Thursday, March 29, 2012

Final Four Preview

            I hate the BCS.  I am very outspoken about how much I hate it.  The recent progression towards at least a plus-one is a good start to fixing college football.  College basketball is widely accepted as not needing to be fixed.  Does it determine the best team?  Not exactly, I think a 16 or 32-team tournament with best of 3 series’ would accomplish that better.  But it still establishes the most deserving team by beating 6 (or 7) of the other best 68 teams in a matter of about 16 days with teams getting a fair shot rather than computers or old and biased writers/coaches determining things.
            Recently I heard someone defending the BCS “National Championship” game as being just as legitimate as the Final Four this year: both matchups are rematches from earlier in the season and the title game could be a rematch as well.  The big difference is the BCS’ slogan is that “Every Game Matters” so there should not be any rematches.  College Basketball has no such slogan, as teams play around forty games a season.   It’s supposed to be that the first matchup between LSU/Bama was its own mini-playoff game to see who gets to go on to the championship.  Basketball has these early season matchups as to better gauge each team for seeding and tournament purposes.  When it comes down to it, LSU and Alabama played their first game as if they lost then their season was over, while the Final Four teams did not.  Otherwise Jared Sullinger would have played against Kansas.  To me, it only adds intrigue to the final 3 games of the college basketball season.

Midwest #2 Kansas vs. East #2 Ohio State
First Matchup: @Kansas 78  --  Ohio State 67
            Although the Buckeyes’ best player did not play in the first game between these two teams, plenty can still be learned from that matchup at Allen Fieldhouse. 

Outside:
            Aaron Craft is one of the most pesky perimeter defenders in the nation, but he also has a penchant for fouling too much.  He fouled out in the Buckeyes’ Elite Eight game as well as the first matchup against the Jayhawks.  Thad Matta had put Craft on Tyshawn Taylor for the majority of the first game which caused the foul trouble.  I’d guess that Matta will start Craft off of Taylor, but should he be forced to switch him back then Taylor will become super aggressive to get Craft off the court.  Craft is about as valuable to the Ohio State offense as Kendall Marshall was to the North Carolina offense.  If he is off of the floor then the Buckeyes’ become disjointed and lack decent motion and ball movement.
            The sudden emergence of Jayhawk wing Elijah Johnson has given Kansas the third scorer it was hoping to find at the beginning of the season.  Over the last six games between the Big XII and NCAA tournaments, Johnson is averaging 16 points (7 higher than his season average) and is 15 for 33 from beyond the arc (45%).  Also notable is the first time these teams played, he scored 15 points and was 5 of 7 from deep.  His backcourt companion Tyshawn Taylor finally busted out of his slump in the Elite Eight.  With Marshall out, Taylor regained his confidence scoring 22 with 6 rebounds and 5 assists.  I expect him to keep that assurance going knowing that the last time these teams played he dished out thirteen assists.  My one worry is his reliance on shooting threes, as he has missed his last 19 attempts and has not made one in the NCAA Tourney.  Should he stay assertive and take it inside more, he becomes exponentially more efficient, as he shot 10 of 14 from 2’s in the last round.  Like I said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Craft starts on Johnson to try and avoid fouls, but between Johnson and Taylor the Buckeyes will have to pick their poison.
            I definitely have to give the perimeter edge to Kansas with the emergence of Elijah Johnson.  The kid is cold-blooded and single handedly brought them back against Purdue.  Both he and Taylor are playing with a lot of poise and swagger which is quite dangerous for the Buckeyes.  Should Craft get into foul trouble, the inside play might not even matter as the Kansas guards run amok. 

Inside:
            This game will feature the first matchup between the best low post players in college basketball in Thomas Robinson and Jared Sullinger.  Sullinger missed the first game with back spasms and Robinson had one of the more efficient games of his career scoring 21 points on just 9 shots and pulling down 7 rebounds.  He has also been a terror inside for the tournament averaging 16 points and almost 13 rebounds a game as his draft stock soars.  Sullinger hasn’t been bad in the tournament either, going for 18 and 8 a game.  I’d have to give the edge to Robinson so far though, as he has had to deal with the bigs from North Carolina and N.C. State which are a little more menacing than a Fab Melo-less Syracuse.
            The other front court players could end up deciding this game with the stars possibly canceling each other out.  Jeff Withey of Kansas was not asked for much the first time these teams played, as he only had one shot attempt and two points, but he has stepped up his game in the tournament, especially against the Tar Heels when he put up a tough 15 point and 8 rebound performance.  Ohio State’s William Buford and Deshaun Thomas give the edge in athleticism at the forward position to the Buckeyes.  Buford struggled in the first meeting, going 8 for 23 from the floor.  He had a decent Elite Eight with 13 and 9 after no showing in the sweet sixteen.  Deshaun Thomas, on the other hand, has the Buckeyes’ most valuable player in the tournament.  He’s averaging 22 points and 9 rebounds a game, including a huge 31 and 12 in their victory over Syracuse.  I think Thomas will make the difference at the forward position.
            Of the two top-ten draft picks, I think Robinson is better and will play better than Sullinger.  Withey and Buford will probably be a wash, but the Jayhawks have no answer for Deshaun Thomas.  For that reason alone, I give the slight edge to Ohio State’s front court.

Overall:
            I think this might be the most competitive game of this otherwise bland tournament.  These teams match up very well with each other and there is also plenty of NBA star power on the floor.  The first meeting’s final should not be factored in that much, since it was at Kansas and Sullinger did not play.  Kansas has the better back court, while Ohio State has the better front court.  Kansas has the best player on the floor but Ohio State has slightly more depth.  I think the game will come down to Elijah Johnson and Deshaun Thomas.  If Aaron Craft stays out of foul trouble, then whoever scores more of those two will help their team win.  With that said, I’m going to have to go with Ohio State (even though I need Kansas to win it all for my bracket pool) with a small footnote of as long as Craft plays 35 minutes plus.

South #1 Kentucky vs. West #4 Louisville
First Meeting: @Kentucky 69 – Louisville 62
Rick Pitino against the team that he took to the promised land in one of the more heated rivalries in all of college sports: it could get ugly though.

