Thursday, August 28, 2014

College Football Preview: Post-Season Predictions

BIG TEN
EAST
Michigan State 11-1
Ohio State 10-2
X-Penn State 9-3
Michigan 8-4
Maryland 5-7
Indiana 5-7
Rutgers 4-8

WEST
Iowa 11-1
Wisconsin 10-2
Nebraska 7-5
Northwestern 7-5
Minnesota 5-7
Illinois 5-7
Purdue 3-9

Championship: Michigan State over Iowa
            With the Braxton Miller news I do not think that it will change the overall record much for the Buckeyes, but I definitely will flip them and the Spartans.  J.T. Barrett is a Texas kid that has played in a system like Urban Meyer’s since he was at Wichita Falls Rider.  He will definitely be the freshman of the year, but I do not think he can get Ohio State past Michigan State.  I would give the Hawkeyes more of a chance against the Spartans, but still like Michigan State to take the conference.

Offensive Player of the Year: Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
            Another pick that is changed by the Miller decision, Gordon will be the best offensive player in a league completely devoid of offensive superstars.  This pick should probably be Brandon Schreff since he is the best overall player in the league, but I doubt an offensive lineman can win the award.  Connor Cook and Jeremy Langford from Michigan State should put up some stats, but I think that the Spartans will be in a lot of blowouts, decreasing their overall output.  Gordon might sneak himself into the Heisman conversation with a full workload.

Defensive Player of the Year: Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State
            This defense has even more pressure now and I think Bosa steps up and leads the league in sacks.  Because of the depth on the Buckeyes’ defensive line, Bosa will not face many double teams and he will eat up opposing offensive lineman whether he’s on the outside or inside at DT.

PAC-12
NORTH
Oregon 11-1
Washington 10-3
Stanford 8-4
Oregon State 8-4
Washington State 6-6
California 2-10

SOUTH
UCLA 11-1
USC 10-2
Arizona State 7-5
Arizona 7-5
Utah 4-8
Colorado 3-9

Championship: Oregon over UCLA
            UCLA seems like an even safer bet with the drama going on down the highway with the Trojans, and the more I look at the Ducks the more I think they might run the table.  With a healthy Mariota, they will be a very hard team to catch on a bad day. 

Offensive Player of the Year: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
            As I just said, I think Mariota is due for a monster year.  I think he will seriously challenge a zero-interception season, especially since he will only face the best corner in the league in practice, and the second best corner is jumping off of balconies instead of in passing lanes. 

Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Jack, LB, UCLA
            Oregon’s Ifo Ekpre-Olomu and USC’s Leonard Williams are better NFL prospects and players at this point, but I think QB’s avoid Ekpre-Olomu and opposing O-lines double/triple-team Williams giving Jack the most opportunity.  Mora has said that Jack will focus on defense and if he does I think he terrorizes other offenses.


ACC
ATLANTIC
Florida State 12-0
Clemson 9-3
Louisville 9-3
Syracuse 6-6
North Carolina State 6-6
Boston College 4-8
Wake Forest 4-8

COASTAL
Duke 10-2
North Carolina 9-3
Virginia Tech 9-3
Miami 9-3
Pittsburgh 7-5
Georgia Tech 7-5
Virginia 2-10

Championship: Florida State over Duke
            I am probably buying too much into Duke’s surprising run last year, but I just really want Duke to be good again.  It was almost comical to see the Blue Devils with 10 wins.  They will definitely get trounced by the Seminoles, but at least they get there, right?  I mean, what if Winston, Edwards, Greene, Williams X 2, and Ramsey all get suspended for the game? Oh yeah, Florida State’s backups could probably be a top-25 team.

Offensive Player of the Year: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
I think the numbers will be even better.  I mean, Jimbo Fisher put up EIGHTY on someone last year, what’s to stop him from trying to get a 2-time Heisman winner?  Imagine the sway that would have with recruits.

Defensive Player of the Year: Mario Edwards, DE, Florida State
Another Texas kid not playing for a Texas school, the Denton Ryan product has as much talent as any defensive player in the nation.  He is legitimately in the same tier as Jadaveon Clowney (albeit at the bottom while Clowney is at the top).  I could see him threatening 20 sacks.

