Thursday, June 6, 2013

NBA Finals Preview


Last year, I had quite a good perception on the way The Finals would go.  I figured that one of the none-Big 3 Heat would swing a crucial game with a string of threes, and Mike Miller did just that.  I also figured that LeBron James would do all sorts of LeBron James things and Kevin Durant could not match up.  It took some luck, as the two teams were such unknown quantities.  This year is a much different story with two teams that have been here before and know who they are. 
Before I get to picking someone to win, I like many other Mavericks’ fans am in a big of a quandary.  These are Dallas’ biggest two rivals of the Dirk era.  I mean, if not for these two teams I firmly believe Dirk has three, maybe four rings on his hand right now (side note: the 2002-2003 Mavericks get forgotten and might have been their best team with Dirk and Nash/Finley/Van Exel all in their prime, and were about to go up 2-1 with home court on the Spurs in the conference finals when Dirk hurt his knee).  So who should we want to win?  Some people choose the route that the “Spurs are a Texas/Western Conference team so we should root for them.”  As I have previously stated I refuse to root for my biggest rival based on affiliation.  So what to do? 
I broke it down in two ways.  First, I hate the Spurs more than the Heat.  When compared, I do dislike Wade more than Duncan, but I DEFINITELY hate Ginobili and Parker more than LeBron and Bosh.  I do not want to just be a hater, so I kept looking.  Secondly, Spurs’ fans have every type of bragging rights over Dallas fans except for two (should the Heat win): the Mavs’ have won a title more recently, and Dirk was able to overcome the great Miami LeBrons and the Spurs haven’t.  So for those reasons, I will not say I am rooting for the Heat, but I hate them a little less than San Antonio.  Hopefully, a steroid scandal breaks and both teams are disqualified from the league.
As for the actual basketball, this is the matchup that the Spurs wanted, without a doubt.  Zach Lowe from Grantland wrote that he thought San Antonio was actually rooting for Miami to beat Indiana.  I thought that was indiocracy until I delved deeper into the numbers.  The Spurs have a prevalent mistaken identity that they are a big, physical team that rebounds well and plays good half court defense.  In reality, San Antonio plays quite similarly to Miami. 
The Heat and Spurs were 6th and 7th in the league in 3-pointers attempted while being 1st and 2nd in percentage, respectively.  Both coaching staffs are part of the advanced metrics portion of the NBA that values the corner-3 above every other shot outside of the paint.  Because of the high amount of threes taken, both teams are in the bottom third in rebounding.  While Miami is last in total rebounding, their differential is actually 18, one spot behind the Spurs, and that shows a more accurate picture of their rebounding.
The biggest perceived difference would be Tim Duncan to LeBron James as the center of the offense.  However, the two play a point role in the post in almost the same exact way.  By looking at their shot charts on Fan Graphs, you can see that Duncan and James operate extensively from the same spot between the block and the wing.  Duncan has his little 18-foot bank shot and LeBron goes to either his fadeway or takes it to the rack.  Neither team really plays “big” like the Pacers or Grizzlies, and the Spurs actually gave up almost two points more a game than the Heat. 
So with no clear favorite from the overall numbers, let’s look at the individual matchups.  There is another misconception that the Spurs have the advantage here because Bosh cannot guard Tim Duncan.  Well who on the planet can guard LeBron?  In Game 7 of the Pacers series, the Heat started doubling down on Hibbert and caused havoc with their superb rotations.  Now Duncan is a much better passer than Hibbert and the Spurs are better 3-point shooters, but I suspect that Spoelstra will employ this tactic extensively.  The real decision will be who LeBron will guard.  He can be put on Leonard to save his energy for the offensive end and allow for more help opportunities or he can check Parker to try and neutralize the quick Frenchmen.  I would have to say that putting James on Parker, Wade on Ginobili, and Chalmers/Battier/Miller on Green/Neal/Leonard will be Miami’s best option.
The Spurs on the other hand will have to stick almost exclusively to Kawhi guarding LeBron.  Neal and Green are not big enough or near physical enough to handle the 6’9’’ 275 pound frame of James.  He would destroy both on the block and might even do the same to Leonard without help from Duncan/Splitter.  Tiago Splitter is not nearly the inside shot-blocking presence that Roy Hibbert is, so I imagine the Heat will be much more assertive in driving the ball to the hoop.
