Tuesday, May 22, 2012

MLB Quarter-Season Outlook


So now that the quarter-mark of the MLB season has passed, I thought it’d be a good time to check back with my pre-season predictions and make adjustments for forecasting the rest of the season.



N.L. East                              

Pre-Season Prediction                                               Currents Standings

Phillies                                                                        Braves 26-17

Nationals -5                                                                Nationals 25-17

Marlins -6                                                                   Marlins 23-19

Braves -8                                                                    Mets 22-20

Mets    -21                                                                   Phillies 21-22



The lack of Ryan Howard in the lineup might b e having a larger effect than I originally though, but being only 5 games back without your best offensive player is nothing to worry about too much.  What should worry the Phillies are the runs that the Braves have been producing.  The Braves are second in the NL in runs scored after struggling in that department last year.  If their pitching can keep at the decent level it is at then Atlanta definitely has a shot. 

However, I’m not giving up on the Phillies just yet.  Their worst starter is Joe Blanton: Joe Blanton with his ERA of 3.74 with 5 quality starts.  If Philadelphia starts scoring runs at all, then 5 games is nothing, especially with the high number of games remaining against the Braves.  I also still think the Nationals will pass the Braves.  Their team ERA is leading the majors and Bryce Harper is having just the impactful splash that I thought he would.  So maybe the race is a little closer, but I’ll keep my pre-season thoughts intact, with maybe the Braves staying ahead of the Marlins.



N.L. Central

Pre-Season Prediction                                               Current Standings

Reds                                                                            Cardinals 23-19

Pirates -7                                                                    Reds 22-19

Brewers -8                                                                  Pirates 20-22

Cardinals -10                                                             Astros 19-23

Cubs -17                                                                     Brewers 17-25

Astros -41                                                                   Cubs 15-27



Maybe my most under-ratement of a team (99% due to spite, 1% due to the loss of El Hombre) the Cardinals have been the second most dominant team in baseball with a run differential of +58.  The loss of Pujols has given more at-bats to their younger talent of Allen Craig (.373/.424/.765) and Jon Jay (.343/.393/.438) and Carlos Beltran has broken out for 13 bombs and 33 RBI.  What is even scarier is that Chris Carpenter hasn’t pitched an inning and Adam Wainwright has an ERA of 5.77.  Lance Lynn, Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse have picked up the slack with a 15-5 record, 16 quality starts and all with a sub-3.00 ERA.

With all of that said, I think the Reds will eke it out over St. Louis.  With just a half game separating them, I trust the Reds’ lineup more than the Cardinals’ and Johnny Cueto is the real deal (and I made a STUPID fantasy trade, thinking I was trading high on a guy about to plummet!!!!).  I also feel like the Pirates have enough to challenge for the second spot in the division, but I’ll give the Cardinals their due and concede them into the spot. 

I definitely under-rated the Astros too: they aren’t the worst team ever, just really bad.  The Cubs on the other hand, might be the worst team ever and will easily challenge for 100 losses.  The Brewers have nothing going outside of Ryan Bruan, especially Yovanni Gallardo (Damn fantasy pick).



N.L. West

Pre-Season Prediction                                               Current Standings

Diamondbacks                                                           Dodgers 29-13

Giants -3                                                                     Giants 22-20

Dodgers -7                                                                  Diamondbacks 19-24

Rockies -10                                                                 Padres 16-27

Padres -12                                                                  Rockies 15-26



The Dodgers have surprised everyone, however the slipper might be about to fall off due to Matt Kempt’s injury.  However, I don’t think they will regress to far as the over-rating of Arizona leaves 3 teams in the division with easier wins then say the East divisions.  Andre Ethier is having a solid enough campaign to be the fill-in Kemp for the time being, and Chris Capuno has come out of nowhere to be a solid starter. 

Melky Cabrera is carrying the Giants’ offense with a .360/.407/.512 and if Pablo Sandoval can come off of the DL quickly then they have a shot to challenge the Dodgers.  They will need Tim Lincecum to sharke off that 6.04 ERA and join the other 4 starters at 3.00 and under.  The Diamondbacks will need Justin Upton to continue hitting and stay healthy along with the soon to be off of the disabled list Daniel Hudson (who I traded Cueto for) to have a monster second half.  I’m going to have to go with a switch at the top, with San Francisco just edging out Arizona, and the Dodgers falling into 3rd place.



