Friday, September 30, 2016

NFL Week 4 Picks

Last week was another profitable week for your boy as well as The Opposite Theory. My picks were five games above .500 while TOT eked out one game above even.
Either way, we are making money and TOT is strong. I’m a few more weeks of sample size from adding to TOT with some other factors, but I will get to those when they are ready.

Dolphins +7.5 over BENGALS
I had no feel for this game, so I just took the points and it backfired.

JAGUARS +3 over Colts
Jacksonville is technically the home team but this game is being played in London. These games are always finicky, as you never know how a team will make the long trip. I will take the points in what is a must-win for the Jaguars.

REDSKINS -7 over Browns
Cleveland was able to get by last week with Cody Kessler but I think that the initial emotion runs out. Throw in the Josh Gordon drama off the field, and I think Washington puts together back to back wins.

PATRIOTS -7 over Bills
This is the only line I could find, as the quarterback situation in New England is still a mystery. I’ve gotten to the point that I am taking Bill Belichick every week until otherwise noted.

JETS +3 over Seahawks
This is our first TOT game of the week as well as a home underdog. I also think something is not right with Russell Wilson’s ankle, and there is no way that the Jets can play as bad as they did offensively last week.

Panthers -3 over FALCONS
Carolina was absolutely blown out last week in a shocking turn of events. Atlanta had a huge road, division win and with a short week I think they are affected. Give me Cam Newton to show out in a rare TOT game for his team.

BEARS +3 over Lions
There are technically six home underdogs this week, and I’m taking the majority of them. Chicago looked terrible against Dallas. Brian Hoyer put up decent numbers, but most were in garbage time. Detroit has looked decent through the first few weeks, yet can’t get over the hump. I think that Jordan Howard rejuvenates the Bears offense and they get the upset.

Titans +4.5 over TEXANS
J.J. Watt has the most affect on a spread of any non-quarterback in football. This line moved a clear three points after he was announced out. I think this deflates the Texans and Jadaveon Clowney is just not ready to lead their defense.

RAVENS -3 over Raiders
Pretty much every pundit is saying that Baltimore is a fool’s gold 3-0 because of their schedule. You know what though, every year a team ends up in the playoffs because of an easier schedule. It’s not like the Ravens don’t have a recent pedigree of success or anything. I think everyone is sleeping on them and hoping that their pre-season darling Raiders show up. I am going the other way with it.

BUCCANEERS +3 over Broncos
Tampa Bay has looked terrible two weeks in a row while the Broncos have been somewhat dominant through all three games. I think both streaks end in this TOT game. Jameis puts up big numbers against a tough defense and gets his team a much-needed win.

49ERS +3 over Cowboys
Home underdog, with a TOT game, and a rookie quarterback on the road? I think I will go with the trends and not buy into the Dak Attack completely just yet.

CHARGERS -4 over Saints
New Orleans looks to be headed towards the Top-5 of the draft. They needed to be able to beat Atlanta at home, but they sit at 0-3 as they travel across the country to San Diego where Philip Rivers keeps turning lemons into lemonade.

CARDINALS -8 over Rams
Arizona has single-handedly killed more survivor pools than almost all the other teams combined this season. They will be heavily used again and I think they pull out the massive win. I mean, is Los Angeles a 3-1 team? Is Arizona a 1-3 team? I think the answer is no to both, and sprinkled a little TOT in while the Cardinals win by three touchdowns.

STEELERS -5 over Chiefs
Pittsburgh was completely embarrassed last weekend by a rookie quarterback. Not only did their defense get torn apart by Carson Wentz, but the offense could not even reach the end zone. I think Le’Veon Bell provides the spark they need in this TOT game.

Giants +5 over VIKINGS
This is a toss-up game to me. Minnesota is 3-0, but I just can’t see them as a 12+ win team. Meaning they will likely lose a couple of games in the next few weeks. Even if they pull out the win, I will take the value in New York and the points, along with TOT.

