Friday, September 26, 2014

NFL Week 4 Picks


Not a good showing last week, as I figured the lines would catch up to my theories.  Lost to a couple of excruciating endings, mostly that Browns collapse at the end to make it a push.  I have to go catch a plane in a bit, so this one is going to have to be quick.

REDSKINS -3 over Giants

Stupid theories.

BEARS +1.5 over Packers

The Packers have burned me twice already this year, and maybe the rest of that team just is not good enough for A-Rodg to drag them to the playoffs again.  The Bears on the other hand, have looked pretty damn good the past two weeks on prime time.

TEXANS -2.5 over Bills

Both of these teams had let downs at home last week, and I just think Houston is a better team here.  So I will take the field goal spread.

Titans +8 over COLTS

Indianapolis usually hasn’t been blowing teams out since Andrew Luck got there, so the odds of them having back-to-back blowouts are slim.  The Titans have been blown out two weeks in a row after demolishing a decent Kansas City team in Week 1.  I just feel like Tennessee can cover this big number.

Panthers +3.5 over RAVENS

I think Carolina rebounds from the egg they laid last week, and I think the Ravens are prone to disappointing betters whether it is for or against them.

JETS +3 over Lions

The Jets’ defense is strong and can keep them in most games.  In fact, these are surprisingly the top two defenses in the league in yards allowed.  In what should be a low-scoring affair, I will take the value.

Buccaneers +8 over STEELERS

As bad as Tampa looked last week and as good as Pittsburgh looked last week, I have to go with the opposite theory.  The Bucs still have an NFL quality roster, and those guys were embarrassed last week.  Lovie Smith will have them ready to play and cover a touchdown.

RAIDERS +3.5 over Dolphins

The Raiders found a solid formula for staying in striking distance against New England on the road last week, and I think they employ the same tactic here.  They also get a Miami team that has a mess at quarterback right now.

Jaguars +13 over CHARGERS

At some point the Jags will cover. I will be there for it through hell or high water.

49ERS -4 over Eagles

This line reached all the way to 6.5 earlier this week before the public jumped all over the Eagles at that number.  At 3-0, Philly might have a little letdown knowing that this is not a needed win for their end goal.  Throw in the fact that they have dissension in the locker room and I like the ‘Niners here.

VIKINGS +3.5 over Falcons

I believe in Teddy Bridgewater.  I believe that Atlanta’s defense is bad.  I believe in home dogs.  I believe in the Vikings this week.

COWBOYS +3 over Saints

New Orleans just is not that good away from home.  The public is all over the Saints still, with 76% of the action coming on New Orleans.  Is Dallas actually a good team?  I mean if you take out defensive touchdowns given up, (a random occurrence with no sustained likelihood for any team) they are 3-0 with a +39 point differential.  This game will show us just how good the Cowboys are.

Patriots -3 over CHIEFS

I’m off on some of the home dogs this week, and that’s partly because I still believe the Patriots will break out at some point.  What better place than Monday Night Football for Tom Brady to announce that he is nowhere near done yet? 

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Saints +7, Saints/Cowboys UNDER 64.5, Colts +2

Others I Like:

Jaguars +23, Eagles/49ers OVER 40, Panthers +13.5, Patriots +3, Raiders +13.5, Jets +13

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Malcom Floyd, WR, San Diego

The Chargers will put up some points on Jacksonville, and Gus Bradley will be out to stop Keenan Allen.  That will leave Floyd open for some big plays down the field.

 

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 6-9-1

Overall: 28-20-1

Friday, September 19, 2014

NFL Week 3 Picks


Well it looks like I have a pretty good feel to the start of this season, as I had one of my best weeks ever against the spread at 12-4.  That could come crashing down now, once Vegas starts catching on to the value they are leaving out there or I just make dumb decisions like taking Tampa last night.  I thought that getting a touchdown was too much, but I underestimated how strong the “Team on the Road on Short Rest” theory is.  That Tampa Bay team looked drained and once they were down, they gave up.  I will be taking every home team on Thursday night for the rest of the season.  Home underdogs went 2-3 last week, but don’t think that will stop me from taking them from here on out.  There were just some serious mismatches last week that led to blowouts. 

 

Buccaneers +7 over FALCONS

Oops.