SEC
WEST
Alabama 11-1
LSU 11-1
Auburn 10-2
Mississippi 8-4
Mississippi State 8-4
Texas A&M 7-5
Arkansas 3-9

EAST
South Carolina 11-1
Georgia 10-2
Missouri 8-4
Florida 7-5
Vanderbilt 6-6
Tennessee 4-8
Kentucky 3-9

Championship: Alabama over South Carolina
            This pick could blow up in my face if the Aggies pull the upset tonight, but I just feel like this could be Spurrier’s year… at least until he has to face Alabama.  You never know though, whoever starts at QB for the Tide could not be ready for the big games and Ol’ Ball Coach could surprise everyone one more time.  I wouldn’t bet it on it, but I would like to see it.

Offensive Player of the Year: Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU and Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
            I know, kind of a cop-out, but I just couldn’t leave either of them out.  If I had to bet on one, it would be Gurley, but I truly believe that Fournette is the real deal and will get some Heisman-buzz.

Defensive Player of the Year: Landon Collins, S, Alabama
            Collins will get plenty of opportunity as Alabama will control the ball with its ground game and teams will have to throw to catch up.  The junior safety was all over the field last year and is now the unquestioned leader on the defense.

BIG XII
Oklahoma 10-2
Baylor 10-2
Kanas State 8-4
Texas 8-4
Oklahoma State 7-5
Texas Tech 7-5
TCU 7-5
West Virginia 3-9
Kansas 3-9
Iowa State 3-9

Champion: Oklahoma
            With no championship game, the de facto champion will be crowned at the OU/Baylor game.  I don’t think either will get through unscathed and since the game is in Norman I lean towards the Sooners. 

Offensive Player of the Year: Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor
            This is about as big of a lock as any other post-season prediction.  Petty is as efficient as they come at QB, and he is in the most efficient system ever created for mass amounts of yards.  Davis Webb should be right on his heels as far as passing yards, but that will be because Tech will be behind a lot more.

Defensive Player of the year: Sam Carter, SS, TCU
            I really wanted to be a homer and take Kenny Williams, the converted RB playing outside linebacker for the Red Raiders, but I think Carter continues his ball hawking in the league’s best defense. 

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
SEMIFINALS
#1 Florida State over #4 Michigan State
The fourth spot was definitely Ohio State’s before the Braxton Miller injury.  Now, I would not be surprised if LSU sneaks in ahead of the Spartans.  Either way, I think Florida State has too much offense for those two defenses.
#3 Oregon over #2 Alabama
The matchup that has somehow always eluded us: the best offensive team of the past decade against the best defensive team.  Manti Te’o’s fake girlfriend stole this game from us a few years ago (yes, I know, I was fooled by him too) but we finally get it as a National Semifinal.  I think ‘Bama’s defense will slow down the Ducks somewhat, but it will be the Crimson Tide’s offense not able to do much against an under-rated Oregon defense that leads the Pac-12 Champs to the Final.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
#3 Oregon over #1 Florida State
            It is just too hard to repeat now, especially with a quarterback who has been known to be distracted with off the field issues.  Marcus Mariota will look to cement himself as the top quarterback in the draft and this would be the first game that the Seminoles face such a high-tempo offense.  Also, would it not be fitting that in the first year of a 4-team tournament that the #3 team takes it down?

AWARDS
Doak Walker: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
Fournette and Gordon should be right on his heels, but it is Gurley’s to lose if he stays healthy.
Fred Biletnikoff: Antwan Goodley, WR, Baylor
This could be a runaway and Goodley could pass the 2,000-yard mark.
Jim Thorpe: Landon Collins, S, Alabama
This one is a little tougher because you never know who opposing quarterbacks just completely avoid.  Carter, Ekpre-Olomu, and any of the Seminoles’ DB’s could jump into the conversation.
Davey O’Brien: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
This seems like a four-horse race between Mariota, Winston, Hundley and Petty.  I think Petty gets overlooked as a system quarterback, and Mariota ends up with the best numbers of the other three.

Heisman:
5. Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
4. Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
3. Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA
2. Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
1. Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

            Like I said earlier, Mariota is a man on a mission.  The kid is 6’4’’, 219 pounds, and has thrown for 63 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions in the first two seasons as a starter.  When you factor in that he has almost 1,500 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns with his breakaway speed, what you have is Colin Kaepernick with a much better arm.  I’m pushing all-in with Mariota and the Ducks to show that it wasn’t just Chip Kelly, but the system in place.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

College Football Preview: Big XII

The Not-So Doormats-The Big XII definitely has the highest floor of any of the major conferences, as these one of these teams gets a big upset every year.

