NFC
WEST
Seattle Seahawks, 12-4
San Francisco 49ers, 9-7
Arizona Cardinals, 7-9
St. Louis Rams, 5-11
Usually
when a team wins a Super Bowl they suffer from the “Disease of More” in which
players leave the team for more money elsewhere. The prime example would be Paul Kruger
leaving the Ravens after a solid post-season.
The difference about this Seattle team is their structure: late round
picks on their inexpensive rookie contracts.
The Seahawks were able to keep the majority of their team in tact and are
in prime position to repeat. As hard as
it may seem to believe, I think their defense is actually under-rated: that
this is one of the best units in the history of the game when you factor in how
good the offenses are now. I mean they
took the most prolific offense in NFL history and completely dismantled it,
even outscoring it by themselves. When
you combine that fact with an efficient quarterback who doesn’t turn the ball
over making less than a million dollars a year and the best home field advantage
in the game, then you get a team locked in for 12-13 wins. Now after this year, things might change as
some rookie contracts will be up, but until then they should remain the
favorite.
San
Francisco is a hard team to get a good grasp on with so many suspensions and
off the field incidents. The defense is
not going to be nearly as good as it has been, especially at the start of the
year. Navarro Bowman had quietly become
one of the best linebackers in the league and his presence will be sorely
missed. The offense should be better
with a full season of Michael Crabtree and Collin Kaepernick together. At some point, Kaepernick will have to take a
step up with his passing if he wants to move up to the upper echelon of
quarterbacks. The biggest factor I see
in the 49ers taking a step back is their schedule: 13 of their 16 games they
play a team that won 8 or more games last season, over half of them playoff
teams. Of the other three, they also
have a cross-country trip to New York to play the Giants for a noon start. If I did not have so much faith in Jim
Harbaugh, I would have put San Francisco below .500.
Arizona
surprised everyone last year by winning 10 games and still missing the
playoffs. Carson Palmer remains an
under-rated option at quarterback throwing for almost 4,300 yards and 24
touchdowns. If he can work on cutting
down the interceptions, this offense can be explosive because of their
two-headed receiving monster, Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald. Floyd actually led the team with 1,041 yards
last season and looks to improve upon his 5 touchdowns. Andre Ellington looks like a top fantasy
sleeper to bust out after averaging 5.5 yards per carry and likely getting many
more carries this season. The defense
will miss the honey badger at first, but Patrick Peterson can more than make up
the slack. Peterson has the highest approximate value
of any non-quarterback since entering the league. What really hurts Arizona is the same problem
facing all of the NFC West: having to play the AFC West. The Cardinals also get the extra game on the
road against a much-improved Atlanta team, so it does not bode well for their
playoff hopes.
St.
Louis will always have to deal with the comparisons between RGIII and whoever
the Rams have at quarterback after dealing away the pick for him. I still think it was the right move, even if
Sam Bradford does not pan out which is especially likely now. The Rams have built a strong roster
everywhere else except quarterback. They
have the best defensive line in football, to go with a young and athletic back
seven. Their offense line is decent and
they just added the best tackle in the draft.
Their receivers need to improve, but their running backs are extremely
deep after adding Tre Mason to the emergent Zac Stacy. The table is set for a quarterback to come
in, and as we just saw with Seattle, a quarterback can reach his maximum
potential in a quicker manner in this type of situation. Sam Bradford was going to reap the rewards
for that but another torn ACL may have ended his time in St. Louis. Shaun Hill gives me no hope, so unless the
Rams make a trade for Kirk Cousins or another possible starter, I think St.
Louis will have a very high pick to take a quarterback (Winston, Mariota,
Hundley) with much higher potential than Griffin.
SOUTH
New Orleans Saints, 10-6
Atlanta Falcons, 9-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8-8
Carolina Panthers, 6-10
The
Saints did something that is quite surprising last season: they were the second
ranked team in both passing and opponents’ passing. Usually when a team throws as much as New
Orleans (i.e. Denver: 1st in passing/27th in opposing
passing) they give up more yards due to mere opportunities. Rob Ryan has really turned this Saints’
defense around and Kenny Vaccaro and Jairus Byrd create a lot of havoc in the
back. Drew Brees now owns half of the
5,000 yard passing seasons in NFL history, and he has a new toy in the fastest
receiver in the draft Brandin Cooks.
They will still lose a few random road games when Brees gets a little
careless with the ball, but the Saints are a good bet to take the division.
