NFL Divisional Round Picks

A strong start to the playoffs, with a 4-0 week, but the divisional round is usually the hardest to handicap.  The problem with the divisional round, is that there were common trends for years about the home team, or rematches, but all have been de-bunked in the past four to five years.  Home teams, better seeds, and teams that are hotter do not show any trends.  However, I did found one trend that is especially useful this week.  Since the current postseason format was adopted, there have been 31 teams to lose in week 17, but then win a home wild card playoff game.  Those 31 teams proceeded to go 3-28 straight up and 6-24-1 against the number.  The Packers, Ravens, and Texans all fit that bill and two of the three are prohibitive underdogs to teams that have already put the beat down on them earlier this season.

BRONCOS -8.5 over Ravens

Now this line opened at 8.5, was pushed all the way to 10, but has settled back at 8.5.  If it was at ten still, I would have a much tougher decision, but I love Denver here.  Some people have pointed out the cold and how Peyton Manning is not that good in the cold previously.  Well he is still Peyton Manning and Joe Flacco is still Joe Flacco.  I think the Ravens expended their emotional energy last week winning that last game for Ray.  Even if they made it last, I do not seem them lasting another week, so I will stick with Denver.

Packers +3 over 49ERS

Now I know I just talked up this huge trend and everything… but watching the replay of the 2005 Draft scene and the look on Aaron Rodgers’ face when they picked Alex Smith first… Do you realize that over the past two seasons, Aaron Rodgers has thrown 84 touchdowns and only 14 interceptions? Brady’s best over two years: 75/16, Manning’s best: 78/20; Marino’s best: 78/38; Favre’s: 77/26.  That’s pretty dominant, and now he gets to go back to his hometown, to play the team that passed over him?  Lock.

FALCONS -3 over Seahawks

Atlanta is the first ever 13-3 #1 Seed that everyone is overlooking.  The Seahawks are not a good road team, and are being over-rated for beating one of the worst playoff teams in recent memory with a gimpy quarterback.  I saw a stat from Adam Schefter comparing another quarterback to Matt Ryan’s first five seasons:

Matt Ryan: completed 62.7 percent of his passes for 18,957 yards, with a 127-60 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio and a won-loss record of 56-22

Quarterback B: completed 62 percent of his passes for 20,618 yards, with a 138-100 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio and a 42-38 record

In Quarterback B’s fifth season, he won his first playoff game and went to the conference championship game.  Quarterback B? Peyton Manning.  I am in no way saying Ryan is as good as Manning, but he is vastly under-rated and I think he might make the leap this Sunday, considering he is 35-5 in the Georgia Dome.

PATRIOTS -9.5 over Texans

Before seeing that trend stat from the opening, I was tempted by the Texans seeing that Tom Brady/Belichick are 1-6 over their last seven playoff games against the spread, and 2-7-1 against the number with an extra week of rest.  So in reality, it is a battle of two pretty strong trends.  What it came down to for me is Matt Schaub sucks.  Schaub has the second best running back, a top-4 wide receiver, the best offensive line, and arguably the best defense over the past 4 seasons and he has one playoff win.  Matt Schaub just has to not lose games for Houston, unlike Tony Romo who HAS to win the game for Dallas.  Schaub will find a way to lose this one.

10-Point Teaser of the Week: Patriots -.5, Broncos +1.5, Packers +7

Last Week: 4-0

Playoffs: 4-0

Overall: 148-104-6