Final Four Preview

            I hate the BCS.  I am very outspoken about how much I hate it.  The recent progression towards at least a plus-one is a good start to fixing college football.  College basketball is widely accepted as not needing to be fixed.  Does it determine the best team?  Not exactly, I think a 16 or 32-team tournament with best of 3 series’ would accomplish that better.  But it still establishes the most deserving team by beating 6 (or 7) of the other best 68 teams in a matter of about 16 days with teams getting a fair shot rather than computers or old and biased writers/coaches determining things.

            Recently I heard someone defending the BCS “National Championship” game as being just as legitimate as the Final Four this year: both matchups are rematches from earlier in the season and the title game could be a rematch as well.  The big difference is the BCS’ slogan is that “Every Game Matters” so there should not be any rematches.  College Basketball has no such slogan, as teams play around forty games a season.   It’s supposed to be that the first matchup between LSU/Bama was its own mini-playoff game to see who gets to go on to the championship.  Basketball has these early season matchups as to better gauge each team for seeding and tournament purposes.  When it comes down to it, LSU and Alabama played their first game as if they lost then their season was over, while the Final Four teams did not.  Otherwise Jared Sullinger would have played against Kansas.  To me, it only adds intrigue to the final 3 games of the college basketball season.

Midwest #2 Kansas vs. East #2 Ohio State

First Matchup: @Kansas 78  --  Ohio State 67

            Although the Buckeyes’ best player did not play in the first game between these two teams, plenty can still be learned from that matchup at Allen Fieldhouse. 

Outside:

            Aaron Craft is one of the most pesky perimeter defenders in the nation, but he also has a penchant for fouling too much.  He fouled out in the Buckeyes’ Elite Eight game as well as the first matchup against the Jayhawks.  Thad Matta had put Craft on Tyshawn Taylor for the majority of the first game which caused the foul trouble.  I’d guess that Matta will start Craft off of Taylor, but should he be forced to switch him back then Taylor will become super aggressive to get Craft off the court.  Craft is about as valuable to the Ohio State offense as Kendall Marshall was to the North Carolina offense.  If he is off of the floor then the Buckeyes’ become disjointed and lack decent motion and ball movement.

            The sudden emergence of Jayhawk wing Elijah Johnson has given Kansas the third scorer it was hoping to find at the beginning of the season.  Over the last six games between the Big XII and NCAA tournaments, Johnson is averaging 16 points (7 higher than his season average) and is 15 for 33 from beyond the arc (45%).  Also notable is the first time these teams played, he scored 15 points and was 5 of 7 from deep.  His backcourt companion Tyshawn Taylor finally busted out of his slump in the Elite Eight.  With Marshall out, Taylor regained his confidence scoring 22 with 6 rebounds and 5 assists.  I expect him to keep that assurance going knowing that the last time these teams played he dished out thirteen assists.  My one worry is his reliance on shooting threes, as he has missed his last 19 attempts and has not made one in the NCAA Tourney.  Should he stay assertive and take it inside more, he becomes exponentially more efficient, as he shot 10 of 14 from 2’s in the last round.  Like I said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Craft starts on Johnson to try and avoid fouls, but between Johnson and Taylor the Buckeyes will have to pick their poison.

            I definitely have to give the perimeter edge to Kansas with the emergence of Elijah Johnson.  The kid is cold-blooded and single handedly brought them back against Purdue.  Both he and Taylor are playing with a lot of poise and swagger which is quite dangerous for the Buckeyes.  Should Craft get into foul trouble, the inside play might not even matter as the Kansas guards run amok. 

Inside:

            This game will feature the first matchup between the best low post players in college basketball in Thomas Robinson and Jared Sullinger.  Sullinger missed the first game with back spasms and Robinson had one of the more efficient games of his career scoring 21 points on just 9 shots and pulling down 7 rebounds.  He has also been a terror inside for the tournament averaging 16 points and almost 13 rebounds a game as his draft stock soars.  Sullinger hasn’t been bad in the tournament either, going for 18 and 8 a game.  I’d have to give the edge to Robinson so far though, as he has had to deal with the bigs from North Carolina and N.C. State which are a little more menacing than a Fab Melo-less Syracuse.

            The other front court players could end up deciding this game with the stars possibly canceling each other out.  Jeff Withey of Kansas was not asked for much the first time these teams played, as he only had one shot attempt and two points, but he has stepped up his game in the tournament, especially against the Tar Heels when he put up a tough 15 point and 8 rebound performance.  Ohio State’s William Buford and Deshaun Thomas give the edge in athleticism at the forward position to the Buckeyes.  Buford struggled in the first meeting, going 8 for 23 from the floor.  He had a decent Elite Eight with 13 and 9 after no showing in the sweet sixteen.  Deshaun Thomas, on the other hand, has the Buckeyes’ most valuable player in the tournament.  He’s averaging 22 points and 9 rebounds a game, including a huge 31 and 12 in their victory over Syracuse.  I think Thomas will make the difference at the forward position.