BILLS -2 over Chargers

Here you have a West Coast team coming off of a late afternoon game last week, traveling about as far from home as possible in the NFL, and playing a game that starts at 10 a.m. to them.  Throw in the fact that Buffalo will have a rocking crowd with their new owner, and the team is actually pretty good. 

RAMS +2 over Cowboys

This amounts to almost a must-win game for Dallas with some of their upcoming contests, so do you really think they can pull through?  It won’t matter if it’s Shaun Hill or Austin Davis, St. Louis will be focused on stopping DeMarco Murray after he has torched them twice, including for a Cowboys record 253 yards.  Add in that they are a home underdog coming off of a win nonetheless, and I think St. Louis easily beats Dallas.

EAGLES -6.5 over Redskins

You know how I know that Philly will blow out Washington?  It is simply because the Eagles struggled with putting the Jaguars away, while Washington completely blew their doors off.  So by common opponents, Washington should beat Philadelphia pretty handily.  You know what common opponent theories mean in the NFL? Nothing.  Cousins is better than Griffin, but it will take some time before he is able to score with Chip Kelly.

GIANTS +2 over Texans

Houston has beaten two bad teams in Washington and Oakland, and their offense has not been good in either game.  The Giants have looked terrible but their quality of opponent looks much stronger.  You have the “Underdog coming off of a bad week at home against a favorite coming off a good week on the road” theory as well as a home underdog. 

Vikings +10.5 over SAINTS

In no way do I think that Minnesota will beat New Orleans and drop them to 0-3.  I also just cannot give double digit points anymore.  As you saw last week with Kansas City and Denver, beating an NFL team by more than 10 points can be tricky if it’s expected.

Titans +7.5 over BENGALS

Another “Underdog/bad week against Favorite/good week” game, where the Titans played as bad as they could last week and the Bengals played about as well as they could.  Jake Locker will bounce back from an atrocious day throwing the ball last week, where he was missing wide open receivers high all day.  The Bengals have climbed into the echelon of contenders in many people’s minds which leads me to believe they are due for a letdown. 

BROWNS +2 over Ravens

Another common opponent theory game, in which Baltimore blew out Pittsburgh, plays Cleveland who lost on a last minute field goal to the Steelers.  The difference was that the Browns played in Pittsburgh, while both of the Ravens’ games have been at home.  Cleveland’s defense is for real and the lack of a quality running back will finally come to bite the Ravens’ in the butt.  Upset special of the week.

LIONS -2.5 over Packers

Okay, so the Lions got beat by double digits against the Panthers, in Carolina, while the Packers just struggled for a bit before pulling away from the Jets, at home.  So why on Earth should Detroit be favored in this game?  I think we are looking at the sucker bet of the week, and the Lions are the right choice here.

JAGUARS +7 over Colts

A home underdog getting a touchdown?  Why does it have to be Jacksonville??? Because it is ALWAYS the Jaguars.  At some point they will start covering these big numbers, and I don’t want to bail before that happens.

Raiders +14 over PATRIOTS

Just take the two touchdowns and run. Just take the two touchdowns and run.

CARDINALS +3.5 over 49ers

I still don’t think San Francisco is any good; they beat Dallas when really the Cowboys beat themselves.  They lost a home, primetime game against an average Chicago team, and Kaepernick looked AWFUL.  I still hold firmly that Alex Smith was the better long term solution for this team.  Arizona on the other hand, won with its backup quarterback Drew Stanton, thanks in large part to a still stout defense.  The many injuries do not seem to affect that unit as they keep holding teams down.

SEAHAWKS -4.5 over Broncos

I still see the same problems facing Denver as the Super Bowl, except now they have to deal with an intense Seattle 12th Man and Wes Welker just getting to practice.  Throw in the fact that Denver is 2-0 and Seattle is 1-1, and this game will mean more to the Seahawks.

DOLPHINS -4 over Chiefs

This line has been bet down from 6.5, and the fact that it started that high shows you how lowly Vegas thinks of Kansas City.  They looked decent last week, but I think that has more to do with the Denver rivalry rather than the quality of the team.  Miami still beat New England and lost on a tough road trip to Buffalo and I think they are just the better team.

Steelers +3.5 over PANTHERS

For some reason I just can’t see Carolina starting the year 3-0.  That’s really all I got for this game.  I can promise I won’t gamble on it, but if I had to pick one of these two, I guess I’m taking Pittsburgh.

