Almost every year ESPN and the network broadcasting the game try to make it out to be the biggest and best Super Bowl matchup ever. For the first time since at least the Giants/Bills game, maybe even as far back as the second Cowboys/Steelers matchup, I think the hype is deserved. You have the greatest offense in this history of the sport against the best passing defense ever, when factoring in era.
The Broncos offense is almost self-explanatory at this point: most points ever, most passing touchdowns in a season, most passing yards in a season, etc. Bill Barnwell broke down how even adjusting for the highest scoring season in NFL history, Denver’s offense is the most prolific and efficient in regards to the league average. Peyton Manning’s ability to pick a defensive scheme apart has become a thing of beauty. He takes what the defense knows it is giving him then exploits the cracks in the system whenever they present themselves.
Seattle’s defense is right on par in their level of play compared to the Broncos’ offense. There are no all-time records to back them up, but to think they are not as good as the record holders is being ignorant to the changing in style of play throughout the whole league. The Seahawks were able to put up stifling pass defense numbers during a season with the most 4,000 yard passers ever. Their pass defense in relation to the average throughout the league can be quantified as the best ever. They basically turn every opposing quarterback into someone who has started for the Browns the past couple of seasons.
On the outside we have the classic good vs. evil matchup of offense and defense. The level of play on either side of the ball matches up almost exactly in prominence as well as publicity. What makes this game truly special though is the almost identical path these two teams have taken. They have identical records but it goes much further than that. Both teams were the number one seed in their conference. Both teams finished 7-1 at home and 6-2 on the road. Both teams vanquished their arch nemesis in the conference championships. The real similarity though, goes with the way each team has played throughout the season.
Seattle and Denver each have three losses on the season and the fashion of the losses is almost identical. Both teams lost to the Indianapolis Colts, an overtime game to the second best team in the conference which they then defeated in the conference championship games, and a home game to a divisional opponent late in the season (Arizona and San Diego). They also each had close wins over bad teams early in the season (Seattle over Houston and Denver over the Cowboys) where parts of the team did not play well but they got the TLF to go their way when it mattered. These two teams are about as equal, but drastically built-different as you can possibly get in the NFL.
The battle that everyone will focus on is the Denver passing game against the Seattle defense. The key matchups are not in the secondary though; they are at the line of scrimmage. Manning is best when he steps up into the pocket to deliver his wobbly but acutely accurate middle of the field throws to the crossing patterns that Denver is so fond of running. Seattle has the best defensive line depth in the league and will be able to get pressure up the middle with both starters, Tony McDaniel and Brandon Mebane as well as their backups Jordan Hill and Clinton McDonald. The real catch that I think Pete Carroll has up his sleeve is using a 3-4 alignment in obvious passing situations bringing Bruce Irvin off the edge on one side, sliding Michael Bennett inside because of his massive size, and then having a Cliff Avril, Red Bryant and Chris Clemons combination coming on either side of him. The Broncos’ guard tandem of Louis Vasquez and Zane Beadles is good, but their tackles cannot handle that kind of pass rush.
The Seahawks will then be able to get pressure with just a 4- or 5-man pass rush, leaving six or seven in the back to cover the four Broncos. Factor in Richard Sherman taking one flank out completely and you have five/six over three with Peyton Manning forced out of the pocket. The physicality of the Seattle defensive backs will push the timing off of Denver’s routes, and Peyton will have to go off of the normal plan to find open receivers. This combination of coverage scheme and interior pass rush will effectively contain this dominant offense.
Will Seattle be able to shut Denver down completely? Of course not; the Seahawks’ offense will have to operate efficiently and still get to the mid-to-high 20’s to win the game. I imagine that John Fox will pack the box and make Russell Wilson beat them because their depleted defensive front seven will not be able to contain Marshawn Lynch without help from the back end. Seattle has some road plowers up front in Russell Okung and Max Unger, but their pass blocking is not at the same elite level. The Seahawks’ kryptonite has been edge rushers with Robert Quinn, Chris Long, Calais Campbell, Robert Mathis and Whitney Mercilus combining for 12.5 sacks in just four games. Denver has arguably the best speed edge rusher in the league with Von Miller, but his torn ACL will keep him out of this contest. I truly think he could have been the X-Factor in winning the game for Denver, but without him Russell Wilson will have the time he needs against the front four pass rush. When the Broncos blitz, they will be blitzing the best yards-per-play offense in the league against five or more pass rushers.
The bottom line is I think the Seattle front four completely and devastatingly outplays the Denver front four. I see a similar game to Super Bowl XLII when the Giants pressured Tom Brady all game and were able to make just enough plays on offense to win. The differences are obviously that the Denver offense is better than that Patriots team and this Seattle defense is significantly better than that Giants team. I see the Seahawks pressuring Manning into making hurried throws as well as forcing him to move out of the pocket, where we have seen him make the majority of his mistakes. I think Russell Wilson will utilize his secondary options of Doug Baldwin and Zach Miller in the passing game to make Denver pay for blitzing.