The Bench is where there is the most distinct advantage.  With Ray Allen, Shane Battier, Rashard Lewis and Mike Miller, the Heat have possibly the best sharp shooting bench in the history of the game.  Throw in the added enthusiasms and bursts of energy that are Norris Cole and Chris Anderson, and the bench unit for Miami has a clear advantage over the slow Spurs’ second unit.  Not to mention that Cole can be used to pester Parker and Anderson to get under Duncan’s skin to help out with Bosh/LeBron’s defensive assignments.
In reality, both teams would rather play each other than the vanquished foes in the conference finals.  They both play the same up-tempo, jack it up style of offense.  The Spurs rely on a constant symphony of ball movement while Miami relies on the athleticism and playmaking ability of its superstars.  I really think that Ray Allen could (should) be the X-factor in the series.  He can get significant run by being hidden on defense guarding 3-point shooters something that will be drastically different to the athletic wings of Indiana.  He had been cold until the end of the Indiana series, so I think he will stay hot and turn a game or two.  However, Duncan is 4-0 in The Finals for a reason and Parker is playing as well as almost anyone right now.  San Antonio also has a clear coaching advantage which can be exploited just as Carlisle did in ’11.  The Spurs even have the non-home court advantage of having to only steal one of the first two games then being able to close out at home in the 2-3-2 format. 
With all that said, I really could have made this entire preview/prediction in one single sentence: Miami has LeBron and San Antonio does not.  Heat in 6

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

The Mavs' Next Move

                A little over a year ago, on this very blog, I wrote about the imminent emergence of Roy Hibbert and how I would much rather have him for the next few years rather than Tyson Chandler.  People laughed at that, but they are eating too much crow to be named right now.  Hibbert put up 16 points, over 10 rebounds and 3 blocks a game compared to Chandler’s 6/6/1.5 over their series, including a series closer of Hibbert throwing up a 21/12/5 while holding Tyson to 2(TWO!!)/6/0.  Yes Hibbert was restricted, so the Pacers could have matched anything the Mavs’ could have offered, but you never know if Hibbert could have put pressure to come play with Dirk.
            A couple of months later, I wrote about my excitement about the Mavs’ pieced together roster.  This is where I look completely wrong as I predicted a 3-5 seed and Dallas missed the playoffs for the first time this century.  However, I still stand by that the 2012/2013 Mavericks’ team was much better than anyone realized.  I think if Dirk is not himself for half the season in any of these past 10 seasons then Dallas has a tough time making the playoffs.  But from the point the Mavericks hit 13-23, they then finished the season 28-18, or know the equivalent of a 50-win team putting them right in the middle of the Western Conference Playoffs.  I did overestimate the effectiveness of Collison as a starting point guard, but should Dirk have been completely healthy from the start, that team would be remembered far differently.
Now let’s get to what the Mavericks’ next move is.  I am not even going to talk about the possibility of getting Chris Paul AND Dwight Howard, as that is a pipe dream that would take a huge discount by both and some serious sign and trades.  Even if it could be done, it would be the obvious choice.  Nonetheless, let’s take a look at what the Mavs could do.
(All of these options include re-signing O.J. Mayo to a longer contract for about the same salary, because I see keeping Mayo is a MUST for this Dallas team)
OPTION 1: Sign Chris Paul
            With the recent development that Paul is quite unhappy with being the de facto executioner for Vinny Del Negro’s employment; the realization that the Mavericks could get him is starting to sink in.  The only teams with enough space to sign him to the max and are an even somewhat intriguing option are: Dallas, the Clippers, Houston, Utah and Atlanta.  Houston has a few quality guards already and will be looking to get Howard, so they are effectively out (unless they can pull the Jedi Mind trick sign-and-trades to get both, in which case we would have a new favorite for the 2014 title).  The Jazz are in a state of flux with only five guys signed for next season, and both leading scorers likely to leave so I doubt Paul even considers them.  That leaves returning to the Clippers, or jumping to the Mavericks or Hawks.  The Hawks are only in play if they can lure Dwight, and even then the core of Howard/Horford/Paul is a great starting point, but there would be no money left over for wing players.  As we just saw with the Heat and Pacers, wing play/defense is a must-have to win.  Anyway, everything I have season points that Dwight does not want to play in Atlanta, so that takes them out of the running. 