JETS -2.5 over Bears

Can Chicago go on the road in back to back weeks and win two prime time games?  I am not thinking so.  The Jets have been surprisingly frisky after dispatching Oakland and hanging with Green Bay.  Their defense will keep them in it, and their offense is just good enough to score on Chicago’s bad defense.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

New Orleans -0.5, Cowboys/Rams UNDER 55, Jaguars/Colts OVER 34

Others I Like:

Jaguars +17, Patriots -4, Bengals/Titans UNDER 54.5, Seahawks +5, Steelers +13, Saints/Vikings OVER 38

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Niles Paul, TE, Washington

He is not as big of a sleeper after I’m sure he was snatched up in many leagues, but with Kirk Cousins behind center Paul will see a ton of targets.  Defenses will start to put an umbrella over the top of Garcon and Jackson so that Cousins won’t beat them deep, opening up big gains in the middle for Paul.

 

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 12-4

Season: 22-11

Friday, September 12, 2014

NFL Week 2 Picks

Well I got off to a strong start last week posting a 10-6 record against the number.  So if you bet just $100 on each of my plays then, you won over $400 including the teaser that hit.  Vegas in general had a good weekend with underdogs covering ten of the thirteen Sunday games.  Home underdogs went 2-1 with only Dallas crappin’ the bed.  Touchdown underdogs (I count it at 6.5 and up) were 3-2 against the spread and the only Double-Digit-Dog (DDD) Jacksonville went up 17-0 before failing to cover in the end.
            As you may know if you have read my gambling picks previously, I follow the trends in the LVH SuperContest very closely.  The SuperContest is where the majority of the best handicappers in the world compete for a seven-figure prize off of just a $1,500 buy-in.  They each pick any five games they want against the spread and the person with the best record at the end wins.  Last week, the top two overwhelming plays both failed to cover, as well as three of the top five.  They don’t release their selections until Sunday morning most of the time, but they are worth a look.  If there are a couple of overwhelmingly majority picked games, I would go against it.  Like the saying goes, the hotels in Vegas weren’t built on winners.
            I started off on the right foot again by taking Baltimore based on the short-week home team coming off of a loss over the short-week road team coming off of a win theory.  It is another trend to watch as the season goes.  Don't forget to check out my latest article for SKYLLZONE about hidden value in weekly drafts.

PANTHERS -2.5 over Lions
This almost follows the short-week win/loss theory, except the Panthers won last week.  The reason I still lean towards Carolina is since Cam Newton did not play last week (and I’m guessing he starts against Detroit) he will want to prove how invaluable he is to the team.   I have these two teams exactly equal on my power rankings, so the home team’s bonus on the line is enough for me to take Carolina.

BILLS +1 over Dolphins
This line has been a Mexican Jumping Bean going back and forth towards both teams being favored.  I will stick with the Bills as the slight home-underdog, especially with how high Miami is riding after beating the Patriots.  Buffalo feels good about themselves after winning in Chicago, but I think Miami feels a little more comfortable winning the division game against the division favorite.  Buffalo could be sneaky good.

REDSKINS -6 over Jaguars
On paper and in my own thoughts, I am not so sure that Jacksonville is the worse team of these two.  With that said, the line at almost a touchdown causes me to wonder why Vegas would want to push so hard for action on Jacksonville.  With almost two thirds of the public money coming in on the Jags, I am going to go contrarian and take Washington.  I could be completely wrong, and the NFC East just sucks, but the next two games will really help solve that issue….

TITANS -3 over Cowboys
No one is as big of a Romo defender as me, but that might have been his worst game yet last week.  The thing is, they were not the normal “Romo trying to make something happen on 3rd and long” interceptions.  He looked like he had not had enough practice (he hadn’t) and there was no zip on his throws: they were just fluttering up there.  I sincerely hope it was rust and not his back.  Either way, I’m taking Tennessee here out of sheer principle.

GIANTS +3.5 over Cardinals
This is the epitome of one team looking absolutely dreadful last week against another completely out performing expectations for a win over a solid contender.  If this game was last week then the Giants would have been a 4 point favorite by the consensus Vegas power rankings and being at home.  I don’t think Arizona is that good nor do I think the Giants are that bad, so I will take the touchdown’s worth of value.

