NFL Week 8 Picks

After a couple of quick-pick weeks, it’s time to delve into some trends this season.

As I have been on for the past few years, The Opposite Theory is when a team that covered the week before is playing a team that did not cover the previous game. It had developed into a profitable trend.

This season it has had some ups and downs, but is still two games above .500 which is basically breaking even money-wise.

Home underdogs have been strong this year, posting a 19-11-1 record. So if you only bet $100 a game on the home dogs, then you would be up $700 for the season.

Touchdown favorites are 16-10-1 and double-digit favorites are 4-3. Those trends seem to not matter as much as in previous years.

Then there is the West Coast team playing East at a noon start. This used to be one of the best bets each week. However, these West Coast teams are 7-4.

So now that we are at the mid-point, I am going to see if there are any other trends to follow. The next few weeks might have some ups and downs as I experiment with them.

TITANS -3 over Jaguars

I forgot to Tweet it, but I bet it. Home teams are now 6-2 against the spread on Thursday night games. The only ones that did not cover were the weird New England/Buffalo  game with Jacoby Brissett starting, and the Arizona/San Francisco game which was just a massive talent gap.

Redskins +3 over Bengals (In London)

The last of the London games this season. Although it is nice to have football on for basically 14 hours straight, it does force you to wake up super early to get your bets, lineups and survivor picks set.

Packers +3 over FALCONS

Green Bay looked like they found something in the West-Coast stylized short passing attack. Their line is awful, but with Cobb, Adams and Montgomery, Aaron Rodgers can get his receivers YAC opportunity. They also have extra preparation time after a Thursday night game.

TEXANS -2.5 over Lions

Houston looked awful Monday night, mostly because they had Brock Osweiler slinging the ball around like he was in the Big XII. That is not the way that he is a successful quarterback. He is a game manager. Lamar Miller will get a massive workload as they control the flow of the game and keep Matthew Stafford off of the field.

SAINTS +3 over Seahawks

I am going with all of the home underdogs this week. Drew Brees at home is just a different player, no matter what defense he is facing. Seattle’s offense has looked like a mess all season.

BILLS +7 over Patriots

This is one you just have to grit your teeth and bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. It’s a TOT game, a home underdog, and a touchdown underdog. The Patriots haven’t gotten swept by a division foe since 2000, so hopefully Buffalo can just keep it close.

BROWNS +3 over Jets

This has to be the hardest week in memory for a Survivor pick. The biggest favorite is the previous game with all of those trends against it. The worst team, Cleveland, is at home against another one of the worst 4 or 5 teams. I think the Jets will be a popular pick, meaning Cleveland will win this TOT game.

BUCCANEERS PK over Raiders

The Raiders like to build up expectations then tear them down. Over 80% of all bets are on Oakland at this point. That high of a percentage has yielded a 6-8 record for the betters. Jameis Winston will tear the Oakland secondary apart and Mike Evans continues his sneaky-great start to the year.

COLTS +3 over Chiefs

Kansas City is another popular play this week. They have been on a roll since their demolition at the hands of Pittsburgh. However, the Chiefs’ pass rush is not what it used to be. If you give Andrew Luck time, he will be able to find lanes.

BRONCOS -4 over Chargers

I like the revenge factor here for Denver after losing at San Diego a couple of Thursdays ago. Devontae Booker is an upgrade over C.J. Anderson in the running game.

PANTHERS -3 over Cardinals

Easily the two most disappointing teams this season, something has to give. Arizona should be able to score on Carolina’s Jekyll and Hyde defense, but Carolina is in must-win mode.

Eagles +5 over COWBOYS

This line has gone 2.5 points too high. I think these teams are pretty equal, and Dallas has absolutely no home-field advantage. If I’m wrong though, and Dak breaks down the top DVOA-ranked team, we might have a real contender here.

BEARS +5 over Vikings

The last of five home underdogs and probably the other most-picked survivor game. The Eagles showed the massive weakness that is the Vikings’ offensive line. As I have heard, “bad lines don’t travel.” That basically means your offensive line can be hidden at home, but on the road they become more of a liability.

