Well I got off to
a strong start last week posting a 10-6 record against the number. So if you bet just $100 on each of my plays
then, you won over $400 including the teaser that hit. Vegas in general had a good weekend with
underdogs covering ten of the thirteen Sunday games. Home underdogs went 2-1 with only Dallas
crappin’ the bed. Touchdown underdogs (I
count it at 6.5 and up) were 3-2 against the spread and the only Double-Digit-Dog
(DDD) Jacksonville went up 17-0 before failing to cover in the end.
As
you may know if you have read my gambling picks previously, I follow the trends
in the LVH SuperContest very closely.
The SuperContest is where the majority of the best handicappers in the
world compete for a seven-figure prize off of just a $1,500 buy-in. They each pick any five games they want
against the spread and the person with the best record at the end wins. Last week, the top two overwhelming plays
both failed to cover, as well as three of the top five. They don’t release their selections until
Sunday morning most of the time, but they are worth a look. If there are a couple of overwhelmingly majority
picked games, I would go against it.
Like the saying goes, the hotels in Vegas weren’t built on winners.
I
started off on the right foot again by taking Baltimore based on the short-week
home team coming off of a loss over the short-week road team coming off of a
win theory. It is another trend to watch
as the season goes. Don't forget to check out my latest article for SKYLLZONE about hidden value in weekly drafts.
PANTHERS -2.5 over Lions
This almost follows the short-week
win/loss theory, except the Panthers won last week. The reason I still lean towards Carolina is
since Cam Newton did not play last week (and I’m guessing he starts against
Detroit) he will want to prove how invaluable he is to the team. I have these two teams exactly equal on my
power rankings, so the home team’s bonus on the line is enough for me to take
Carolina.
BILLS +1 over Dolphins
This line has been a Mexican
Jumping Bean going back and forth towards both teams being favored. I will stick with the Bills as the slight
home-underdog, especially with how high Miami is riding after beating the
Patriots. Buffalo feels good about
themselves after winning in Chicago, but I think Miami feels a little more
comfortable winning the division game against the division favorite. Buffalo could be sneaky good.
REDSKINS -6 over Jaguars
On paper and in my own thoughts, I
am not so sure that Jacksonville is the worse team of these two. With that said, the line at almost a
touchdown causes me to wonder why Vegas would want to push so hard for action
on Jacksonville. With almost two thirds
of the public money coming in on the Jags, I am going to go contrarian and take
Washington. I could be completely wrong,
and the NFC East just sucks, but the next two games will really help solve that
issue….
TITANS -3 over Cowboys
No one is as big of a Romo defender
as me, but that might have been his worst game yet last week. The thing is, they were not the normal “Romo
trying to make something happen on 3rd and long” interceptions. He looked like he had not had enough practice
(he hadn’t) and there was no zip on his throws: they were just fluttering up
there. I sincerely hope it was rust and
not his back. Either way, I’m taking
Tennessee here out of sheer principle.
GIANTS +3.5 over Cardinals
This is the epitome of one team
looking absolutely dreadful last week against another completely out performing
expectations for a win over a solid contender.
If this game was last week then the Giants would have been a 4 point
favorite by the consensus Vegas power rankings and being at home. I don’t think Arizona is that good nor do I
think the Giants are that bad, so I will take the touchdown’s worth of value.
VIKINGS +3.5 over Patriots
Everyone has heard the stat now
about Belichick and Brady not losing back-to-back games. They are also 10-1 against the spread off of
a loss as a road favorite. I also picked
them to win the Super Bowl. I still
can’t take them here, especially with the public backing New England on well
over 80% of the tickets. All of the
sharps and wiseguys agree with me on Minnesota, as they have bet the line down
from 5 to 3.5 and it could go even lower.
The Vikings could pull of this upset and put themselves in the talk of
being a true contender. Or I’m an idiot
of betting against Brady off of a loss.