VIKINGS +3.5 over Patriots
Everyone has heard the stat now about Belichick and Brady not losing back-to-back games.  They are also 10-1 against the spread off of a loss as a road favorite.  I also picked them to win the Super Bowl.  I still can’t take them here, especially with the public backing New England on well over 80% of the tickets.  All of the sharps and wiseguys agree with me on Minnesota, as they have bet the line down from 5 to 3.5 and it could go even lower.  The Vikings could pull of this upset and put themselves in the talk of being a true contender.  Or I’m an idiot of betting against Brady off of a loss.

BROWNS +7 over Saints
In no way do I think that Cleveland can win this game.  However, that is one gambling rule I have come around on, especially when it is a home underdog getting over a touchdown.  As we saw last week, Hoyer and Co. can come back on huge leads and their defense really is not that bad.  I think this line is just too high, and the public loves New Orleans way too much (over 90%!!).

BENGALS -5 over Falcons
After the Falcons’ impressive win last week, you would think these two teams would be a little closer.  But with Baltimore’s strong win last night, and Vegas keeping the line in between the two key numbers, they are still trying to force action on Atlanta. I can see it being a letdown game for the Falcons after the OT-thriller last week and feeling like they got the 1-1 out of the first two games that they needed.

Rams +7 over BUCCANEERS
Both of these teams looked pretty bad last week, but only one of them was starting a backup quarterback against a starting quarterback.  In fact, Tampa was starting its starter and against a backup in the opposite way.  The Rams will not be able to score a lot with anyone, but their defense is stout.  With the total set at 36, this figures to be a low-scoring game, which plays into St. Louis’ favor, especially getting a touchdown.

CHARGERS +6.5 over Seahawks
Another game of a home team coming off of a demoralizing loss against a road team coming off of a dominant win.  I’m definitely going to spend the juice to push the line to a full touchdown.  The Seahawks only won two games on the road last season by more than a touchdown.  In fact, against playoff teams last year on the road, Seattle went 1-2 with a 5 point win at Carolina.  They are just not as dominant of a team on the road, so I will take the touchdown-home-underdog.

RAIDERS +3 over Texans
Was there any doubt that I would take the clean sweep of six home-dogs?  This is yet another example of a home-dog coming off of a loss against a road team coming off of a win.  This theory will make or break my week, but I would not be shocked if the teams coming off of losses sweep the games against the number.  The Raiders went cross-country for a noon start and covered which is a hard thing to do.  Houston just beat the Redskins, which is not a hard thing to do.

Jets +10 over PACKERS
As a contrarian/underdog better, this is a very difficult one to roll with.  Even with a 4-ponit home field advantage to Green Bay, this still would only be a 9.5 point spread by my power rankings.  I just have to stick to DDD’s to get the overall value of betting on them.

Chiefs +13 over BRONCOS
Once again, I have to stick with the DDD’s.  I have a bad feeling about these last two.

Bears +7 over 49ERS
This one is a little trickier, since the team coming off of a loss is the road team, but the loss was so demoralizing that I think the trend still is in play.  San Francisco really didn’t play that well for winning a game by 11 points.  I mean the Cowboys gave them a defensive touchdown 2 plays into the game, had four turnovers that were basically all unforced, including one in the end zone, and it was still in doubt late.  I would not be shocked if the Bears win this game, but this whole pick comes with an asterisk that Marshall/Jeffery play.

Eagles +3 over COLTS
This would seem to fit the team coming off of a loss against a team coming off of a win, but Indianapolis played terribly in the first half last week and only looked good when Denver backed off.  Philly played as bad as it possibly good for an entire half, and still won by 17 points.  I think this is a complete toss-up, so I will take the field goal of value.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Broncos -3, Saints/Browns UNDER 59.5, Titans +7

Others I Like:
Bucs/Rams OVER 26, Bears +17, Packers PK, Chargers +16.5, Bills +11, Giants/Cardinals UNDER 54

Fantasy Sleepers of the Week: Jake Locker, QB, Tennessee and Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cincinnati
I was just going to take Locker against the terrible Cowboys’ defense, but Matthew Berry already went off about him.  Locker does have a solid string of games together now, and might be making a move toward a legit QB1.  Gresham will now be the sole TE target with Tyler Eifert out with a dislocated elbow.  I think the Bengals/Falcons will be a shootout and Gresham should get a touchdown.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 10-6

Season: 11-6

Friday, September 5, 2014

NFL Picks Week 1

After the full NFL Preview, I am going to knock out the rest of this week’s picks quickly.  The only other thing I’ll say is Seattle at home for a night game is an official “Take them no matter what the spread is” game.  Since the Fail Mary game a couple of years ago, every night game played in Seattle has been a Seahawks’ win by more than two touchdowns.