Best Bets: 5-4
Steelers -5, Chargers/Saints OVER 52.5, Panthers -3

10-Point Teaser of the Week: 8-1
Steelers +5, Chargers/Saints OVER 42.5, 49ers +13

Others I Like: 18-0
Redskins/Browns OVER 37, Redskins +3, Cardinals +2, Ravens/Raiders OVER 36, Buccaneers +13, Titans +14.5


This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 10-5-1
Overall: 29-18-1
TOT: 11-5-1

Friday, September 23, 2016

NFL Week 3 Picks

Week 2 was very profitable for both The Opposite Theory as well as me. TOT and myself each finished five units up, which in a single week at $100 a game is nearly a $500 profit after vig.
This week there are a few massive lines, a few home underdogs, and many rookie quarterbacks starting. Don’t always bet against the rookie signal caller. The line is already adjusted for them, usually.
Nevertheless, let’s get to picking.
WEEK 3 PICKS
Texans PK over PATRIOTS
Like I just said, the line is already adjusted enough. Can we talk about how the Patriots are now 14-5 without Brady since his first start? When will people start to realize that Belichick is more responsible for New England’s success rather than Brady?
BENGALS -3 over Broncos
The first TOT game of the week, and I like the Bengals anyway. Cincinnati is 19-4-1 in their last 24 home games straight up. They are coming off back-to-back road games against probable playoff teams. They also need this game more than the 2-0 Broncos.
Raiders PK over TITANS
TOT game number 2. There will definitely be games that I won’t be a slave to the theory, but in the beginning of the season I think it is strongest. Throw in the fact that neither of these defenses are that good, and I think Oakland’s offense has more firepower.
BILLS +3.5 over Cardinals
TOT. Home Dog. West coast team traveling and playing at noon. Too many theories to go against the Bills. I love the hook, and will probably buy it to 4.
JAGUARS +1 over Ravens
Baltimore is 2-0 and Jacksonville is 0-2. That is the reason for the line being this way. If this was the first game of the year, I would say Jacksonville is a 3-point favorite. Baltimore has beaten possibly the two worst teams in the league, while Jacksonville has lost to two of the best offenses. Sprinkle a little TOT game into it and I love the Jags this week.
Browns +10 over DOLPHINS
Miami looked pretty bad last week against New England until Garapollo was injured. Now I know Cody Kessler does not invoke fear into defenses’ hearts, but I think Isaiah Crowell will ground and pound this game into a slug fest that stays close.
Redskins +3.5 over GIANTS

Are the Giants a 3-0 quality team? Will Kirk Cousins miss as many wide open receivers as he has the first two games? I’m not sure about either one, but I can see them continuing. However, there are just some games that teams NEED more than others. If Washington loses, they will be 0-3 and in effect 4 games behind the Giants three weeks into the season. It’s the closest thing to a must win in Week 3.
PACKERS -7 over Lions
Ever since the wild and crazy Week 17 game in which Matt Stafford threw for 520 yards against the Matt Flynn-led Packers, Stafford has not reached the 266-yard mark in Green Bay. Throw in the fact that everyone is knee-jerking over the Packers not looking too strong in the first couple of weeks, and I think Aaron Rodgers shuts everyone up.
Vikings +7 over PANTHERS
I doubted the Vikings the first two weeks and refuse to keep doing it. Mike Zimmer and Norv Turner have found the type of game plan to utilize Sam Bradford in an efficient and proficient way. Even with no Adrian Peterson (DAMN YOU FANTASY GODS!!!!!) they will find a way to compete.
SEAHAWKS -9.5 over 49ers
As competent as Blaine Gabbert has been I just refuse to take him IN Seattle. Can’t do it.
BUCCANEERS -5.5 over Rams
This game is the epitome of The Opposite Theory. The Bucs got destroyed by Arizona last week, but there were a lot of unlucky bounces. Los Angeles pulled out the upset over Seattle in their first regular season game in LA since 1994. I think the emotion and circumstance, along with a couple of timely fumbles helped the Rams. Tampa is just a better team, by at least a touchdown at home.
EAGLES +3.5 over Steelers
I hate how strong Carson Wentz has started. Honestly, it should have been easy to know: Cleveland passed on him. If the Browns take a QB, he will bust. If they pass on him (Ben Roethlisberger, Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, etc.) they end up being good. This feels like a high-scoring, last possession game, so I’ll take the points.
CHIEFS -3 over Jets

