MLB Outlook

N.L. East

Phillies 92-70

Nationals: 87-75

Marlins: 86-76

Braves: 84-78

Mets: 71-91

This, along with the A.L. East, is probably the best overall division races.  I could easily see any one of the top four winning the division and fully expect both wild cards to come from it.  With that said, the division is the Phillies’ to lose.  I know that they are without Ryan Howard until after the All-Star Break and the rest of their lineup is not exactly full of power, but when your first four rotation pitchers are Halladay, Lee, Hamels and breakout star Vance Worley, you are going to win a good amount of games. 

I think the Nationals will sneak past the Marlins as long as Strasburg stays healthy.  Bryce Harper is already terrorizing Triple-A and I expect him to be called up well before the break.  I think the Marlins will be able to snatch the last playoff spot which would create a great one game playoff if Josh Johnson and Strasburg face off.  The Braves have too many guys looking at regressions from statistical peaks last year and the Mets just suck.

N.L. Central

Reds: 91-71

Pirates: 84-78

Brewers: 83-79

Cardinals: 81-81

Cubs: 74-88

Astros: 50-112

In possibly the weakest division in baseball, I think the Reds will be able to pull it out.  The combo of Jay Bruce and the newly rich Joey Votto give the Reds arguably the best two hitters in the division.  Combine that with Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto anchoring their rotation and Arnoldis Chapman closing things out ala Neftali Feliz for the past two Rangers’ teams, I think they will pull away from the defending champions.  Speaking of the Cardinals, they will welcome Adam Wainwright back but the Chris Carpenter injury is troubling.  Without Pujols in the lineup, the lack of depth will truly be seen and the World Series run from last year will be noticed for what it really was: a fluke of streaky, timely hitting from replacement-level players (yes, I’m still bitter).

The Pirates are my surprise team of the N.L. as they will fight for that last wild card spot to the last weekend.  A.J. Burnett will have an “Eff You” turnaround year and lead the rest of the young rotation and Andrew McCutchen is going to put up MVP-quality numbers.  The Brewers will sorely miss Prince Fielder, and Ryan Braun (and vicariously my fantasy team) will miss him even more.  Without his protection, Braun is likely to come back down to Earth-especially if he is not “allegedly” as hyped up on testosterone.  The Cubs are starting to make some nice moves with the signing of Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster is still a top of the rotation guy, but they are still a year or two away from seeing the impact of Theo Epstein.  I think the Astros will challenge for the worst team in the history of baseball this year: and that’s all there is to say about them.

N.L. West

Diamondbacks: 88-74

Giants: 85-77

Dodgers: 81-81

Rockies: 78-94

Padres: 76-86

Something interesting I noticed about ESPN’s analyst predictions for this baseball season: sixteen of the fifty analysts picked Arizona to go to the World Series.  Now every one of those sixteen picked them to lose it, but that does tell me something.  If a third of baseball’s top analysts are picking them this year then they won’t surprise anyone.  I think this will cause an overall regression with the team, but they have a better team now.  With the addition of Trevor Cahill to Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson, their pitching rivals the Giants’ but the Giants don’t have a position player the quality of Justin Upton.  San Francisco could challenge for a wild card if Madison Bumgarner can avoid a slow start and Buster Posey can get back to pre-ankle-injury form.

The Dodgers still have the two best players in the division (arguably the league) in Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp but that’s about it.  I think those two will be even better this season and will L.A. to a .500 record.  The Rockies do not have a deep enough pitching staff to match the rest of the division and I think Dexter Fowler is due for statistical regression.  The Padres are a young and promising team that if they progress faster than expected could reach up to around .500.

A.L. East

Yankees: 91-71

Rays: 90-72

Blue Jays: 87-75

Red Sox: 86-76

Orioles: 62-100

I like the Yankees to win the toughest division in the Bigs.  Adding the criminally underrated Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda gives them a deeper rotation than any team not named the Angels or Rays, and their lineup is still power-packed with Cano-Granderson-Teixeira-Rodriguez-Swisher.  Mariano Rivera is a robot and will pick up another 40 saves.  I think the Rays will stay with the Yankees because of their phenomenal pitching staff.  Between David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, James Shields and Matt Moore the Rays have four of the top 10 or so pitchers in the league.  Evan Longoria should have a good bounce back season as well as B.J. Upton.  Should Desmond Jennings get back to the numbers he was putting up when he first was called up then this might be the most dangerous team in the majors, and if Michael Pineda’s injury is serious then I fully expect Tampa to take the division.

The Blue Jays will finally break the hold of the top-3 in this division.  Kyle Drabek and Brandon Morrow are both potential breakout stars to combine with Ricky Romero to give depth the Toronto rotation for the first time.  Jose Bautista will keep doing Jose Bautista-things with 40+ homers, 120+ RBI and an average around .300.  Brett Lawrie will steal the rookie of the year title away from Matt Moore/Yu Darvish.  The rest of the lineup is deep with Kelly Johnson at 2^nd, Colby Rasmus and Rajai Davis in the outfield and the powerful J.P. Arencibia behind the plate.  The Red Sox are already having internal issues with their new manager, not to mention injuries to Andrew Bailey and Carl Crawford (along with Dice-K but who really expects anything from him anymore?).  Josh Beckett is nowhere near what he once was so the rotation is basically Jon Lester.  Adrian Gonzalez will have another standout season, but Jacoby Ellsbury is due for some serious regression.  Their catcher is Jarrod Saltalamacchia for goodness sakes.  The Orioles are the unlucky team to have to play each of the other four in this division 18 times each.  And they have Chris Davis.  He strikes out. A lot.