A.L. East

Pre-Season Prediction                                               Current Standings

Yankees                                                                      Orioles 27-16

Rays -1                                                                       Rays 25-18

Blue Jays -4                                                                Blue Jays 24-19

Red Sox -5                                                                  Yankees 21-21

Orioles -29                                                                  Red Sox 21-21           



Notice I did not call the Dodgers the surprise team, as that title belongs to the Orioles.  I will admit I complete underestimated the team, but I am still not buying into them… this year.  They have a good nucleus and Adam Jones is an absolute stud- .307/.351/.602 with 14 homers and 29 RBI.  Chris Davis still strikes out a lot, but is somehow balancing a .300 batting average with it.  They have a powerful lineup, however their pitching staff leaves something to be desired.  The bullpen is solid, but they have 3 starters hover around ERA’s of 5.00. 

As a disclaimer, I wrote the pre-season predictions before the Pineda and Rivera injuries crippled both parts of the Yankees’ pitching staff.  With those two injuries in mind, I think the Rays will win the division.  They have had a tough early schedule and have battled injuries, but I trust Joe Madden to pull it off.  If Longoria comes back hitting the same way he was before the hamstring injury (.329/.433/.561) and Matt Moore can pull out the magic he showed in the post-season then Tampa Bay could run away with the division.

The Yankees should be able to hammer their way back into wild-card position, leaving the Blue Jays and Orioles to battle for third place.  I think it will come down to a mid-season trade for a starter for both of them, and whomever can get the better pitcher will be able to outlast the other.  So I’ll stick with the Blue Jays in third, but am hopeful that the Orioles can stay above the Expensive Red Sox.



A.L. Central

Pre-Season Prediction                                               Current Standings

Tigers                                                                         Indians 23-18

Royals -12                                                                  White Sox 21-21

Indians -18                                                                 Tigers 20-21

Twins -20                                                                   Royals 17-24

White Sox -21                                                            Twins 14-27



In easily the worst division in baseball, the Tigers have not come out of the gate strong.  Four of the five teams have negative run differentials, and it would be all 5 if not for a recent winning streak by Chicago.  Asdrubal Cabrera has not regressed with his .309/.404/.504 but the rest of the lineup is leaving something to be desired, with no other regular batting above .270 for the Indians.  Derek Lowe is carrying the team with his 6-2 record and 2.15 ERA while only striking out 2.30 per nine innings.  I’m not sold on the Indians being able to hold off the sure-to-come Tigers’ surge.

The Royals have had an up-and-down first quarter, as if you take out their 12 game losing streak they would be a strong 17-12.  Their young bats are starting to come around, and if Eric Hosmer finds his pop then they can make a run at the division.  What’s more inspiring, is Felipe Paulino’s 13.2 inning scoreless streak and Bruce Chen shutting down the Rangers.  If this pitching staff can get to a serviceable level for the rest of the season, then Kansas City has a shot. 

I think the Tigers still pull it out, but by a much closer margin over Kansas City.  The Indians should stay ahead of the White Sox but I’ll sway with Chicago staying ahead of Minnesota.



A.L. West

Pre-Season Predication                                             Current Standings

Rangers                                                                      Rangers 26-17

Angels -1                                                                    Athletics 22-21

Mariners -25                                                              Mariners 20-24

Athletics -32                                                               Angels 18-25



A recent run of bad baseball has derailed the high number of wins that Texas was on pace for, but they are still easily the class of the division, and probably of the American League.  Their run differential of +79 is twice as much as anyone else in the league, and they are sitting at a 94.6 playoff percentage with 119 games to play.  Josh Hamilton has slowed down, but is still leading the Triple Crown categories, and the starting pitching has regressed from their unbelievably hot start.  The Neftali Feliz injury is worrisome, but not as much to Texas as they have a 17-game winner to slide into their 5th rotation spot.  I just can’t see any of the three contenders in their division being able to keep up with the 8 game cushion on the only serious challenger.

The Athletics have been surprising with their AAA lineup and injured starting pitching.  The Brandon McCarthy injury is going to slow them down some, as they are hoping that Dallas Braden can throw soon.  Josh Reddick is having a breakout year leading the team in every offensive category.  The Mariners have shown some promise, and with King Felix coming back to his form last night against Texas, they are still a tough out when he is pitching. 