Outside:
There’s going to be a prevalent theme with breaking down Kentucky: every guy that is in the rotation will probably make an NBA team.  Although their strength is their dominant front court, the Wildcats’ perimeter players are not exactly a weakness.  To put how deep this Kentucky team is, they have probably the top two players for the next NBA Draft (Davis/Kidd-Gilchrist) along with two other potential first rounders (Jones/Teague) but the leading scorer in the NCAA Tournament so far is: Doron Lamb with 17 points a game (yet he hasn’t led the team in a single game).  He is also shooting 55% from beyond the arc.  This, coupled with Marquis Teague’s 15 points, 3 rebounds and 5 assists a game forms quite the formidable back court.  Toss in senior Darius Miller off the bench with his 13 and 4 and this is a tough set of guards.
Louisville’s heart and soul lie with diminutive point guard Peyton Siva.  His numbers (9 points, 7 assists in the tournament) don’t show how he navigates the court and has helped the underachieving Cardinals win the Big East tournament as well as reach the Final Four.  This is just not a good matchup for Siva though.  The first meeting saw Siva go 2 for 13 from the field and have 7 turnovers.  His back court starting mate is Chris Smith, who is the team’s defender and only chips in about 7 a game.  The perimeter player that Louisville will rely on for scoring is guard Russ Smith, their sixth man.  In the first meeting with the Wildcats, Smith went off for 30 points and 5 rebounds, including three 3-pointers.  If the Cardinals want any change at beating Kentucky, Smith will have to continue his 70% 3-point shooting in the tournament and probably outscore himself from the first game.
            The length and athleticism of Teague, Lamb and Miller are just too much for the smaller Louisville guards.  It will take some absolutely lights out shooting by Smith with the best game of Siva’s life to even contend with Kentucky.  I don’t see that happening, so I give a big edge to the Wildcats.

Inside:
            Chane Behanan has had a solid tournament with 14 points and 8 rebounds a game for Louisville, but he has yet to face Anthony Davis.  In the first matchup, Davis had 6 blocks to go with his 18 points/10 rebounds and many of those swats were of Behanan’s shots.  As noted before, the Wildcats get away with anything they want around the rim, so it is going to be a tough go of it for Behanan.  Gorgui Diengi had a solid game defending Terrance Jones in the first game, holding him to 1 of 9 shooting.  I feel like Jones will take that to heart and come out big and assert himself on the block and around the rim.  He still had 11 rebounds in that game, and is averaging 9 a game in the tournament with his 14 points.
            The place where this game could get ugly is at the small forward spot.  Michael Kidd-Gilchrist might be the most talented and athletic player in the nation.  He put on a show against Louisville and Kyle Kuric the first time, scoring 24 points and pulling down 19 rebounds, all while holding Kuric, a double digit scorer, to just 2 points.  If Kidd-Gilchrist gets going in transition off of defensive plays and builds up the momentum for Kentucky’s fast-break game, then this game could get out of hand.  Either way there is a huge advantage in the post for the Wildcats.

Overall:
            I almost just wrote: “Kentucky has Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist, Jones, Lamb, Teague, and Miller, and Louisville does not” for a preview of this game.  That’s all you really need to know.  Even if one of the big guys gets in foul trouble, Kyle Wiltjer would be a starter for Louisville.  The Wildcats have all six main rotation guys averaging over 13 points a game in the tournament with four of them averaging better than 15.  The balance, passing abilities, unselfishness, athleticism and overall swagger of Kentucky will beat down Louisville.  The Cardinals kept it close the first game while the team of young Kentucky guys was still getting used to playing together, but this will be the Wildcats in a blow out.

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

5 Observations From the Sunday Elite Eight Games

1.      Kentucky gets away with murder inside, and gets Jordan-calls on the perimeter
Anyone that watched the Kentucky/Baylor game knows that it was a one-sided officiating affair.  The referees made it clear from that flagrant foul on Quincy Acy in the opening minutes that Kentucky would be getting their help all game.  That foul was closer to a clean block than a flagrant as he hit the ball with his arm first, then the follow through made contact with the Wildcat player.
A few times I had to flip it over to watch Tiger become Tiger again just because the officiating was so atrocious.  The amount of perimeter fouls called on Baylor defenders was just ridiculous.  The Bear player would be trying to fight through a screen and hand check a little on the hip (something that happens on almost every screen in the NCAA as well as NBA) and the ref would blow his whistle.  There was no advantage/disadvantage really gained, just slight amounts of contact.
Even worse was the lack of calls against the Kentucky big men inside.  I am not taking away that this Kentucky team is the best shot blocking collegiate team ever, but their reputation has gotten its way into the heads of the referees.  The majority of the time, Anthony Davis or Terrance Jones did get “all ball” up top, but there was a good deal of contact being made down low.  These two are experts at the small tug/push on the hip when the guy jumps as to lower his elevation height, making it easier to block his shot.  The abuse that Acy was taking inside was just a complete injustice. 
At one point, the color-commentator said that Kentucky is amazing because they “play great defense without fouling.”  The play-by-play guy literally had nothing to say back, wondering what we were all wondering watching the game: if the commentator was watching the same game.  The facts are facts though: 32 Baylor fouls, 18 against Kentucky.  The Wildcats were in the DOUBLE bonus with 12 minutes left in the second half putting an end t o any run that Baylor could make.  Now would Baylor have won the game with fair officiating? I’m not sure, but they would have at least been given a fair shot.

2.      Perry Jones III should be ashamed with his first half
PJIII’s first half: 1-5 shooting, 2 points, 3 rebounds and an ass-kicking from Anthony Davis.  Jones would have been a top-3 pick last year if he had entered the NBA Draft but came back because he wanted to let his game mature to be number one.  Well the guy who will be number one kicked his ass in the first half.  Yeah, Jones finished with 17 points and 8 rebounds, but that should only have been more embarrassing that he no-showed the first half just like he no-showed the first three tournament games.
Davis started the game on Quincy Acy; that should tell you right there how far Jones has fallen that the opposing team stuck their best defender on the smaller, less of a prospect Acy.  Nevertheless, Quincy Acy drew a quick foul on the Unibrow and rather than risk foul trouble Calipari moved Davis over to guard Perry Jones.  From that point on, Davis did not pick up a foul until midway through the second half, and Jones did not score again until then either.
The lack of fouls on Davis shows how complacent and non-assertive Jones was playing.  He would get the ball and as soon as Davis would put his hands in his face, Jones turned into Lebron James last year in the fourth quarter: hot potato.  On defense, Anthony Davis and Terrance Jones repeatedly grabbed rebounds away from PJIII which led to a few grimaces his way from Quincy Acy.
Perry Jones has the talent to play significantly in the NBA.  He could easily be LeMarcus Aldridge in the right situation with the right mindset, but from this game you can see that he can become timid against strong opposition.  If Jones can become assertive with the ball in his hands as well as going after rebounds than he can regain the form that saw him projected as that top pick.  If he can’t then he will be the 11th man off the bench only playing when the game is out of hand.  Either way, he owes Acy and the rest of the Bears an apology for his play in the first half.  Had he played as strongly in the first as he had in the second half, then the officiating might not have mattered, and the Bears could have pulled off the upset.