West Virginia Mountaineers, 3-9
Kansas Jayhawks, 3-9
Iowa State Cyclones, 3-9

            Iowa State has a sneaky challenging non-conference schedule this season.  North Dakota State has won the past three FCS National Titles and could beat a number of Big-5 conference teams (including Kansas State last season).  Iowa is one of my sleeper picks to make a run this year.  With that said, I think Paul Rhoads’ seat gets pretty hot.  He will need Sam Richardson to build on the progress he showed last season at quarterback before getting hurt.  Richardson had a string of solid games including a 262-yard passing and 83-yard rushing day against the Longhorns.  He will have the best TE in the conference to throw to in E.J. Bibbs.  The big bodied TE will be an under-rated deep threat with Quenton Bundrage and freshman Allen Lazard drawing the opposing safeties out wide.  The defense will also have to be much better after giving up 36 points a game last season, good for 110th in the country.  The Cyclones gave up 40+ points in six of their last eight games, including 71 to Baylor.  I just do not see Iowa State getting one of their usual upsets to save Rhoads his job, and this will be his last year in Ames.
Kansas might not be the worst team in the league for the first time since 2008.  The Jayhawks ended their 34-game conference-losing streak with a win over West Virginia last year.  Quarterback Montell Cozart made his first career start in that game, and while his totals were unglamorous he managed to not turn the ball over.  In fact, in his six games of action Cozart only threw two interceptions.  That will be huge for a team that returns nine starters on defense, including the conference’s leading returning tackler Ben Heeney.  The senior has totaled 200 tackles over the past two seasons.  Kansas has a suddenly difficult non-conference at Duke and has to travel to West Virginia.  If Cozart can take care of the ball as well as last season while also pushing it downfield a little more, this defense could lead the Jayhawks to a few more upsets than planned.
West Virginia continues the trend of the demanding non-conference schedule with Alabama and Maryland.  In fact, all but one of the Big XII teams plays at least one other power conference team, and actually have more games against such teams than the SEC with four less total teams.  Former Florida State QB Clint Trickett goes into the season as the starter for the Mountaineers, after throwing for over 225 yards in all but one of the games he played extensively.  He will have to take on a more shouldering load of the offense without the skill position stars that Mountaineer fans have become accustomed to.  The second base shutdown corner in the league, Daryl Worley, will lead West Virginia’s defense.  Worley only had one interception as a true freshman last year, but that was mostly because opposing teams stayed away from his side.  The 6’1’’ Philly-kid has the size and speed to be a future NFL draft pick.  What hurts WVU is the conference schedule.  Of the other teams that West Virginia really has a chance to beat, they have to play all of the on the road except Kansas.


The Evenly Matched Middle-All of the rest of the conference will be ranked at one point and have to play every other team, so the middle-class ends up bunched together.

Kansas State Wildcats, 8-4
Texas Longhorns, 8-4
Oklahoma State Cowboys, 7-5
Texas Tech Red Raiders, 7-5
TCU Horned Frogs, 7-5