The Angels have to easily be the disappointment of the young season along with their $300 million dollar pop-out machine, Albert Pujols.  Mark Trumbo and Mike Trout are the bright spots on the team, with .336/.403/.586 and .350/.413/.600 respectively.  Jered Weaver has been phenomenal but the rest of the rotation is leaving something to be desired.  The bullpen has been atrocious.  If the Angels can turn their pitching staff back to where it should be, and Pujols can start raking then they still have a shot at the wild card as the East teams beat each other up.

I’ll have to leave the order the same, with a closer gap between all of the teams and the A’s possibly switching with the Mariners.



Playoff Teams:

National League:

Champions: Phillies, Reds, Giants

Wild Cards: Nationals and Cardinals

American League:

Champions: Rays, Tigers, Rangers

Wild Cards: Yankees, Angels

Division Series Winners:  Reds and Nationals; Rangers and Rays

World Series: Rangers over Reds in 6



I’ll leave the majority the same, but switching in the Cardinals and Giants for the Marlins and Diamondbacks.



AWARDS:

N.L. MVP: Pre-Season: Matt Kemp; Runner-up: Andrew McCutchen

This is risky as I am not sure he can keep it up after the injury, but I’m going to have to take McCutchen going forward.  McCutchen has 7 home runs, 21 RBI and 7 steals while batting .340 and is just hitting his stride.  Ryan Braun is just behind him with 12/30/8 batting .333 and David Wright is also in the mix with 4/25/4 hitting .415.  So I’ll just flip the order of the top two predicted.

A.L. MVP: Pre-Season: Robinson Cano; Runner-up: Ian Kinsler

Cano has been solid, 4/16/1 and .303, but not spectacular.  Kinsler has been the better second baseman, but his teammate is leading my thoughts for the rest of the season.  Josh Hamilton is having one of the better starts to a season in MLB History as he is still on pace to hit around 72 home runs and 190 RBI (both near records) while hitting just under .400.  He won’t be able to keep the pace up, even if he stays healthy, but he has given himself quite a cushion.  The before-mentioned Adam Jones has the best shot to catch him, as he is the only other American Leaguer bringing all 5 tools to the table at a high rate right now.  I’m going to lean towards Hamilton, with Kinsler making a late season surge to remain runner-up.

N.L. Cy Young: Pre-Season: Clayton Kershaw; Runner-up: A.J. Burnett

The Burnett prediction was a little optimistic, but Kershaw has been on the money with a 1.90 ERA and 51 strikeouts.  Brandon Beachy has distinguished himself as the clear second place right now with a 1.33 ERA and 39 K’s to go with 5 wins.  The other contender is the contract year Cole Hamels is having at 6 wins, 2.48 ERA and 58 strikeouts.  I’ll leave Kershaw in first and Beachy in second.

A.L. Cy Young: Pre-Season: Justin Verlander; Runner-up: Colby Lewis

Verlander came within 2 outs of his third no-hitter in his last outing, and is at a 2.14 ERA with a 0.80 WHIP and 68 K’s in 67.1 innings.  He is the clear favorite.  Jered Weaver has his no-hitter to go with 6 wins and a 2.80 ERA, and is probably in runner-up position just ahead of Jake Peavy.  If you take away Yu Darvish’s two starts against Seattle, then he is right with Verlander at 5-1 with 1.94 ERA and a strikeout an inning.  The Colby Lewis prediction would look decent… if you take out two starts as well; nevertheless he is still at 3.30 ERA and 53 strikeouts.  Not terrible, but he is just behind the top tier.  I’ll keep Verlander at 1 and Weaver at runner up, but Yu Darvish lurking the break into the top 2.

N.L. Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper

Since coming up a few weeks ago, Harper has gone .256/.340/.451 with 2 homers and the ballsiest steal of home I’ve ever seen.  He has kept his attitude in check for the most part, and is showing off his defensive ability and base-running more than anything.  Wade Miley of the Diamondbacks is probably ahead of him right now (2.14 ERA) but I’m leaning toward Harper keeping up his pace.

A.L. Rookie of the Year: Yu Darvish

As mentioned earlier, Yu would probably be in the lead for Cy Young if he could not freeze up when pitching against his childhood hero Ichiro.  The guy has just been dominant, including 14 K’s in a game against the Indians and shown his anti-C.J. Wilson by coming back out after a 2-hour rain delay to beat the Angels.  Mike Trout is having a good start, but he will need a huge drop-off from Darvish to even get into the conversation.