Kansas City qualifies for TOT after losing to Houston last week. A hobbled Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte coming off of a career high in carries and touches, and Arrowhead rocking all strengthen TOT for this game.
COLTS -2 over Chargers
We have another TOT game, but this is similar to Washington’s situation. Indy has to win this game to stay out of an 0-3 hole. At some point the skill position injuries will slow down San Diego (DAMN YOU FANTASY GODS!!!!!!!! I have one team that has Adrian Peterson, Keenan Allen, and Danny Woodhead).
Bears +7.5 over COWBOYS
In our 7th and last TOT game of the week, I’m going with the backup quarterback in Dallas. The Cowboys have a losing record at home since The Death Star opened, and a winning record on the road. Part of the problem is a 2-12 home record without Tony Romo. Brian Hoyer is not much of a downgrade from Jay Cutler, and I think the Bears keep this a one score game.
Falcons +3.5 over SAINTS
This is one of those games where zero defense will be played. I think it will be similar to the Texas Tech/Texas game of last season, where it will be a last score game. Give me the points.

Best Bets: 3-3
Falcons/Saints OVER 53, Buccaneers -5.5, and Raiders PK

10-Point Teaser of the Week: 5-1
Saints/Falcons OVER 43, Bears +17, Browns +20

Others I Like: 12-0
Raiders +10, Jaguars +11, Chiefs +7, Seahawks/49ers UNDER 52, Raiders/Titans OVER 36.5, Packers +3

This Week : 0-1
Last Week : 10-5-1
Season : 19-13-1

TOT : 7-2


Friday, September 16, 2016

NFL Week 2 Picks

A nice, solid, start to the season as I finished 9-7 against the spread, and all nine of my teaser options hit. I had the Jets last night in my Twitter pick so I have a decent profit to start the season.

This will be the first week we look at The Opposite Theory that I came up with a couple of years ago. Basically, if a team that didn’t cover the spread the week before is playing a team that did, take the team that didn’t cover.

This is especially true in Week 2 with the knee jerk reactions across the league. You will hear that stat that around only 10% of teams that start 0-2 make the playoffs. Only 37 % of teams in the league make the playoffs to begin with, so it is not exactly a doomsday scenario.

Hell, just last year, Houston and Seattle started 0-2 yet both made the playoffs. That’s almost a fifth of the entire playoff bracket last year that started 0-2.

Anyway, I digress. Week 2 is the time to find that over-reaction value. As always, remember: Vegas is not predicting the score of the game; they are trying to get 50% of bets on either side.

Jets +1 over BILLS
My Thursday night Twitter pick. Follow me at @Tomlin3 each week to get the Thursday night picks.

Titans +6 over LIONS
This is the first The Opposite Theory game of the year! I’ve thought about changing it to “Zig-Zag” or “Every Other”, but for some reason I like TOT’s.

TEXANS -2 over Chiefs
Kansas City had to get extremely lucky to get out with a win against the Chargers last week. If not for Keenan Allen’s injury (damn you Fantasy Gods!!!) then San Diego wins that game. I think Houston rides the Lamar Miller train this week, and he will be the top Fantasy back of the week.

Dolphins +7 over PATRIOTS
Jimmy Garoppolo and Bill Belichick were able to fool Arizona last week, but I think the pumpkin turns to midnight this weekend. To think that a guy getting his second start ever, without (or with a hobbled) his best target, and their top back is hurt is giving a touchdown.  Miami actually looked solid last week and I think Arian Foster gives them their money’s worth this week.