            Of the two top-ten draft picks, I think Robinson is better and will play better than Sullinger.  Withey and Buford will probably be a wash, but the Jayhawks have no answer for Deshaun Thomas.  For that reason alone, I give the slight edge to Ohio State’s front court.

Overall:

            I think this might be the most competitive game of this otherwise bland tournament.  These teams match up very well with each other and there is also plenty of NBA star power on the floor.  The first meeting’s final should not be factored in that much, since it was at Kansas and Sullinger did not play.  Kansas has the better back court, while Ohio State has the better front court.  Kansas has the best player on the floor but Ohio State has slightly more depth.  I think the game will come down to Elijah Johnson and Deshaun Thomas.  If Aaron Craft stays out of foul trouble, then whoever scores more of those two will help their team win.  With that said, I’m going to have to go with Ohio State (even though I need Kansas to win it all for my bracket pool) with a small footnote of as long as Craft plays 35 minutes plus.

South #1 Kentucky vs. West #4 Louisville

First Meeting: @Kentucky 69 – Louisville 62

Rick Pitino against the team that he took to the promised land in one of the more heated rivalries in all of college sports: it could get ugly though.

Outside:

There’s going to be a prevalent theme with breaking down Kentucky: every guy that is in the rotation will probably make an NBA team.  Although their strength is their dominant front court, the Wildcats’ perimeter players are not exactly a weakness.  To put how deep this Kentucky team is, they have probably the top two players for the next NBA Draft (Davis/Kidd-Gilchrist) along with two other potential first rounders (Jones/Teague) but the leading scorer in the NCAA Tournament so far is: Doron Lamb with 17 points a game (yet he hasn’t led the team in a single game).  He is also shooting 55% from beyond the arc.  This, coupled with Marquis Teague’s 15 points, 3 rebounds and 5 assists a game forms quite the formidable back court.  Toss in senior Darius Miller off the bench with his 13 and 4 and this is a tough set of guards.

Louisville’s heart and soul lie with diminutive point guard Peyton Siva.  His numbers (9 points, 7 assists in the tournament) don’t show how he navigates the court and has helped the underachieving Cardinals win the Big East tournament as well as reach the Final Four.  This is just not a good matchup for Siva though.  The first meeting saw Siva go 2 for 13 from the field and have 7 turnovers.  His back court starting mate is Chris Smith, who is the team’s defender and only chips in about 7 a game.  The perimeter player that Louisville will rely on for scoring is guard Russ Smith, their sixth man.  In the first meeting with the Wildcats, Smith went off for 30 points and 5 rebounds, including three 3-pointers.  If the Cardinals want any change at beating Kentucky, Smith will have to continue his 70% 3-point shooting in the tournament and probably outscore himself from the first game.

            The length and athleticism of Teague, Lamb and Miller are just too much for the smaller Louisville guards.  It will take some absolutely lights out shooting by Smith with the best game of Siva’s life to even contend with Kentucky.  I don’t see that happening, so I give a big edge to the Wildcats.

Inside:

            Chane Behanan has had a solid tournament with 14 points and 8 rebounds a game for Louisville, but he has yet to face Anthony Davis.  In the first matchup, Davis had 6 blocks to go with his 18 points/10 rebounds and many of those swats were of Behanan’s shots.  As noted before, the Wildcats get away with anything they want around the rim, so it is going to be a tough go of it for Behanan.  Gorgui Diengi had a solid game defending Terrance Jones in the first game, holding him to 1 of 9 shooting.  I feel like Jones will take that to heart and come out big and assert himself on the block and around the rim.  He still had 11 rebounds in that game, and is averaging 9 a game in the tournament with his 14 points.

            The place where this game could get ugly is at the small forward spot.  Michael Kidd-Gilchrist might be the most talented and athletic player in the nation.  He put on a show against Louisville and Kyle Kuric the first time, scoring 24 points and pulling down 19 rebounds, all while holding Kuric, a double digit scorer, to just 2 points.  If Kidd-Gilchrist gets going in transition off of defensive plays and builds up the momentum for Kentucky’s fast-break game, then this game could get out of hand.  Either way there is a huge advantage in the post for the Wildcats.

Overall:

            I almost just wrote: “Kentucky has Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist, Jones, Lamb, Teague, and Miller, and Louisville does not” for a preview of this game.  That’s all you really need to know.  Even if one of the big guys gets in foul trouble, Kyle Wiltjer would be a starter for Louisville.  The Wildcats have all six main rotation guys averaging over 13 points a game in the tournament with four of them averaging better than 15.  The balance, passing abilities, unselfishness, athleticism and overall swagger of Kentucky will beat down Louisville.  The Cardinals kept it close the first game while the team of young Kentucky guys was still getting used to playing together, but this will be the Wildcats in a blow out.