Every
year it happens to me (and many other fans as well) and every year I fall for
it again. I always over-rate the team on
Hard Knocks just because it is such a great show that I fall enamored with the
team involved. Couple the Hard Knocks
factor with an Atlanta team that lost some of its top weapons to injury last
season and I feel strongly that the Falcons should bounce back. I’m worried about their linebackers after
Weatherspoon went out with an Achilles injury, but their offense should keep
them in plenty of shootouts. Matt Ryan
just has a plethora of weapons when they are all healthy after Harry Douglas
broke out for 1,000 yards last year, and I expect rookie RB Devonta Freeman to
get double-digit touches a game. This
offense will score some points and keep Atlanta in playoff contention.
Do
you remember what the Chiefs added/changed between 2012/2013? They added a better head coach, and upgraded
to an efficient quarterback that takes care of the football. Tampa Bay got rid of Greg Schiano and
upgraded to Love Smith who is 81-63 as a coach with a Super Bowl trip. Josh McCown showed last season that given two
big targets, he can take care of the ball and put up points (Chicago led the
league in scoring last season). So now
McCown has Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans out wide with athletic freak Austin
Sefarian-Jenkins at tight end which should help the league’s 32nd
ranked passing attack. I think the
running backs with split carries between Doug Martin, Mike James and Bobby
Rainey. I am not completely sold on the
defense to put the Bucs in the playoffs just yet. Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David are studs, but
Michael Johnson and Dashon Goldson need to earn their money. If the defense can step up, then Tampa will
definitely be in the playoff hunt.
Then
there is the near lock to regress from a good season last year, the Carolina
Panthers. Carolina took advantage of an
easy schedule and a dominant defense to mow their way into the playoffs. Don’t get me wrong, the defense will be good
again, but it will be hard to top giving up less than 300 yards per game. The more disturbing part of the Panthers is
their entire offense. The line lost
Jordan Gross to retirement and has no hope of replacing him with any sort of
solidity. Not a single wide receiver
returning from last year had even 100 yards.
They drafted Kelvin Benjamin who has wowed with highlight catches, but
he will have to prove himself before I’m touching him in fantasy leagues. DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart are
the two-headed RBC that seems to be ready to fall off the edge. Of course there is still Cam Newton, but the
broken ribs worry me that he will not be ready to take as much of a beating,
which has been the Panthers’ best red zone offense. All of this adds together to create a losing
season for Carolina.
NORTH
Green Bay Packers, 12-4
Chicago Bears, 9-7
Detroit Lions, 8-8
Minnesota Vikings, 5-11
Green
Bay somehow won the division without Aaron Rodgers for half of the season. With Rodgers there for a full year, they will
always be around 12 wins. The defense
was the issue even without Rodgers and getting some guys back from injury as
well as drafting the top safety in the draft Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix should help them
bounce back. Eddie Lacy was a breakout
last year, but I am worried that he has a little too much Trent Richardson-quality
to him. Lacy only averaged a little over
4 yards a carry on his way to 1,178 yards, and he had over 300 touches as a
rookie. Even if Lacy disappoints, a full
year of Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson together will get Rodgers near 4,500
yards and 40 touchdowns leading the Pack to a first round bye week.
On
the whole, you would have to say that the NFC North has the best offenses. The Bears sport the best receiver pair in the
league with Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall who combined for over 2,700
yards and 19 touchdowns last season. Jay
Cutler will take more chances than McCown, so expect even more big plays from
the massive duo. Matt Forte benefitted
the most from Marc Trestman’s offense, putting up career highs across the
board. Of course I own him in a fantasy
league this year, so he will get hurt or completely disappear. What holds Chicago back is a putrid defense
that rivaled the Cowboys for dreadfulness.
Opponents rushed for more than 160 yards a game against the Bears,
keeping their explosive offense off the field.
Chicago added CB Kyle Fuller and a pair of run-stuffing defensive
tackles with their first three picks to help shore up their rush defense. The key to the Bears’ season lies in weeks
2-6: at San Francisco, at the Jets, Green Bay, at Carolina, and at
Atlanta. If they get through that tough
stretch at 2-3 or better, the Bears should make the playoffs.
From
the league’s best receiving duo, to the league’s best receiver the Detroit
Lions are not afraid to give Matthew Stafford weapons. With their first pick they took the athletic
TE Eric Ebron as well as signing WR Golden Tate to be the number two
option. Reggie Bush and Joique Bell will
have a 50/50 split in the backfield, but both bring great pass-catching skills
out of the backfield. The back seven of
the Lions’ defense is their biggest weakness.
Suh and Nick Fairley clog up the rushing lanes in the middle, but a lack
of pressure on the edges (Ezekial Ansah needs to live up to his draft status)
and no shutdown corner leaves the Lions susceptible to big gains. The Lions have had a penchant to fold down
the stretch, especially last year losing their last few games when they just
needed a single win to make the playoffs.