BROWNS +7 over Ravens
The Opposite Theory game number 2! Along with a new theory: if any NFL team is GETTING a touchdown at HOME, you take them. Don’t worry about Josh McCown playing quarterback, or the awful defense/rushing game/coaching. Go with the trend.

Bengals +3 over STEELERS
The Opposite Theory game number 3! Cincinnati did not cover in their win over the Jets, which actually looks more impressive after last night’s showing. Pittsburgh destroyed the Redskins, which we might see as not as impressive after the next couple of weeks. A.J. Green looks like a man on a mission and I think he out-points Antonio Brown.

WASHINGTON -3 over Cowboys
Neither team covered so there is not TOT here. Jerry Jones and Dak Prescott have both put the onus on getting the ball to Dez, and Josh Norman has been grilled all week about getting torched last weekend. This is a bad combination.

GIANTS -4.5 over Saints
Technically the Giants pushed last weekend so I’m not counting this as a TOT game. Either way, I think Odell Beckham breaks out of his hibernation from last weekend and there’s nothing that Drew Brees and Brandin Cooks can do to keep up.

49ers +14 over PANTHERS
Normally, this would classify as a TOT game, but when TWO TOUCHDOWNS are being given, I can’t pass them up. San Francisco looked decent enough in their 28-0 win over Los Angeles to keep this game close. Although Cam Newton is 29-14 against the spread at home, I have to take two touchdowns in ANY NFL game.

CARDINALS -7 over Buccaneers
This is TOT game number 4, but it might cause an addendum to the rule. Some times a team is just running hot against a team that is in a trench. If the spread is a touchdown or more you should probably take the value. I will stick to my guns with the TOT, HOWEVER, I think this game might change my thinking on the logistics of the theory.

Colts +7 over BRONCOS
There’s a lot of touchdown+ spreads this weekend as well as another TOT game. Indianapolis was undone by their ability to cover the opposing running backs and I don’t have faith that C.J. Anderson can put solid games together back-to-back. Andrew Luck withstands the assault of the Denver defense and pulls out the upset.

Falcons +4.5 over RAIDERS
Two things we will realize after the next couple of weeks: New Orleans is not that good, and Tampa Bay is pretty good. Those two soon-to-be facts will make you think this game should be closer to a “Pick ‘em”, which means value on Atlanta. Throw in TOT and the Falcons are the pick to go with. If you don’t already have Tevin Coleman on your Fantasy Team, get him now. He will outscore Freeman by the need of the year.

RAMS +7 over Seahawks
The Opposite Theory. Touchdown+ underdog. Home underdog. Touchdown+ underdog at home. Every trend is in Los Angeles’ favor, plus the fact that Russell Wilson is not 100%. This is a game you bet the Rams and don’t even pay attention to as your hope the trends hold up.

CHARGERS -3 over Jaguars
Both of these teams covered by the majority of books (although some had them failing to) last week, however both lost their game. San Diego is just not the same team without Keenan Allen in the lineup, but I suspect they cook up some Danny Woodhead stuff mixed with a sprinkle of Travis Benjamin to keep the offensive firepower alive for at least one week.

VIKINGS +3 over Packers
Because of the ambiguity of the line with the Packers/Jaguars game last week, I’m not willing to call this a TOT game since Green Bay won. Now everything points to the Packers: Aaron Rodgers; Aaron Rodgers in Prime Time; Aaron Rodgers against a spare quarterback; Sam Bradford in his first start with the team. With all that said, shouldn’t they be more than a field goal favorite? I think this is the sucker bet of the week, as people line up to take A-Rodg and Vegas knows that the Vikings are better than they are getting credit for.

BEARS -3 over Eagles
Carson Wentz on the road for the first time going against The Opposite Theory? Give me some of that! Chicago was actually leading and controlling that game on the road against the Texans last week and their own mistakes did them in. Philadelphia will have a much harder time against a Bears’ team that is significantly better than Cleveland. Give me the home team.