            So in my mind, I see only two options for Paul: Dallas or the Clippers.  Los Angeles obviously has a younger, more hyped core, but are they really that much better than Dallas?  Blake Griffin has not progressed much since entering the league, especially on the offensive end.  DeAndre Jordan has actually taken steps back in his progression.  Caron Butler is a shell of the player he used to be.  I watched this team go toe-to-toe with the Mavericks, and it was completely the Chris Paul show: he had to do everything on his own (much like Dirk was doing for the Mavs).  That game is what leads me to believe that Paul wants to come play with Dirk.  Their pick-and-pop game would be unstoppable, and Paul would not have to worry about the other team just fouling his power-forward down the stretch to get the ball back.
Option 1A: Sign Paul, draft a center
            Okay, so Dallas theoretically has Chris Paul in the bag, but a center is still needed.  They have the 13th pick in possibly the weakest draft in 20 years, but there will be a couple of defensive centers on the board still.  Dirk works best with a shot-blocking presence next to him, and Gorgui Deng from Louisville and Jeff Withey out of Kansas can both provide that.  There is also Steven Adams out of Pittsburgh, who is raw but has tons of upside. All three of these guys are unrefined on the offensive end, but have the potential to flourish especially if Chris Paul was guiding them and Dirk was taking double teams away from them.  Personally, I would take Steven Adams: a legit 7-footer with enough bulk to handle the Roy Hibbert/Dwight Howards and an intriguing mid-range jumper. 
Option 1B: Sign Paul, sign a free agent center
            This is where it gets tricky, salary wise.  It would take a little maneuvering, including trading the 13th pick to create enough salary space for a max Paul contract as well as another mid-range deal.  While I would love for Dallas to sign both Paul and Pekovic/Okafor, the price tag to get them would probably be too much.  The more likely options fall to Zaza Pachulia, Samuel Dalembert or Andray Blatche.  None of them seem that enticing to me.
Option 2: Sign Dwight Howard
            Every day that goes by this seems less and less like a realistic possibility as well as continuing to strengthen the Rockets’ case to sign him.  However, should Cuban/Donnie pull the rabbit out of the hat and land Howard, they would be a starting point guard away from contending.  Howard may see that too, and with the point guards that could be there in the draft or even in free agency, the situation might entice him up I-45 to Dallas.
Option 2A: Sign Howard, draft a point guard
            Marcus Smart and the other tops guards that stayed in school really screwed the Mavericks over.  Should Smart have come out, that would have pushed the other point guards back into a situation where Try Burke would have most likely slipped to Dallas.  Nonetheless, it is looking like Michael Carter-Williams from Syracuse will be available at 13.  Carter-Williams is a tall/long point guard that carried an otherwise subpar Orange team to the Final Four.  His shot could use some work, but in the context of this scenario with Dirk/Dwight/Marion/Mayo, Carter-Williams’ outside shot would not need to be relied upon.  The other point guard option that has been floated is the German Dennis Schroeder.  He has been compared to Tony Parker for more reasons than being European, so if Donnie sees the same in him then he could be the choice.  I have not seen enough of Schroeder to make an educated opinion, so I would have to lean towards Carter-Williams.
Option 2B: Sign Howard, sigh a free agent point guard
            There are really own two intriguing names out there at point guard outside of Chris Paul: Aaron Brooks and Brandon Jennings.  Now Brooks might take the less money that would be necessary to fit both he and Dwight, but he is restricted and the salary could, and probably would be matched at the lower level.  Jennings on the other hand, is a complicated situation.  He thinks quite highly of himself and has said he believes he deserves max money.  However I do not think any of the teams with enough space would give him a max deal.  Once he realizes that, he could also realize that to get his money, he will need to take less at first, and jump into a good situation… oh you know like playing with Dwight Howard and Dirk Nowitzki.  If the Mavs could work out the salaries to sign both Howard/Jennings then it should definitely be done above almost all other options.
