Wednesday, November 27, 2013

NFL Week 13 Picks


So with it being Thanksgiving Weekend, and me having way too much NCAA to catch up with on my Xbox, I’m just going to fly through the weekly picks.  I had a decent week at 8-6, but of the ones I actually wagered on, I picked poorly.  Here’s to a bounce back over some turkey!

Packers +7 over LIONS
Matt Flynn has torn this defense apart before and can do it again.
Raiders +10 over COWBOYS
This line just feels like it has gotten way too high.
RAVENS -2.5 over Steelers
I have no idea about this game, so I’ll take the home team.
Titans +4 over COLTS
Maybe the Colts just are not as good as originally though; we will know after Sunday.
CHIEFS +6 over Broncos
It’s not exactly going to be warm in Kansas City Sunday, and the Chiefs’ defense woes have been overblown.
BROWNS -6.5 over Jaguars
Jacksonville remembers that they should be tanking this week.
PANTHERS -8 over Buccaneers
Tampa Bay also remembers it should be pointed towards the tank squad.
VIKINGS -1 over Bears
This line moved only 2 points once Cutler was confirmed out… does no one realize that Adrian Peterson will go crazy on that awful run defense?
EAGLES -3 over Cardinals
I’ll take Carson Palmer giving it away on the road in the cold.
JETS -2 over Dolphins
The Jets are deceivingly good at home.
Falcons +3.5 over BILLS
No real home field advantage since it is in Toronto, so I think Atlanta keeps it close.
49ERS -7 over Rams
The Rams can run on most teams, but I will guess they cannot against San Francisco.
TEXANS +8 over Patriots
Post-Denver letdown.
Bengals PK over CHARGERS
Sucker bet of the week: how is San Diego not favored, at home, over a struggling Bengals’ team?
REDSKINS +1 over Giants
This line moved towards the Giants after the Redskins’ loss.  Newsflash: New York’s defense is not as good as San Francisco’s.
SEAHAWKS -4 over Saints
I’ll take the 12th man over Drew Brees at night in a cold, windy stadium.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Lions/Packers OVER 39, Raiders +20, Chiefs +16

Others I Like:
49ers +3, Redskins +11, Ravens/Steelers UNDER 52, Falcons +13.5,  Browns +3.5, Packers +17

Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 95-79-6

Friday, November 22, 2013

The Timely Luck Factor and NFL Week 12 Picks

So I think I have come to a revelation this week: winning an NFL game comes down to the same critical factor as fantasy football.  Sadly, the critical factor in question is timely luck.  I consider myself a pretty good fantasy football player; I have six teams and four of them have the most points in the league (by wide margins) and my other two have dealt with a lot of injuries, but are still middle of the pack.  Yet, I know that the odds of me even winning one of these leagues is nothing more than a coin flip, let alone winning all four where I have the best team.  Yes, the team that scores the most points is the best team in fantasy football, where the sole purpose is scoring points.  However, the “best team” wins the league less than half of the time.  Whether it’s bad seeding from tough matchups in the regular season, or having your one bad week during the first round of the playoffs, the best team is completely vulnerable.
            Now in the NFL, it is impossible to qualify a single team as “the best”, because there are so many other factors than gaining points by yards/touchdowns/etc.  Nevertheless, one can single down the league to a group of 5 or so (Bill Simmons uses 8, but I still feel like he did not have the Ravens in that 8 last year, or the Giants either time they won) teams that he or she would then think has the “best” within it.  Yet who would have put Baltimore in their top-5 at the beginning of the playoffs last year?  Hell, after the Super Bowl was over, I still would not have taken the Ravens if the same playoff situation was to start over.  So how did they win?  Rahim Moore making the biggest mistake a defensive back can make, Steven Ridley getting knocked out and fumbling, Colin Kaepernick’s pumpkin hitting midnight (I firmly believe that San Francisco wins the Super Bowl with Alex Smith at quarterback, but getting past Green Bay would have been another story…), and a questionable no-call in the end zone that would have given the 49ers the lead late in the game.  It took an obscene amount of luck at just the exact right time for them to win it all. 
            This is exactly how it is in fantasy football: you don’t have to have your best week points-wise to win, just better than the other guy.  Now the big difference is in fantasy, your opponent has no bearing on whether you score or not (Team Defense against quarterback/running back/receiver withstanding).  As I just referenced though, the Ravens benefitted from having an opponent to get lucky on their own bad misfortunes, just as a fantasy team can benefit from its opponent’s star running back going down in the first quarter.  It is all about the luck of the matchup.
            How did the NFL come to this?  Since the salary cap was instituted and the Cowboys/49ers/Bills dominance of the early to mid-90’s ended, the NFL has become the epitome of parity.  The expansion of teams and therefore talent, as well as the technological advances regarding scouting and injury recovery have made it even more of a level playing field.  The only team to seem to buck the trend was New England, but lest you forget, they won two Super Bowls on long field goals, another playoff game to start the run on a questionable call followed by a field goal in a blizzard, and they were blatantly cheating  for who knows how long.  The same factors that equaled the playing field in real football, have done the same to fantasy.  The internet and thousands of fantasy football experts on it have made getting advanced information easily and quickly accessible.  This means with just 20 minutes worth of browsing, someone equals the research done for hours upon hours of his opponent.
            There is no real answer to getting around the Timely Luck Factor (TLF).  I developed a dynamic value-based drafting system that has led to by far the most complete and high-scoring teams in the five leagues that used snake drafts (the one not in first place saw my top FOUR picks, Steven Jackson, Ray Rice, Randall Cobb, and DeMarco Murray all miss serious time or play hurt in Rice’s case but is now on its way back up).  Still, I doubt any one of the five runs away with a championship.  There is just no way to predict if the team you happen to be playing in the playoffs will have the best week of his season that week.  Just as there is no way to predict if the opposing team in the NFL will bring you timely luck with their own calamity. 
So one can say that the Cowboys are, literally, a few plays away from being 9-1: the offense running a better play at the goal line against KC in a one-point loss, Terrance Williams fumbling at the goal line, the defense stopping Peyton Manning at all in a 3-point loss, and Tyron Smith not holding to stop the clock in a 1-point loss.  Yet, they are also just as easily close to being 1-9: Eli throwing a pick-six late, Dwayne Harris taking advantage of Washington slacking on special teams, Nick Foles throwing an interception in the end zone, and Christian Ponder fumbling in his own end zone.  So eight plays or so, can take a team from 9-1 to 1-9 and anywhere in between.  Who on earth can honestly predict what this team will do next?  This team is the most polarizing and extreme group in the league.  No other team has such a wide range of variability.  They could go 5-11 or 11-5 and win the Super Bowl.  Nothing will surprise me anymore.  I am going to stop trying to find reasoning behind Dallas, and try to enjoy the TLF that is sure to swing back their way soon after losing it for 18 years.