3.      Draft stock of different players
It’s been an accepted truth since the beginning of the season that Anthony Davis and his unibrow will be the number one pick come June.  However, through the NCAA Tournament thus far, I might have to take a closer examination on who should get that honor.  I’m not taking away from the season that Davis has had, it’s been one of the more dominant defensive as well as all-around seasons a college basketball player has had in some time, but when it comes to the translation of his game to the NBA, I’m a little more critical now.
Davis has shown the best shot-blocking ability since Hakeem Olajuwon with the Phi Slamma Jamma Houston team in the early 1980’s.  After watching him defend against other NBA-caliber big men though, I’m not so sure he will be able to have such a drastic effect on the pro game.  His length is his greatest asset when blocking shots, but his body needs much improvement.  Honestly, could you see him being able to bang inside with Dwight Howard or Nene?  He was having a hard time handling the 6’7’’ Quincy Acy whenever he would get physical.  His offensive game could use some polish as well.  He has a good jumper and can handle it, but once again his post game relies on his length.  Every big man in the NBA has length though, so he will have to work on his back to the basket game.  Does he have the most potential of any draft eligible player?  I would have to say yes.  But there are also some Greg Oden and Kwame Brown-esque facets to his game that worry me.
When it comes to being NBA ready, I think Bradley Beal and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are the top two.  Kidd-Gilchrist gets completely overshadowed by Davis, but his athleticism and drive remind me a lot of Andre Iguodala, except Kidd-Gilchrist is a slightly better scorer.  Beal on the other hand, has a silky smooth jumper that he can hit from anywhere beyond half court.  I didn’t realize what a solid rebounder he is until watching him in the tournament.  With the lack of solid true shooting guards under the age of 30 in the NBA right now, I think Beal might shoot to the top 5 at that position as a rookie.  He has a high ceiling and could end up being a number one option on a contender.
The biggest impression I got over the weekend was the aforementioned Quincy Acy.  His 22 points and 8 rebounds against the bigs of Kentucky showed that he is not afraid to take it to anyone and that he can elevate his level of play to the competition.  He’s projected to be a late second round pick, but I’d take him much sooner.  He has a muscular frame and plays much higher than his mid-6 foot height.  I think he can be a rich-man’s DeJuan Blair on a contender or even in the mold of a more aggressive but smaller Brandon Bass/Glen Davis.

4.      Absence of Kendall Marshall
I decided to leave my thoughts on Harrison Barnes to this observation, because I think we just saw how good Kendall Marshall really is as a point guard.  Barnes had a slow start to his freshman season, but kicked it into high gear at the end of the year hitting numerous game winners and averaging over 20 points a game.  This year he has kept his scoring average up as well as his shooting percentages and looked to be a top 3 pick come June.  Then Kendall Marshall went down and we saw the Barnes of early last season.  This brings up the question as to how much Marshall affects the way that Barnes is seen as a prospect.
I was high on Harrison Barnes ever since last year.  He has an alpha-dog mentality, especially at the end of games, that you just cannot teach.  However, without Marshall on the floor, Barnes’ weaknesses were paramount.  He does not possess (or at least did not show it) the ability to create his own shot.  This can be attributed to his slow first step, or lack of a back-to-the-basket game (although he did show some signs of this at the beginning of the second half, he just needs more confidence in it) but either way he was struggling without Marshall to set him up.
With Marshall in the lineup I’m still not sure that North Carolina wins the game outright, though.  There was no one on the planet that could guard some of the shots Tyshawn Taylor was hitting, and it’s not like Marshall was going to outrebound Thomas Robinson or Jeff Withey.  Stillman White wasn’t bad by any means: the guy had seven assists and zero turnovers.  Now Marshall probably would have scored more than 4 points, but he’s not exactly a 20-point a night guy.
Either way, when it comes down to it, the Kendall Marshall injury probably helped decide the National Champion.  I have had Kansas winning it all from the beginning, but they are far from the favorite with Kentucky looming.  However, if North Carolina had beaten Kansas and gone to the Final Four with a healthy Kendall Marshall, I would have to given them the best odds at winning it all.  They were an Anthony Davis block from beating Kentucky AT Rupp.  Either way, the drama that a tournament can bring to determining the champion makes the recent BCS debacle look even worse.
5.      The BCS Sucks
This has been one of the more mundane and boring tournaments with regards to buzzer beaters, but it is still (quoting my dawg Randy Jackson) a ZILLION times better than the BCS.  I need to stop or this could go for another two-thousand words.

Saturday, March 24, 2012

5 Questions Facing the Rangers

5. Who will get the majority of the starts in Center Field?
            Nelson Cruz is penned into the right field spot, but who starts in left and center are a daily question facing the Rangers.  Last year, Hamilton, Borbon, Gentry and Murphy all made starts in center, with all but Borbon starting in left as well.  Of the 3, Murphy is the biggest lock for the roster and lineup as he was one of the top 5 hitters in baseball after the All-Star break last season.  Gentry had the other spot sewn up before the spring, but Julio has impressed while Gentry has struggled a little bit.  Borbon has hit .323 and shown some pop with a homer and Gentry has struggled at .136 as well as battle nagging injuries.
            What it first will come down to is whether Texas keeps four or five outfielders.  I think the bullpen situation will dictate it as the club decides between a 7 or 8 man pen.  My guess is that they will keep all give outfielders as it gives them numerous more lineup possibilities to play matchups well and divvy up getting guys days off.
            So with that said, all 5 will be on the roster opening day, but who will be the starters in left and center?  Hamilton is one of the better fielding outfielders in baseball, but he also gets injured being this great fielder.  The team has leaned toward keeping him in left to try and decrease the chance of injury, but if they want the best bat in the lineup that would leave Murphy in center, where he is somewhat of a liability. 
            I think the team will want Murphy’s bat in the lineup on opening day, and give Hamilton the start in center.  However, I think he will start the majority of the season in left and Murphy at DH, with Young at first base.  This leaves Borbon and Gentry to battle for the center field starts, which with the way the spring has gone I will give the edge to the resurgent Borbon.

