NFL Week 3 Picks

Well it looks like I have a pretty good feel to the start of this season, as I had one of my best weeks ever against the spread at 12-4.  That could come crashing down now, once Vegas starts catching on to the value they are leaving out there or I just make dumb decisions like taking Tampa last night.  I thought that getting a touchdown was too much, but I underestimated how strong the “Team on the Road on Short Rest” theory is.  That Tampa Bay team looked drained and once they were down, they gave up.  I will be taking every home team on Thursday night for the rest of the season.  Home underdogs went 2-3 last week, but don’t think that will stop me from taking them from here on out.  There were just some serious mismatches last week that led to blowouts. 

 

Buccaneers +7 over FALCONS

Oops.

BILLS -2 over Chargers

Here you have a West Coast team coming off of a late afternoon game last week, traveling about as far from home as possible in the NFL, and playing a game that starts at 10 a.m. to them.  Throw in the fact that Buffalo will have a rocking crowd with their new owner, and the team is actually pretty good. 

RAMS +2 over Cowboys

This amounts to almost a must-win game for Dallas with some of their upcoming contests, so do you really think they can pull through?  It won’t matter if it’s Shaun Hill or Austin Davis, St. Louis will be focused on stopping DeMarco Murray after he has torched them twice, including for a Cowboys record 253 yards.  Add in that they are a home underdog coming off of a win nonetheless, and I think St. Louis easily beats Dallas.

EAGLES -6.5 over Redskins

You know how I know that Philly will blow out Washington?  It is simply because the Eagles struggled with putting the Jaguars away, while Washington completely blew their doors off.  So by common opponents, Washington should beat Philadelphia pretty handily.  You know what common opponent theories mean in the NFL? Nothing.  Cousins is better than Griffin, but it will take some time before he is able to score with Chip Kelly.

GIANTS +2 over Texans

Houston has beaten two bad teams in Washington and Oakland, and their offense has not been good in either game.  The Giants have looked terrible but their quality of opponent looks much stronger.  You have the “Underdog coming off of a bad week at home against a favorite coming off a good week on the road” theory as well as a home underdog. 

Vikings +10.5 over SAINTS

In no way do I think that Minnesota will beat New Orleans and drop them to 0-3.  I also just cannot give double digit points anymore.  As you saw last week with Kansas City and Denver, beating an NFL team by more than 10 points can be tricky if it’s expected.

Titans +7.5 over BENGALS

Another “Underdog/bad week against Favorite/good week” game, where the Titans played as bad as they could last week and the Bengals played about as well as they could.  Jake Locker will bounce back from an atrocious day throwing the ball last week, where he was missing wide open receivers high all day.  The Bengals have climbed into the echelon of contenders in many people’s minds which leads me to believe they are due for a letdown. 

BROWNS +2 over Ravens

Another common opponent theory game, in which Baltimore blew out Pittsburgh, plays Cleveland who lost on a last minute field goal to the Steelers.  The difference was that the Browns played in Pittsburgh, while both of the Ravens’ games have been at home.  Cleveland’s defense is for real and the lack of a quality running back will finally come to bite the Ravens’ in the butt.  Upset special of the week.

LIONS -2.5 over Packers

Okay, so the Lions got beat by double digits against the Panthers, in Carolina, while the Packers just struggled for a bit before pulling away from the Jets, at home.  So why on Earth should Detroit be favored in this game?  I think we are looking at the sucker bet of the week, and the Lions are the right choice here.

JAGUARS +7 over Colts

A home underdog getting a touchdown?  Why does it have to be Jacksonville??? Because it is ALWAYS the Jaguars.  At some point they will start covering these big numbers, and I don’t want to bail before that happens.

Raiders +14 over PATRIOTS

Just take the two touchdowns and run. Just take the two touchdowns and run.

CARDINALS +3.5 over 49ers

I still don’t think San Francisco is any good; they beat Dallas when really the Cowboys beat themselves.  They lost a home, primetime game against an average Chicago team, and Kaepernick looked AWFUL.  I still hold firmly that Alex Smith was the better long term solution for this team.  Arizona on the other hand, won with its backup quarterback Drew Stanton, thanks in large part to a still stout defense.  The many injuries do not seem to affect that unit as they keep holding teams down.

SEAHAWKS -4.5 over Broncos

I still see the same problems facing Denver as the Super Bowl, except now they have to deal with an intense Seattle 12^th Man and Wes Welker just getting to practice.  Throw in the fact that Denver is 2-0 and Seattle is 1-1, and this game will mean more to the Seahawks.

DOLPHINS -4 over Chiefs

This line has been bet down from 6.5, and the fact that it started that high shows you how lowly Vegas thinks of Kansas City.  They looked decent last week, but I think that has more to do with the Denver rivalry rather than the quality of the team.  Miami still beat New England and lost on a tough road trip to Buffalo and I think they are just the better team.

Steelers +3.5 over PANTHERS

For some reason I just can’t see Carolina starting the year 3-0.  That’s really all I got for this game.  I can promise I won’t gamble on it, but if I had to pick one of these two, I guess I’m taking Pittsburgh.

JETS -2.5 over Bears

Can Chicago go on the road in back to back weeks and win two prime time games?  I am not thinking so.  The Jets have been surprisingly frisky after dispatching Oakland and hanging with Green Bay.  Their defense will keep them in it, and their offense is just good enough to score on Chicago’s bad defense.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

New Orleans -0.5, Cowboys/Rams UNDER 55, Jaguars/Colts OVER 34

Others I Like:

Jaguars +17, Patriots -4, Bengals/Titans UNDER 54.5, Seahawks +5, Steelers +13, Saints/Vikings OVER 38

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Niles Paul, TE, Washington

He is not as big of a sleeper after I’m sure he was snatched up in many leagues, but with Kirk Cousins behind center Paul will see a ton of targets.  Defenses will start to put an umbrella over the top of Garcon and Jackson so that Cousins won’t beat them deep, opening up big gains in the middle for Paul.

 

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 12-4

Season: 22-11