Thursday, July 31, 2014

Big Ten Preview

On the doorstep of August, I thought it would be time to start previewing the upcoming football season.  I figured it would be best to work through the college ranks first, starting with the conference least likely to get a representative in the new playoffs: the Big Ten.
Before I get to the Midwest, I would like to say how exciting it is to have an actual playoff to look forward to.  Is it perfect?  No, it is actually far from an end product.  I think it will ultimately need to be an 8-team bracket with the five conference winners and the next three best teams.  I also think that the BCS should be a factor in deciding the playoff participants… at least more of a factor than someone who has never played, coached, or administrated the game in any sort of way (I’m looking at you Condoleezza Rice).  Nevertheless, it is a start and the fifth best team in the nation has much less of an argument for inclusion than the third best team.

Bottom of the Barrel-Neither one of these teams has much hope for a bowl.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 4-8
Purdue Boilermakers, 3-9

The Boilermakers are coming off an awful 1-11 season that included zero wins against FBS teams.  The non-conference schedule has a couple of more easily winnable games, but they get no favors within the Big Ten.  The only conference contests where they have a chance are on the road and Purdue has not won away from home since November 17th, 2012.  While they should be better in in Coach Hazell’s second year with the program, there is not a bowl in the picture just yet.
Rutgers comes over from the AAC and gets thrown right into the fire playing six of the top seven teams in the conference.  They also have a difficult non-conference game to open the season across the country in Seattle against Washington State.  Quarterback Gary Nova is back for his senior year, but he will have to control the ball better (14 interceptions in 10 games last year) against significantly better defenses.

The Logjam-Middle- Don’t expect any of these teams to contend for a conference title.
Nebraska Cornhuskers, 7-5
Northwestern Wildcats, 7-5
Minnesota Golden Gophers, 5-7
Maryland Terrapins, 5-7
Indiana Hoosiers, 5-7
Illinois Fighting Illini, 5-7

These teams are all about the same level of talent and every one of the six could beat each other on the right day.  Illinois will be starting Oklahoma State transfer Wes Lunt at quarterback, and he will have three years of eligibility left.  He brings a more prototypical style of play as opposed the recently graduated Nathan Scheelhaase, but the rest of the team is still a step behind in talent.  There are a couple of attainable conference wins with home games against Purdue and Minnesota, but not much beyond that.
Indiana had one of the surprisingly prolific offenses of 2013, scoring 28 or more points in all but two of their games.  They crossed the 40-point barrier six times, surpassed 50 points twice and put up 73 in their season opener.  The Hoosiers return Nate Sudfield at quarterback who will not have to split snaps for the first time in his career with Tre Roberson transferring.  He will have one of the most explosive backs in the nation next to him in Tevin Coleman.  In Coleman’s sophomore year he nearly had 1,000 yards rushing while averaging a ridiculous 7.3 yards a carry.  With a full workload he could lead the conference in rushing.
Maryland is the other newcomer to the Big Ten and they are giving themselves no favors with a competitive non-conference schedule including South Florida, West Virginia, and Syracuse.  The Terrapins probably have more swing games than any other team in the league with up to 10 games being toss-ups.  C. J. Brown returns behind center and his main goal will be to get the ball to Stefon Diggs as much as possible.  Andre Monroe will lead the defense after posting a double-digit sack total last year.  Maryland may not make a bowl, but Randy Edsell is good for one big upset in a game that no one gives them much of a chance.
Minnesota had an eventful offseason with quarterback Phillip Nelson transferring before getting arrested after a grizzly altercation.  Mitch Leidner looks to have the inside track at quarterback as the only person on the roster with a pass attempt.  Either way, the defense is the strength of the team with Theiran Cockran ready to step out of Ra’Shede Hageman’s shadow.  The 6’6’’ defensive end will be the key cog in a defense that only gave up more than 24 points twice last season. 
I have Northwestern as the first team to make a bowl in this Big Ten preview, but like I said earlier almost any one of the projected 5-win teams could swing the pendulum the other way and switch with the Wildcats.  NU started strong last year getting into the polls before losing seven straight games and becoming ineligible for a bowl.  Quarterback Trevor Siemian ended last season on quite a high note throwing for 414 yards and 4 touchdowns.  He also returns both of his top receivers as well as getting to avoid both Ohio State and Michigan State. 
Nebraska has a weird fluke in their conference schedule where the projected top-4 teams in the conference that they play are all on the road, and the bottom-4 projected teams all go to Lincoln.  In the NFL, that would be good to guarantee your home wins.  However, in college that is a death sentence for high hopes as the home-field advantages are so much stronger.  Taylor Martinez is gone after what seemed like a decade running the Huskers’ offense.  In his place will be Tommy Armstrong Jr., who filled in last year for an injured Martinez and had a 7-1 record as a starter.  Armstrong will have 1,800-yard rusher and amateur hurdler Ameer Abdullah back to help ease the transition.  The defense will be led by DE Randy Gregory who looks to get the famed black-shirts back to their elite level of play. 