Best Bets: 13-9

Eagles +5, Redskins +3, Panthers/Cardinals OVER 46

10-Point Teaser of the Week: 19-2

Cardinals/Panthers OVER 36, Eagles +15, Patriots +3

Others I Like: 37-5

Redskins +13, Browns +13, Saints +13, Packers +13, Packers/Falcons OVER 42, Buccaneers/Raiders OVER 38

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 8-6-1

Overall: 54-48-3

TOT: 18-16-1

NFL Week 7 Picks

Quick picks as I have two work golf tournaments this weekend.

PACKERS -7 over Bears

I’m taking Aaron Rodgers every week for the time being.

RAMS +3 over Giants

Not quite sure New York should be a road favorite over anyone.

EAGLES +3 over Vikings

82% of all bets are on the Vikings.

CHIEFS -6 over Saints

I think Kansas City might be good, but just threw everyone off of it with their blowout loss to Pittsburgh.

LIONS -1 over Redskins

If Theo Riddick plays he will run wild on this terrible defense.

BENGALS -10 over Browns

TOT game and the Browns just suck.

DOLPHINS +3 over Bills

The absence of Shady McCoy will hurt Buffalo more than you think.

Raiders +1.5 over JAGUARS

TOT game and Derek Carr will bounce back.

TITANS -3 over Colts

The Titans will be able to control the ball and clock, keeping Andrew Luck off of the field, the bad Indy defense on it.

JETS -2 over Ravens

Geno Smith is starting but New York is favored? Sucker bet of the week.

Chargers +7 over FALCONS

San Diego is keeping pretty much every game close. Fast surface, big game for Philip Rivers.

49ERS PK over Buccaneers

I don’t really have a feel for this game so I’ll go with the home team against a road team traveling cross country.

STEELERS +7 over Patriots

TOT game and Pittsburgh will keep it close enough on Le’Veon Bell’s back.

Seahawks +1 over CARDINALS

Carson Palmer has not looked good this season, and now he gets the best secondary in the league. TOT game.

Texans +10 over BRONCOS

This line has gotten out of control. I might flip back to the Broncos if it settles under a touchdown.

Best Bets: 11-8

Raiders +1.5, Seahawks +1, Vikings/Eagles OVER 40

10-Point Teaser of the Week: 16-2

Browns +20, Patriots +3, Vikings/Eagles OVER 30

Others I Like: 32-4

Seahawks +11, Raiders +11.5, Texans +20, Lions +9, Lions/Redskins OVER 39, Titans/Colts UNDER 59

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 4-9-2

Overall: 46-42-4

TOT: 16-15-1

NFL Week 6 Picks

CHARGERS +3 over Broncos

Give me the home dog on a short week. SD +3

— Michael Tomlin (@Tomlin3) October 14, 2016

Bengals +10 over PATRIOTS

This is a perfect example of The Opposite Theory. Cincy was destroyed by the Cowboys’ last weekend while New England fired on all cylinders with Tom Brady back. I think the Bengals can keep this one close as they avoid going to a 2-4 hole.

Ravens +4 over GIANTS

Eli Manning has been awful this season. Ben McAdoo is terrible at clock management. Odell Beckham is throwing temper tantrums and fighting kicking nets. I love it. All of it.

Panthers -2.5 over SAINTS

Cam Newton is definitely playing and this is a near must-win for the Panthers. If they fall to 1-5, that might be too big of a hole to dig out of.

DOLPHINS +7 over Steelers

This is a TOT game along with a home dog getting a touchdown. One thing that is almost a certainty in the NFL is that a team will not stay hot. There are very few examples of a team just dominating its opponents by more than a touchdown week in and week out. The Steelers can definitely win this game without covering.

BEARS -1.5 over Jaguars

Not only do I have absolutely no feel for this game but I would rather not watch a second of it. Brian Hoyer has shown how expendable Jay Cutler is, but have a longer 300-yard passing game streak than Cutler has ever had.

49ers +9 over BILLS

This line has just gotten too high. Let’s just hope that Buffalo does not play the National Anthem on a key third down…

Rams +3 over LIONS

This is another TOT game. As bad as the Rams’ offense has been, I just can’t trust the Lions by more than a field goal.