BROWNS +7 over Saints
In no way do I think that Cleveland
can win this game. However, that is one
gambling rule I have come around on, especially when it is a home underdog
getting over a touchdown. As we saw last
week, Hoyer and Co. can come back on huge leads and their defense really is not
that bad. I think this line is just too
high, and the public loves New Orleans way too much (over 90%!!).
BENGALS -5 over Falcons
After the Falcons’ impressive win
last week, you would think these two teams would be a little closer. But with Baltimore’s strong win last night,
and Vegas keeping the line in between the two key numbers, they are still
trying to force action on Atlanta. I can see it being a letdown game for the
Falcons after the OT-thriller last week and feeling like they got the 1-1 out
of the first two games that they needed.
Rams +7 over BUCCANEERS
Both of these teams looked pretty
bad last week, but only one of them was starting a backup quarterback against a
starting quarterback. In fact, Tampa was
starting its starter and against a backup in the opposite way. The Rams will not be able to score a lot with
anyone, but their defense is stout. With
the total set at 36, this figures to be a low-scoring game, which plays into St.
Louis’ favor, especially getting a touchdown.
CHARGERS +6.5 over Seahawks
Another game of a home team coming
off of a demoralizing loss against a road team coming off of a dominant
win. I’m definitely going to spend the
juice to push the line to a full touchdown.
The Seahawks only won two games on the road last season by more than a
touchdown. In fact, against playoff
teams last year on the road, Seattle went 1-2 with a 5 point win at
Carolina. They are just not as dominant
of a team on the road, so I will take the touchdown-home-underdog.
RAIDERS +3 over Texans
Was there any doubt that I would
take the clean sweep of six home-dogs?
This is yet another example of a home-dog coming off of a loss against a
road team coming off of a win. This
theory will make or break my week, but I would not be shocked if the teams
coming off of losses sweep the games against the number. The Raiders went cross-country for a noon
start and covered which is a hard thing to do.
Houston just beat the Redskins, which is not a hard thing to do.
Jets +10 over PACKERS
As a contrarian/underdog better,
this is a very difficult one to roll with.
Even with a 4-ponit home field advantage to Green Bay, this still would
only be a 9.5 point spread by my power rankings. I just have to stick to DDD’s to get the
overall value of betting on them.
Chiefs +13 over BRONCOS
Once again, I have to stick with
the DDD’s. I have a bad feeling about
these last two.
Bears +7 over 49ERS
This one is a little trickier,
since the team coming off of a loss is the road team, but the loss was so
demoralizing that I think the trend still is in play. San Francisco really didn’t play that well
for winning a game by 11 points. I mean
the Cowboys gave them a defensive touchdown 2 plays into the game, had four
turnovers that were basically all unforced, including one in the end zone, and
it was still in doubt late. I would not
be shocked if the Bears win this game, but this whole pick comes with an
asterisk that Marshall/Jeffery play.
Eagles +3 over COLTS
This would seem to fit the team
coming off of a loss against a team coming off of a win, but Indianapolis
played terribly in the first half last week and only looked good when Denver
backed off. Philly played as bad as it
possibly good for an entire half, and still won by 17 points. I think this is a complete toss-up, so I will
take the field goal of value.
10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Broncos -3, Saints/Browns UNDER
59.5, Titans +7
Others I Like:
Bucs/Rams OVER 26, Bears +17,
Packers PK, Chargers +16.5, Bills +11, Giants/Cardinals UNDER 54
Fantasy Sleepers of the Week: Jake Locker, QB, Tennessee and Jermaine
Gresham, TE, Cincinnati
I was just going to take Locker
against the terrible Cowboys’ defense, but Matthew Berry already went off about
him. Locker does have a solid string of
games together now, and might be making a move toward a legit QB1. Gresham will now be the sole TE target with
Tyler Eifert out with a dislocated elbow.
I think the Bengals/Falcons will be a shootout and Gresham should get a
touchdown.
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 10-6
Season: 11-6
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