NFL Week 4 Picks

Quick picks this week since I’m celebrating my 1-year anniversary to my amazing wife.

Ravens -2.5 over STEELERS

Good thing I got this TOT game in at 2.5.

Jets +1.5 over Dolphins

I have no idea why the Dolphins are favored.

Jaguars +9.5 over COLTS

I locked this bet in before the Andrew Luck news.

Texans +6.5 over FALCONS

Buy the half point and roll with Watt.

BUCCANEERS +3 over Panthers

Carolina does not seem like a good enough team to be 4-0.

BILLS -5 over Giants

Buffalo might be really good.

BEARS +3.5 over Raiders

Oakland as a road favorite? Get out of here. TOT game.

REDSKINS +3 over Eagles

I think Philadelphia deserves the same questioning of road favoritism. TOT game.

Chiefs +3.5 over BENGALS

The Chiefs have started with a BRUTAL schedule (@ Houston, Denver, @Green Bay) and I think their lines are skewed. TOT game.

Browns +7 over CHARGERS

I like the backdoor potential.

49ERS +7 over Packers

You almost always have to take a home dog of a TD or more. TOT game.

Vikings +7 over BRONCOS

The real play is the under.

Rams +7 over CARDINALS

At some point Arizona won’t cover…. TOT game.

Cowboys +3 over SAINTS

TOT game.  I don’t feel good about it.

Lions +10 over SEAHAWKS

I have a bad feeling about this one, but it’s a TOT game.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Packers +3, Broncos/Vikings UNDER 54, and Seahawks PK

Others I Like:

Saints +7, Saints/Cowboys UNDER 59, Redskins +13, Bills +5, Jets +11.5, Bears/Raiders UNDER 55

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Gary Barnidge, TE, Cleveland Browns

This guy has stud potential and no matter who is playing at QB for Cleveland they will be checking down to him.  Still owned in less than 40% of leagues, jump on it now.

This Week: 1 – 0

Last Week:  6 – 10

Season: 22 – 26 - 1

TOT Last Week: 4 - 4

TOT Season: 7 – 8

NFL Week 3 Picks

GIANTS -3.5 over Redskins

TOT gets off to a strong start to the week.  Also, anyone who started trying to say that Washington had a chance to win the division should be fired.

RAMS PK over Steelers

This is the epitome of a TOT game: everyone forgets Pittsburgh losing by a touchdown in week one while the Rams beat the two-time defending NFC Champions.  St. Louis had to deal with the Seattle hangover (still winless) and that led to a surprising loss to Washington.  Best bet of the week right here.

Chargers +3 over VIKINGS

TOT game #3: This is the biggest toss-up of the week.  The bets are even coming in at almost exactly 50% each way.  I will take the field goal of value to go with TOT.

TEXANS -6.5 over Buccaneers

Tampa took advantage of a hurt Drew Brees causing three turnovers and limiting New Orleans to 219 yards passing.  On the other hand, I liked what I saw from Ryan Mallett and think that the Texans will be able to run on Tampa.  It is also a TOT game.

Eagles +3 over JETS

Philadelphia cannot be as bad as they looked last week… right?  This is another TOT game and DeMarco Murray will finally break out.  The Jets defense is getting too much love and will have a rude awakening.

Saints +3.5 (or higher) over PANTHERS

This game is off the board right now due to Drew Brees’ injury.  I think even if he plays, that Sean Payton gears it back towards the run game and New Orleans springs the upset.

Jaguars +14 over PATRIOTS

Both teams won last week, so there is no TOT potential.  I will be betting with the underdog getting two touchdowns or more in every game this season.  It’s like home-dogs: bet the same every single game to try and turn a profit.

RAVENS -2.5 over Bengals

Baltimore’s defense is solid, even with the loss of Terrell Suggs.  Andy Dalton has not had an Andy Dalton game yet, and I think it comes out this Sunday.

BROWNS -3 over Raiders

Surprisingly, both teams are coming off of wins.  I think that McCown might be the right choice because advanced metrics pointed toward Johnny Manziel getting quite lucky with bad decisions/throws.  Take away the two long bombs and his game was sub-par.  

Fun fact: the last time the Raiders lost by less than 3 points or won on the road was in 2013 against a Texans team that finished 1-15.  Actually, the last time the Raiders won a road game against a team that did not finish with the worst record in the NFL was in 2011.

TITANS +3.5 over Colts

Are we sure the Colts are good?  It is a question I have seen the first couple of weeks but now I might be buying some stock in it.  This is going one of two ways to me: Colts by 30 or Titans by 10.  I think I might be leaning toward Tennessee at home…

COWBOYS +2 over Falcons

Over the past five seasons, the first game that a starting quarterback misses the team rallies for a 23-11 record ATS.  I am going with the trend.