Browns +7 over TITANS

I basically could copy and paste the previous paragraph.

Eagles -3 over REDSKINS

This is a TOT game for the Eagles after the Redskins were gifted a win last week by Baltimore. Carson Wentz bounces back against the putrid Redskins’ defense.

Chiefs +1 over RAIDERS

Andy Reid is 18-3 straight up and 16-5 against the spread after a bye week in his career.

SEAHAWKS -6 over Falcons

Atlanta has had a pretty rough couple of weeks scheduling wise and I think it catches up to them.

PACKERS -4 over Cowboys

This is another TOT game after the Packers did not cover the 7.5 spread agains the Giants last week (although some had it at 7). The public is all over Dallas’ Kool Aid after a 4-game win streak. However, I think Dak Prescott presses here for the first time. With all of the talk about Tony Romo coming back after the bye, he might try to hard to show he should stay starting.

Colts +3 over TEXANS

At some point will someone let Brock Osweiler know that he has DeAndre Hopkins to throw to all game? He seems to just forget about him for long stretches.

Jets +7 over CARDINALS

I think Todd Bowles has a few tricks up his sleeve to stop his former team.

Best Bets: 9-7

Packers -4, Chiefs +1, Steelers/Dolphins OVER 48

10-Point Teaser of the Week: 13-2
Chiefs +11, Steelers/Dolphins OVER 38, Titans/Browns UNDER 54

Others I Like: 29-1

Packers +6, Patriots PK, Steelers +3, 49ers +19, Patriots/Bengals OVER 37, Panthers/Saints OVER 43

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 7-6-1

Overall: 42-33-2

TOT: 14-12-1

NFL Week 5 Picks

Not a good week for me (5-10) or The Opposite Theory (2-5). Quick picks this week as I try to bounce back.

Cardinals -3.5 over 49ERS

Arizona -3.5. TOT and they have to win at some point, QB or not.

— Michael Tomlin (@Tomlin3) October 6, 2016

Texans +7 over VIKINGS

Everyone is sipping Minnesota’s Kool-Aid a little too much.

DOLPHINS -3 over Titans

Tannehill has yet to have a really good game and I think he breaks out of his funk on extra rest.

BROWNS +11 over Patriots

Every survivor/knockout pool in the world will have the Patriots but I can’t pass up almost two touchdowns on a home dog.

Jets +10 over STEELERS

This line has ballooned up but it is one of the 3 TOT games this week. Also, Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS when coming off of a 40-point performance playing a team who has lost two in a row.

RAVENS -3 over Redskins

Our last TOT game and I’m not taking Cousins on the road.

LIONS +4 over Eagles

Insert Philadelphia into the Minnesota comment.

Bears +4.5 over COLTS

Indianapolis is atrocious on defense, mediocre on offense, with no above average player outside of Andrew Luck. Give me the points.

Falcons +4 over BRONCOS

Atlanta might be legit. And I don’t think Paxton Lynch will be strong in his first start.

RAMS +2 over Bills

This line has moved over a field goal in Buffalo’s favor and I am taking the value.

Chargers +4 over RAIDERS

San Diego has dealt with more injuries than anyone, but Philip Rivers keeps finding ways to keep games close.

COWBOYS +2 over Bengals

I’m buying this to a full field goal, but this is too much hate on the Cowboys.

Giants +7 over PACKERS

Eli is actually 5-2 ATS against Green Bay in their last seven games.

PANTHERS -4 over Buccaneers

This line has moved down with Cam Newton out, but Carolina needs this win. Badly.

Best Bets: 7-5

Ravens -3, Chargers +4, Raiders/Chargers OVER 50

10-Point Teaser of the Week: 11-1

Patriots -1, Jets +20, Bengals +8

Other I Like: 23-1

Ravens +7, Chargers +14, Raiders/Chargers OVER 40, Dolphins/Titans UNDER 55, Colts/Bears OVER 37.5, Falcons +14

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 5-10

Overall: 35-27-1

TOT: 13-10-1