4. Does Joe Nathan still have the stuff to be an elite closer?
            The 37-year old Nathan will start the season as the Rangers’ closer, but some are wary of if he still has the same stuff that led him to be the all-time leader in saves for the Twins.  He had Tommy John surgery in 2010, but was able to make a comeback last season.  He pitched in 48 games and had 14 saves out of 17 chances which is a good rate.  However, he only had 43 strikeouts in those 44.2 innings and an ERA near 5.  Now it could just have been rust coming off the injury (he was on the DL again for a couple weeks due to soreness) but it also could have been a sign of things to come.
            What it comes down to is the Rangers took a low-risk chance on a guy who had 47 saves in 52 opportunities just 3 seasons ago.  Now he did have the TJ surgery, but many have come back just as strong with less of an injury weakness afterward.  He also hasn’t looked good in the spring, with an ERA of 13.50 and two blown saves, but I think Wash will still give him the nod to start the season as the closer.  The worst that happens is he blows a couple and either Alexi Ogando or Mike Adams gets the job, two more than capable guys.
            My expectation is that the spring is just Nathan getting into the groove.  He’s been in the league for 11 years so he knows that he doesn’t have to get all geared up for every spring appearance.  I think that once he gets out on the mound for his first save opportunity in the opening weekend, we will see the Nathan of 2009 and he will have a solid season.  Even if he doesn’t, there could be worst problems than having Alexi Ogando to close out games.

3. Can the Rangers stay healthy?
            I probably should adjust this to can the Rangers’ outfielders stay healthy, as the rest of the roster is as deep as it gets.  The infield has Michael Young to play all four spots along with 2 quality catchers, there are two pitchers who have won 14+ games as starters in the bullpen, but the outfield is a different story. 
            Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz missed a combined 79 games last year.  While there are capable backup outfielders (Borbon, Gentry, Murphy) the Texas lineup needs its big bats in the middle.  You just have to look back at the playoffs where Cruz carried the team through the Detroit series and Hamilton kept them in the World Series.  Whether Hambone is playing left or center, there are chances of him diving into the wall and missing extended time: it’s just how he plays. 
Adrian Beltre also missed almost 40 games last year as well.  Michael Young can fill in at 3rd base but the drop-off from Beltre’s bat to either Torrealba or one of the extra outfielders is huge.  There’s also the drop-off in defense from the Gold Glove winning Beltre to the aging Young.
If any of these guys miss extended time then the Rangers could be in trouble against the likes of the Angels with that excellent pitching staff.  If Texas is going to stay with Anaheim then they will need their lineup fully loaded.  Hitting will always be the Rangers strength, and if they don’t have their three elite power hitters, then that strength is in jeopardy.

2. Which left-hander (if any) makes the bullpen?
            There are 23 roster spots that are set, with the last two being still up in the air.  One of the extra spots might go to a fifth outfielder and the last spot will be an extra bullpen arm.  The moving of Ogando back to a setup role with the signing of Joe Nathan and trade for Mike Adams last year has solidified the one weakness on the team into a strength.  However, all of the aforementioned as well as the other established relief pitchers are right-handed.
            Ron Washington said on the Hardline the other day that he will go with a complete righty-bullpen if those are the best players.  He’s not worried about which side the ball comes from, just what happens when it crosses the plate.  Along with Ogando, Nathan and Adams will be Scott Feldman as a long guy, set-up man Mark Lowe and the sidearm Japanese righty Yoshinori Tateyama.  Koji Uehara had the other spot but he has continued his disturbing trend of letting guys hit the ball really, really far.  In five innings this spring he has given up 10 runs, 3 home runs and an opposing batting average .400.  That all amounts to an ERA of 16.88.  If the Rangers have lost faith in him then they may make a move to one of the following:
Ben Snyder, LHP: Ben Snyder has had the best spring of any left hander in the pen.  The 26-year old out of Ball State has gone 5 appearances with 5 and a third thrown, no runs and an opponent’s average of 0.063.  Though relatively unknown (he doesn’t even have a Wikipedia page) and a small sample size, Wash has liked what he’s seen and I think we will see him at some point before September call-ups.
Michael Kirkman, LHP: The only left hander with experience with the Rangers, Kirkman hasn’t impressed this spring.  He has an ERA of 7.00 and a WHIP of 1.44.  I think if the Rangers go with an 8-man pen or leave Uehara of the roster, Kirkman will start the season on the 25-man.
Robert Ross, LHP: Though he only got to AA Frisco last year, Ross was impressive with a 2.34 ERA and more importantly an opposing left handed batting average of .167.  Though he was a starter last season, he was worked from the pen in the Spring and impressed with no earned runs and only 3 hits compared to 7 strikeouts for a WHIP of 0.60.  He’s probably not quite ready, but should the Rangers want to make him a reliever for good he could be up around mid-season.
Mark Hamburger, RHP: Should the Rangers decide for just a different right hander than Uehara they will probably go with Hamburger who spent some time in the Bigs last season.  He hasn’t been that impressive in the spring with a 4.50 ERA, but he has more experience than any of the other relievers in camp vying for the spot.
            So when it is all said and done, I wouldn’t be surprised if Wash gives Uehara one more shot and he still might be the last guy in, but it may be by default since none of the left handers are established major leaguers.  He will have a short leash though and look for one of the three lefties to come up, whichever is having the best season in the minors.  My guess will be Snyder as his stuff has looked the most dynamic.

