Friday, January 31, 2014

Super Bowl Pick and Props

Almost every year ESPN and the network broadcasting the game try to make it out to be the biggest and best Super Bowl matchup ever.  For the first time since at least the Giants/Bills game, maybe even as far back as the second Cowboys/Steelers matchup, I think the hype is deserved.  You have the greatest offense in this history of the sport against the best passing defense ever, when factoring in era.
                The Broncos offense is almost self-explanatory at this point: most points ever, most passing touchdowns in a season, most passing yards in a season, etc.  Bill Barnwell broke down how even adjusting for the highest scoring season in NFL history, Denver’s offense is the most prolific and efficient in regards to the league average.  Peyton Manning’s ability to pick a defensive scheme apart has become a thing of beauty.  He takes what the defense knows it is giving him then exploits the cracks in the system whenever they present themselves. 
                Seattle’s defense is right on par in their level of play compared to the Broncos’ offense.  There are no all-time records to back them up, but to think they are not as good as the record holders is being ignorant to the changing in style of play throughout the whole league.  The Seahawks were able to put up stifling pass defense numbers during a season with the most 4,000 yard passers ever.  Their pass defense in relation to the average throughout the league can be quantified as the best ever.  They basically turn every opposing quarterback into someone who has started for the Browns the past couple of seasons. 
                On the outside we have the classic good vs. evil matchup of offense and defense.  The level of play on either side of the ball matches up almost exactly in prominence as well as publicity.  What makes this game truly special though is the almost identical path these two teams have taken.  They have identical records but it goes much further than that.  Both teams were the number one seed in their conference.  Both teams finished 7-1 at home and 6-2 on the road.  Both teams vanquished their arch nemesis in the conference championships.  The real similarity though, goes with the way each team has played throughout the season.
                Seattle and Denver each have three losses on the season and the fashion of the losses is almost identical.  Both teams lost to the Indianapolis Colts, an overtime game to the second best team in the conference which they then defeated in the conference championship games, and a home game to a divisional opponent late in the season (Arizona and San Diego).  They also each had close wins over bad teams early in the season (Seattle over Houston and Denver over the Cowboys) where parts of the team did not play well but they got the TLF to go their way when it mattered.  These two teams are about as equal, but drastically built-different as you can possibly get in the NFL.
                The battle that everyone will focus on is the Denver passing game against the Seattle defense.  The key matchups are not in the secondary though; they are at the line of scrimmage.  Manning is best when he steps up into the pocket to deliver his wobbly but acutely accurate middle of the field throws to the crossing patterns that Denver is so fond of running.  Seattle has the best defensive line depth in the league and will be able to get pressure up the middle with both starters, Tony McDaniel and Brandon Mebane as well as their backups Jordan Hill and Clinton McDonald.  The real catch that I think Pete Carroll has up his sleeve is using a 3-4 alignment in obvious passing situations bringing Bruce Irvin off the edge on one side, sliding Michael Bennett inside because of his massive size, and then having a Cliff Avril, Red Bryant and Chris Clemons combination coming  on either side of him.  The Broncos’ guard tandem of Louis Vasquez and Zane Beadles is good, but their tackles cannot handle that kind of pass rush.
                The Seahawks will then be able to get pressure with just a 4- or 5-man pass rush, leaving six or seven in the back to cover the four Broncos.  Factor in Richard Sherman taking one flank out completely and you have five/six over three with Peyton Manning forced out of the pocket.  The physicality of the Seattle defensive backs will push the timing off of Denver’s routes, and Peyton will have to go off of the normal plan to find open receivers.  This combination of coverage scheme and interior pass rush will effectively contain this dominant offense. 
                Will Seattle be able to shut Denver down completely?  Of course not; the Seahawks’ offense will have to operate efficiently and still get to the mid-to-high 20’s to win the game.  I imagine that John Fox will pack the box and make Russell Wilson beat them because their depleted defensive front seven will not be able to contain Marshawn Lynch without help from the back end.  Seattle has some road plowers up front in Russell Okung and Max Unger, but their pass blocking is not at the same elite level.  The Seahawks’ kryptonite has been edge rushers with Robert Quinn, Chris Long, Calais Campbell, Robert Mathis and Whitney Mercilus combining for 12.5 sacks in just four games.  Denver has arguably the best speed edge rusher in the league with Von Miller, but his torn ACL will keep him out of this contest.  I truly think he could have been the X-Factor in winning the game for Denver, but without him Russell Wilson will have the time he needs against the front four pass rush.  When the Broncos blitz, they will be blitzing the best yards-per-play offense in the league against five or more pass rushers.