The Suspended- This team is prohibited from post-season competition but could spoil other teams’ aspirations
           
Penn State Nittany Lions, 9-3

Penn State is ineligible for post-season play from the Sandusky scandal, and it is a shame that the kids there now are getting punished for what the previous coaching regime did.  James Franklin takes over after turning Vanderbilt around, and he has the likely top quarterback of 2016 Christian Hackenberg starting his sophomore season.  Hackenberg had a strong true freshman season throwing for nearly 3,000 yards, 20 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions.  He ended the season especially convincingly by upsetting Wisconsin (on the road) while throwing for 339 yards and 4 touchdowns.  The Nittany Lions could play spoiler getting both Michigan State and Ohio State at home.

The Outside Playoff Contenders- I do not think any of these teams will make the first playoff, but should one get hot and run the table they would definitely get in.
           
Ohio State Buckeyes, 11-1
Iowa Hawkeyes, 11-1
                             Michigan State Spartans, 10-2
Wisconsin Badgers, 10-2
Michigan Wolverines, 8-4
           
Last year I fell for the Michigan aura and it bit my prediction in the butt.  I thought Devin Gardner was ready to take the leap, yet here we are a year later and he is in a battle to keep his job.  Gardner (or Shane Morris should he win the job) returns Devin Funchess as a huge target with a massive catch radius.  If this Wolverines team is going to make a run it will be based on the strength of their experienced defense.  Jake Ryan runs the D at middle linebacker, and Blake Countess led the conference in interceptions last year as a sophomore.  The real kicker is the schedule:  if Michigan can win in South Bend against Notre Dame, they will almost certainly be 6-0 going into a home game against Penn St. and a road game at Michigan St. … But I’m not falling for that again.  Give me 8 wins with an awfully ugly loss to get them to 8-4.
            Wisconsin loves the new division split, as they draw the two new teams, Maryland and Rutgers from the East Division.  That means they avoid Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State and Michigan.  They do open the season against LSU and it is in Houston making it basically an LSU home game.  I do not think that they can pull that one off, but if they do they could be a dangerous bet to run the table.  Melvin Gordon is back and by himself in the backfield after gaining over 1,600 yards on the ground last year with an outrageous 8.1 yards per carry.  The defense is as strong as always, and Joel Stave knows how to protect the ball and get it to his running backs. 
            Michigan State is probably the best team in the conference, but they just happen to have the hardest schedule.  A road trip to Eugene to face Oregon seems almost too daunting of an early-season task to overcome.  They get Ohio State at home, but have to go to Happy Valley to end the season against Penn St.  The Spartans do return the best defense north of the Gulf Coast states, with future NFL players on every level including Shilique Calhoun (3 defensive TD’s last season) rushing the passer, and Trae Waynes and Kurtis Drummond ball hawking in the secondary.  On offense, both Connor Cook (2,755 yards, 22 TD, 6 INT in 2013) and Jeremy Langford (1,338 yards, 17 TD, 5.0 Avg. 2013) are back in the backfield with Cook ending the season throwing for more than 300 yards in back to back games.  He won’t be asked to do it a lot, but it has to be promising to see that he can handle a big load if needed. 
Iowa is always a team that flies under the radar.  Do you know what should not be under the radar?  Offensive tackle Brandon Schreff’s hang-clean.  Quite ridiculous.  On the other side of the line, Carl Davis is a solid NFL prospect that will lead a steadfast defense.  The biggest factor that could springboard Iowa toward Big Ten contention: the schedule.  The Hawkeyes do not play a team that won more than 7 games last year until game 11, and then they get both Wisconsin and Nebraska at home.  That means they avoid Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State and Michigan.  Now they did lose to Northern Iowa to start last season, but after that their only losses were to top-14 teams.  I think Iowa will keep that bad loss last year in mind and nearly run the table.

As good as the Michigan State defense is, the best position group on that side in the Big Ten is the Ohio State defensive line.  Urban Meyer has built his front four strong (just like in his Florida days) with Noah Spence, Michael Bennett and Joey Bosa wreaking havoc in opponents’ backfields.  On offense, Braxton Miller is back for his senior year and what will be his last chance to live up to his hype coming into school.  Don’t get me wrong, he has been quite good the past couple of seasons posting a 22-2 record, but it is not like he is winning these games by himself nor was the competition that strong.  As it stands now, he would be a late-round pick (if at all) and will need to show an increase in accuracy and arm strength to move up.  The schedule is pretty threatening with Virginia Tech early in the year and road trips to both Michigan State and Penn State.  I think the Hokies will be down after losing a ton on offense, and the Buckeyes should be able to at least split the two road conference games.