1.      How will Neftali Feliz and Yu Darvish transition into the starting rotation?

Ever since he was in the minors, Feliz was being groomed to be a top of the rotation guy.  Ever since he started playing professionally at age 18, Darvish has been a top of the rotation guy.  Now with both in a major league starting rotation, can they live up to the hype and billing?
Feliz was a starter throughout the minor leagues until Texas transitioned him into a reliever role in the playoff push of the 2009 season.  He then set the rookie record for saves in a season in 2010 so there was no rush to plug him into a solid rotation.  Now that he has matured and developed his secondary pitches, the club feels it’s time (pun intended) for Feliz to get a shot starting.  His spring has been unspectacular but not especially bad (4.50 ERA, .290 opponent’s average and only 7 K’s in 9 innings) but it has showcased his abilities to use his other pitches.  This will be the key factor for Nefti, as before he could just overpower with his fast ball.  Now that guys will see him 2-3 times in a single game, he will have to use his off-speed stuff to get outs.   
The other factor that could hamper Feliz is his mental state after game si-… I still need time before I can talk about that.
Darvish has come to the U.S. as the most hyped Japanese star ever.  What he also brings is the most Major League body physically of any of the Japanes hurlers.  While guys like Tateyama, Uehara and Dice-K all are about 5 foot 10, Darvish is an imposing 6’5’’.  His track record in Japan is pretty ridiculous: 93-38, 18 shutouts, 1.99 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 1,259 strikeouts in 1,268 innings.  Last year alone he set career best marks of ERA (1.44), WHIP (0.83), and strikeouts (276).  What he will have to get used to is the depth of the lineups in the majors compared to his Japanese League as well as pitching on 4 days rest instead of five.  So far he has been able to handle the new league only giving up an ERA of 3.00 with an opponent’s average of .207 and 10 strikeouts in 9 innings.
Both of these guys have the physical attributes, secondary pitches, and high-90’s heat to be Ace pitchers in the Bigs.  What gives these two an advantage is that they are not being asked to be the top of the rotation guy right off the bat.  Colby Lewis can maintain that role for the season as the 25 year old Darvish and 23 year old Feliz mature and develop without as much pressure.  They both will have their innings closely monitored (especially Feliz who has already felt shoulder tightness) but I will make a bold sports promise that both will win more than 10 games and finish above .500.
The health, back of the bullpen and last outfielder spot questions are problems facing every team going into every season in Major League Baseball.  So if the only real question is how your team’s All-Star closer switches into a starting role for an All-Star starting pitcher who goes back to the bullpen, or how the best pitcher in Japanese history transitions to the U.S. then you’re team is in pretty good shape.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Mr. Overly-Irrationally Confident, Jason Terry

There is a disturbing trend involving the Mavericks that could endanger their hopes of a repeat championship run (and possibly even a playoff spot).  This trend is centered on the king of irrational confidence, Jason Terry.  While the Jet hit a couple of the biggest shots in Mavericks’ History last year in the Finals, this year there is something different about his style and it’s hurting the team.
From a pure numbers point, Terry is having a down year without a doubt.  His scoring is down a point a game from last year and almost a point and a half from his career average.  His assists per game are down from 4.1 to 3.5.  Jet’s shooting percentage as fallen below 43%, when his career average is around 45% and last year was slightly above it.  His three-point percentage is only slightly below his career average, however all of these statistics (the 3-point % in particular) do not tell the whole story.
Jet has always been the Mavericks’ Irrational Confidence guy, something that every team needs.  He is the guy that takes a shot that in the midst of an offense is a terrible shot and should have very little chance of going in (and little confidence from the shooter) but he is defiant to take it anyway (and hit it).  The best example is the nail-in-the-coffin three-pointer he hit over LeBron James in the Finals last year.  There’s no way in hell that he “should” have taken that shot, but because it was drilled, it brought momentum and actual confidence in the team.  I think being this guy for the Mavericks for so long has gotten to Terry’s head. 
While Jet’s three-point percentage is not significantly different, there is a factor that has increased in a negative way: three-point attempts.  Terry is average over an entire attempt a game more this year than last year, while still taking the same number of total shots.  This accounts for his decrease in overall field goal percentage.  More importantly, this higher number of three-pointers shot shows that Jet is being less efficient and selective with his shooting.
What cannot be accounted for with numbers are the momentum shifts and fast breaks that have been affected by Terry’s play.  At least once or twice a game, Jet will be part of an advantageous fast break (3 on 1, 4 on 2 etc.) and just pull up for a three rather than take it to the basket for either his own or a teammate’s easy layup.  It cannot be directly correlated, but say he does this once a game, and every other time he either gets a layup or he gets an assist to a teammate’s layup.  That would come out to about half an assist and a point a game, exactly what Terry is averaging less this season.  Now he has made a few, so that the difference doesn’t completely show how many times he has done it, but no one can say that his black hole of a shot selection on fast breaks is good for a team averaging eight less points per game compared to last season.
The most troubling aspect of Terry’s play this season also cannot be shown with numbers: his late game performance.  I am not doubting his entire fourth quarter performance as he is still near the top of the league in 4th quarter scoring, I’m talking about the last minute of the game.  Dirk Nowitzki showed last season that he is the best closer in the league when he took the Mavs to the title.  Jason Terry had his moments of closing games out, but his were more shots off of a double team on Dirk or a kick out from him.  Very rarely did Jet take it upon himself and create his own shot in the late game situations and it be successful. 
This season he has not deferred to Dirk.  In a span of three games around the All-Star Break, all losses by the Mavericks, Terry directly contributed to the late-game failures.  The first two games Terry tried to create too much without involving Dirk and had two turnovers in the last minute of each.  The third game involved Dirk not even getting to touch the ball during the two most critical possessions as Jet took two long, fadeaway jumpers, one that grazed the iron and one that was an air ball.  The latter of the situations even caused Dirk to express anger and frustration with the lack of cohesion in the Mavericks’ late game offense.
The Mavericks are a measly 6-9 in games decided by five points or less, including losing four of their last five such games after going 19-11 last year in them.  They are averaging 92 points per game compared to 100 last season (and yes, I know the entire NBA is down in scoring, but not by 8 points a game).  Are these directly because of Jason Terry alone? No, Lamar Odom shoulders a lot of the blame as well.  However, if this team wants to make another playoff run then Jet has to know his role.  He has to remember that there are times for the irrational confidence shots: just not all of the time.  Take the easy layup if it’s given to you.  Most importantly, in the case of a close game late, the easy layup is giving the ball to the Big German and watching his greatness.