Monday, May 14, 2012

NBA Conference Semifinal Preview


So I know this seems like cheating since the Eastern Conference Series’ have already began play, but I didn’t want to do a half and half preview so I just waited.  It’s not like anything notable like an actual good player getting hurt happened in those game 1’s.



Eastern Conference

#2 Miami Heat  vs.  #3 Indiana Pacers  (Miami up 1-0)

The only matchup I correctly predicted and now possibly the most intriguing series of the round.  I thought that the Pacers had a better chance than any team in the East of dethroning the heavy favorites from Miami before the playoffs started, and now with Bosh’s injury (and possibly missing the rest of the series) Indiana’s chances are even higher.  Everyone knows that it is more like the Big 2.5 in Miami to begin with and I would rate Bosh somewhere between Nick Collison and Elton Brand as far as power forwards that might be able to win a series still left in the playoffs, but the Pacers are one of the few teams left where he is needed. 

Between Roy Hibbert, David West, Tyler Hansbrough and even Louis Amundson, the Pacers have the deepest front court of any team left.  Miami’s weakness has always been a lack of an inside presence and while Bosh is not a real “presence” he at least was a long-bodied defender who rebounded decently.  So what are the Heatles to do? Play LeBron at the 4?  Does Udonis Haslem have enough left to really be a factor?  I wouldn’t be surprised if LeBron does average about 13 rebounds a game in the series, but Miami needs him to lock down Granger like he did in Game 1 (1-10 shooting).  This leaves the door open just enough for the Pacers to make a series out of it.

Now I know that without Bosh, the Heat outscored the Pacers by 15 in the second half without Bosh and he was a -7 for the game, but I think that is more attributed to the younger Pacers not being able to make the proper adjustments on the fly.  I think Frank Vogel will have his guys more prepared to attack the Miami weak spot and who on the planet really thinks Erik Spoelstra can out coach anyone?  So I think that Indiana will be able to steal a game in Miami to balance out the game in Indiana in which LeBron feeds off of the opposing crowd and realizes how dominant he can be for a 35-9-15 game and that leads to a game 7.  The most glaring weakness to the Pacers is their lack of a superstar closer and the Heat have 2, so I’m going to have to take Wade having one of his “I’m getting to the line every time I have the ball” games where he shoots about 20 free throws and the Heat win in 7. 



#4 Boston Celtics  vs.  #8 Philadelphia 76ers  (Boston up 1-0)

            This series was over about 30 seconds after Philly disposed of the crippled Bulls: whenever Evan Turner and Jrue Holiday began dancing on the table as if it was game 7 of the finals, Boston won this series.  It was obvious then that the younger 76ers had reached their ultimate goal going into the playoffs of beating the Bulls (which they probably did not have much confidence in doing in the first place).   Boston on the other hand, knows that the clock is ticking and this is their last run. 

            I’m sure Bill Simmons is walking around with a fully pitched tent with the luck the Celtics have had in their favor.  They draw the Hawks who’s second best player was just coming off of an injury causing Josh Smith to do Josh Smith things (was that not the worst last minute of a basketball game ever in their game 6 loss?).  Then the likely second round opponent, Chicago, owners of the league’s best record for the past two seasons, loses their MVP in game 1 of the first round landing the 8th seeded up start 76ers in Boston’s path.  Now, the other main contender in the Celtics’ way to the Finals loses its third best player for an indefinite amount of time with an injury that is sure to linger.  It’s like a twisted movie where the pompous Boston fans act like they are the underdog that fought their way to a deserved title.

            I like the Philadelphia’s core of Holiday-Turner-Hawes-Iguodala-Williams and think they will be contenders in the near future should they keep them together.  However, their expectations are too low to win this series.  Not to mention Rajon Rondo is in “Eff you” mode and could average a triple-double for the series.  I think Boston takes it in 5, and very likely sweeps them should Paul Pierce get hot in Philly.



Western Conference

#1 San Antonio Spurs  vs.  #5 Los Angeles Clippers

            Two things jumped out at me about these teams from the first round: I’ve been criminally under-rating the Spurs and I agree with Zach Randolph (partially) on something.  I’ll start with Randolph, who called the Clippers the “biggest floppers in the league.”  I’ve always thought Paul gets away with murder just because he is smaller than everyone else and of his reputation, but Blake Griffin truly has turned into a whiner (and I know Randolph punched him in the face yesterday, but every game leading up to game 7 Griffin was crying after every touch).  I would not put Lob City in the category of the Heat or even the one-man-flop show that is Manu Ginobili, but they are gaining rapidly. 