LIONS -6.5 over Buccaneers
The Lions gave one away last week and I think they bounce back strongly.  The only thing making me want to pick Tampa, is I literally had the Add/Drop ready to go, just needed to hit confirm to start Mike Glennon over Matt Ryan as my Russell Wilson replacement.  After last night, I’m sure I made the wrong call and Glennon will go off.
TEXANS-10 over Jaguars
Why would Vegas make the same mistake two weeks in a row about Houston being more than a touchdown favorite?  Because Vegas knows and Vegas always wins.  I think I may have been wrong on every single Jaguars’ game this season though, so do not trust me on this one.
Vikings +4.5 over PACKERS
Both teams got blown out last weekend, so we can’t go theory of opposites.  Christian Ponder on the road seems equal to third stringer at home.  Both teams are relying more on the run, so the cold weather should not have too much effect.  I guess I will pick the best player on the field, Adrian Peterson, especially since I need him to come up big. (I traded for him two weeks ago and he has not done much since.  If I don’t win a 12-team league in which I have AP, Megatron, Forte, Reggie Bush and a choice of Andre Brown, Josh Gordon or T.Y. Hilton, then I might give up on Fantasy)
Chargers +5 over CHIEFS
Vegas has not given the Chiefs any respect, and even at home against a suddenly free-falling Chargers team they get put in the Vegas zone at 5.  Just as the Denver game was screaming at you to take KC, this one seems to be doing the same.  With that said, I will do the same and go against them since it worked out last week.
DOLPHINS +4.5 over Panthers
It’s a short week for Carolina, combined with travel and a lot of attention surrounding the controversial end of last week.  All of that, plus with Tampa on deck at home next week, if Carolina wins they would probably end up with an 8-game winning streak going into New Orleans.  This team does not seem good enough to win 8 in a row.  I can’t find an exact stat, but I feel like there can’t be that many of those in NFL history.  Upset of the week in a bounce back. 
BROWNS -2 over Steelers
Opposite theory is strongly in play here, and it almost worries me that Vegas is on to it by making Cleveland the favorite.  The Steelers looked good last week facing a terrible secondary.  Now, Antonio Brown will have the best corner in the league on him, Joe Haden.  Matthew Berry had the stat that: “Haden has now faced A.J. Green (twice), Torrey Smith (twice), Calvin Johnson and Jordy Nelson. In those six games, those wideouts averaged 48 yards and caught only one touchdown.”  Quite impressive.
RAMS -1 over Bears
Zac Stacy may be the real deal and I may be regretting putting him in a package to get AP.  St. Louis’ defense is really good as well.  I also am not buying the bears, who are 3-4 in their last seven with wins over Green Bay when Rodgers got hurt, a weird win in OT over a struggling Baltimore team, and less than a touchdown at home over the Giants.  Chicago just might not be that good.
Jets +3.5 over RAVENS
As I was saying, Baltimore is really struggling, even with Ray Rice going.  Joe Flacco is playing like a guy who has over $100 million guaranteed with no fire, and the defense is a shell of last year’s.  Geno Smith on the road sounds terrible but I am too lazy to go back and change it.
RAIDERS -1 over Titans
Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road sounds almost as bad as Geno Smith on the road, and I still think Terrelle Pryor has got something.  Chris Johnson would have his best week of the year last week when I needed a win against him, and I doubt he really builds on his performance.
CARDINALS -2.5 over Colts
The quietest 6-4 team ever is getting the respect it deserves from Vegas.  In my preseason preview I knew I should have picked them as my sleeper wild card team, but couldn’t find the balls to pull the trigger.  If Carson Palmer takes care of the ball, they win this game, plain and simple.  Their defense will get them a lead early, and only the dreaded Palmer TAINT will get Indy back in it.
Cowboys +3 over GIANTS
Almost every week I have picked against the Cowboys, even though I do not believe it is the right choice.  This has not been good for my totals as they are the best team in the league against the number.  After my revelation I am going to try and just enjoy my ‘Boys and pick it as I see it.  Eli sucks, Romo is awesome.  So I take the Cowboys for the win.
PATRIOTS +3 over Broncos
Peyton Manning is the greatest football player ever in my mind, but Bill Belicheat cheats.  I also don’t like the shorter week after a tough prime time game in the cold, back out in the cold at night, for Peyton’s older arm. 
REDSKINS +6 over 49ers
San Francisco has back to back long road trips, and I still am the first person that started the now-getting-crowded, “Collin Kaepernick is over-rated” bandwagon.  The 49ers should not be giving almost a touchdown on the road to anyone.  Washington does have the worst pass-defense in the league, but San Francisco’s passing offense is even worse in comparison.
10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Chiefs/Chargers UNDER 53, Broncos/Patriots OVER 42, Patriots +13
Others I Like:
Giants +7, Giants/Cowboys OVER 33.5, Lions +3.5, Vikings +14.5, Colts +12.5, Texans PK
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 9-5-1Overall: 88-73-6

