With only four more sleeps until the first baseball game that really matters, I thought I needed to breakdown the outlook for the season. Last year my predictions were slightly off with the resurgence of the A’s and Orioles, but my sleeper pick was right on (the Pirates) until an injury-riddled collapse. I also thought no team would beat the Rangers in a multi-game playoff series and that was correct…
Anyway, I thought I would start off with the lesser of two leagues, the NL. Somehow, the National League champion has defeated a much deeper and well-rounded AL squad in three straight World Series’, but with that said it would be a tough argument that the overall quality of the league is lacking (even with the hapless Astros now in the AL).
All records are my own predictions for the upcoming season, and all triple slash numbers are consensus projections:
N.L. West
Los Angeles Dodgers, 90-72
San Francisco Giants, 86-76
Arizona Diamondbacks, 84-78
Colorado Rockies, 70-92
San Diego Padres, 65-97
I hate to say it, but I am a believer in the Dodgers. Adrian Gonzalez still hit .300 with 100 RBI last season in a “down-year”. Hanley Ramirez was looking quite strong before the injury and he will be back in late April. I also feel like Matt Kemp will be able to stay on the field and provide the MVP quality numbers of two seasons ago. It seems that Josh Beckett has been reaching his fastball velocity of a few years ago, and they still have the best top-two pitching combo in the league with Kershaw and Greinke. Capuano and Billingsley are solid starters and Hyun-Jin Ryu is a name to remember. The South Korean dominated the U.S. in the 2009 WBC and he could be the next Asian pitching sensation. When Crawford, Ramirez and Greinke are healthy, with Kemp on the field as well, this is easily the deepest team in the NL.
The defending World Champion Giants are a trendy pick to win the division, but I think they are due for regression and let-down. After San Francisco’s 2010 triumph, the Giants followed with a non-playoff season of 86 wins. I think they will be somewhere around there because of their “meh” lineup. Not a single player is projected to hit over .300 or slug higher than .500. Buster Posey is the most prime candidate for health concerns as well as plate regression. San Francisco would need a breakout season from Belt, coupled with an injury-free Posey and their starting pitching to also remain healthy to contend. Their top-two punch of Cain and Bumgarner is strong, but there are plenty of questions surrounding Lincecum-Vogelsong-Zito. I also have my doubts that Sergio Romo can continue to be a front-line closer just as Brian Wilson fell off after his playoff dominance.
Arizona finished almost seven wins below their expected total last season, so they are due for a regression back towards the top. However, the Diamondbacks traded their best player, 25 year-old Justin Upton, and did not even get the shortstop they were looking for but rather a stop-gap at third base in Martin Prado. I’ve never been a Prado fan, and I really feel like they missed out on a valuable asset with Upton. Ian Kennedy and Wade Miley look to continue being quality starters, but questions surround the health of both Brandon McCarthy and Trevor Cahill. The fifth spot could be a revolving door between Randall Delgado, Tyler Skaggs and Patrick Corbin until Daniel Hudson comes back from injury.
The Rockies boast the second best lineup in the division, Coors-Field-aided or not. Dexter Fowler is a quality leadoff man, youngster Josh Rutledge is poised for a breakout season, and CarGo/Tulo offer feature speed/power combos in the middle of the lineup. However, Colorado’s rotation leaves something to be desired. Jhoulys Chacin would struggle to make the rotation of the top three teams and he might be the Rockies’ front-liner. The Rockies’ experiment with a four-man rotation was a terrible idea, and their bullpen is no strong-suit with Rafael Betancourt blowing almost 20% of his save chances last season. Pitching will be this team’s downfall yet another season.
The Padres might put themselves in a big hole to start the season without Chase Headley in the lineup. A quick browse shows the highest projected hitter at .263 and only one other above .254 (league average). Their starting pitching looks awful with Edinson Volquez at the top of the rotation and Jason Marquis as the second starter. The Padres need Corey Luebke to return from injury quickly. The schedule is not very friendly in the start of the season with two series’ a piece with the Dodgers/Giants and a series against the Brewers all in the first month.
N.L. Central
Milwaukee Brewers, 92-70
Cincinnati Reds, 88-74
St. Louis Cardinals, 82-80
Pittsburgh Pirates, 80-82
Chicago Cubs, 63-99
Two days ago, I had the Brewers in third place, and then the Lohse signing automatically moved them to second. After further analysis of their lineup, I am not just going to give them the division, I think they will battle the nationals for the top seed. Everyone knows about Ryan Braun, but Milwaukee has some of the most under-rated players in the league. Norichika Aoki (.288/.347/.398) hits lead off and offers a good blend of speed and power. After Braun in the lineup are Aramis Ramirez (.282/.345/.499), Jonathan Lucroy (poised for a breakout year into the top tier of catchers) and Carlos Gomez (who’s 2012 season pro-rates out to 24 HR and 46 SB). The lineup is the strongest in the division and now with Lohse headlining the rotation followed by Gallardo and Fiers the rotation has enough power to match.
Honestly, I am probably too low on the Reds due to them not coming through for me last season. They added Shin-Soo Choo at the top of their lineup who can get on (.373 OBP) for Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto to knock in. Jay Bruce is a fantasy sleeper than is about a good of a 5-hole hitter that the division can boast. The rotation has been ironed out with Aroldis Chapman moving back to the pen, leaving Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos as the co-aces. Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake and Homer Bailey round out the starting five that hopes to just get the game to the 7th. There waits the best 7-8-9 bullpen trio outside of Washington with Sean Marshall, Jonathon Broxton and Chapman.