            TCU has had quite an off-season with several off the field issues including the loss of their best player, Devonte Fields.  With Fields playing at an FCS school preparing for the draft, what would have been the best defense in the league loses its key pass rusher.  The Frogs still have depth up front with Chucky Hunter and Davion Pierson at DT.  Hunter was All-Big XII last season and will have to control the line of scrimmage as well as rush the passer without Fields.  Strong Safety Sam Carter has more returning interceptions than any other player in the conference with nine.  Carter will need to lead the secondary now that first-round pick Jason Verrett is gone.  On offense, the quarterback position is s till up in the air with returner Trevone Boykin battling Texas A&M transfer Matt Joeckel.  Joeckel showed signs of skill last season in his limited time with the Aggies, and Boykin can bring more value to the team at receiver.  If Joeckel does start he would be one of only seven probable seniors, so the Frogs could make a jump next season. 
            Texas Tech used three different quarterbacks last season (including two true freshmen) yet still was second in the country in passing yards per game.  With Baker Mayfield becoming a permanent backup at Oklahoma and Michael Brewer surprisingly winning the starting job for Virginia Tech, sophomore Davis Webb is the unquestioned leader of the air raid (2,718 yards, 20 TD, 9 INT).  In every game that Webb started and finished last season, he had at least 385 yards passing, with all but one clearing the 400-yard barrier.  Leading receiving options Jace Amaro and Eric Ward are gone, but starters Bardley Marquez and Jakeem Grant bring possession and big play ability to the Red Raider offense.  I expect Reginald Davis (one of the highest touted recruits in recent memory for Tech) to really take a step up this season.  DeAndre Washington takes over as the lead back for Kenny Williams who will start at outside linebacker.   Up front, Le’Raven Clark moves inside to guard where he projects to be picked in the draft next spring.  Juco transfers have bolstered the defensive line, and there is still slim hope that former 5-star recruit Mike Mitchell gains eligibility.  Like TCU, there will be only 6 senior starters for Tech, so anything more than a lower bowl will be a huge spring board to a contender next season. 
            Oklahoma State might have the most front/back-loaded schedule in the country.  They open with the defending National Champions (and favorite to repeat) Florida State, then their last four are at Kansas State, Texas, at Baylor and at Oklahoma.  J.W. Walsh will be the undisputed starter for the first time in his career and will need to increase his pass efficiency after completing less than 60% of his passes and only throwing four more touchdowns than interceptions.  He is a solid dual threat after averaging over five yards per carry, including losses for sacks.  Desmond Roland is back after rushing for 811 yards while splitting time with Jeremy Smith last year, but the breakout back/receiver will be transfer Tyreek Hill.  Hil will bring an explosive dynamic to the offense in a hybrid role similar to Tavon Austin or Percy Harvin except with absolutely world-class speed.  Mike Gundy plans on making sure that Hill gets plenty of opportunities per game and I expect he will make the most of them.  The defense was a surprising strong point last season, but did lose the majority of its starters including first round pick Justin Gilbert.  The back seven will most likely have zero seniors starting, so there will be a lot of youth and inexperience in a league that cannot afford to have that against the pass.  The Cowboys have a good team, but I think the opening loss to Florida State will dampen their confidence and expectations on the season.
            The Charlie Strong era has began and he has definitely made his presence known.  Strong has made it a purpose that it is his way or the highway, and no fewer than eight players have been kicked off the team or suspended indefinitely.  That amount includes likely major contributors Joe Bergeron, Jalen Overstreet and Daje Johnson.  Now I know that I completely over-rated this team last year and had too much belief in David Ash for which they repaid me by losing five games by 19 or more points.  This season I will make no such mistake.  In all honesty, there are only four games that are truly penciled in as wins for the Longhorns, and I would say at least three definite losses.  One of those will be the game against UCLA at the Death Star in Arlington.  We will see what this team is made of whether or not they can hang with the Bruins.  David Ash is back again, but who knows how long he will stay healthy before the electric Tyrone Swoopes takes over.  Johnathan Gray (780 yards) and Malcolm Brown (774 yards) are both back at RB and will be what the offense leans on as the best 1-2 punch of RB’s in the conference.  The defense will have to lead this team with loads of experience after having to play so much youth the past couple of years.  The DT Malcom Brown had 12 TFL last year and really broke out as a future NFL player.  Cedric Reed might be the best player on this entire team as he accounted for 10 sacks and five forced fumbles.  He will have to make up for the loss of Jackson Jeffcoat up front.  Quandre Diggs enters is fourth year as a starter and is arguably the best CB in the league.  I still don’t think that Strong can turn them completely around just yet, and he will need a big-time quarterback to really compete with the upper tier.
            Kansas State is like a poor-man’s San Antonio Spurs: every year I think they are done and will fall off, but every year they prove me wrong.  Bill Snyder has an entrenched quarterback this year, after a year of carousel at the position.  Jake Waters came on strong at the end of the season and ended up with almost 2,500 yards and 24 total touchdowns.  Not only will Waters take snaps from the best center in the league, B.J. Finney (2-time All-Big XII, 39 starts), he will throw to the best WR in the conference, Tyler Lockett.  Lockett had 81 catches for 1,262 yards and 11 touchdowns last season, and looks to break all of his father’s school-receiving records.  No RB on the roster had more than 20 yards last season, but I do believe that the Wildcats will plug and play another 1,000-yard rusher.  The defense will be led by a former walk-on, DE Ryan Mueller.  Mueller had 11.5 sacks and four forced fumbles last season and is a favorite in winning the conference defensive player of the year award.  Kansas State has a difficult non-conference matchup of its own against the National Championship Runner-Up Auburn on the third Thursday of the season.  I do not believe that they will beat the Tigers, but if they someone pull off the upset then they could be a sleeper pick for the Playoff.