                The bottom line is I think the Seattle front four completely and devastatingly outplays the Denver front four.  I see a similar game to Super Bowl XLII when the Giants pressured Tom Brady all game and were able to make just enough plays on offense to win.  The differences are obviously that the Denver offense is better than that Patriots team and this Seattle defense is significantly better than that Giants team.  I see the Seahawks pressuring Manning into making hurried throws as well as forcing him to move out of the pocket, where we have seen him make the majority of his mistakes.  I think Russell Wilson will utilize his secondary options of Doug Baldwin and Zach Miller in the passing game to make Denver pay for blitzing. 
The spread opened at Seattle -2 some places, and has been bet all the way to Denver -3.  Over 80% of all money in Vegas is coming in on the Broncos.  Casinos keep a separate account of how much money is made/lost on the Super Bowl and only twice in the history of the game has Vegas taken a loss.  It would take a monumental amount of action on Seattle to swing it back to even, so if Denver wins, Vegas loses.  Vegas always wins.  Seattle over Denver, 27-23.
Prop Bets
MVP
Richard Sherman +2000
Doug Baldwin +3000
Who won the game for Seattle against San Francisco?  I.e. if that was the Super Bowl, who would have had the hype to get the MVP award?  As we know, the MVP is mostly about hype as much as who actually played the most vital role.  I think Doug Baldwin would have won the MVP for his 106 yards, touchdown, and huge kickoff return against San Francisco.  I think he can have a similar game against Denver.  I also think that if Sherman gets an interception he will be in the conversation.  Either way, at 30-1 and 20-1 these odds are too juicy to pass up.
Peyton Manning UNDER 1.5 Rush Attempts
I like this prop at normal juice, but at the -165 it has gotten to it loses value.  Kneel-downs count as rushing attempts, so if you think Denver will win then the over is probably the play.  Even then, he could be stuck at one so I think the Under is strong here.
Shortest Rushing Touchdown OVER 1.5 yards (even money)
No matter the teams I would like this bet at even money.  Especially with the Seahawks power running game usually getting that last yard on the carry before, or Manning going play-action, this bet feels solid.  The only real scare would be a pass interference in the end zone.
Distance of Russell Wilson’s first Touchdown Pass: OVER 14.5 yards (No TD=No action)
Along the same lines as the last bet, I feel like Seattle will pound the ball once inside the 15, and have success doing it.  So with the qualifier up that there is no action with no touchdown passes, I like the odds that Wilson’s TD pass will be of some length.
Which will be longer: First punt of the game or longest touchdown?  First Punt at +140
Dustin Colquitt’s over/under for his first punt is 42.5 yards and John Ryan’s 50.5 yards, so the average would be 46.5 yards.  With that logic, the longest touchdown would have to be near fifty yards, while the line is only 44.5 (which I like the under).  I feel like Seattle will thwart the big play, so anything better than even money feels like a steal.
First Interception Recorded: Seahawks -135
As I said in my breakdown, I think that the Seattle pass rush forces some bad decisions by Peyton.  I also think Russell Wilson will take extra care of the ball and pull it down to run rather than force it.
Russell Wilson Rushing Yards: OVER 32/Longest Rush OVER 13.5 yards
Along the lines of pulling the ball down, I think Russell Wilson passes his season average of 33 yards a game considering the only other running quarterback to face Denver, Terrelle Pryror has almost 100 yards on just 9 carries.  I think he can get one long run in against the Denver blitz.
Total Seahawks Rushing Yards: OVER 132.5
With that said, I think Seattle easily surpasses this total.  If Wilson chips in the over 32, that leaves just 100 to get between Robert Turbin, Marshawn Lynch and even a possible Percy Harvin carry.  I mean just adding up their three over/under totals gets you to 137.5, so there is at least 5 yards of value.
Seahawks Defense OVER 1.5 sacks
In my breakdown I also said I see the pass rush getting Manning down a few times and this number seems quite low.  Peyton will look to not force anything in the cold and prefer to take the sack rather than make a risky throw while getting hit.
Peyton Manning Interception before Touchdown: +240
Along those lines I still think that Seattle gets to Peyton early.  The odds are almost too good to pass up at almost two and a half to one.
Total number of Broncos with Rush Attempt: OVER 3.5 (+135)
Whether it is C.J. Anderson, Ronnie Hillman or Virgil Green, the Broncos have given carries to their third back.  I like the way Green looked in his one carry against New England and would not be surprised to see him get a couple in the game.  It is also a good hedge, possible double down with the Manning Under 1.5 rushes.
Julius Thomas Total Receiving Yards: UNDER 51.5
The past three tight ends have combined for 8 catches for just 54 yards against Seattle, and those three would be: Jared Cook, Vernon Davis and Jimmy Graham, probably the most athletic three tight ends in the league along with Thomas.  In fact, in three games against Davis, two against Graham, two against Cook, and one against Tony Gonzalez, the highest yardage total for an opposing tight end was just 42 yards. 
Kevin Love +2.5 Points+Rebounds vs. Montee Ball Rushing Yards
Kevin Love averages 25 points and 13 rebounds a game facing an Atlanta team that gives up more than 101 points a game and is without Al Horford rebounding the in the middle.  Montee Ball’s over/under total is just 35.5 yards and averaged just 34 yards a game this season. 
Marshawn Lynch +8.5 more yards than Boston Celtics Total Points
Boston is scoring just 94 points a game and is a bit banged up right now.  Lynch’s over/under for yards is at 94.5 so you are getting almost ten yards of value.
Tiger Woods’ Birdies +0.5 over Demaryius Thomas Catches
I don’t think that Thomas will have too many opportunities in the game, and Tiger had 4 birdies on just the front nine in Dubai during his first round.  He will definitely have the putting opportunity to win this bet, and I think he makes the most of it.