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Ranking the A. L. West: Lineups

1.     Texas Rangers

The Rangers bring back the most loaded lineup top-bottom in the major league.  This is the area where the 2-time defending American League champions separate themselves from the pack, especially in their division.  It all starts at the top with second baseman Ian Kinsler.  While some like having Elvis before him to put more guys on for Kins, I feel that he is one of the best leadoff men in baseball IF he is not in a home run mood.  Kinsler can make some of the best solid-line drive contact of anyone in the division, but tends to take some huge uppercuts as he tries to swing for the fences like last season (.255/.355/.477 with 32 bombs).  Good numbers for a 5 hole, not a leadoff.   If he can realize that four of the next five hitters are all legitimate threats to hit it out on every pitch, and just worry about getting on then this lineup is nearly unstoppable. 
            In the 2-hole was Elvis Andrus a lot last year, but I think it’s time to move Michael Young back.  He had one of the better seasons of his career in his first go at being a primary DH.  If he can come close to those numbers (.338/.380/.474), the second spot is prime for him to get on and allow Josh Hamilton to do this thing.  If he’s there, or in the middle the club needs another strong season from him.  Elvis had a decent season himself posting career highs .279/.347/.361 while stealing 37 bases.  He even added some pop with almost doubling his home run total having 5.  If he adds that line-drive power he is dangerous.  Hambone has had a troubling past few weeks and has definitely rubbed me the wrong way with his comment that he “doesn’t owe the Rangers anything”.  Now I’m not saying that he does owe them to give them a discount on his contract, I mean a guy has to make his money.  But with the recent events surrounding his relapse, I’d like to see a little more humility.  Either way, when the guy is in the lineup, he rakes and is protected by the best third baseman in baseball, Adrian Beltre.  Beltre did not disappoint in his first year with the Rangers living up to every penny of his contract hitting .296/.331/.561 with 32 home runs and 105 RBI.  He seems to love it in Texas, especially hitting behind Hamilton and in front of masher Nelson Cruz.  Like Hamilton, Cruz just crushes the ball when he’s healthy, but that has always been the issue with either one of them.  While he may be the only Ranger with triple-digit strikeouts, he did become the most clutch hitter when the game was on the line with a series of walkoff home runs.
            This is where the lineup gets extremely dangers.  In the six spot will mostly be Mike Napoli, and the seven spot will see a good deal of David Murphy.  Ya know, the two guys who had the best August/Septembers at the plate in all of baseball, and they are hitting 6 and 7 (or 7 and 8 if Elvis is in the 2 spot).  With Napoli, the Rangers have arguably the best hitting catcher in the game .320/.414/.631 (outrageous OPS of 1.046).  At the back end of the lineup you will see a mixture of people depending on where Ron Washington has Michael Young and Mike Napoli (who’s DH’ing or catching that day).  That mixture will include Mitch Moreland (.259/.320/.414), Craig Gentry (.271/.347/.346) and Yorvit Torrealba (.273/.306/.399) for the most part, and as you will soon see after reading about the rest of the West, all of which would hit in the middle or top of the lineup with any other team in the division.
            Overall this lineup is as deep as they come in the majors.  No other team can go 1-8 deep with as good of bats as the Rangers do.  The great pitching of recent times in the west has somewhat overshadowed the lineup in general, but with the A’s and Mariners dealing four of the best pitchers in the division, look for the bats to really breakout even more than they have the past few years.

2.     The The Angels Angels of Anahiem

TTAAA caught the biggest fish in free agency since A-Rod when they signed Albert Pujols away from the St. Louis Cardinals.  It caught almost everyone by surprise as the deal all came together in about 48 hours, but in retrospect it needed to happen if they wanted to contend with the Rangers.  Texas was just getting better and more experience and TTAAA were getting older and losing some of the stroke.  Inserting Pujols in that lineup (really, him in any lineup) injects the best hitter of the past twelve years and causes everyone else to be somewhat overlooked at the plate.
Leading off for TTAAA will be Erick Aybar who wasn’t that great of a leadoff man with a .322 OB and 30 steals last year.  Hitting second will probably be whoever is DH’ing that game (most likely by the other team’s starting pitcher as Morales hits right, and Abreu left), either Bobby Abreu’s ghost or Kendry Morales.  Morales missed the past season and a half after injuring himself in a walkoff celebration, so I can’t see much out of him even if he’s healthy.  Abreu has been on a free fall since his Home Run Derby win of 2005, although he did have the highest OB of any regular last season at .353 (which still isn’t that great).  These two spots will be key to set the table for when Pujols comes up so that he just doesn’t get a free pass.
After Pujols it will probably be some combination of Torii Hunter, Mark Trumbo and Howie Kendrick.  I think TTAAA will stick with Trumbo at third base, or if neither of the previous DH’s are hitting well out of spring have Trumbo go there.  Last year’s rookie of the year runner-up led all rookies with 29 bombs and 87 RBI’s so I think Scioscia will put him after Hunter in hopes of keeping guys on for him.  Howie Kendrick is a solid 6-hole as he was second on the team with a .285 average and tied for first in total bases at 249.
The next spot is the most interesting for TTAAA, as the question of whether Vernon Wells can rebound could be the x-factor for this team.  If Wells can play like he did pre-contract with the Blue Jays, then the lineup can at least hit in the same ballpark as the Rangers, but if it’s more of the .218/.248/.412 of last season then he will be the gaping hole again.  After him is the weakest spot in their lineup, catcher Chris Iannetta.  He comes over from the Rockies and while his numbers don’t look that bad, when you factor in that he was .262/.377.492 at Coors Field and .208/.338/.369 everywhere else, you can see how much the home park helped him.  Rounding out the lineup will be Peter Bourjos, a serviceable nine-spot.  He has good speed with 22 SB and a little bit of pop as well (12 HR).
            You can easily see that outside of Pujols the Rangers have the edge in every other spot in the lineup.  What will be interesting is how it all shakes out.  I think that Abreu will struggle and Morales will stay hurt, meaning Trumbo will move to DH and Alberto Callaspo (their leading hitter by average last season) will come in at third base.  To me, it seems better that way, but Ranger fans should like it better with him or Trumbo on the pine.  Either way, the lineup outside of Pujols will have to take advantage of the better pitches they will see if they want to keep up with Texas