St. Louis’ strength for the umpteenth consecutive year lies with their starting pitching. After Lance Lynn’s breakout season and the emergence of Shelby Miller as the fifth starter, the Cardinals throw a quality-rich starting five to the hill. The back-end just took a hit with Jason Motte’s injury and no one proven behind him. The lineup is good, but not great with the same trio of Beltran/Holliday/Craig in the middle. Look for Oscar Tevarez to be called up sooner rather than later to provide St. Louis will a little more pop.
As weak as this division looked last season, it looks like the strongest in the league this year. Pittsburgh will be a better team this year than it was last year. Where does that get them? Most likely fourth place in the division. With the addition of Russell Martin, the Pirates have a solid lineup with emerging left fielder Starling Marte at the top followed by Neil Walker, McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Garret Jones and then Martin. If Walker can stay healthy (he was hurt for the majority of last season’s collapse) the Pirates might have a shot but will need McCutchen to have another MVP-caliber season. Pittsburgh’s starting pitching will also need to step up on the back end. Jeff Karstens and Jonathan Sanchez were both promising at one point, but have fallen on harder times. Should those two round back into form and A.J. Burnett , Wandy Rodriguez and James McDonald have similar seasons as last year, the Pirates could contend again.
The sole reason to watch the Cubs this season? That would be their young infielders Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo. Castro and Rizzo, both just 23, provide a foundation for the future of the Cubs. However, there is not much after. Alfonso Soriano is still swinging for the fences, but the rest of the lineup would struggle to make a fantasy roster in an NL-only league. The Cubs’ rotation has a couple of strikeout artists in Jeff Samardzija and Edwin Jackson, but take it from my experience as a Rangers’ fan that having Scott Feldman as your number 3 is not a good thing. Look for Kyuji Fujikawa to take over the closing job from Carlos Marmol by the All-Star break.
N.L. East
Washington Nationals, 92-70
Atlanta Braves, 86-76
Philadelphia Phillies, 80-82
New York Mets, 65-97
Miami Marlins, 63-99
The Nationals take the cake as the most complete team in baseball right now. The lineup will be anchored by 20-year old, I-hit-better-than-Mike-Trout-did-at-age-19 Bryce Harper being protected by Jayson Werth (not worth the big contract but still a good player) and Ryan Zimmerman (if he can stay healthy). Adam LaRoche, Ian Desmond and Kurt Suzuki provide some power at the bottom of the lineup and Denard Span speed at the top. As good as the Nationals’ lineup looks, the pitching staff blows it away. Stephen Strasburg is back with no innings limit, Gio Gonzalez is coming off of his best season yet, Jordan Zimmerman and Dan Haren could arguably be the best numbers 3 and 4 in the Bigs, and Ross Detwiler might just be scratching the surface of his ceiling. With that said, the bullpen trio of Tyler Clippard/Drew Storen/Rafael Soriano is unmatched in all of baseball. It will take a serious string of injuries for this team to not make the playoffs.
What is the National League record for team home runs? If Brian McCann can come back soon, the Braves could have hitters 2-8 all hit 20 bombs or more, with Heyward, Justin Upton, Freddie Freeman and B.J. Upton all threats to surpass 30 (Heyward/Freeman maybe even 40). This team is going to hit the long ball and Andrelton Simmons figures to be the Elvis Andrus-starter kit that will get it all going with assertive base-running. The defense of the team might not be up to par, but the advantage this lineup has at the plate is worth it. The Braves’ starting pitching is a series of questions: Can Tim Hudson keep it going? Will Kris Medlen continue his dominance from the end of last season? Will Julio Tehrean and Mike Minor live up to the potential and high strikeout rates? Luckily Atlanta has a good trio themselves backing up the starters with Ryan Madsen, Jonny Venters and the best closer in baseball, Craig Kimbrel. If Atlanta was in any division without Washington, they would be cracking 90 wins.
The Phillies were old and with the acquisition of Michael Young, they just got older. Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley are shells of their former selves and I’m not even sure that Ryan Howard is the same person. He will still hit home runs but his average will dip toward the .225 range. Philly added Ben Revere for some speed but outside of Howard, no one in their lineup has high RBI/power rates. If the Phillies hope to contend, they will need their aging rotation pieces to discover the fountain of youth. Hamels will continue being an ace, but the squad will need better years from Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee because the rest of the rotation looks quite below average. The addition of Mike Adams should help the bullpen and hopefully Jonathan Papelbon will get ample opportunity.
The Mets will be starting a good deal of guys that you have never heard of. Outside of David Wright and Ike Davis in the middle, New York fans get to look forward to Jordany Valdespin, John Buck and Ruben Tejada! Marlon Byrd seems to have hit the age cliff, and I am not a Lucas Duda believer. New York does have a couple of starters that I like in Matt Harvey and Jon Niese. Shaun Marcum has been diminishing in the past two years and Dillon Gee just does nothing for me. With Frank Francisco injured, the lack of depth in the bullpen could be exposed early on.
As young and no-name as the Mets’ lineup projects, the Miami lineup could very well be even less conspicuous. They also might struggle to match the Triple-A lineup with some deep farms. Giancarlo Stanton will have the likes of Juan Pierre (.333 OBP) and Placido Polanco (.317 OBP) in front of him to drive in. The rest of the lineup will be kids that the Marlins recently acquired in trades for their superstars. Their pitching is so terrible that I do not even want to talk about it. With the Astros gone, the Marlins will be the punching bag of the National League.
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