Friday, November 15, 2013

NFL Week 11 Picks

Falcons -1 over BUCCANEERS
With Bobby Rainey and Brian Leonard now starting at running back behind quarterback Mike Glennon, I just don’t see how anyone can pick this Tampa team to beat a team that is not in complete locker room disarray.  Roddy White comes back with a vengeance. 
BILLS -1 over Jets
E.J. Manuel should be coming back this week, and the Bills should be able to run on New York.  Rex Ryan can only hide Geno Smith’s limitations so much until his mistakes cause a Jets’ defeat.
STEELERS +3 over Lions
Just like the Giants, I (as well as everyone else, including fans of the teams) had these two left for dead too soon.  Now?  Both are two wins away from being tied for the division lead.  The world is not kind enough for the Steelers to lose this game.
EAGLES -4 over Redskins
Is Nick Foles for real?  I keep wanting to think that he is a product of going off in two games against two terrible teams (Raiders and Bucs) and getting very fortuitous against a decent team without the best player in the league.  I’ll ride him for one more week because I think RG3 has gotten found out as a one-hit wonder.
DOLPHINS +2 over Chargers
Theory of Opposites with Miami.  They looked atrocious last week against Tampa, but have now had a full week with their new lineman to work out the kinks.  It just seems like a complete sucker bet on the Chargers, so Miami rallies around their coach and gets the win.
Ravens +3.5 over BEARS
Josh McCown’s presence has actually pushed this line a point higher for the Bears.  LaDarius Webb hangs with Brandon Marshall and the Ravens get after McCown to cover.
Browns +6 over BENGALS
No Leon Hall, no Geno Atkins, Andy Dalton has turned into the spare we all thought he would be, and Marvin Jones’ pumpkin hit midnight.  Jason Campbell is surprisingly efficient since taking over, and Cleveland can smell the playoffs.  Upset of the week to make it four in a row.
Raiders +7 over TEXANS
This was the hardest game to pick of the week, especially because two major books had the number at 7, while one had it at Raiders -1.5.  Something might be amiss as I am writing this, so combine that with the fact that I do not think these two teams are that different and I’ll take the points.
JAGUARS +7.5 over Cardinals
Going against my philosophy that I do not think the Jags will win, but I feel even less certain that Arizona can blow anyone out.  Carson Palmer throws too many interceptions to sustain a big lead and Jacksonville is forgetting their goal of the number-one pick.
BRONCOS -8 over Chiefs
Do you know what that 8-number is begging you to do?  Get more than a touchdown with a 9-0 team?  Sucker-bet.  The Chiefs will try to bring the pressure on a gimpy Manning, but don’t you think he knows that?  Wes Welker and Julius Thomas have gigantic days as they catch short hot routes over the middle and turn them into big gains.
Vikings +13 over SEAHAWKS
As good as the Seattle pass defense is, the rush defense has been rather paltry.  Adrian Peterson should have a field day and keep this game within two touchdowns.
49ers +3.5 over SAINTS
People are over-rating the Saints’ big win Sunday, and under-rating how good the Panthers were in destroying San Francisco.  Harbaugh brings his team back with a vengeance and lost in Sunday night’s massacre was the Cowboys ran the ball somewhat well.  Gore and Kaepernick should have big days on the ground.
Packers +6 over GIANTS
Scott Tolzien looked surprisingly competent last week with really good arm strength.  A week of first team reps will do him well and Eli will throw a couple more league leading interceptions.  This may be more of a hope that Dallas does not play New York with first place on the line. Gulp.
PANTHERS -2.5 over Patriots
You can run on the Patriots without Vince Wilfork in the middle, and running is what this Carolina team does best.  With Jonathan Stewart back, the Panthers have four legitimate rushing options to grind out long drives and keep Brady off the field.  Carolina keeps rolling.

Bonus College Parlay:
Baylor -27 over Tech; Baylor/Tech OVER 86
Trust me.  Seriously, just trust me.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Broncos +2, Eagles/Redskins OVER 34, Bills +9

Others I Like:
Broncos/Chiefs UNDER 61, Packers +16, Vikings +23, Browns +16, Panthers +7.5, Falcons +9

This Week: 0-0-1
Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 79-68-5

Sunday, November 10, 2013

NFL Week 10 Picks


I think I am finding my groove with the season after a superb week to put me in a profit after the vig.  My upset of the week paid off big with the Jets manhandling the Saints offense.  Hopefully I can continue my winning ways using two different methods: guessing the lines and going against the consensus. I guess the lines before the come out to find out where I automatically see value.  I then look at the values compared to different levels of public consensus on games to see where Vegas is getting their money at.  It helps me see the sucker bets each week.  Once again, the home dog on Thursday night pays off.