The Only Playoff Contenders-While the Big XII is the least likely to get a team in the first College Football Playoff, if they do it will be one of these two.

Oklahoma Sooners, 10-2
Baylor Bears, 10-2

            Baylor starts the year with more expectations than any season in their history and the ironic thing is that they will only start six seniors.  One of those seniors is Heisman contender QB Bryce Petty.  In his first seasons as a starter, Petty put up ridiculous efficiency numbers while totaling 4,200 yards passing and 46 touchdowns to just three interceptions.  I did not believe in him last year, but I cannot fault his skills now.  He is a legitimate NFL prospect.  The rest of the offense is loaded as usual, with receivers Levi Norwood (733 yards/8 touchdowns) and Antwan Goodley (1,339 yards/13 touchdowns) providing the big-play ability for Art Briles’ offense.  Running Back Shock Linwood showed he could handle the load while averaging almost seven yards a carry for 881 yards and 8 touchdowns as the third stringer last season.  The defense is led by mammoth DE Shawn Oakman who stands at 6’9’’ and a trim 275 pounds.  Bryce Hager mans the middle and has 195 tackles over the past two seasons.  Either way, when your offense leads the nation in scoring at 52.4 points a game, your defense does not have to do that much.  The schedule is as friendly as usual, as Baylor still only plays creampuffs in non-conference.  They should be 8-0 heading into their showdown in Norman, but I also see the Bears slipping up in one of their final three games as well.

            Oklahoma comes into the season with the maximum amount of expectations: Playoff or bust.  After the bowls were played out, one could make the argument that they were one of if not the best team in the country at that moment in time.  I think the hype has blown up too much, because as much as Trevor Knight absolutely torched the so-called “real defense” of the SEC even more than any of the Big XII all season, I think he needs to prove himself week in, week out.  He has his own dual-threat ability as he rushed for over 100 yards twice, but needs to get more consistent with his arm (almost half of his passing yards came against Alabama).  Knight will not have Jalen Saunders or Trey Millard to bail him out this season, and I do not think Dorial Green-Beckham will obtain eligibility.  The Sooners will not have 5-star Joe Mixon either after an off-the-field incident.  The defense has the best combo of pass rushers in DE Charles Tapper and LB Eric Striker.  Striker had the memorable game against the Crimson Tide as well with three sacks and a forced fumble.  The Sooners added a seemingly tough game a few years ago against Tennessee, but it looks harmless now.  Their season will come down to the Baylor and Texas games, neither of which is truly a road contest.  I don’t think they can sweep both of those, and also think there will be a hidden loss near the end of the year.  Whether it is Bedlam against Oklahoma State, or in Lubbock against Texas Tech, we all know Bob Stoops’ teams are subject to an upset when too much pressure is on.

Monday, August 25, 2014

College Football Preview: SEC

SEC Doormats-You just have to hope that your team draws one or two of these two from the other division.