3.     Seattle Mariners

The drop-off between the top two lineups in the division to the third is as drastic as it gets in the majors.  The Mariners at least have made some upgrades to their lineup (although it may have destroyed their pitching depth).  While they may not have any big names past Ichiro, this lineup has somewhat of a bright future.  The problem is giving the young guys experience, as last year only Ichiro and Olivio had enough at bats to qualify for average.
            The Mariners might have to leadoff with veteran Chone Figgins.  Figgins was supposed to be battling for the third base spot but with Franklin Gutierrez tearing his pectoral muscle and being out for the time being, Figgins will have to take over the center field and leadoff holes vacated.  He had the worst season of his career last year with a .188/.241/.243 split and only 11 steals.  However, he is a lifetime .280/.352/.368 guy who if he can get back to form could be a solid leadoff.  The second spot will probably be top prospect Dustin Ackley.  The second baseman played the second half of last season quite well, putting up a split of .273/.348/.417 while drawing 40 walks.  He played outfield in college so he might get some time in center as well. 
            Ichiro looked like he was finally starting to tail off last season, but with a .272/.310/.335 he still is a 200-hit threat.  Mike Carp will likely hit cleanup, basically out of the lack of power on the team.  No one hit 20 homers last season, and Carp at least was on pace to if he played the whole season.  His batting average was also highest (.276) among regulars.  Jesus Montero will either be fifth or switch with carp in cleanup.  The gem of the Michael Pineda trade, Montero has plus power.  The problem is the cavernous ravine that is Safeco Field, so it could cause the 22-year old some growing pains.  Nonetheless, in his brief career he has hit a bomb once every 4 games and hit .328/.406/.590.  After Montero will be the Rangers’ castoff Justin Smoak.  In his first full year as a starter, Smoak struggled with a .234/.323..396.  For a guy who is supposed to have some pop, the slugging and home run total (15 HR, 55 RBI) have to trend upward.
            The bottom of the lineup starts with veteran catcher Miguel Olivio. He had an above average home run year with 19, but only hit .224/.253/.388 with 140 K’s to only 20 walks.  He needs to cut that strikeout total in half to really help this lineup.  Kelly Seager looks to get the third base spot.  In his first stint in the bigs last year, he was serviceable at .258/.312/.379.  The year before last he led the minors in hits with 192 so he could have a breakout year.  Rounding out the lineup is shortstop Brendan Ryan.  He is a defensive minded fielder that gets hot about a month out of every year, the Mariners could really use a consistent year from him.
            The Mariners have a few guys who could breakout with their first full year in the majors (Ackley, Montero,Carp) but still are mostly considered prospects.  They will need Ichiro and Figgins to get back to their career norms couple with these guys breakout out if they even want a chance at competing in the West.

4.     Oakland Athletics
           
Jemile Weeks, Cliff Pennington, Coco Crisp, Seth Smith, Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Reddick, Kurt Suzuki, Daric Barton and Josh Donaldson.  Unless you are a baseball nut or fantasy dork (like myself) then odds are you haven’t heard of any of them except Coco Crisp because his name is sweet.  This list of prospects are pieces of either what the A’s had traded their stud pitchers for, recently drafted prospects, or bargain “moneyball” guys as Billy Beane still tries to outsmart everyone else.
            Weeks led the team in batting, although it was only 97 games worth, but he still put up a solid .303 average.  However his on base was slacking at just .340, not good enough for a leadoff.  Cliff Pennington has the second spot in the lineup and has the second best returning average: .264.  He also struck out 104 times and only boasted an on-base of .319, which I’m going to guess would end up being the worst for any 2-hole in the league.  Crisp at leads has a plus talent in his speed as he stole 49 bags last year only getting caught 9 times.  His on-base and slugging (.264/.314) last year were extremely low for a guy hitting third, especially in this division.
            Most likely hitting cleanup will be one of the A’s additions, Seth Smith.  Smith was with the Rockies last season and just like Ianettea for the Angels, his statistics were Coors-inflated.  Smith hit 302/367/568 at Coors Field and just .248/.326/.410 away from it.  Now there’s usually a drop in road numbers, but when it’s going from an All-Star to a guy clinging to the 40-man, then they should be noticed.  The most interesting player in this lineup is Cespedes.  He is a 5-tool outfielder supposedly born in 1985 who defected from Cuba this past off season.  Last season in Cuba, he hit .333/.424/.667 with 33 home runs and 99 batted in with just 90 games to play in.  While those numbers seem ridiculously good, you have to remember that the depth of the Cuban league is about equivocal to High-A in the U.S.  He still has much to prove.
            Josh Reddick came over in the Andrew Bailey trade from the Red Sox.  While he came on strong at the end of last season, Reddick is still a career .248/.290/.416 hitter in the bigs and only hit .243/.300.449 in the minors.  His slugging is decent for a guy who really doesn’t hit many home runs (7 in 87 games last year) but those other numbers seem to be the norm for him, much different than what the Moneyball A’s need.  After Reddick will probably be  Kurt Suzuki who peaked in 08 but led the league in games caught back to back years and has tailored off to the paltry .237/.301/.385 last year with only 14 home runs and 44 batted in.  I think Daric Barton will emerge over Brandon Allen at first base, but either way you’re looking at a guy who teetered around .200 at the plate last year.  Josh Donaldson will be forced into the third baseman role since Scott Sizemore is already done for the year.  Donaldson, a catcher at the minor league level, only has 32 big-league at bats to his name with a pitiful .156/.206/.281 and 12 K’s.
            There may be some intriguing players in this lineup like Reddick or Cespedes, the depth and top quality is lacking.  When facing the pitching staffs of TTAAA or Rangers there’s no way that this lineup will be able to score with them.  They will rely on their young pitchers to get them in even competitive games.  You would be hard-pressed to find a worse lineup in the league.

