In my opinion, Peyton Manning is the best football player to ever play the game. This statement either sparks an immediate counter-argument for a different quarterback, makes one think about the possiblity that it is true, or brings a resounding confirmation of agreement. To go even further though, I do not think Peyton is the best player right now, even after throwing for 55 touchdowns and over 5,400 yards (and I will go into that further next week in my first annual quarterback rankings). This is where a quarterback argument gets tricky.
There really should only be eight quarterbacks in the arguemnt for best ever: Manning, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Troy Aikman, Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Johnny Unitas, and Bart Starr. As good as Starr and Unitas were in their eras, they basically played a completely separate game; it was like checkers to the chess that is now played, so they are off my list. Aikman does not get much credit as a member of this group outside of Dallas due to his injury-shortened career and Hall-of-Fame surrounding cast, so he is out. Marino and Favre are a bit over-rated (sad to say, as Marino used to by my favorite quarterback ever) due to counting statistics and getting to just sling the ball all around. Neither was able to control the game like the top three, so those two are out.
That leaves us with Manning, Brady and Montana. To me, Montana is not on the same level as the other two. As good as Marvin Harrison or Randy Moss have been for Brady/Manning, neither had the ability to throw to the greatest receiver ever for the majority of his career. Montana also did not have to deal with the exponentially better defensive strategies that are employed today. He then had the best defense of the decade to make his job much easier. So is he a victim of his time frame and team? Yeah, probably. But if we are judging by what the quarterback has shown on the field, then those two factors have to be taken into account, eliminating him from the conversation.
So that leaves the starters for the AFC Championship Game. Once again it is my opinion, but Peyton gets the nod and it is not even close. The only advantages Brady has are Super Bowls and winning percentage. Every other statistic, seasonal or career, is a win for Manning and some are not even close as Peyton closes in on the all-time records. For those thinking that Super Bowls are the most important, I have a question for you: why? Why should we hail Brady for winning with one of the top 2 or 3 coaches in the history of the game? Why should we demote Manning for having the lower rated defense than Brady in every single season except the one he won the Super Bowl? Why should Brady get more credit for starting his career with a playoff ready team, while Manning started with the worst team over the previous 4 years?
Tom Brady won his three Super Bowls during the first four years that he was a starter and started his career 10-0 in the playoffs. After that last Super Bowl, the Patriots defense lost the majority of its veteran leaders, Brady was asked to do more, and he had superior talent around him on offense (until this season) yet had a losing record in the playoffs until this past Sunday. I believe that Brady gets way too much credit for those Super Bowl seasons. Just look at the stats: in those nine playoff games, Brady averaged 216 yards passing a game, with just 11 touchdowns. He managed the games to victory, which is not a sign of the greatest quarterback, but the greatest game manager. Manning has never had the luxury of getting to manage a team to victory (much like a much maligned Dallas signal-caller). Manning has literally been the coach on the field, and is the most prepared and intelligent person to play the position. He has had to quarterback his team to victory, not manage it.
So let’s say that a player reaches his prime at 27. From the age of 27 on, Brady is 7-7 in the playoffs with two Super Bowl appearances and zero wins. Peyton Manning is 9-8 since turning 27, with two Super Bowls, and one win. So in their primes, Manning even has a better playoff resume than Brady. Now what if Brady was to win Sunday, and go on to another Super Bowl? Would that change how I look at the two? The simple answer is no.
At some point, we need to stop judging the ultimate team sport where the most players have a say in the game by one single position. It is definitly the most important and difficult spot to play in all of sports, but quarterbacks should not be solely judged by wins and losses. This goes hand in hand with the ignorant theory of being “clutch”. If I was to ask you who is the most “clutch” athlete in the history of sports, who would be your first choice? Most people think Michael Jordan, who hit 25 game-winning shots over his NBA career. His percentage on such shots? 41%, or right below his average for the rest of the game. So in theory, Michael Jordan was worse shooting the last shot of the game than he was in the first 47 and a half minutes. Another prime example is Kobe Bryant, who has made just 14 of his last 56 game winning shot opportunities.
Taking it over to football, Manning and Brady each had multiple games this season where a score could win the game yet they threw an interception to lose it. To think that a player suddenly plays harder or something because it is the last drive as opposed to the first drive of the game is ludicrous. They try their hardest to score every single time they get the ball. The numbers don’t lie: both quarterbacks convert game-winning drives at a similar rate to every other drive. So to say that Brady is more “clutch” than Manning, and that is why he is better is illogical. It is just a point that some clown on ESPN said because he was too lazy to look at the actual statistics and trends.
With that said, I think we do need to buy in to the ESPN hype for this game. I mean, how many times are we ever going to be able to watch arguably the best two palyers ever at a position face off under such circumstances? In the previous high leverage matchups between these two, their legacy was not as certain just yet. So let us not worry about what the game means to each individual quarterback, and just watch/appreciate the greatness that we are lucky enough to see.
Some quick stats/trends for Championship weekend:
· For only the 4th time in the past twenty NFL seasons do we have both top seeds in each conference in their respective championship games. In each one of the previous occurences, one of the top seeds and one of the second seeds moved on to the Super Bowl. In fact, only once (2003, Saints/Colts) in that time frame has there been an all-top-seed Super Bowl.
· A team that scores 40 points in a playoff game (Patriots) is just 4-22 against the spread in the game immediately after in the same season.
· Peyton Manning has not lost to the same team twice in a season in the past six years.
· Russell Wilson has lost just one home game since his sophmore year at North Carolina State.
· This is the first time that the Patriots have been an underdog in a playoff game since 2006… when they lost to Manning’s Colts in the AFC Championship game.
· The 49ers/Seahawks have gone under 36 in their last 5 meetings
· San Francisco has played only one home game since December 8th, yet are still on an 8-game winning streak.
Patriots +6 over BRONCOS
This line started at 7, went down to 4.5, now has been bet back up to 6. I know that it goes against everything I just wrote about my man-crush on Peyton Manning, but I trust Bill Belichick more than John Fox. Blount has been a monster the past month and the Broncos’ defense is missing just as much as the New England’s unit. The Patriots will use the Giants’ plan of attack against them in their two Super Bowl matchups to get to Peyton at all costs with their pass rush while running the ball down Denver’s throat.
49ers +3.5 over SEAHAWKS
Once again, Colin Kaepernick gets too much credit for his team’s dominant win. Kaep definitely will owe Michael Crabtree a tip once he gets his big contract, because Crabtree bails out his horrendous throws time and again to keep drives alive. The San Francisco defense is playing with more confidance after their destruction of Carolina’s short-yardage game and they are certainly not scared of Beast Mode. I think all the talk of the home-field advantage has turned into a rally point for the 49ers and they keep it within a field goal for sure.
Parlay of the Week:
Patriots moneyline +200 with Seahawks moneyline of -190: $100 bet returns $352. Should the Patriots win, you can then hedge with the 49eres at +3.5 and have a nice middle to get a huge return.
10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Not many options, but if I had to choose I’d go with Patriots +15.5, 49ers +13.5, 49ers/Seahawks UNDER 49.5
Last Week: 2-2
Playoffs: 4-3-1
Overall: 139-117-8
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