Tennessee Volunteers, 4-8
Arkansas Razorbacks, 3-9
Kentucky Wildcats, 3-9

            Kentucky very well could have been the worst BCS Conference team last season.  A 2-10 finish with a loss to Western Kentucky was not the start that new head coach Mark Stoops was hoping for.  Offensive Coordinator Neal Brown has a better quarterback this season in Patrick Towels.  The 6’5’’ cannon-armed sophomore redshirted last season, learning the offense and the intricacies of the position.  He takes over with a new running back in transfer Braylon Heard who averaged almost seven yards per carry at Nebraska.  Stoops still does not have the amount of talent necessary to compete on defense, but he might make the turnaround sooner rather than later.
            Bret Bielema’s wife really stuck her foot in her mouth/Twitter last year, Tweeting “Karma” after a Wisconsin (his former coaching stop) lost a game… then Arkansas promptly lost every game for the rest of the season.  The Razorbacks have not defeated a Big-5 conference team since October 13th, 2012 for a 13-game losing streak.  Bielema at least has the type of two-headed monster at RB that was the staple of his Badger teams.  Alex Collins led the team with 1,026 yards and Jonathan Williams was right behind at 900 yards.  The trouble is on the defensive side, where Arkansas only held one SEC opponent under 28 points and that was the offensively challenged Mississippi State squad that still put up 24.  Defensive End Trey Flowers has 32 career TFL, 12 sacks and should be a top-3 round pick next spring.  He will have to deal with the loss of his bookend Chris Smith who took on the lion share of the double teams last year.  The real problem is the schedule: Arkansas plays nine ranked teams, as well as two road games at teams receiving votes in the polls along with having two of the most hostile environments in the country, Lubbock, Texas and Starksville, Mississippi.
            The good news is Tennessee returns its starting quarterback, second-leading rusher and top five receivers from a year ago.  The bad news is all of those guys led to the 112th passing attack and 96th scoring offense.  Justin Worley was unspectacular behind the center last year before missing the final four games due to injury.  None of the returning receivers had 500 yards, but there are two new targets: transfer Von Pearson and highly touted freshman Josh Malone.  Malone racked up 31 touchdowns and over 1,600 total yards as a high school senior last year.  Pearson had 93 catches for 1,601 and 12 touchdowns at Feather River College in California.  Both are big bodies that can go up and get the ball.  On defense, A.J. Johnson is the best linebacker in the country that no one knows about.  He has averaged over 9 tackles a game over this three seasons while never missing a start.  He has even doubled as the team’s goal line back on occasion and he will definitely be on a roster, maybe even atop the depth chart, for an NFL team next season.  A difficult non-conference game against Oklahoma as well as drawing Alabama and a road-trip to Mississippi from the West will leave the Volunteers looking to build for next season.
           

The Bloated Middle-Just like with the ACC, the SEC only plays eight conference games in an unbalanced schedule so the tiers get ballooned due lack of a true round robin.

Mississippi Rebels, 8-4
Mississippi State Bulldogs, 8-4
Missouri Tigers, 8-4
Florida Gators, 7-5
Texas A&M Aggies, 7-5
Vanderbilt Commodores, 6-6

            Vanderbilt loses head coach James Franklin to Penn State, and all he did was have the best three-year stretch in the school’s history going 24-15 with back-to-back 9-win seasons.  Also gone are the athletic Austin Carta-Samuels and all-time leading receiver Jordan Matthews.  Taking over at QB is Phillip Rivers’ little brother, Stephen Rivers, who will have two years of eligibility left after transferring from LSU.  Rivers will have Jerron Seymour next to him in the backfield, who scored 13 touchdowns last year.  The schedule is friendly enough with a couple of FCS teams that the Commodores will likely sneak into a bowl.
            Johnny Manziel is holding a clipboard in Cleveland for the time being, so the Kenny Hill Era in College Station begins.  The former Southlake Carroll standout will have a healthy Ricky Seals-Jones and 5-Star recruit Speedy Noil to throw to.  He will also have the best Left Tackle in the country protecting his blind side in Cedric Ogbuehi, who will seriously threaten to be the top pick in the draft next year.  The defense was 96th in the country in scoring, but part of that was due to the amount of possessions they had to defend due to the Aggies’ quick pace offense.  There will be three seniors in the secondary with a ton of experience between them.  Sumlin has recruited extremely well though, so expect a lot of youth to work in on the defensive side of the ball.  This year will be difficult though with a stretch of 5 out of 6 games to end the season going: Ole Miss, at Alabama, at Auburn, Missouri, and LSU.  Drawing South Carolina and Missouri from the East Division will not due the Aggies any favors and this should be a rebuilding year towards a possible contender next season.