Friday, January 17, 2014

Manning vs. Brady and Championship Game Picks

In my opinion, Peyton Manning is the best football player to ever play the game.  This statement either sparks an immediate counter-argument for a different quarterback, makes one think about the possiblity that it is true, or brings a resounding confirmation of agreement.  To go even further though, I do not think Peyton is the best player right now, even after throwing for 55 touchdowns and over 5,400 yards (and I will go into that further next week in my first annual quarterback rankings).  This is where a quarterback argument gets tricky.
There really should only be eight quarterbacks in the arguemnt for best ever: Manning, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Troy Aikman, Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Johnny Unitas, and Bart Starr.  As good as Starr and Unitas were in their eras, they basically played a completely separate game; it was like checkers to the chess that is now played, so they are off my list.  Aikman does not get much credit as a member of this group outside of Dallas due to his injury-shortened career and Hall-of-Fame surrounding cast, so he is out.  Marino and Favre are a bit over-rated (sad to say, as Marino used to by my favorite quarterback ever) due to counting statistics and getting to just sling the ball all around.  Neither was able to control the game like the top three, so those two are out.
That leaves us with Manning, Brady and Montana.  To me, Montana is not on the same level as the other two.  As good as Marvin Harrison or Randy Moss have been for Brady/Manning, neither had the ability to throw to the greatest receiver ever for the majority of his career.  Montana also did not have to deal with the exponentially better defensive strategies that are employed today.  He then had the best defense of the decade to make his job much easier.  So is he a victim of his time frame and team?  Yeah, probably.  But if we are judging by what the quarterback has shown on the field, then those two factors have to be taken into account, eliminating him from the conversation. 
So that leaves the starters for the AFC Championship Game.  Once again it is my opinion, but Peyton gets the nod and it is not even close.  The only advantages Brady has are Super Bowls and winning percentage.  Every other statistic, seasonal or career, is a win for Manning and some are not even close as Peyton closes in on the all-time records.  For those thinking that Super Bowls are the most important, I have a question for you: why?  Why should we hail Brady for winning with one of the top 2 or 3 coaches in the history of the game?  Why should we demote Manning for having the lower rated defense than Brady in every single season except the one he won the Super Bowl?  Why should Brady get more credit for starting his career with a playoff ready team, while Manning started with the worst team over the previous 4 years? 
Tom Brady won his three Super Bowls during the first four years that he was a starter and started his career 10-0 in the playoffs.  After that last Super Bowl, the Patriots defense lost the majority of its veteran leaders, Brady was asked to do more, and he had superior talent around him on offense (until this season) yet had a losing record in the playoffs until this past Sunday.  I believe that Brady gets way too much credit for those Super Bowl seasons.  Just look at the stats: in those nine playoff games, Brady averaged 216 yards passing a game, with just 11 touchdowns.  He managed the games to victory, which is not a sign of the greatest quarterback, but the greatest game manager.  Manning has never had the luxury of getting to manage a team to victory (much like a much maligned Dallas signal-caller).  Manning has literally been the coach on the field, and is the most prepared and intelligent person to play the position.  He has had to quarterback his team to victory, not manage it.
So let’s say that a player reaches his prime at 27.  From the age of 27 on, Brady is 7-7 in the playoffs with two Super Bowl appearances and zero wins.  Peyton Manning is 9-8 since turning 27, with two Super Bowls, and one win.  So in their primes, Manning even has a better playoff resume than Brady.  Now what if Brady was to win Sunday, and go on to another Super Bowl?  Would that change how I look at the two?  The simple answer is no.
At some point, we need to stop judging the ultimate team sport where the most players have a say in the game by one single position.  It is definitly the most important and difficult spot to play in all of sports, but quarterbacks should not be solely judged by wins and losses.  This goes hand in hand with the ignorant theory of being “clutch”.  If I was to ask you who is the most “clutch” athlete in the history of sports, who would be your first choice?  Most people think Michael Jordan, who hit 25 game-winning shots over his NBA career.  His percentage on such shots?  41%, or right below his average for the rest of the game.  So in theory, Michael Jordan was worse shooting the last shot of the game than he was in the first 47 and a half minutes.  Another prime example is Kobe Bryant, who has made just 14 of his last 56 game winning shot opportunities. 
Taking it over to football, Manning and Brady each had multiple games this season where a score could win the game yet they threw an interception to lose it.  To think that a player suddenly plays harder or something because it is the last drive as opposed to the first drive of the game is ludicrous.  They try their hardest to score every single time they get the ball.  The numbers don’t lie: both quarterbacks convert game-winning drives at a similar rate to every other drive.  So to say that Brady is more “clutch” than Manning, and that is why he is better is illogical.  It is just a point that some clown on ESPN said because he was too lazy to look at the actual statistics and trends.
With that said, I think we do need to buy in to the ESPN hype for this game.  I mean, how many times are we ever going to be able to watch arguably the best two palyers ever at a position face off under such circumstances?  In the previous high leverage matchups between these two, their legacy was not as certain just yet.  So let us not worry about what the game means to each individual quarterback, and just watch/appreciate the greatness that we are lucky enough to see. 
Some quick stats/trends for Championship weekend:
·         For only the 4th time in the past twenty NFL seasons do we have both top seeds in each conference in their respective championship games.  In each one of the previous occurences, one of the top seeds and one of the second seeds moved on to the Super Bowl.  In fact, only once (2003, Saints/Colts) in that time frame has there been an all-top-seed Super Bowl. 
·         A team that scores 40 points in a playoff game (Patriots) is just 4-22 against the spread in the game immediately after in the same season.
·         Peyton Manning has not lost to the same team twice in a season in the past six years.
·         Russell Wilson has lost just one home game since his sophmore year at North Carolina State.
·         This is the first time that the Patriots have been an underdog in a playoff game since 2006… when they lost to Manning’s Colts in the AFC Championship game.
·         The 49ers/Seahawks have gone under 36 in their last 5 meetings
·         San Francisco has played only one home game since December 8th, yet are still on an 8-game winning streak.

