7.9		LF	Ryan Braun	4.9
LF	Ryan Zimmerman	7.3		C	Brian McCann	4.2
RF	Carl Crawford	5.9		1B	Mark DeRosa	1.9
CF	Chone Figgins	6.9		CF	Curtis Granderson	2.9
BENCH				BENCH
SS	Troy Tulowitzki	5.7		3B	Evan Longoria	7.6
OF	Matt Holliday	5.6		2B	Dustin Pedroia	5
OF	Matt Kemp	5.2		OF	Shane Victorino	3.7
1B	Mark Teixeira	5.2

The combined WAR of the projected starting lineup would have been 66 while the actual only had 32.3.  The lack of top American pitchers was even worse.  The highest starting pitcher on the 2009 WBC team: James Shields, 3.7 WAR.  Only Roy Oswalt even had a WAR of 3.  There were THIRTY-FIVE American pitchers with a higher WAR than Shields, including 11 with a WAR of 5.5 or more.  There was Zach Greinke, Justin Verlander, Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, and Cliff Lee all in their prime, all with WAR’s above 6.5, yet none were included on the roster.  Who is to blame for this?

            The blame for the lack of U.S. participation needs to be put on both the players for refusing to play as well as the committee that selects which players will be on the roster.  There is no written documentation of which players turned down the opportunity and which were simply not asked.  Either way, the prospect of playing in the WBC just does not mean that much to the players.  The real question, is should it mean anything to them?  With no baseball in the Olympics, and no World Cub like in soccer, the WBC is the only form of baseball competition between countries.  There should be a pride factor instilled with the players, but most are more worried about the injury factor and the upcoming season.  The non-Americans have this pride, as almost every single top foreign superstar played for his team in 2009.  Should there be cash considerations to people playing?  Should they move the tournament to a different point of the year to not conflict with Spring Training?  These are questions only the players can answer, as they are the ones refusing to play.  Personally, I think that if the U.S. can win this year, it will put the pressure on the best players to come back and win it again.  It is like there is a fear that the best players do not want to lose to these none MLB players.  So how did they lose then?

            Just looking at the lineups, the Americans easily could out-hit the top three finishers, Japan, South Korea and Venezuela respectively.  South Korea had just one Major Leaguer (Shin-Soo Choo) in their lineup.  Japan had a couple of more in Ichiro, Kosuke Fukudome and recent rookie Norichika Aoki, but still nothing close to the U.S. lineup.  Venezuela was deep, 1-9, but only Miguel Cabrera had star power.  I mean, would you take the Americans over the likes of Max Ramirez, Marco Scutaro, Carlos Guillen, Cesar Izturis, Bobby Abreu, Endy Chavez and Magglio Ordonez?  It may be close, but 1-9 the Americans swung the bat better.  So why did the U.S. finish 4^th?  Top-tier pitching.

            In 2009, the top three teams all put stellar starting pitching on the hill.  Venezuela had Felix Hernandez, Victor Zambrano and Armando Galarraga as their starters.  King Felix shut down the Americans helping win third place.  South Korea did not have many big names, but did have a variety of different arms that did not walk guys and pounded the strike zone.  Current Major Leaguer Hyun Jin Ryu had a dominant tournament, with a 2-0 record and 2.57 ERA.  Japan won the tournament based on its pitching depth.  Dice-K was at the end of his prime and the leader of the staff.  They had a young Yu Darvish who had just gone 16-4 with a 1.88 ERA in 200.2 innings and 208 strikeouts at the age of 23.  That also had Kyuji Fujikawa who had just gone 8-1 with a 0.67 ERA and 38 saves in the Japanese league as well as Major Leaguer Akinori Iwamura in the bullpen.  As Japan has shown with back-to-back WBC Titles, top-tier pitching will win this tournament.

            That brings us to this year’s tournament.  The U.S. Team’s management has done a much better job of constructing this team.  With a lineup of Ryan Braun, Giancarlo Stanton, David Wright, Joe Mauer, Ben Zobrist, Adam Jones, Brandon Phillips, Eric Hosmer and Jimmy Rollins, there are really only two changes that could be made (Mike Trout for Jones and Prince Fielder for Hosmer).  That lineup gives you a solid 45.4 combined WAR (57 with the two changes).  The top two other lineups, Venezuela and the Dominican Republic are in the same ballpark, but really not close.  The Dominicans are going with Carlos Santana, Robinson Cano, Edwin Encarnacion, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Miguel Tejada, Erick Aybar, Nelson Cruz and Alejandro De Aza.  A few of those guys experienced some regression last season, but if they are able to come back from that then they could definitely mash with the U.S.  Venezuela is led by Triple Crown Champion Miguel Cabrera, along with a deep lineup with every player’s WAR above 2.5: Elvis Andurs, Miguel Montero, Pablo Sandoval, Asdrubal Cabrera, Marco Scutaro, Carlos Gonzalez and Martin Prado. 

            The pitching is what I think gives the Americans the definite edge.  They still were not able to tab the top two (Verlander and Kershaw) but they will throw two of the top 6 starters from last year in Gio Gonzalez and R.A. Dickey.  Derek Holland did not have a great season, but coming from personal experience at his World Series (near) shutout, the kid pitches better in big games.  Their bullpen is stacked with the latest Closer-du jour Craig Kimbrel and his 1.01 ERA, as well as veteran Heath Bell and setup men Glen Perkins and Steve Cishek.  This staff is far and away better than the 2009 version, as well as their 2013 counterparts.  The big reason why?  Japan has zero current Major Leaguers on their roster.  South Korea will not be able to duplicate their surprise run in 2009 as they have already been eliminated, so that leaves the DR and Venezuela.  Venezuela will not have the services of Felix Hernandez, so they will rely on the ever-sporadic Carlos Zambrano and Anibal Sanchez.  Sanchez had a solid year (3.8 WAR) but their bullpen will not be enough. 

            So the Dominicans are what stand in the U.S.’ way of the title, and their pitching staff has potential, but nothing for sure.  Between Wandy Rodriguez and Edinson Volquez, the Dominicans have two starters who have put up WAR seasons in the 5’s and 6’s, but also been injured frequently.  Do I believe that they can shut down the diverse and deep lineup of the U.S.?  No, but that is not how the Dominicans can win.  With Octavio Dotel, the resurgent Pedro Strop and the Shut-down Fernando Rodney with his 48 saves and 0.60 ERA, the Dominicans’ bullpen could put up a lot of 7-8-9 zeroes. 

            With Cuba and Japan out of Pool 1, Chinese Taipei and Netherlands out of Pool 2, I see Venezuela and the Dominican Republic out of Pool 3 and the U.S.A. and Canada out of Pool 4.  I then think that the U.S., Japan, and DR will cruise to the finals with Canada surprising Venezuela (18-year old sensation Jameson Taillon and Brett Lawrie, Joey Votto and Justin Morneau in the infield? Canada could take third).  There I see the Americans taking care of the Dominicans in the final, with an MVP to R.A. Dickey and his knuckleball.  The U.S. lineup is too strong, and their pitching staff is too deep.  The Dominican Republic would need a career game out of either Volquez or Rodriguez, and even then I think Dickey can befuddle the Dominican hitters.