            Oh how the mighty have fallen.  The Gators lost to a mediocre FCS Georgia Southern last season to emphasize a season-ending 7-game losing streak.  Florida returns the injury-prone Jeff Driskell at quarterback who hopes to finally finish a season healthy.  Mack Brown came out explosively last year at running back, tallying 112 yards and 2 touchdowns but finishing the year with only 431 more yards and two more touchdowns over the final 11 games.  Both of them will have to step up for an offense that was 114th in scoring last season at just 18.8 points a game.  The thing is the defense is as stalwart as always led by lock-down corner Vernon Hargreaves III.  Hargreaves had three interceptions and 11 passes defended as a freshman and that was with opposing quarterbacks throwing away from him the whole second half of the season.  Defensive End Dante Fowling Jr. will likely move on the NFL after this year, but the Gators will need him to emulate the 12 TFL and 3 forced fumbles he had last season.  Florida also drew LSU and Alabama from the West Division, so if they don’t pull an upset or two this year, it could be Muschamp’s last in Gainesville.
            Missouri was quite a surprise last year reaching the SEC Championship, but I think they are getting a little too much credit going into this season.  The Tigers lose their leading passer, rusher, and two leading receivers from a year ago, as well as the Co-Defensive Player of the Year.  Maty Mauk filled in admirably for James Franklin a year ago throwing for 1,071 yards, rushing for another 229 with 12 total touchdowns and just 2 interceptions.  With a full offseason as a starter Mauk should make a leap in production, but Dorial Green-Beckham will be sorely missed as he tries to regain eligibility at Oklahoma.  The schedule is not too bad getting Texas A&M and Arkansas from the West Division, but I could see the Tigers slipping up at Florida after playing South Carolina and Georgia the two weeks prior.
            Mississippi State seems to be stuck in the rut of 7-9 wins and holding steady.  They are always a team that can beat anyone on a given day, but can never win high-profile games consistently.  Dak Prescott is back at QB after leading the team in passing and rushing last season (1,657 yards passing/751 rushing, 18 total touchdowns).  He also returns both of his top receivers, Jameon Lewis and Robert Johnson.  Lewis may be diminutive (5’8’’) but his got some serious moves.  The strength of the Bulldogs is their defense with linebacker Benardrick McKinney.  McKinney is the top-rated outside linebacker prospect in next year’s draft after recording 173 tackles in his first two seasons.  Helping McKinney will be sophomore DT Chris Jones who had three sacks, seven tackles for a loss and ten QB hurries in his first season.  I can’t see the Bulldogs pulling out an upset against any of the top-four in the SEC West, but they should win the rest of their games getting Vanderbilt and Kentucky from the East Division.
            Ole Miss’ recent run of strong recruiting classes could start to pay off this season.  Senior QB Bo Wallace threw for 3,346 yards and 18 touchdowns last year but had one disturbing trend: all ten of his interceptions came in just came in just 5 games, four of which were losses in the Rebels’ biggest games.  Wallace will need to step it up against the tougher competition and sophomore Laquon Treadwell will be his go-to target.  Treadwell was the SEC Offensive Freshman of the Year after catching 72 passes for 608 yards and 5 touchdowns.  The number one overall recruit from 2013 Robert Nkemdiche will move inside to DT after an injury-plagued freshman year.  When he was healthy, Nkemdiche showed signs he could be the next Jadaveon Clowney.  Free Safety Cody Prewitt comes back after garnering All-American honors last season with six interceptions.  This team is another that would need some luck to contend this year, although they do get Arkansas and Tennessee from the East Division.  However with Dallas-born QB Devante Kincaide ready to step in next season, the Rebels could be a force for the next few years.

