NFL Championship Weekend Picks

As I said in the opening last week, the Divisional Playoff Round is by far the toughest to handicap.  Even when you have the team right, and they dominating for over 50 minutes, they have to come back and win but no cover.  Or the team that you have as the hottest coming into the game decides to give the game away at both ends of the half.  Then there is always the second year quarterback in his first playoff game that decides he wants to run like Randall Cunningham in Tecmo Super Bowl (and for those are who are acting like they knew Kaepernick was going to do that, please go bury your head in sand).

The trend from last week was solid at 2-1, I just picked the wrong 1.  I had no idea that the Green Bay defense decided to, you know, not prepare for the running aspect of the dual-threat quarterback they were facing.  The most outstanding trend of the championship round: there is usually at least one blowout.  There is not much other precedent, especially with a number 1 seed, at home, getting over a field goal.

FALCONS +4 over 49ers

So the Falcons dominate the Seahawks for the majority of the game, and then came through to pull it out in the end, but they are four point underdogs, at home, to a team that just got blown out of the building by that same Seahawks team just three weeks ago?  Lest I remind you that the last time Colin Kaepernick was on the road, he only completed 52% of his passes, with an interception, a quarterback rating of 72, and only 31 yards rushing?  The value here is too much to pass up, even if you think that San Francisco is just that much better than Atlanta.  The Falcons’ money line at +175 looks appetizing.

PATRIOTS -8 over Ravens

Tom Brady/Bill Belichick do not lose games like this.  Couple that with the blowout potential in the championship round, and the fact that the old Ravens defense had to play almost an extra half last week, and this one could get out of hand.  I expect the Patriots to put Welker in a position to have Ray Lewis cover him, in which Welker will dominate.  The eight is somewhat scary, and it might be worth buying to 7 in case of a backdoor cheap touchdown, but the Pats are definitely the play here.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Falcons +14, Falcons/49ers Over 37, Patriots +2

Props:

+450 Tony Gonzales to score first for Atlanta/+800 for the game

That seems too high

+140 Atlanta to score Last in the game

Either they will be playing catch up, or they will need the score to win

+125 Will there be a score in the first five minutes of the NE/BAL Game: Yes

The big play potential of Baltimore plus the hurry-up of the Patriots with odds in my favor? Thank you.

EVEN -.5 More points score in the second half SF/ATL

I’m sure the Falcons have some sort of defense to stop Kaepernick, so they 49ers will need a half to figure it out.

Over 46.5 Longest touchdown in SF/ATL game

Kaepernick, Moss, Crabtree, Davis, White, Rodgers and Julio Jones.

-150 San Francisco penalized first

The Falcons are the least penalized team in the league.

Under 14 Largest lead in the SF/ATL game

I feel like it will be close.

Under 66.5 Rushing yards for Colin Kaepernick

Before last week, in his seven games as a starter he only passed this total once.

Over 80.5 Receiving yards for Michael Crabtree

He has topped this total in five of his last six games, and the other game was close.

-210 Matt Ryan will throw a touchdown before an interception

He does not throw many interceptions, and I think Matty Ice is making the leap.

+800 49ers lead at the half, Falcons win the game

Those odds are awfully high and Matty Ice is full of comeback

Over 48.5 Longest touchdown in the NE/BAL game

Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Smith, Boldin, Flacco, Rice.  A lot of big play potential.

+160 New England scores in all four quarters

Seems like a likely outcome.

Last Week: 1-3

Playoffs: 5-3

Overall: 149-107-6