The Spurs on the other hand, are peaking at just the right time.  I thought the Jazz were a bad matchup for San Antonio, and they were, but the Spurs ran them out of the gym.  Boris Diaw is playing near the level he did in the ’06 playoffs for the Suns when he was the best player on the court in most games.  His play, in addition to the Stephen Jackson and Kawhi Leonard additions give the Spurs the deepest rotation in the league allowing for Duncan and Ginobili to get extended rest during games.  Tony Parker is having possibly his best season yet and Gregg Popovich is the best coach left in the playoffs.  Most of all, the Spurs have flown under the radar all season on into the playoffs.  They just keep grinding and winning.

I think Tony Parker might eviscerate Chris Paul in this series.  Paul will then attribute it to an injury (somehow he’s always hurt when he loses, but the injury disappears when he is winning) but without CP3 wining his own position, then the Clippers cannot hang with the Spurs.  Duncan will abuse Blake Griffin/Kenyon Martin and the Los Angeles does not have an answer for Ginobili.  I think the Spurs end this one quick in 5, and get even more rest as they wait for the winner of the other Western Semifinal.



#2 Oklahoma City Thunder  vs.  #3 Los Angeles Lakers

            The marquee matchup with the most stars and glamour of the conference semifinal round, I think this series will live up to the hype.  Two years ago in the Thunder’s first playoff foray, OKC gave a good fight against the eventual champion Lakers with Durant matching Kobe bucket-for-bucket but the deeper Lakers’ supporting cast prevailing.  Now, I think the teams might be more even as far as depth, but the physical and more importantly mental matchup lies in favor of the Lakers.

            The Lakers starting front court is unmatched in the NBA and the Thunder will be outmanned down low.  I’m guessing it will be Perkins on Bynum and Ibaka on Gasol but I’m sure there will be much switching as far as the individual matchups go.  Either way, the Lakers have the advantage in both of those matchups (sorry Sports Guy, Kendrick Perkins is not good enough to hang with either, so even if he would not have gotten hurt the Lakers would have prevailed in the ’10 Finals).  Mentally, I think L.A. is in the heads of the Thunder players, all because of the Artest elbow.  The way that the altercation and the rest of that game went down (Kobe out-gunning Durant in OT) the Lakers treated Oklahoma City like a little brother and they just took it.  If the game 7 performance from Ron-Ron continues, then the Thunder are in trouble.

            The Thunder made me, and many other Mavericks’ fans look foolish as they dismissed Dallas in the first round.  Many will say it was because of the lack of Tyson Chandler in the middle (or the lucky bounce/stupid foul in games 1 and 2 but I’m not bitter) but I believe it was the emergence of the Russell Westbrook jumper.  I wrote about his jump shooting success in my last basketball post, but when Westbrook is hitting near half of his top of the key jump shots, then Oklahoma City can beat anyone.  The problem is, can he sustain that success?  If he can’t, then it will take a Jordan-esque (I’m not ruling that out) performance from Durant to win this series.

            I think this will be a tennis-point of a series as each team’s secondary stars step up.  There will be a huge 15-15 Andrew Bynum game followed by a disappearance as Westbrook gets hot for 30.  Then there will be a 25-14 Gasol game followed by James Harden untangling his beard around the rim all night.  This series just seems destined to go to 7 games and Vegas is giving the Thunder a huge home-court advantage with a 7.5 line for Game 1.  I’m not as sold though, and Durant already got his lucky break in the first round.  Kobe takes over in game 7 and moves the Lakers on.

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Josh Hamilton's Contract Situation


             The time is now (as has become accustomed with the Rangers) to discuss the Josh Hamilton contract situation.  He successfully managed to do everything possible to push the contact talks out of the off season, only to do everything possible with his play to bring it to the forefront of Ranger Fans’ minds.  So let’s delve into one of the most complex and complicated contract circumstances I’ve ever seen.

