NFL Wild Card Round Picks

A tough .500 week to end the regular season, but as I said last week, the majority of the games last week were un-bettable.  Now playoff betting is a whole different animal than regular season games.  Proven trends in the playoffs have more weight than the regular season, such as home-field advantage being stronger and young quarterbacks struggling.  Those two trends in particular will come in to play this weekend with three of the toughest playoff home fields and five quarterbacks in their first or second year. 

Only four rookie quarterbacks have taken their teams to the playoffs and won a game in the past 25 years, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez and Shaun King.  All four had the benefit of a dominant defense and veteran leadership all around them.  Only one of the three rookies this year has something close to that, Russell Wilson. 

Second year quarterbacks do not fare much better in the playoffs, with slightly more wins, but only two (Roethlisberger and Brady) have won a Super Bowl in the past 25 years.  Both of them, once again, had extremely good defenses and even better schemes.  This puts the chances of Andy Dalton and Christian Ponder winning playoff games down. 

            With that last stat, I lead into my playoff betting theory, specifically for pools where you pick the entire playoffs (which I will predict at the end of this piece).  My theory is similar to that of my March Madness Pool in that you want to minimize your risk, and use trends to identify a team or two that you think has the best chances to win.  You cannot just go with who has looked better or who has the better players, because we all know that neither of those really ever play out.  So when you are picking each playoff game, look at the trends for the teams in that game alone, and ask yourself which team has a better chance of winning the Super Bowl from that point forward.

            For example, even if you think the Colts are going to win this weekend but have no shot of winning the Super Bowl behind a rookie quarterback and tattered defense, it might be better to pick the Ravens.  Baltimore has proven veterans all over the field, a strong coaching staff, an experienced quarterback, and the intangible “Win It For Ray” movement that give them a decent Super Bowl chance.  So even if you think the Colts might win, the cost of not picking the Ravens could ruin your bracket in the first round.  With that said, let’s get to the Wild Card picks.

TEXANS -4.5 over Bengals

Both major trends are in play with a strong Houston home-field advantage (12-4 over the past two years at home) and the Bengals starting Dalton.  The Bengals have a decent defense, but at the same time Terrance Newman and Pacman Jones are getting significant playing time.  In no way do those two signify the dominant defenses that young quarterbacks have ridden in the past.  While Houston may be in a slump, the odds of Cincinnati winning at Denver or New England are pretty long.  The Texans, on the other hand, have already won once at Denver and could ride a win here to a long playoff run.

PACKERS -8 over Vikings

Almost the same trend-situation as the previous game with one of the most dominant home fields in the history of football (as well as 22-2 over the past three seasons) and a quite incompetent second year quarterback.  While Adrian Peterson is in a zone like no running back ever outside of a Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson, if Minnesota gets behind he is effectively neutralized.  I mean, would you want to have to count on Christian Ponder throwing for a significant amount of yards, on the road, at Lambeau, in a playoff game?  Aaron Rodgers is playing possibly his best football ever right now which should scare the rest of the league.

RAVENS -6.5 over Colts

If this were a regular season game, I would be all over Indy getting nearly a touchdown.  Since it is the playoffs though, I would probably stay away from betting the line on this game, but stick to the Ravens money-line.  For some of the reasons stated above, as well as the ridiculous amount of luck that the Colts have received this season, (recovered almost 85% of fumbles, easiest schedule in the league, undefeated in games decided by less than a touchdown) it will run out at some point.  I do not like giving almost a touchdown with Joe Flacco either, but Baltimore is a serious contender with Ray Lewis’ motivational techniques as well as a strong home field (21-3 over the last three seasons).

Seahawks -3 over REDSKINS

This line has moved drastically over the week, with all of the money on Seattle.  Washington has the worst home field of any of the playoff teams (9-15 over the last three seasons) and both teams have rookie quarterbacks.  The main difference is the staunch Seattle defense compared to the Redskins’ 28^th ranked unit.  Against an NFL-level front seven, the Redskins will not have as much success running the ball causing RG3 to have to win games with his arm.  I do not see that happening in the playoffs with the intensity ratcheted up.  This one could get ugly.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Seahawks +7, Colts +16.5, Packers +2

Playoff Predictions:

Divisional Round:

AFC: Broncos over Ravens, Patriots over Ravens

NFC: Packers over 49ers, Falcons over Seahawks

Conference Championships:

AFC: Broncos over Patriots

NFC: Packers over Falcons

Super Bowl:

31-28: Packers over Broncos

I think I picked the wrong NFC North team pre-season, at least I got six division winners correct of the eight.

Last Week: 8-8

Overall: 144-104-6