Multiple Playoff Contenders-If any conference has a chance at getting multiple teams in the Playoff, it will probably be from this group.

Alabama Crimson Tide, 11-1
LSU Tigers, 11-1
South Carolina Gamecocks, 11-1
Georgia Bulldogs, 10-2
Auburn Tigers, 10-2

            Auburn made one of the more surprising SEC Championship runs last season than I can remember in recent history.  I completely under-rated them last year, but I was far from the only one.  They also had a fair bit of luck to get to the championship game, and I doubt everything falls right into place again.  The Tigers bring back the majority of their offense from last season, but do lose the best offensive lineman in the country Greg Robinson.  They also lose Tre Mason and his 1,600+ rushing yards, but do return QB Nick Marshall with a full off-season of practice.  Marshall will be the first quarterback that Malzahn has had for more than one season as a coordinator or head coach.  Center Reese Dismukes looks to pivot the nation’s best rushing attack again and is probably the best and most consistent center in the country (37 starts).  Wide Receiver Sammie Coates is back as well after over 900 yards and 7 touchdowns last season.  Auburn does play one of, if not the most difficult schedule in the country with a non-conference road trip against a ranked Kansas State team, as well as road games at Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama (along with home contests against LSU, South Carolina, and Texas A&M).  Having to play both the Gamecocks and Bulldogs from the East Division is brutal, and will be the main reason that the Tigers do not repeat as division champions.
            Speaking of the Bulldogs, Georgia loses the SEC’s all-time leading passer, and Bachelorette-winning brother, Aaron Murray.  Hutson Mason got a head start on this season having to fill in at the end of last year when Murray got hurt.  Mason will have the help of the best running back in the country Todd Gurley, behind him.  Gurley had almost 1,000 yards rushing despite missing three and a half games, but really added to his importance by catching 37 passes for 441 yards.  Those screens could be huge in building Mason’s confidence.  Georgia should also have its top three receivers (who all missed time last year due to injury) in Michael Bennett, Chris Conley and Malcolm Mitchell.  The table is set for Hutson Mason to have a season to remember.  On defense, the Bulldogs have the best line-backing trio in the SEC with Jordan Jenkins, Ramik Wilson and Leonard Floyd.   Jenkins is a likely first round pick from the outside, Wilson led the SEC in tackles (133 tackles/76 solo) and Floyd had 6.5 sacks and 22 quarterback hurries.  The schedule is the one thing that really holds Georgia back, as they open with Clemson at home and a road game at South Carolina right after.  If they get out of those two games unscathed, look for them to win the East and make the Playoff.
            There’s one certainty I can tell you about South Carolina: we will know a lot more about them Friday morning after they play Texas A&M.  The Gamecocks lost the number one overall pick in the draft (Clowney) and their starting QB Connor Shaw, but are projected by most experts to be better this season.  Dylan Thompson is a more prototypical passer than Shaw was, and showed his ability as a sophomore in limited action, throwing for 10 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions.  With an entire offseason as the starter, I think Thompson steps it up this season.  One of the main reasons for that is RB Mike Davis, who many draft experts have as a better prospect than previous Gamecock back Marcus Lattimore.  Davis had over 1,200 yards last season on less than 200 attempts while chipping in almost 400 yards receiving.  He has more big play ability than Lattimore every possessed, and an offensive line that has one of the best left sides in the country.  Guard A.J. Cann is the second ranked interior lineman eligible for the draft next season, and tackle Corey Robinson is not much further down the chart.  The defense will definitely miss Clowney, but sophomores Gerald Dixon and Darius English and big, athletic guys that are more than ready to pick up the slack.  South Carolina dodges both Alabama and LSU but do have to visit Auburn.  I think we will see the extant of the Gamecocks’ ceiling by the night of September 13th, as they will have already played both A&M and Georgia. 
            I really cannot explain too much why, but I have a strong feeling about this LSU team.  They lose Zach Mettenberger, but Anthony Jennings has shown flashes of his skill and athleticism.  La’el Collins is possibly the second best tackle in the country, and combined with Vadal Alexander at guard give the Tigers a formidable left side as well.  More importantly, LSU has one of the deepest stables of backs in the country, led by the number one overall recruit Leonard Fournette.  All Fournette did in high school was rush for 7,619 yards and 88 touchdowns while being hailed as the next Adrian Peterson.  I am not going to say he will live up to that much hype… but I also can’t dismiss it either.  He is that good.  The defense might only start two seniors, but they will have possible NFL roster-guys at every level.  Jermauria Rasco will anchor the pass rush and D.J. Welter will clean up the middle.  I like their schedule as well: they get Alabama at home and draw Florida and Kentucky from the East Division.  I fully expect the Tigers to be a contender for the SEC West title and what would be an almost automatic Playoff spot.

            Then there’s the other top contender (who is pretty much just that every single year) the Crimson Tide of Alabama.  The Tide loses 2-time National Champion A.J. McCarron at quarterback, but have two fine options in Blake Sims and Jacob Coker.  I think the Florida State-transfer Coker will win the battle, mainly since people that I trust their opinion have said he is a possible first round draft pick.  Either way, whoever starts at QB will have the best RB duo in the country in T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry.  Yeldon rushed for 1,235 yards and 14 touchdowns on just 207 carries as his first season as the starter.  Henry did not get much action until late in the season, and then averaged 10.6 yards per carry including a dominant performance in the Sugar Bowl.  Amari Cooper is one of the best receivers in the country and will build on the 1,700+ carrer yards and 15 touchdowns.  Free Safety Landon Collins became the stud everyone thought he would be out of high school last year as a sophomore, impacting the game in every way possible: 70 tackles, 4 TFL, 2 forced fumbles, 2 recovered, 2 sacks, 8 passes defended and 2 interceptions.  A’Shawn Robinson had 5.5 sacks and 8 TFL as a true freshman DT last season, and is almost certainly a future first round pick.  This team is loaded and deep as always, and also has one of the best schedules.  The opener against West Virginia seemed a little tougher a few years ago.  They get both Auburn and A&M at home.  They get Tennessee and Florida out of the East Division.  The table is set for the Crimson Tide to make the first Playoff.