            When he is healthy*** Josh Hamilton is arguably the best player in baseball.  I’m not even going to use parenthesis or a footnote because everyone knows that Hamilton’s health has held him back since being traded to the Rangers.  Could it be attributed back to his history of drug abuse? We will get to that in a minute.  However when you look at his numbers compared to games played it’s pretty ridiculous.  Over his time as a Ranger (except 2009 where he was hurt the entire season off and on) if you average out his numbers over 140 games a season, he’s averaging 34 home runs, 120 runs batted in and a .315/.381/.582 triple slash.  This all goes with Gold-Glove level defense in the outfield and superb base running.  So if he even plays close to a full season, you have an MVP candidate every year.  The only person on the planet that really compares to his numbers are Matt Kemp, who will have to continue his torrid pace of last year and this year to even catch up to Hamilton (which he would also have to have Josh regress).  So stats-wise, Josh Hamilton is a blank-contract, do-whatever-it-takes-to-sign-him player.

            Then you have to factor in his history: injury and off-the-field.  Almost everyone knows the heroine to homerun-hitting story of Hamilton.  It’s hard to prove or disprove whether his history of heavy drug use has affected his body’s durability, but I have to lean more toward that it has had a hand in it.  As mentioned before, Hamilton missed over half of the 2009 season because of injuries, and when he was playing he was playing hurt.  Whether it is bruised ribs from jumping into the wall or a freak broken arm from diving home, Hamilton manages to stay hurt.  Can you ask him to change his game? No, it’s what makes him a valuable player: the fact that he has no concern other than being the best player on the field.  With baseball though, injuries are so prevalent that if you truly factor them in to every contract it’d be hard to sign anyone.  Just ask Boston about Carl Crawford.

What worries people more about Hamilton are his alcohol relapses.  Once in 2009 and then shortly before this season, the recovering alcoholic has fallen off the wagon.  The first time there were pictures of women sucking whipped cream off of his chest and the second time there was allegedly a video of him and a woman in the bathroom of a bar.  To me though, what a guy does off the field (if legal) should not be factored in to whether you want to contract his abilities to your team on the field.  Besides that, the off-the-field issues do not harm his play like some have though because of his bad 2009.  His relapse this year caused more publicity, but he has had the best start to a season of his career (or possibly anyone’s in history).  What did irk me the wrong way were the comments Hamilton had in spring training toward his latest relapse about him “not owing the Rangers anything.”  For the first time, Hamilton seemed a little diva-like and not humble and grateful.  The Rangers have paid him over $26 million over the past five years, albeit a bargain when taking in his numbers, they took the chances on the guy when not many would.  Nevertheless, the amount of production that Hamilton provides completely outweighs these off-the-field issues and I think he deserves whatever market value would suggest.

As mentioned earlier, the only comparable player statistically is Matt Kemp.  Kemp signed an extension of 7 years/$148 million before the season.  Kemp though, is also 3 years younger than Hamilton and played no less than 155 games in the past 4 seasons.  I’d say that on the whole Hamilton brings more to the table on the field, but the age and injury concerns put him slightly below the value of Kemp.  However, the free agent contracts signed last winter might drive the market value up even higher.  Albert Pujols’ 10 year/$260 million+ and Prince Fielder’s 9 year/$214 million contracts have given Hamilton’s agent quite a bargaining chip.  Pujols may have better overall numbers, but has shown a decline and is 2 years (allegedly more) older than Hamilton.  Fielder is a few years younger, but also does not bring the all-around hitting game as well as defensive/base-running skills.  So while the market should point to a contract in the league of Kemp’s, if Hamilton gets to free-agency the Yankees or Red Sox will probably throw a contract in the Fielder/ Pujols range.

The Rangers may have made a mistake by not getting the extension done before the season.  Hamilton is on pace to hit 76 home runs, 195 RBI with a .406/.458/.840 for the Triple Crown.  While his numbers are sure to regress, Hamilton’s attitude toward the organization already shows that they might not get the home-town discount (Cliff Lee can suck it) if he gets to free agency.  So if the Rangers are looking to get the extension done, now is the time.  If they wait until Hamilton comes back to Earth, he will still want the numbers being thrown around now and Jon Daniels will not want to cave then.  If Texas lets him finish the season and enter free agency, the price might be driven even higher and while the Rangers have more money now, they still don’t have as much as LA/NY/Boston. 

So for the sake of the Ranger fans (and the fact that outfield is the only weak spot in the farm system) get the deal done.  Even if it is for 8 years, $196 million or more, the Rangers have the room to do it.  Besides Hamilton, the only other key free agents will be Napoli and Colby Lewis and the current payroll for 2013 is about $80 million.  The year after that is when the TV contract money kicks in and Texas will be able to re-up Cruz/Young (at a cheaper price)/Harrison.  With the amount of young players under control, and money at their disposal, the Rangers have the ability to sign Hamilton to the max contract.  Let’s hope they do so.