FALCONS +3.5 over Saints
The hook of the half point more than a field goal pulled me in to what should be a shootout.  Atlanta should bounce back nicely this season.

RAMS -3 over Vikings
Like I said in my NFC preview, the Rams’ roster is quite strong outside of quarterback so Shaun Hill should be all right.  It should tell you something that St. Louis is still the favor with their backup quarterback in.  Over 80% of the public’s bets are on the Vikings, the most of any game this week.

Browns +7.5 over STEELERS
The Browns will not be that good, but the Steelers’ defense is pretty bad too.  Troy Polomalu is just awful now on an every-play basis.  Even Miles Austin can get open against that secondary.

Jaguars +10.5 over EAGLES
Double-digit underdogs went 18-15-1 against the spread last year, so I am going to stay away from the favorites in this scenario for the time being.

Raiders +6 over JETS
I’m not really sure what to do with this game because there is so much unknown with both of these teams.  I will definitely stay away from it, but I’ll take the points.

RAVENS -1.5 over Bengals
This is another game between two teams that I have pretty even in my power rankings.  I do have the Bengals as a 3-point favorite on a neutral field, so once you add in the game being in Baltimore, they should still be a slight favorite or Pick ‘Em.  However Vegas has the Ravens as the firm favorite so I will go with them.

Bills +7 over BEARS
This seems like one of those Week 1 games that everyone thinks will be an easy win and has Chicago in their Knockout Pools; then they are sweating it in the fourth quarter.

TEXANS -2.5 over Redskins
The Redskins could be really bad this year, and Houston should play much better.  RG3 could get knocked out in the first quarter if Clowney gets an opportunity.

Titans +3 over CHIEFS
I am not sold on Tennessee at all, but this seems like the sucker bet of the week.  A team that won 11 games at home against a team that won 7 the year before, and there are no major changes.  That should be closer to a touchdown but holding at a field goal drawing in KC bets. 

DOLPHINS +4 over Patriots
You know I love me some home underdogs!  Miami actually beat the Patriots late last season in Florida, and I think they can at least make this close.

Panthers +3 over BUCCANEERS
This has been an over-adjustment due to the Cam Newton injury.  I think he plays so you can get value on the line right now.

COWBOYS +4.5 over 49ers
This has been bet down some over the week due to the injuries/suspensions to San Francisco.  The Cowboys’ defense will be awful, as every analyst in the world has pointed out, but I think the 49ers’ defense will be near the middle of the league.  Dallas will put up points and keep this game close.

Colts +7.5 over BRONCOS
I wanted to lay the points with Peyton after what happened on opening night last year, but then I remembered how Indy plays up to the level of competition. 

Giants +7 over LIONS
I’m buying this line up to the full touchdown, which most sharps will be doing after getting Detroit at -3 earlier in the week.  This is another game of the unknown with so much turnover on New York’s offense, so I’ll take the points.

CARDINALS -3 over Chargers
Too many people are on San Diego, some even picking them to beat out the Broncos for the division.  Everyone seems to forget that they start slow every, single, year.  I’ll take Carson Palmer throwing to Floyd/Fitzgerald over Keenan Allen trying to get open on Patrick Peterson.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Jaguars +20.5, Titans +13, Cowboys/49ers OVER 40

Others I Like:
Cowboys +14.5, Dolphins +14, Giants +17, Bears +3, Broncos/Colts OVER 44, Jets/Raiders UNDER 51

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week:
This will be someone you should be able to pick up, or use in your SKYLLZONE lineup.  Since there aren’t many sleepers for the first week, I’ll go with a defense you can stream in the Jets.  That game should be low scoring, and they get a rookie quarterback in his first start.

