Wild Card Round Picks

After an awful close to the season, let’s look at some playoff picks!

COLTS +1.5 over Chiefs

I thought this line would be closer to 7 rather than just a field goal.  That makes it a candidate for a sucker bet, but I cannot get over the quality of teams that these two have beaten.  Kansas City has one single win over a playoff team and it was Philadelphia before they really got going.  The Colts have beaten the three Super Bowl favorites.  I just think Andrew Luck comes to play and takes a leap toward super-stardom.  I also just saw that this line has flipped all the way towards KC.  So do you really want to bet against that much heavy action on the Chiefs?

EAGLES-2.5 over Saints

Bill Barnwell broke it down on Grantland, and the Drew Brees-outdoors theory is really overblown.  The difference is not significantly more than any other quarterback on the road, it just gets reiterated again and again because of how great Brees is at home.  With that said, this seems like a sucker bet.  I mean, did you see what Jason Witten did to the Eagles’ linebackers last week?  It was the best game of his season.  Now, Jimmy Graham gets to attack that weakness?  What about the quarterback matchup?  Basically a rookie in Foles against a future Hall of Famer with a Super Bowl ring?  Then there are the head coaches: a rookie head coach who was coaching the Fiesta Bowl last season at this time against the best offensive mind in the league, who has also won a Super Bowl.  Yet, the Eagles are favored?  Sucker. Bet.  I’ll take Philly.

Chargers +7 over BENGALS

The Chargers did not lose by more than 10 all year long, and if I am going to give a touchdown, to win the bet the odds say that you will have to win by 10 or more (simply because the likelihood of an 8 or 9 point difference is so much rarer).  In all honesty, I think this is a toss-up game, decided by the last drive.  The Chargers defense is seen as its weakness: I’ve seen many talking heads say that it is the worst unit overall in the playoffs.  You know, the defense that has not given up more than 24 points since November, and held the Broncos under 30 TWICE.  I think they step up and keep this game close, and I trust Phillip Rivers a little bit more than Andy Dalton.  I also think Keenan Allen is the real deal and will offset the advantage brought by A.J. Green. 

PACKERS +3 over 49ers

73 percent of all action in Vegas is on San Francisco.  Before I knew that, I loved Green Bay here, I loved the home-underdog, I loved the quarterback matchup, and I loved the Lambeau temperature.  Now, would I really want to bet against Vegas that much in a playoff game where the amount of money is 4 or 5 times greater than a normal game?  I still think Rodgers is the best player on the planet, right now.  Yes I know Peyton just had the greatest season ever, but he also plays under different circumstances.  Rodgers mobility combined with his swagger leads me to believe in him more than the punk that is Collin Kaepernick. 

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Packers +13, Chargers +17, Chiefs/Colts OVER 35

Playoff Predictions:

Wild Card:

Packers over 49ers, Eagles over Saints; Colts over Chiefs, Bengals over Chargers

Divisional:

Packers over Seahawks, Panthers over Eagles; Broncos over Colts, Bengals over Patriots

Championship Games:

Packers over Panthers, Bengals over Broncos

Super Bowl:

Packers over Bengals

As much as I do not like Cincinnati to cover tomorrow, I will stay true and firm to my preseason picks.  Should the Bengals have Geno Atkins and Leon Hall I would feel a lot better about it, and should they lose tomorrow I would say they would be replaced by New England.

Last Week: 6-10

Overall: 135-114-7