49ers +6.5 over CARDINALS

I’ve picked against the Cardinals two weeks in a row and I am not stopping now! This is also a TOT game… that’s all I got.

Bears +14.5 over SEAHAWKS

In one of my survivor pools, there was over 200 people to start, and just 2 after last week.  If you have Seattle still then you are safe this week.  However, more than two touchdowns and the backup quarterback’s first start are too much to pass up.

DOLPHINS -3 over Bills

I think Miami will bounce back after a tough loss to Jacksonville.  It is the Dolphins’ home opener and the Bills have not won on the road (outside of a meaningless Week 17 game last year) in almost a year.

LIONS +3.5 over Broncos

At 0-2, this game just means more to Detroit than Denver.  It is also another TOT game.

Chiefs +7 over PACKERS

Kansas City gets basically four days of extra rest due to them playing Thursday and Green Bay playing late Sunday night.  The Packers also played Seattle and the week after playing the Seahawks a team has still not covered in over a year and a half.  It is also a TOT game.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Patriots -4, Seahawks -4.5, Rams +10

Others I Like:

Patriots/Jaguars OVER 36.5, Saints/Panthers UNDER 55, Eagles +12, 49ers +16.5, Browns +7, Chargers +13

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: James Starks, RB,  Green Bay Packers

Last week, Brandon Coleman was screwed by Drew Brees’ hurt shoulder. Twice he was looking at him in the end zone but could not deliver the pass.  This week I’m giving you Starks against the Chiefs.  Lacy is questionable and even if he plays, Starks should get a fair amount of targets.

This Week: 1 – 0

Last Week: 8 – 8

Season: 15 – 16 – 1

TOT Last Week: 3 - 4

TOT Season: 3 - 4

NFL Week 2 Picks

Alright, first week is in the books and I finished slightly up with a winning teaser. Now, I can really put The Opposite Theory to play.  In short, I use TOT as a team that did not cover the previous week over a team that did.  It finished 37-19 last season for a hefty profit so I will be keeping track of it again this year.

Broncos +3 over CHIEFS

Twitter pick that I put a sizeable bet on. It’s still not time to bet against Peyton Manning in a prime-time game.

Texans +3 over PANTHERS

Our first TOT game of the season! I would take the Texans anyway with Luke Kuechly out for Carolina and Houston being able to run on them now.

Buccaneers +10 over SAINTS

Jameis has serious back door cover potential, and I do not like giving double digits with a bad defense.

STEELERS -5.5 over 49ers

I’m counting this as a TOT game because pushing, but still losing by 7 should count as not covering.  San Francisco is not as good as they seem because as I said last week the Vikings would not be up to snuff just yet.

VIKINGS -3 over Lions

Speaking of Minnesota, I think they will look like the Cowboys last season: everyone kind of writes them off after a week one loss to San Francisco, but then their star (AP/Romo) gets his feet under him and they go on a run.

BILLS -1 over Patriots

I might end up regretting this one, but the Patriots’ offensive line should not be able to handle the ferocious pass rush of Buffalo.

BEARS +2 over Cardinals

TOT game #3. Alshon Jeffery will probably not play, and that might kick the Bears into another gear knowing they can’t rely on him to bail Cutler out.

BROWNS +1.5 over Titans

I do not think Johnny Manziel will play well, but Mariota’s output can only go down after a perfect quarterback rating last week.  Cleveland’s defense is just good enough to handle Tennessee and a reeled back game plan for Mr. Football will help.

Chargers +3 over BENGALS

I might have under-valued the Chargers in the pre-season.  They looked pretty good last week on offense and I think Cincy is getting over-valued after a blowout win over the Raiders.

REDSKINS +3.5 over Rams

It’s a TOT game, home underdog by more than a field goal, and most importantly, last season the week after teams played Seattle (in a normal week, no Monday/Thursday or Bye’s) they did not cover once.

GIANTS -2.5 over Falcons

This is not quite a TOT since the Giants did cover the spread, but I still like them to bounce back. 

RAIDERS +4.5 over Ravens

It’s another home dog by more than a field goal, and it’s not like the Ravens looked that good against Denver.  I think Oakland slows the game down if McGloin ends up starting and keeps this game close.

JAGUARS +7 over Dolphins

I’m buying the half point to get a home underdog of a touchdown, as well as a TOT candidate.  This is a tease-both-ways game in which the Dolphins will probably not blow them out, but just keep it close enough for a win.

EAGLES -6 over Cowboys

This is another close TOT game, but since Dallas did not cover in their win it does not technically qualify.  Either way, Chip Kelly knows that if they lose this game there is a more than 50% chance that the Cowboys have effectively a three-game lead on the whole division after just two weeks.  He will throw in every trick he has to win.

Seahawks +3.5 over PACKERS

Seattle will miss Kam Chancellor, but they know that they cannot start 0-2 with a decent chance every team in their division will be 2-0.  This qualifies as a TOT game and I think Wilson makes enough plays for the win.