Best Bets of the Week:
Washington -3, Vikings +3, Saints/Giants OVER 53

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Washington +7, Saints/Giants OVER 43, 49ers +24

Others I Like:
Rams +17, Titans +16, Bengals +13, Falcons +14.5, Washington/Cowboys OVER 35, and Texans/Chiefs UNDER 58

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 9-7

Overall: 10-7

Friday, September 9, 2016

NFL Week 1 Picks and Pre-Season Predictions

And I’m back!! I know it hit a lull last season with my picks, but I promise to update each week this season. I took on a Senior writing position at So-Called Fantasy Experts and you can view all of my Fantasy Football advice here.

I will have three weekly articles: RB rankings reactions, Start/Sit, and a Sunday morning game preview. Please check them out each week.

This space will be strictly for gambling purposes. I will give you my picks for every NFL game against the spread, along with a best bet and a teaser. I’ll also give you some pre-season predictions, because I mean who doesn’t love those?

Let’s get started shall we!

AFC

East
Wins
Losses
New England
11
5
N.Y. Jets
8
8
Buffalo
7
9
Miami
6
10

Even with Brady’s suspension, the rest of the division is just not good enough. The Jets played about as well as they could last season, and still couldn’t touch the Patriots. They bring the same team back and are due for some regression.

Tyrod Taylor might have something, but the defense has taken a step back. I had a lot of Ryan Tannehill shares in Fantasy Football last season that all went to waste.

North
Wins
Losses
Pittsburgh
11
5
Cincinnati
9
7
Baltimore
9
7
Cleveland
4
12

As it is every year, the AFC North is the hardest division to predict. I am going with the Steelers because I think the Hue Jackson loss will hurt the Bengals more than people think. Pittsburgh still has easily the best QB, RB, and WR in the division, and their defense has gotten slightly better.

I think Baltimore bounces back, but not quite enough to make the playoffs. Cleveland’s offense will be Fantasy worthy this season, but their defense is still trash.
South
Wins
Losses
Indianapolis
9
7
Houston
9
7
Jacksonville
7
9
Tennessee
5
11

This could sway very easily if Andrew Luck cannot stay on the field again. If he does, I think they edge out the Texans for the division title. Jacksonville is lurking, but I think they are a year away from their defense being ready.

Tennessee’s exotic smash-mouth will be worth watching and betting the under on. However, the same theme as the last few teams their defense is not strong enough to really contend.

West
Wins
Losses
Chiefs
9
7
Broncos
9
7
Raiders
8
8
Chargers
6
10

Even with the win last night, I'm thinking Kansas City pulls out the division. The quarterback issues will be there for Denver.  Oakland will knock on the door of the post-season, but come up just short.

NFC

East
Wins
Losses
Giants
9
7
Redskins
8
8
Cowboys
8
8
Eagles
5
11

This division race could be decided in the first week of the season. If Dak Prescott and the Cowboys can pull out the win Sunday, then I think they end up as the division champs by way of an easy schedule. I don’t think that will happen though, so I’m siding with the Giants by default.

Kirk Cousins is not that good, and he will be found out this season. I have said this before about other quarterbacks such as Robert Griffin and Collin Kaepernick, so I think I’ll make the trifecta. The Eagles still suck and start Carson Wentz.

North
Wins
Losses
Packers
12
4
Lions
8
8
Vikings
8
8
Bears
6
10

Probably the easiest division to predict, even before Bridgewater’s injury. None of these teams can match up with a full-strength Packers’ squad, and even with the massive injuries last year Green Bay was really the best team.

I think Detroit will be better this season. Megatron will not be missed as much with Marvin Jones coming over and Matthew Stafford should be a better quarterback not focusing in on Calvin Johnson non-stop. Chicago just signed their whole offensive line off of cuts, so Jay Cutler will need a body bag.