Patriots +6 over BRONCOS
This line started at 7, went down to 4.5, now has been bet back up to 6.  I know that it goes against everything I just wrote about my man-crush on Peyton Manning, but I trust Bill Belichick more than John Fox.  Blount has been a monster the past month and the Broncos’ defense is missing just as much as the New England’s unit.  The Patriots will use the Giants’ plan of attack against them in their two Super Bowl matchups to get to Peyton at all costs with their pass rush while running the ball down Denver’s throat.
49ers +3.5 over SEAHAWKS
Once again, Colin Kaepernick gets too much credit for his team’s dominant win.  Kaep definitely will owe Michael Crabtree a tip once he gets his big contract, because Crabtree bails out his horrendous throws time and again to keep drives alive.  The San Francisco defense is playing with more confidance after their destruction of Carolina’s short-yardage game and they are certainly not scared of Beast Mode.  I think all the talk of the home-field advantage has turned into a rally point for the 49ers and they keep it within a field goal for sure.

Parlay of the Week:
Patriots moneyline +200 with Seahawks moneyline of -190: $100 bet returns $352.  Should the Patriots win, you can then hedge with the 49eres at +3.5 and have a nice middle to get a huge return.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Not many options, but if I had to choose I’d go with Patriots +15.5, 49ers +13.5, 49ers/Seahawks UNDER 49.5