Friday, May 4, 2012

The (Theoretical) Future of the Mavericks


            As all Mavs’ fans search for answers following the ass-kicking handed to Dallas that has now put the Mavericks on the brink of elimination for the first time in 2 years, the most common theme is to blame Cuban for not re-signing Tyson Chandler.  I think this is the Cowboy-fan-turned-Mavericks-fan knee-jerk reaction that we are used to hearing in football season: “If we would have kept Chandler we could have won back-to-back.”  That’s just a ridiculous thought on so many accounts, not to mention the jeopardy the Mavericks’ future would be in.

            Before I even get into the possibilities that Cuban had in front of him, let’s not kid ourselves: whether Tyson Chandler was there or not this series, I don’t think it mattered as to the outcome.  This series is coming down to Russell Westbrook.  Westbrook averaged 19 shots a game and shot 45% from the field, 31% from 3’s during the regular season.  During the first three games of this series, he is shooting 21 times a game at 49% and 44% from 3’s.  So he is shooting at a much higher clip from the floor and shooting more.  The most telling thing is that he’s hitting jump shots. Tyson Chandler can’t block an 18-foot jump shot.  If Westbrook continues hitting those then OKC is a very dangerous team.

            So now let’s look at what Cuban could have done last summer when deciding how to go about setting up the team for the present and future:

Option 1: Re-Sign Tyson Chandler

            Most of the times when a team wins a championship, they do everything they can to keep the integral pieces of that championship.  The Mavs let one of their key pieces walk in free agency (not to mention a few other roles players, but that’s another argument).  Like I said, this is the crutch argument for Dallas fans as to why they are struggling.  You have to look at the bigger picture here.

            Tyson Chandler wanted his money.  He wanted a long term deal.  The Mavs could not do both.  With the new salary cap restrictions not to mention the amount of space the Mavericks had on tap for the summer of 2012, Dallas couldn’t offer Chandler the long-term, big money deal he wanted.  The Knicks did.  Now Dallas tried to give Chandler a max-money, one year deal, but he wanted the years more than anything.  But say that the Mavericks’ gave him the 4 for $60 million.  Even with the amnesty of Haywood, you’re looking at $50 million just from Dirk, Marion, and Chandler when the cap is in the mid $50’s.  Now while those three are a great core, where is the offense coming from besides Dirk?  Marion and Chandler can both score 14 and 10 a game respectively, but they do it outside of the structured offense.  No plays (outside of rare alley-oops) get run for them. 

            The other option that could have come with resigning Chandler would be as a trade chip for the Magic so that Dallas could get Dwight Howard (their over arching goal).  Having Tyson certainly would have helped, but could the Mavs have even come up with a package centered on Tyson?  Chandler-Roddy B- Jet- Mahimi for Howard-Turkgolu? Would the Magic even say yes to this?  Is this what Tyson wanted to do?  I think if this was a serious option, Cuban would have done it.  The problem with it is if you do resign him, but Dwight still wants to come here, he can’t unless the Magic agree to it, giving Orlando all of the power.

Option 2: Let Tyson Walk

            Let’s look at the dream scenario that Cuban and Donnie Jones had in mind: Let Tyson, Barea, Stevenson walk, and save cap space to sign Deron and Dwight in the summer of 2012.  Then you build around a core of Dirk-Dwight-Deron-Marion-Roddy B-Brandon Wright-Delonte West-Vince Carter.  Now that is a top 8 that you can win a championship with. 

            Deron and Dwight have all but tattooed it on their foreheads that they want to play together.  The complication came when Howard agreed to the one year option with the Magic, pushing his free agency back a year.  While this may look bad on the outside for the Mavericks, the salary picture tells a better story.  On the books the Mavs have $41.4 for next year, $33 million after the Haywood amnesty.  So say they sign Deron and take the player options on Vince ($3 million), Wright and Azubuike (less than a million each).  You can give Deron about $17.5 and still leave yourself some roster-filler space.  If no long term contracts are signed, that leaves about $47 million on the books for the summer of 2013, when Howard becomes a free agent.  Should the salary cap hit $60 million, and then you restructure Dirk’s last years (the last year on the books is 13/14) you can slide Dwight in there for the same as Deron. 