South
Wins
Losses
Panthers
11
5
Falcons
8
8
Buccaneers
7
9
Saints
7
9

The Falcons were one of my surprise teams last year and they came out the gate firing. The problem I didn’t forsee is just how awful their defense was. They are still a wild card contender, due to the quarterback injuries with other teams.

The Buccaneers are a year away, and might have been closer had they not taken a kicker in the second round that has the yips. Drew Brees will drag the Saints to 6-7 wins, but no more.

West
Wins
Losses
Seahawks
11
5
Cardinals
11
5
Rams
7
9
49ers
3
13

Everrryyonnnnee is in on the Cardinals this year, which leads me to think Seattle will win the division. Carson Palmer was absolutely awful last year in that playoff game, and he’s not certain to come back mentally from that. The Seahawks found something with their high-flying passing offense at the end of last season, and I think they continue.

The Rams look to be mediocre as always after they drafted a quarterback first overall that can’t even play his way into the backup role. The 49ers are probably the least talented and worst team in the league. Enter Deshaun Watson.

Playoffs
Wild Card
Indianapolis over Cincinnati, Kansas City over Denver
Arizona over N.Y. Giants, Carolina over Detroit

Divisional
New England over Indianapolis, Pittsburgh over Kansas City
Green Bay over Arizona, Seattle over Carolina

Conference Championships
Pittsburgh over New England
Green Bay over Seattle

Super Bowl LI
Green Bay 27 – Pittsburgh 21

Super Bowl MVP
Aaron Rodgers

Regular Season MVP
Aaron Rodgers

Offensive Rookie of the Year
Ezekiel Elliott

Defensive Rookie of the Year
Myles Jack


Week 1 Picks

Panthers -3 over BRONCOS
I gave out this pick last night to start my season on a losing note! But I will usually Tweet my Thursday pick, so follow me for it, @Tomlin3 .

Buccaneers +2.5 over FALCONS
Jameis starts the year strong against the terrible Falcons’ defense.

TITANS +2.5 over Vikings
I’ll take a home dog against a backup quarterback.

Browns +3.5 over EAGLES
RG3 against Carson Wentz… I’ll take the points.

JETS +2.5 over Bengals
The absence of Hue Jackson will take Cincy some getting used to.

Raiders +1.5 over SAINTS
Oakland is just a flat-out better team than New Orleans, and this line should be switched.

Chargers +7 over CHIEFS
I like Kansas City this year, but that’s too many points for back-door cover Philip Rivers.

Bills +3 over RAVENS
The questions in the Baltimore backfield have me worried to start the year, but it will get figured out.

Bears +6 over TEXANS
This line just feels a few points too high. It should be a low-scoring game, so I’ll take the value.

JAGUARS +5 over Packers
Blake Bortles is king of the garbage time, and I think he sneaks in a cover here.

Dolphins +10 over SEAHAWKS
This feels like that Week 1 game that could kill thousands of elimination/survivor pools.

COWBOYS PK over Giants
In Dak we trust…. I think.

Lions +3 over COLTS
I have the Lions contending for a playoff spot, and this would be a huge win towards that.

Patriots +7 over CARDINALS
I’ll take points with Bill Belichick no matter who is playing quarterback.

REDSKINS +3 over Steelers
I don’t think Washington will be that great, but the Steelers will not be in top form for a few weeks.

49ERS +2.5 over Rams
I’m not sure that Los Angeles should be a road favorite over anyone with their quarterbacks.

10-Point Teaser of the Week: Seahawks PK, Saints/Raiders OVER 41, Cowboys/Giants OVER 36

Others I Like: Jaguars +15, Texans/Bears UNDER 54, Bears +16, Patriots +17, Chargers +17, Titans/Vikings UNDER 51

Best Bets: Patriots +7, Browns +3.5, Saints/Raiders OVER 51

This Week: 0-1
Season: 0-1