Last Week: 2-2
Playoffs: 4-3-1
Overall: 139-117-8

Friday, January 10, 2014

College Football Playoff and NFL Divisional Round Picks

After the second best championship game in any sport that I have witnessed (UT over USC is near impossible to top), the BCS seemed to have “gotten it right” in its last go around.  Some may argue that a Michigan State team with a single 4-point loss and every other win by double-digits was the second best team, but nevertheless the Seminoles had the best season as well as fielded the best all-around team. 
While the BCS’ job in its last year may have seemed easy, the new College Football Playoff would have had one of the toughest decisions of any season (had it been in effect) in recent memory.  The CFP’s responsibility is to have its committee select the top four teams in a seeded, single-elimination tournament.  After the dust had settled from the conference championships, the consensus top-3 teams for a theoretical tournament were Florida State, Auburn, and Alabama.  The fourth team was a wild card in itself between Stanford, Michigan State, and Baylor.  The committee would have chosen Stanford as the last team in, and would their selection have been the correct one?
I know that hindsight is always 20/20, and it is impossible to tell the future.  However, if we cannot learn from what could have been as to what actually happened, then the correct decision will not be made.  In this instance, the two “wild card” teams Alabama and Stanford promptly went and were defeated by one team (Oklahoma) that had no business in the discussion, and another team (Michigan State) that was the last team out.  The next team out after the Spartans, Baylor, also was soundly defeated, except by a team (UCF) that was not even in the conversation even though they probably should have been.  What does this all mean?
As college football fans and analysts, our minds carry bias over: whether it is from season to season, game to game, or even team to team within a conference.  An SEC fan is going to think his team played the hardest schedule while a Big XII fan will argue for his own.  It also carries over to the ESPN bloggers and such because if you look at their inter-conference predictions they tend to be more upset minded with their own conference.  With that in mind, the selection of the four CFP teams should try to be made with the least amount of subjectivity and prejudice, while sticking to factual theories.  That is why I have come to the realization that only conference champions should be allowed in the playoff, as it is set at 4 teams (I do agree that it should be 8 teams, at which point this argument becomes unnecessary, but that is for another day).
                This is where the Aggies, Razorbacks, and Crimson Tiders start shouting about the SEC’s “dominance” and such.  Yes, the conference has dominated the title game; I am not trying to argue that they have had the majority of the best overall teams the past 8 years.  What people don’t realize is that the second SEC team in a BCS bowl is a paltry 3-5 over that stretch, including an 0-5 record against teams currently in the power-five conferences.  Think about that: the second team from the SEC that would have gotten into the CFP failed to beat a team that (in almost every occasion) was not even in the discussion of the top-4.  Moreover, in general, the SEC was 3-6 against teams in BCS games overall against the Big XII, ACC and Pac-12.  So what is this telling us?
                What I am trying to say is that while the conference has been the best, it is not nearly as overly dominant as perceived.  Take this year for example: we would have seen an Iron Bowl rematch in the semifinal of the CFP, and left a deserving Michigan State team out of it completely.  After the bowls, it is plain to see that the Spartans have every right to be a part of the tournament, while Alabama was beaten by two touchdowns (if someone wants to argue that you can’t judge this by bowl wins/losses, let me remind you that those wins are exactly why you are arguing for the SEC’s dominance).  What this really means, is that it is impossible to tell the best team in the country without giving each team its fair shot.  The second place SEC team controlled its own destiny: it either lost in the SEC Championship or to the eventual winner during the regular season.  Why should they get a second chance and other teams should get none at all? 
                This harkens back to 2011 when Alabama beat LSU in an All-SEC BCS Championship Game.  This was the absolute low-point of the BCS to me.  The whole slogan for the system was that “every game matters” and people preach that about college football and how it has the best regular season since every game matters so much.  You know, except for the game in which LSU beats Alabama, IN Alabama, but still had to play them again in the title game.  That game made the whole system a complete farce: the two teams very well could have been the best two in the country, but who the hell could know that if they don’t play anyone else?  What was decided and settled on the field with absolutely no partisanship or discrepancy?  LSU winning against the Tide and earning its right to the final game.  I mean, do we not remember what started the SEC’s streak?  The BCS barely popping Florida ahead of Michigan in what would have been the same rematch scenario: both teams are thought to be the best, but if they would have played again, Florida never would have gotten a chance.