COLTS -7 over Jets

The Jets win last week makes this game slightly less important to them and the Colts loss made it extremely more important to them.  It’s a surprising TOT game and I think Andrew Luck bounces back strongly.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Colts +3, Patriots +11, Buccaneers +20

Others I Like:

Eagles +4, Seahawks +13.5, Browns/Titans Under 53, Texans +13, Raiders +14.5, Giants +7.5

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Brandon Coleman, WR, New Orleans Saints

I will try to give you someone that is not only available in most leagues, but whose price is right in weekly leagues.  Last week in my weekly article at SoCalledFantasyExperts.com, I gave Carson Palmer as my top play and he led the Sunday/Monday games in scoring. 

This week I’m giving you the wide out from New Orleans, Brandon Coleman.  I wrote in my article this week that Coleman had just one fewer target than Brandin Cooks last week and more than Marques Colsten.  He managed 14.1 points in PPR leagues and gets an awful Tampa secondary, yet is only owned in 37.1% of leagues. Get him now.

This Week: 1 – 0

Last Week: 7 – 8 – 1

Season: 8 – 8 – 1

TOT This Season: 0 – 0

TOT Last Season: 37 - 19

NFL Week 1 Picks

And the NFL is officially back!! No more Patriots cheating talk (whoops)! No more off the field violence (damn)! ….

Nevertheless, I had a pretty long preview for the entire NFL yesterday, so I am going to stick to just the picks here.

Friendly reminder that I will be going with The Opposite Theory again this season, but since it’s week one, there are no games in play.

PATRIOTS -7 over Steelers

My feel for the game was right, but Ben backed into a push with a late TD.

BEARS +7 over Packers

I’m buying the half point because I refuse to give a touchdown with a home dog.

Chiefs +1 over TEXANS

The last five teams to be featured on Hard Knocks went 0-4-1 against the spread in Week 1, and it took a late comeback just to get the push.

Browns +3 over JETS

Neither quarterback is any good, but I think the Browns have a better defense, and the second best offensive line in the league.  Start Isaiah Crowell if you have him.

BILLS +3 over Colts

80% of all action in Vegas on this game is coming in on the Colts… I think we have the Sucker Bet of the Week so I will take Buffalo.

REDSKINS +3.5 over Dolphins

Nope, this might be the SBotW.  86% of the handle is coming in on Miami, and I am still not sure why this line isn’t creeping towards a touchdown.

JAGUARS +3 over Panthers

Home underdogs should be bet the same way, all the way through. This line feels just about right, so I will continue taking the home dogs.

RAMS +4 over Seahawks

I think I would lean towards St. Louis here anyway because it should be a toss-up.  Seattle will be getting used to a new offensive line and Jimmy Graham, while missing Kam Chancellor.  Then you throw in the home dog factor and I’m in on St. Louis.

New Orleans +2.5 over CARDINALS

Arizona is due for a let down from regression this season.  They were the luckiest team in the league in terms of point differential/record and close games last year, so I think they start off with losing a close game late.

Lions +3 over CHARGERS

This game is off the board as of now, but I did find the 3-point line for an off-shore site.  At this point I realized I had taken every single underdog…. And I feel really good about it.  Maybe this is a market-correction week in which Vegas sets the lines so that the more publicly favored teams will draw in more bets.

Titans +3 over BUCCANEERS

I like Mariota to pick up the NFL game quicker than Winston.

RAIDERS +3.5 over Bengals

Are the Bengals that good?  Last year, every one of their losses was by 10+ points.  Their only wins against playoff teams were against a hobbled Peyton Manning late in the year, and sweeping the Ravens early in the year.  I think they are in for a free-fall.

Ravens +4 over BRONCOS

I liked the Broncos, but once I’m this far deep with all dogs why switch it up?

Giants +7 over COWBOYS

I’m buying a half point here, as well.  Dallas will take some time to get their defense together as well as their running back situation.  Beckham will probably have a field day with Carr/Claiborne and this shootout will definitely be within a touchdown.

FALCONS +3 over Eagles

I’m all-in on Atlanta this season, and this starts it off strongly.

49ERS +2 over Vikings

I like Minnesota this year and am down on San Francisco, yet this feels like last season when the 49ers show their best stuff in their first game.  Peterson hasn’t had actual contact in over a year now, so I think he needs a week to get going.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Giants +17, Cowboys/Giants OVER 41, Falcons/Eagles OVER 44

Others I Like:

Bears/Packers OVER 38.5, Chiefs +11, Browns +13, Browns/Jets UNDER 51, Titans/Bucs UNDER 53, and Bears +17

No Fantasy sleeper to start the season, but please check out my Weekly Value Based Drafting piece.

This Week: 0 – 0 – 1

TOT : 0 – 0 – 0

Last Season: 122 – 97 - 2