Option 3: Sign Andrew Bynum
            After missing the entire season due to different and weird ailments, Bynum will most likely not get a max deal anywhere.  Should the Mavericks strike out on both Howard and Paul, the landing spots for Bynum to get anywhere near the max will dwindle and leave Dallas as the most likely suitor.  Now I know he has his quirks and injury history, but he proved in the 2010 Finals that he can be a top-3 center and top-20 player when healthy.  The problem would be that he would need a strong point guard influence to keep his head straight, and a rookie would not be the answer.  If Bynum is the choice, the Mavs could work a sign and trade with their 1st round pick to bring in a Jose Calderon or Jarrett Jack, guys who are strong floor leaders. 
Option 4: Sign near-max level free agents, draft best player available
            This is by far the least “sexy” of any of the options, but the most likely for sure.  I think it starts and ends with Nikola Pekovic.  He is probably the most under-rated player by the masses in the entire league.  He averaged over 16 points, 9 rebounds and a block a game while playing just over 30 minutes a night.  Should he get a full share of minutes, his numbers equate to almost 20 points, 11 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks a game.  He is only 27, has the size (6’11’’, 290) and protects the rim.  Now he is a restricted free agent and the Timberwolves can match, but if the offer is in the 8-figure range they most likely will not.  They know they are about to have to pay Rubio and Love and they are not a team that will go far and away above the tax threshold.  So if the Mavs left the other teams with space max out with big men Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Emeka Okafor and Andrew Bynum, Dallas could snipe Pekovic for a better deal.  This would also allow Dallas to sign an $8-10 million point guard, such as Brandon Jennings.  With Jennings-Mayo-Marion/Crowder-Dirk-Pekovic, the Mavericks could then draft the best player available and not have to worry about getting a starter or even a sixth man.  So they could get Michael Carter-Williams for the bigger point guards, Steven Adams as a project big man, C.J. McCollum or Tim Hardaway Jr. as a microwave bench scorer, or even take a shot on Tony Mitchell.
Option Blasphemy: Trade Dirk
            I would never want this.  Ever.  BUT… I mean you can maneuver the salary dumping, and add first round picks from Indiana to Dallas, but if the Mavs could get Granger, a 25 ppg scorer just a season ago, and the Pacers can get a stretch four that they desperately need, who would say no? Dallas could extend Granger for less than the max coming off of an injury, so they would be able to explore all sorts of different options previously mentioned with signing a big name.  They could go get Pekovic, move Marion to the 4 and draft a point guard, all the while keeping some space for 2014.  Hell, they might even be able to lure Paul or Howard easier with Granger than Dirk, and then follow through with the previous options.  As much as I do not think nor want it to ever happen, trading Dirk might be the best option for Dallas.
My Choice:
When I started writing this, I thought for sure a Chris Paul option would be my choice as the best route, but I have come around on the fourth one and here is the reason why: the Mavericks have ZERO dollars guaranteed for the 2014-2015 season.  Zero.  So let’s say that Dirk/Marion/Mayo work out longer deals, but for less money, holding about a $20 million cap hold for that year (reasonable value, since Dirk said he will take significantly less, Marion can’t get much more, and Mayo tailed off at the end of the year).  Then you sign a couple of $10 million a year free agents, with cap holds you get to about $42 million on for that Summer or the equivalent to have a starting five in place with enough cap room to sign a max free agent in the biggest free agent class ever including Luol Deng, Andrew Bogut, Danny Granger, Pau Gasol, Kobe Bryant (don’t think he won’t consider leaving if Howard is gone), Zach Randolph, Marcin Gortat, DeMarcus Cousins, and player opt outs for Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and LeBron James.  If the Mavs could offer LeBron (who IS leaving Miami after next year, unless they trade Bosh for some young pieces) the lineup mentioned with Pekovic, Jennings or a promising young point guard and a gracefully aging Dirk shooting jumpers, they might have a slim chance at landing him.  And let’s not kid ourselves; whoever has LeBron has the best chance to win it all.