Jaguars +14 over TITANS
The Jags could go 0-16 or 1-15, but they are not finishing with that terrible record against the number.  Right now, they are at 1-7, so I think they will start keeping it close.
PACKERS +1 over Eagles
Can Nick Foles throw for seven touchdowns again?  I think the Pack rallies around their fallen leader, and Eddie Lacy/James Starks give Chip Kelly a taste of his own running medicine.
Bills +3 over STEELERS
The Bills are a decent football team and E.J. Manuel comes back strong against a depleted Pittsburgh defense. 
Raiders +7.5 over GIANTS
I think Oakland bounces back against the hapless Giants.  Mini rant: both Eli Manning and Ben Rapelsberger are in danger of starting 2-7.  I dare someone to try and argue that either one of the teams around the two spare quarterbacks is any worse than the teams Romo has had to deal with, yet Tony’s worst season gets you a .500-record.  This is where ignorance on quarterback play says “well what about rings?”  Well what about the teams they had with them?  Yeah, Ben and Eli can win a Super Bowl having one of the best defenses in the league as well as having wide receivers bail them out with ridiculously huge catches.  I would take Romo over either one of them and the stats back it up.  Teams win Super Bowls, not single quarterbacks.
Rams +10 over COLTS
I feel like the Colts play close games every week and just let Andrew Luck win it in the end.  I think Luck is easily second in the MVP race to Peyton, and gaining ground every week.  The kid is a stud and is proving the early-doubters how much better he is than RG3.
FALCONS +4.5 over Seahawks
The public consensus is on Seattle big time, yet the line has moved towards Atlanta all week.  You know what that means?  The sucker bet of the week.  Atlanta has looked awful, but as a home dog against a Seattle team that has not exactly been blowing people out. 
RAVENS +1 over Bengals
I’m liking the home dogs this week, and the Bengals have big issues on defense.  Geno Atkins’ absence will be huge, so Ray Rice fantasy owners better not give up on him just yet. 
BEARS -1 over Lions
Jay Cutler comes back and swings the line 4 points.  This game is a complete toss-up in that I guessed the line perfectly, finding no value, and the public consensus came in with a lot of action before Cutler announced his plans to start.  I think I’ll take Chicago even though they are on a short week.
Panthers +7 over 49ERS
The two hottest teams outside of Kansas City are clashing with very similar styles.  Carolina’s defense has looked like the best in the league, however it has been against very sub-par competition.  Kaepernick has looked very below average after his fluky first game.  The league has figured him out, and Cam Newton shows who the best dual threat quarterback is in my upset of the week.
CARDINALS -2.5 over Texans
Case Keenum is looking like a definite upgrade at quarterback, but no Foster and a hobbled Tate is going to make Houston one-dimensional.  Arizona has a stout defense, and Patrick Peterson will take on Andre Johnson who will not have a 50-point fantasy performance again (Bitterness, yes).
CHARGERS +7 over Broncos
This will be very similar to the Dallas game, in which Peyton takes Denver on the road against another high-powered offense with a quarterback playing at the top of the league.  It feels like a massive shootout, so I will take the touchdown of value on the home dog.
SAINTS -6.5 over Cowboys
Everyone knows the stats already about the 400-yard passers, and how terrible the defense has been.  What I’m most worried about is how Dallas will defense Jimmy Graham and (if he plays) Darren Sproles.  Antonio Gates and Danny Woodhead are like off-brand versions of their Saints’ counterparts, and the latter two destroyed the Kiffin Cover-2.  Bruce Carter has not stepped up this season, and this situation will not help him.
Dolphins -2.5 over BUCCANEERS
Can Tampa Bay out-suck the Jaguars and somehow steal the number one pick?  I think that if they finish with the same record, Tampa would have the worse schedule strength.  An interesting development as either team needs a quarterback as well as a pass rusher.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Broncos/Chargers OVER 47, Cardinals +12.5, Panthers +17

Others I Like:
Cowboys/Saints OVER 43, Saints +3.5, Dolphins/Buccaneers UNDER 53, Chargers +17, Ravens +11, Bears +9

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 9-3-1
Overall: 72-62-4

Saturday, November 2, 2013

NFL Week 9 Picks


I have to do some quick picks this week since I was in my boy Corey’s wedding this weekend.

DOLPHINS +2.5 over Bengals
I’ve been on the home dog all season.
PANTHERS -7 over Falcons
Atlanta is on a serious downswing and I do not think they lines have caught up yet.
Vikings +10.5 over COWBOYS
The Cowboys are now 7-1 against the number, so regression is due.
Jets +6 over SAINTS
In a battle of the Ryan brothers, I think Rex gets the W.
RAMS +3 over Titans
The Rams might have figured something out on defense last week.
BILLS +3.5 over Chiefs
Kansas City will lose at some point and has not been covering their spreads.
REDSKINS -1 over Chargers
West coast team, traveling cross-country for a noon start.
Eagles +3 over RAIDERS
The line seems like it would be too easy of an Oakland pick, causing me to think it ‘s the sucker bet of the week.
Buccaneers +17 over SEAHAWKS
The Seattle offense needs some work.
BROWNS +3 over Ravens
Jason Campbell might be deceivingly decent for this setup of a Browns team.
Steelers +7 over PATRIOTS
Pittsburgh might be catching stride to make a crazy playoff push.
TEXANS +3 over Colts
Another line that seems just too easy so I am going the opposite way.
Bears +11 over PACKERS
I have no idea why I am picking against Aaron Rodgers on Monday night, other that the national consensus telling me to do otherwise.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Packers -1, Vikings +20.5, Chiefs/Bills UNDER 53

Others I Like:
Ravens/Browns UNDER 53, Steelers +17, Packers/Bears OVER 38, Seahawks -7, Rams +13, Panthers +3

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 6-7
Overall: 63-59-3