The spread opened at Seattle -2 some places, and has been bet all the way to Denver -3. Over 80% of all money in Vegas is coming in on the Broncos. Casinos keep a separate account of how much money is made/lost on the Super Bowl and only twice in the history of the game has Vegas taken a loss. It would take a monumental amount of action on Seattle to swing it back to even, so if Denver wins, Vegas loses. Vegas always wins. Seattle over Denver, 27-23.
Prop Bets
MVP
Richard Sherman +2000
Doug Baldwin +3000
Who won the game for Seattle against San Francisco? I.e. if that was the Super Bowl, who would have had the hype to get the MVP award? As we know, the MVP is mostly about hype as much as who actually played the most vital role. I think Doug Baldwin would have won the MVP for his 106 yards, touchdown, and huge kickoff return against San Francisco. I think he can have a similar game against Denver. I also think that if Sherman gets an interception he will be in the conversation. Either way, at 30-1 and 20-1 these odds are too juicy to pass up.
Peyton Manning UNDER 1.5 Rush Attempts
I like this prop at normal juice, but at the -165 it has gotten to it loses value. Kneel-downs count as rushing attempts, so if you think Denver will win then the over is probably the play. Even then, he could be stuck at one so I think the Under is strong here.
Shortest Rushing Touchdown OVER 1.5 yards (even money)
No matter the teams I would like this bet at even money. Especially with the Seahawks power running game usually getting that last yard on the carry before, or Manning going play-action, this bet feels solid. The only real scare would be a pass interference in the end zone.
Distance of Russell Wilson’s first Touchdown Pass: OVER 14.5 yards (No TD=No action)
Along the same lines as the last bet, I feel like Seattle will pound the ball once inside the 15, and have success doing it. So with the qualifier up that there is no action with no touchdown passes, I like the odds that Wilson’s TD pass will be of some length.
Which will be longer: First punt of the game or longest touchdown? First Punt at +140
Dustin Colquitt’s over/under for his first punt is 42.5 yards and John Ryan’s 50.5 yards, so the average would be 46.5 yards. With that logic, the longest touchdown would have to be near fifty yards, while the line is only 44.5 (which I like the under). I feel like Seattle will thwart the big play, so anything better than even money feels like a steal.
First Interception Recorded: Seahawks -135
As I said in my breakdown, I think that the Seattle pass rush forces some bad decisions by Peyton. I also think Russell Wilson will take extra care of the ball and pull it down to run rather than force it.
Russell Wilson Rushing Yards: OVER 32/Longest Rush OVER 13.5 yards
Along the lines of pulling the ball down, I think Russell Wilson passes his season average of 33 yards a game considering the only other running quarterback to face Denver, Terrelle Pryror has almost 100 yards on just 9 carries. I think he can get one long run in against the Denver blitz.
Total Seahawks Rushing Yards: OVER 132.5
With that said, I think Seattle easily surpasses this total. If Wilson chips in the over 32, that leaves just 100 to get between Robert Turbin, Marshawn Lynch and even a possible Percy Harvin carry. I mean just adding up their three over/under totals gets you to 137.5, so there is at least 5 yards of value.
Seahawks Defense OVER 1.5 sacks
In my breakdown I also said I see the pass rush getting Manning down a few times and this number seems quite low. Peyton will look to not force anything in the cold and prefer to take the sack rather than make a risky throw while getting hit.
Peyton Manning Interception before Touchdown: +240
Along those lines I still think that Seattle gets to Peyton early. The odds are almost too good to pass up at almost two and a half to one.
Total number of Broncos with Rush Attempt: OVER 3.5 (+135)
Whether it is C.J. Anderson, Ronnie Hillman or Virgil Green, the Broncos have given carries to their third back. I like the way Green looked in his one carry against New England and would not be surprised to see him get a couple in the game. It is also a good hedge, possible double down with the Manning Under 1.5 rushes.
Julius Thomas Total Receiving Yards: UNDER 51.5
The past three tight ends have combined for 8 catches for just 54 yards against Seattle, and those three would be: Jared Cook, Vernon Davis and Jimmy Graham, probably the most athletic three tight ends in the league along with Thomas. In fact, in three games against Davis, two against Graham, two against Cook, and one against Tony Gonzalez, the highest yardage total for an opposing tight end was just 42 yards.
Kevin Love +2.5 Points+Rebounds vs. Montee Ball Rushing Yards
Kevin Love averages 25 points and 13 rebounds a game facing an Atlanta team that gives up more than 101 points a game and is without Al Horford rebounding the in the middle. Montee Ball’s over/under total is just 35.5 yards and averaged just 34 yards a game this season.
Marshawn Lynch +8.5 more yards than Boston Celtics Total Points
Boston is scoring just 94 points a game and is a bit banged up right now. Lynch’s over/under for yards is at 94.5 so you are getting almost ten yards of value.
Tiger Woods’ Birdies +0.5 over Demaryius Thomas Catches
I don’t think that Thomas will have too many opportunities in the game, and Tiger had 4 birdies on just the front nine in Dubai during his first round. He will definitely have the putting opportunity to win this bet, and I think he makes the most of it.
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