Monday, March 5, 2012

Post-Combine Mock Draft

#
Team
Player
Position
School
Comment
Previous
1
Indianapolis
Andrew Luck
QB
Stanford
As impressive as RG3 was at the Combine, Luck didn't exactly get shown up.  His numbers were almost identical to Cam Newton's, just a couple of inches shorter.
-
2
St. Louis
Robert Griffin III
QB
Baylor
Now that the Rams have publicly said they are shopping the pick, this looks like exactly where Griffin will go.  I'm guessing Cleveland will have the right package with the added first round pick this year.
Justin Blackmon
3
Minnesota
Matt Kalil
OT
USC
Kalil had a good combine and this seems to be as consensus of a pick as number one. 
-
4
Cleveland
Justin Blackmon
WR
Oklahoma State
I'm going to pick the slot, rather than the team because I think Cleveland will jump to get RG3 and the Rams will get Blackmon here.  However, if the Redskins make the trade to number 2 then the Browns will probably go for Claiborne right here.
Robert Griffin III
5
Tampa Bay
Trent Richardson
RB
Alabama
I'm going to leave Richardson here, but if Claiborne can improve upon the 4.5 40 that he ran at the Combine when he runs at his pro day, then the Bucs could take him.
-
6
Washington
Riley Reiff
OT
Iowa
As much as the Colts say they want to keep Manning, I'd still put my money that he ends up in a Redskins' jersey.  With that said, they will need som beef to protect the not-as mobile QB.
-
7
Jacksonville
Michael Floyd
WR
Notre Dame
Floyd solidified himself as a top 10 pick with his excellent combine.  He ran a 4.47 40 (4.39 hand timed) to put to rest his lack of top end speed questions, and he looked very fluid in the ball drills.
-
8
Miami
Morris Claiborne
CB
LSU
After winning the coin flip with Carolina, I think the Dolphins will go best available.  Coples might end up here if Claiborne is gone.
Michael Brockers
9
Carolina
Dontari Poe
DT
Memphis
Poe might have been the only person to have a better combine than Floyd.  The 340+ pound ran a sub-5 40 and benched 225 pounds 34 times.  He can anchor a weak Panthers' Defensive line.
Morris Claiborne
10
Buffalo
Melvin Ingram
DE
South Carolina
Ingram ran a solid 4.7 40 and looked good in the mat drills at the combine.  If he runs a faster time at his pro day then he can hold off Upshaw at this spot.
-
11
Kansas City
Jonathon Martin
OT
Stanford
The Chiefs need to upgrade their tackle position and Martin is the best available.
-
12
Seattle
Courtney Upshaw
DE/OLB
Alabama
Upshaw didn't do much at the Combine, but he benefited by others not performing spectacularly.  The Seahawks need a pass rusher and he fits the bill.
Devon Still
13
Arizona
David DeCastro
OG
Stanford
All signs are still pointing to DeCastro.  The only chance they don’t is if Martin slides to them here.
-
14
Dallas
Dre Kirkpatrick
CB
Alabama
This is still a toss-up between Kirkpatrick and Jenkins.  I'm going to stay with Kirkpatrick since his off-the-field troubles are less troubling.  There has been talk of signing Cortland Finnegan which could lead the Cowboys to trade down for either Glenn or Konz.
-
15
Philadelphia
Luke Kuechly
ILB
Boston College
Kuechly showed up big at the combine, running a 4.58 40 which was 3rd best of all LB's.  Pretty good for a guy whose biggest weakness is his speed.
-
16
New York Jets
Michael Brockers
DT
LSU
If Richardson is still on the board, then that is probably the pick, but I think Rex Ryan will want more depth on the D-Line and Brockers provides good value at 16.
Courtney Upshaw
17
Cincinnati (Oak)
Janoris Jenkins
CB
North Alabama
Jenkins would probably have been a top 5/10 pick if not for the issues that got him kicked off of Florida's team, but this is the Bengals.  Character issues? Sounds like a match.  Either way the Bengals will be happy to have him with Leon Hall most likely out for next season with his knee injury.
-
18
San Diego
Quinton Coples
DE
North Carolina
Coples had a good combine running a 4.78 40 and looking fluid in the cone drills.  The Chargers will be happy if he slides to them at 18.
-
19
Chicago
Cordy Glenn
OG/OT
Georgia
With Wright's sub-par combine performance, I think Chicago will go a different route.  They need to keep Cutler/Forte healthy, and adding versatile lineman Glenn will help with the depth on the front.
Kendall Wright
20
Tennesee
Whitney Mercilus
DE/OLB
Illinois
No Titan had more than 7 sacks last season, and Mercilus had 16 by himself last year.  He had a great combine in both the tests and drills and seems to fit well in the Titans' scheme.
Cordy Glenn
21
Cincinnati
Lamar Miller
RB
Miami
Miller had the fastest 40 of any back at the combine and the Bengals need an upgrade with just Cedric Benson.
Nick Perry
22
Cleveland (Atl)
Fletcher Cox
DE/DT
Mississippi St.
With this pick going to St. Louis in this mock, I'm thinking they will take Cox to shore up the interior of their D-Line.
Mark Barron
23
Detroit
Mark Barron
S
Alabama
This is the team that gave up almost 500 yards to a backup quarterback and caused him to be the most sought after free agent on the market.  They could use secondary help and Barron can provide it.
Lamar Miller
24
Pittsburgh
Dont'a Hightower
ILB
Alabama
The Steelers will be salivating to get the 4.68 speed and raw power that Hightower can bring.
Dontari Poe
25
Denver
Devon Still
DE/DT
Penn State
Just as I had predicted Cox in the last mock, the Broncos will probably be looking DT here and Still is rated higher than Cox on a lot of draft boards.
Fletcher Cox
26
Houston
Stephen Hill
WR
Georgia Tech
Alshon Jeffery did not do himself any favors at the combine by choosing to not participate.  Stephen Hill, on the other hand, went from mid 3rd day to first rounder with an explosive 4.36 40, looking solid in the ball drills, and a huge 6' 4'' frame.
Alshon Jeffery
27
New England (NO)
Nick Perry
DE
USC
New England needs secondary help, but there's not much to take here that they couldn't take at 31.  I think they will go best available with Perry out of USC.
Alfonso Dennard
28
Green Bay
Mike Adams
OT
Ohio St
Like the Patriots, the Packers don't have many holes outside of maybe defensive back, but there aren't any worth taking this high.  I suspect they add offensive line depth with possibly the second best available player in Adams.
-
29
Baltimore
Peter Konz
C
Wisconsin
The Ravens can replace Ben Grubbs at guard while grooming their next center.
Dont'a Hightwoer
30
San Francisco
Kendall Wright
WR
Baylor
As said in the last mock, the 49ers need some wide receiver depth and Wright provides good value this late in the first round.  He also compliments Vernon Davis/Michael Crabtree well as he will work from the slot.
Reuben Randle
31
New England
Stephon Gilmore
CB
South Carolina
This pick will most likely be whichever corner has the best pro day, and I'm thinking Gilmore is going to separate himself.
Whitney Mercilus
32
New York Giants
David Wilson
RB
Virginia Tech
Burfict had a terrible combine, especially in interviews so Coughlin will want to stay away.  There's been talk of letting either Jacobs or Bradshaw go, and if that happens then the defending champions will probably go for Wilson.
Vontaze Burfict