                So that leaves us with the conundrum of picking four of the five conference champions.  Some years, like this season, it will be quite easy: the Big XII beat each other out of contention, so Florida State, Auburn, Michigan State and Stanford (by virtue of much better wins than any of the Big XII teams, although all of a sudden Baylor’s thrashing of OU made it look a lot better but the loss to UCF worse) are in the playoff.  Other years it might be tougher deciding between a couple of one-loss champions for the last spot, and hopefully that scenario would lead to an 8-team playoff.  To show that this is not some “the world against the SEC” theory, I am a Big XII team’s fan and openly admit that no one deserved to be in the top-4 this season.  Just as in some past years there were probably two or even three of the top-4 teams in the nation within the conference, but only the top one would move forward.  It is the only fair and logical way.
While this rule may leave the second best team out of the tournament should they lose their conference to the best team, it would almost assuredly include the best team since conference strength changes so much.  That’s the real kicker with college football: each team is at least 25% different year to year.  It is impossible to know the strength of the teams between conferences until the best of each plays each other.  To assure that each team is given a proper chance, only one team per conference should be allowed in. 
Will this happen?  Almost assuredly no, because the powers at be do not want to anger the money-maker programs that will usually qualify as this wild card team.  So could two SEC teams get in next season, and meet each other in the championship game?  Yes, I could see this happening, but honestly I think it is more likely a repeat of this season, where two would get in and neither win a post-season game.  Hopefully then, the committee and NCAA will look at the situation with no prior preconceived notion and just facts.
SEAHAWKS -8 over Saints
This line is one of the hardest I have seen in a while.  I do not think that the Saints can win the game in Seattle, but their backdoor cover potential is so high in a playoff game.  Since 2004 there has been one massive upset of a more than a touchdown favorite in the division round every year except one.  This is the popular pick for that to happen this year, but Seattle is just too solid at home.  I’ll take the Seahawks and their defense to make a play late to preserve the cover.
PATRIOTS -7 over Colts
Anything more than 7 (where it started this week) and I would be a little more fearful, but right at a touchdown I like New England.  This is also a popular upset pick as people start telling the future legend of Andrew Luck and how he slew Tom Brady in Foxborough.  Lest we forget that even Peyton did not make it to the AFC Championship game until his 6th season, and did not beat Brady in the playoffs until his 9th.  Suddenly, the Patriots are the “favorite-dog” as in everyone thinks they are too injured and old to beat this young, upstart Indy team.  That seems just the spot that Brady and Belichick thrive.
PANTHERS +1 over 49ers
Do you want to know how many home underdogs have lost in the divisional round in the past 12 years?  That number would be zero.  There are not that many instances, but I cannot buck a trend like that.  I also think that Collin Kaepernick is getting entirely too much credit for his performance last week.  I mean, he threw would what have been a game-ending pick-six directly at the Green Bay corner, who just flat out dropped it.  If that was Tony Romo I am 100% sure he catches it, returns it for a touchdown, and breaks Romo’s arm or something on the way.  Somehow Kaepernick got lucky yet again, but at some point it will run out.
BRONCOS -9 over Chargers
Last week I was all over San Diego and if I had not been so stubborn about my pre-season pick I would have picked them to win.  Nevertheless, for all of the same reasons I picked them to beat Cincy, I will pick them to get throttled by Denver.  I mean do we really think Peyton will get befuddled by the same defense twice within a month and a half?  Let alone can San Diego shut Denver below 30 for the THIRD time this season?  I think it will be a shootout, and I will always take this Broncos team in a game that creeps toward 100. 
Since I was stubborn about the Packers and Bengals, I know switch my Super Bowl pick to the Patriots versus the Seahawks.  Lock it in.  Until one loses this weekend.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Broncos/Chargers OVER 42.5, Patriots +3, Panthers +11