This year will not be easier as they end the year with road trips to
Chicago and Green Bay which I think leaves them just outside of the playoffs.
The
Vikings drafted Teddy Bridgewater to be the quarterback of their future, but
will start Matt Cassel in week one. I
thought that Bridgewater was as ready as Bortles, so I was curious as to the
decision. I think what the Vikings’
coaches see is the likelihood of a very rough start. After a road game in St. Louis, the Vikings
get New England at home, at New Orleans, Atlanta, and at Green Bay. A loss in week one puts the Vikings at a
likely 0-5. There back half of the
schedule sees much worse defenses and teams in general, meaning I think we see
Bridgewater somewhere around the Detroit game in week six. This will not make Adrian Peterson happy as
he recently
voiced his desires to leave Minnesota.
He will have to toil against 8-man boxes for at least the first few
games, as Matt Cassel will not scare any DB’s from crowding the line.
EAST
Philadelphia Eagles, 9-7
New York Giants, 8-8
Washington Redskins, 7-9
Dallas Cowboys, 6-10
Chip
Kelly took the NFL by storm with his fast paced offense, and while it has
staying power I do not think it will be nearly as strong as last season. Along those lines, I am not a believer in
Nick Foles and think that the league will catch up to him this year. My bold prediction for this season: we see
Mark Sanchez in significant time at some point this season. There is a reason that Kelly went out of his
way to snatch up Sanchez. LeSean McCoy
crossed 1,600 yards last year, but there is a reason that he is +1200 (meaning
you bet $100 dollars to win $1,200) to do it again: the NFL defensive
coordinators are too smart to get beat that badly again all year. The real problem with the offense is its
effect on the defense: last in the league against the pass. When Philly is running so many plays at such
a fast pace, the defense will have to match it week in, week out, leading to
more injuries and fatigue on the defenders.
The Eagles also lose their top target in DeSean Jackson, but I think
Jeremy Maclin can bring the same dynamic as long as he stays healthy. With all that said, I still have the Eagles
winning the division. The other three
teams just are not that good. Period.
I
have the Giants in second by sheer default.
New York’s offensive line is in shambles, especially after Tom
Coughlin’s son-in-law had to retire due to injury. Eli will be working in a new offense for the
first time in his career, which could lead to even more interceptions if that’s
even possible. Rashad Jennings will get
the bulk of the RB load, which should mean a TON of receptions. If possible I would acquire him in any
fantasy leagues with PPR because Eli will be checking down to Jennings at least
5 or 6 times a game. The defense is
actually a decent unit, finishing top-15 against both the rush and pass. That decent defense combined with a so-so
schedule will keep the Giants around mediocrity.
I think that there is something to the notion
that this team might be better with Kirk Cousins over RG3. Jay Gruden brings his offense over from
Cincinnati, where Andy Dalton has led them to the playoffs three years in a
row. Cousins is more of a Dalton-type in
that he will sit in the pocket and let the reads progress, while Griffin will
just take off whenever the pocket collapses at all. I don’t think Griffin will stay healthy the
whole season and Cousins could impress, big time. The addition of DeSean Jackson takes away
from both he and Pierre Garcon’s fantasy value, as there will only be so many
targets to go around. On defense the
Washington pro football team will need Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan to play
at their highest level rushing the passer.
Deangelo Hall only plays two good games a year against the Cowboys, so
the other 14 the secondary is very suspect.
If the Redskins were in any other division I would have them around 4
wins.
And
then there is Dallas. There is a
distinct possibility that the Cowboys end the season with the best offense and
worst defense statistically. Romo looked
healthy at the end of the pre season, and the wobbled throws will iron out
after a full game. Dez Bryant is ready
to get paid and I feel very strongly about getting him at 10:1 to win the
receiving yards title. DeMarco Murray
showed he could play 14 games last year and that he is an elite back (5.2 yards
per carry, 9 touchdowns). The Cowboys
have three of the best lineman in the league at their respective positions: and
they are all 23 or younger. This offense
is built to score a ton of points now as well as to welcome a new quarterback
in the next few years once Romo goes his way. The defense will be appalling. The DeMarcus Ware and Jason Hatcher decisions
were right; those two needed to be let go so that the team could move forward. However without them, and with Sean Lee out
for the year already and Orlando Scandrick suspended for four games, Dallas
will be without its top four players form last year’s defense… that was the
worst in the league. Henry Melton should
help up front and hopefully Rolando McLain decides to live up to his potential,
but there is just no way this team gives up less than 30 points a game. While the offense is good, they will not be
historic enough to overcome such a bad defense.
The schedule does them no favors with extra games at Chicago and New
Orleans, and the NFC West. Six wins
could be generous.
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