Week: 1-0

Season: 1-0

Thursday, September 4, 2014

Post Season and Awards

Post-Season and Awards:

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Johnny Manziel, QB, Cleveland- Risky pick since he’s not even the starter, but if JFF plays at least half the year he will almost assuredly win this award.  The hype and highlights will get him that much.  If he doesn’t start, I’m guessing Kelvin Benjamin wins.  I still don’t advocate Benjamin as a fantasy sleeper, but I think he will have a couple of multiple-TD games with monster catches to boost his resume.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jadaveon Clowney, DE, Houston- With the bad teams he will get to face and J.J. Watt taking all the double teams, 20 sacks is in play.  The only way he might not win would be that Clowney starts so strong that the double teams fall to him giving Watt over 20 sacks, and then look for someone like Aaron Donald of the Rams.

Defensive Player of the Year: DeMarcus Ware, DE, Denver- Ware was hurt all season last year giving a false vibe for the amount of talent he has left.  He will be in an ideal pass-rushing situation: a team that will always be up, score a ton of points forcing the opponent to pass, and with a talented secondary causing the QB to hold onto the ball.  It was still the right choice to cut him, but it will suck when he has 18 sacks and 5 forced fumbles.

Sleeper Defensive Player of the Year: Darrelle Revis, CB, New England- Apparently he is fully healthy as well and we saw what Aqib Talib could do with Belichick last year.  I think he will get opportunities because like Ware, the Patriots will be up and forcing other teams to pass a lot.  They can’t throw away from him the whole game.

MVP: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay- Once again, until otherwise noted he is still the favorite to me.  Even more so since he was injured last year and I doubt that he will miss the majority of the season again.

Sleeper MVP: Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis- I was tempted to take Romo again just because he might throw for 5K, but they Cowboys still will suck so he wouldn’t get consideration.  Rodgers is the best player in the league right now… and Luck is not that far behind him.  One of these years he will take the title belt, so why not this one?

NFC:
#1- Seattle
#2- Green Bay
#3- New Orleans
#4- Philadelphia
#5- San Francisco
#6- Atlanta

Wild Card: San Francisco over Philadelphia, New Orleans over Atlanta
Divisional: San Francisco over Seattle, Green Bay over New Orleans
NFC Championship: Green Bay over San Francisco

San Francisco should have most of its team back from suspension/injury by the end of the season, and I think having the toughest schedule in the league hardens them for the playoff matchups.  If there is a team that can go into Seattle and win, it is probably the 49ers.  Having said that, I still think Green Bay is the best team in the conference besides the Seahawks, and I just can’t see a team repeating anymore.

AFC:
#1- Denver
#2- New England
#3- Indianapolis
#4- Cincinnati
#5- Pittsburgh
#6- Houston

Wild Card: Indianapolis over Houston, Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
Divisional: Denver over Pittsburgh, New England over Indianapolis
AFC Championship: New England over Denver

In the AFC, we get the 37th (approximately) Brady/Manning championship game.  Pittsburgh could be a dangerous out if they get in the playoffs and would not surprise me if they upset one of the favorites.  However, I think Brady knows this might be his last chance as one of the favorites.  The young quarterbacks in his division are going to get better (Tannehill, and Smith or Manuel) and outside of the division have already hit elite (Luck).  Denver just won’t have the stamina to get to back-to-back Super Bowls.

SUPER BOWL XLIX: New England over Green Bay

As much as I love Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ team, I just have a feeling that this is the year that Brady/Belichick get one more.  The schedule sets up for them to have an easy ride into a first round bye, and the rest of the AFC is pretty weak outside of Denver.  While this was a bad thing when the Broncos had to face the staunch Seattle defense, when facing a team like the Packers the more healthy and invigorated team will win.  That will definitely be the Patriots after the Packers have to run the NFC gauntlet.

THURSDAY NIGHT PICK: SEAHAKS -5.5 over PACKERS

I know, I just picked Green Bay to go to the Super Bowl, but I think the energy will be too high for the Packers to overcome.  Also notice I did not pick Green Bay to have to beat the Seahawks because I think it is a bad matchup.  The one hesitation I have is that the referee crew calling the game called twice as many DB penalties (pass interference, holding, illegal contact) than league average over both the preseason and last year.  If they call it too tightly, then Aaron Rodgers will take advantage.