Last Week: 2-1-1
Overall: 137-115-8

Saturday, January 4, 2014

Wild Card Round Picks

After an awful close to the season, let’s look at some playoff picks!

COLTS +1.5 over Chiefs
I thought this line would be closer to 7 rather than just a field goal.  That makes it a candidate for a sucker bet, but I cannot get over the quality of teams that these two have beaten.  Kansas City has one single win over a playoff team and it was Philadelphia before they really got going.  The Colts have beaten the three Super Bowl favorites.  I just think Andrew Luck comes to play and takes a leap toward super-stardom.  I also just saw that this line has flipped all the way towards KC.  So do you really want to bet against that much heavy action on the Chiefs?
EAGLES-2.5 over Saints
Bill Barnwell broke it down on Grantland, and the Drew Brees-outdoors theory is really overblown.  The difference is not significantly more than any other quarterback on the road, it just gets reiterated again and again because of how great Brees is at home.  With that said, this seems like a sucker bet.  I mean, did you see what Jason Witten did to the Eagles’ linebackers last week?  It was the best game of his season.  Now, Jimmy Graham gets to attack that weakness?  What about the quarterback matchup?  Basically a rookie in Foles against a future Hall of Famer with a Super Bowl ring?  Then there are the head coaches: a rookie head coach who was coaching the Fiesta Bowl last season at this time against the best offensive mind in the league, who has also won a Super Bowl.  Yet, the Eagles are favored?  Sucker. Bet.  I’ll take Philly.
Chargers +7 over BENGALS
The Chargers did not lose by more than 10 all year long, and if I am going to give a touchdown, to win the bet the odds say that you will have to win by 10 or more (simply because the likelihood of an 8 or 9 point difference is so much rarer).  In all honesty, I think this is a toss-up game, decided by the last drive.  The Chargers defense is seen as its weakness: I’ve seen many talking heads say that it is the worst unit overall in the playoffs.  You know, the defense that has not given up more than 24 points since November, and held the Broncos under 30 TWICE.  I think they step up and keep this game close, and I trust Phillip Rivers a little bit more than Andy Dalton.  I also think Keenan Allen is the real deal and will offset the advantage brought by A.J. Green. 
PACKERS +3 over 49ers
73 percent of all action in Vegas is on San Francisco.  Before I knew that, I loved Green Bay here, I loved the home-underdog, I loved the quarterback matchup, and I loved the Lambeau temperature.  Now, would I really want to bet against Vegas that much in a playoff game where the amount of money is 4 or 5 times greater than a normal game?  I still think Rodgers is the best player on the planet, right now.  Yes I know Peyton just had the greatest season ever, but he also plays under different circumstances.  Rodgers mobility combined with his swagger leads me to believe in him more than the punk that is Collin Kaepernick. 

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Packers +13, Chargers +17, Chiefs/Colts OVER 35

Playoff Predictions:
Wild Card:
Packers over 49ers, Eagles over Saints; Colts over Chiefs, Bengals over Chargers
Divisional:
Packers over Seahawks, Panthers over Eagles; Broncos over Colts, Bengals over Patriots
Championship Games:
Packers over Panthers, Bengals over Broncos
Super Bowl:
Packers over Bengals
As much as I do not like Cincinnati to cover tomorrow, I will stay true and firm to my preseason picks.  Should the Bengals have Geno Atkins and Leon Hall I would feel a lot better about it, and should they lose tomorrow I would say they would be replaced by New England.

Last Week: 6-10

Overall: 135-114-7