            Yes, athletes don’t take less money very often.  However, when they want to play together (Bosh/LeBron/Wade) or if there is a place that they want to play (Melo/Amare) they will.  Not only do Deron and Dwight want to play together, and have Dirk on the wing to take away the double teams, but Deron wants to come back to Texas.  It is a very plausible situation that the Mavs end up with two of the top 10 players in the NBA, both still in their 20’s while Dirk can take a back seat and drill jumpers into his 40’s.  Of course, Dwight could change his mind, and the whole situation is screwed, unless the Mavs still sign Deron and…

Option 3: Sign Roy Hibbert

            Fun fact: Roy Hibbert averaged 3 more points a game last year, same amount of rebounds, and 33% more blocks per game than Tyson Chandler during the regular season, only his 4th in the league.  He’s also 4 years younger than Chandler, with a much more refined offensive game, as well as a higher ceiling.  Even more fun fact: he only made $2.5 million. 

            The main issue is Hibbert is a restricted free agent this summer and the Pacers can match any qualifying offer from another team.  However, the Pacers only have 5 guys locked up already, and almost $40 million on the books.  If they Mavs offer Hibbert $12 or $13 million, I don’t think the Pacers can match.  Now does that seem like you’re over-paying him? Yes, it does.  But if you aren’t going to get Dwight, then might as well get another top-5 center in the league for cheaper.

            This also may seem like a downgrade from Chandler.  Is it though?  Hibbert is developing at a fast rate and is younger than both Howard and Chandler.  I’d also have to put him as the fourth player in the “Top-4 Center in the League” category with Howard, Chandler and Andrew Bynum (and he won’t be fourth for too long). 

            So say you go this route, and your lineup is Dirk-Deron-Hibbert-Marion-Delonte-Roddy B-Wright-Azubuike.  Any development from Roddy or progress by Azubuike and this is a strong to very strong top 8.  More than anything, Dallas would have the three key positions in the NBA locked down, which I will explain now why Deron is more important than Dwight.

Option 4: Get Deron Williams AT ALL COSTS

            As I just pointed out, there are only about 4 (maybe 5 or 6 if you think Nene, Ibaka, Gasol or Noah are actually in their category; they’re not) elite centers in the NBA.  Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond might be able to add to it, but they both are more glorified 4’s that are taller than the average power forward.  How many elite point guards are there though?  Rose, Rondo, Deron, Westbrook, Paul, Parker, Curry, Ellis, Lowry (yes, he is, look at his numbers), Irving and Rubio, before you have the older veterans (Nash and Kidd) and the next level of Conley, Evans, Miller, Harris, Felton, Wall, Teague and Chalmers.  So that’s 11 elite point guards, and 8 more who are closer than the next group of centers.  That’s two thirds of the league that will have as good a guard as only 4 teams have a center.  A great point guard is a must-have in the NBA for the time being, as you see in that list Parker is the oldest one and he’s not even 30 yet.  If the Mavs want to compete, they will need an elite point guard more than an elite center.

            With that piece of information, you can see why signing Deron Williams is so much more important than Tyson Chandler.  If the Mavs kept Chandler, they would be hamstrung in signing anyone else for the time being, as Tyson may have won the Defensive Player of the Year award, but he is no superstar.  A superstar is the guy you go to, down 1, late in the fourth quarter of a playoff game.  Dirk has been that guy for 12 years, and he can only do it for so much longer.  Now imagine Deron being able to run a pick and roll/pop with Dirk.  Nowitzki will no longer have to use the bump-pivot-one legged-horizontal to the ground jump shot as his go-to move.  Deron could set him up.  What would Tyson give the aging German?  Maybe the possibility of an offensive rebound if he misses?  No, I’ll pass on that.  Give me Deron, and a shot at Dwight or Hibbert, over an offensively inept big, with a vast injury history. 

            What it all comes down to is trusting Cuban and Donnie Nelson.  Those two have built a team that could have won it in ’03 (Dirk injury when the Spurs series was at 1-1), should have won in ’06 (corrupt officiating), was the favorite in ’07 (worst matchup possible against the only man who could be them that year) and won it in ’11.  They know what the hell they are doing.  Let them do it, and don’t try to think you are smarter than them.  They know more than you. The analogy that really fits is the Cowboys in ’96: if you could have traded Aikman, Emmitt and Irvin for max draft picks and young talent, would you of?  Get out early, not late, or the Mavs could be stuck in mediocrity for 16 years.