A.L. Central

Tigers: 94-68

Royals: 82-80

Indians: 76-86

Twins: 74-88

White Sox: 73-89

I have a feeling this division well be settled shortly after the All-Star Break.  The Tigers have the best pitcher, best closer, and best two hitters in the division.  The addition of Prince Fielder gives the Tigers the most powerful 3-4 combo in all of the majors and I don’t see Verlander slowing down any time soon.  The rest of the division is weak so Detroit should run away pretty easily.  I think the Royals have a progressive year for the franchise.  They have built a solid core with Billy Butler, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas (all under 26) to go along with the emergence of Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain.  If Jeff Francoeur can continue the hot streak he caught the second half of last season then this is a dangerous lineup.  The pitching staff is decent with Luke Hochevar, and the two Jonathans, Sanchez and Broxton.  If Joakim Soria can remain healthy, he and Greg Holland provide nice back of the bullpen stuff.  If one of the younger starters can emerge with 13 or 14 wins then this team could make a playoff push.

The Indians had breakout years from their core of Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera and Jason Kipnis.  I suspect all three will have regression years this season though.  Shin-Soo Choo and Travis Hafner cannot seem to remain healthy, and after Ubaldo Jimenez the pitching staff is very weak.  I still think the Indians have a better outlook than the Twins.  However, the Twins are the most unpredictable team in the American League.  I could see them winning 90 games and making the playoffs, or losing 100.  It’s all about the health and effectiveness of their stars, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Francisco Liriano.  The rest of their staff has potential with Carl Pavano, Jason Marquis and Nate Blackburn, but if the aforementioned trio are not at their All-Star level (which I don’t think all three will, maybe one) then this is a sub-.500 team.  Some people are high on the White Sox but I am not.  Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and Gordon Beckham should regress back and have better years, but Paul Konerko will go the opposite way.  Their pitching staff is highly over-rated to me with John Danks as the ace with a closer by committee being in place in the pen.  I’m not sold on any of it and don’t see them making a threat in the Central.

A.L. West

Rangers: 95-67

Angels: 94-68

Mariners: 70-92

Athletics: 63-99

As I previously have written, the Rangers have the edge at the plate and the Angels have the edge on the mound and I think it is truly a toss-up as to who will win the division, but I will give the slight edge to Texas.  I’ve said before that I think whoever has to face Felix Hernandez less will win the division and by my count, barring injury, he will most likely pitch once more against the Angels than the Rangers.  There’s not much more to be said about the division that I haven’t already besides that one of the wild cards will almost certainly come from it.  The weakness of the Mariners and Athletics give the Angels/Rangers a drastic advantage of the four teams in the East.  

PLAYOFF TEAMS

N.L. East: Phillies

N.L. Central: Reds

N.L. West: Diamondbacks

N.L. Wild Cards: Nationals and Marlins

A.L. East: Yankees

A.L. Central: Tigers

A.L. West: Rangers

A.L. Wild Cards: Angels and Rays

Playoffs:

NLDS: Phillies over the Nationals and Reds over the Diamondbacks

ALDS: Rangers over the Rays and Yankees over the Tigers

NLCS: Reds over the Phillies

ALCS: Rangers over the Yankees

World Series: Rangers over the Reds in 6

I know it looks like a homer pick, but I feel like the only team that can really beat the Rangers in a 7-game series (without the benefit of fluky, timely hitting which is unpredictable) is the Angels, and if they have to play the Rays in a one-game series I think I’d take Joe Madden to win it for Tampa Bay.  Either way, I like the Reds and see them putting up a fight, but in the end, the third time will be the charm.

AWARDS

N.L. MVP: Matt Kemp, Dodgers; Runner-up: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

I think Kemp will continue what he started last year when he should have won it, and even if it is a close race, writers will remember his season last year too.  McCutchen is poised to show that he truly is a five-tool center fielder and I think he makes the jump into super stardom.

A.L. MVP: Robinson Cano, Yankees; Runner-up: Ian Kinsler, Rangers

Cano is poised for another great year and if he stays healthy then I think he will have the best numbers of any American League hitter.  Kinsler has been driving the ball more in the spring and if he can get his batting average up to go with his 30/30 potential and plus defense, he is a viable MVP candidate.

N.L. Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers; Runner-Up: A.J. Burnett, Pirates

I typed Kershaw’s name without any thought to another pitcher.  He is that good.  Then with Burnett, I know the Phillies’ foursome have better odds of being in the top two, but that’s too easy.  I truly think Burnett will bounce back with a great year in a weak division, bloating his numbers.

A.L. Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Tigers; Runner-up: Colby Lewis, Rangers

I don’t see anyway matching last year’s MVP from the mound and suspect he will easily win it again.  The runner-up was harder to choose when you think about the top 3 Angels’ pitchers, the loaded East’s top hurlers and Felix Hernandez, but I refuse to pick an Angel so I went with Colby Lewis.  His contract is up at the end of this season and he will be looking for big money as possibly the second best starter available.  Take away the distraction that a number one starter usually gets because of Yu and Neftali, coupled with the dominant offense and Colby will have a superb year.

N.L. Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper, Nationals

I think Harper is a shoe-in for the award should he be called up before the break.  If not then the Diamondbacks’ Trevor Bauer will most likely get it.

A.L. Rookie of the Year: Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays

This is the toughest of the awards as both Yu Darvish and Matt Moore are looking like they will have phenomenal seasons.  However, I think post-season awards are easily won by hitters, and Yu and Moore will split each other’s votes.