Mid-Majors To Watch

          With the smaller conference tournaments beginning this week and the majors starting next week, it’s time to turn full attention to college basketball.  Every year millions of people across the country fill out their brackets for office or family/friend pools as they try to pick the winners.  Then every year millions of people are cursing themselves for how many red lines are seen on said brackets after the first weekend of the tournament. 

            The majority of people don’t watch any college basketball at all until the actual tournament starts, and then rely on some sort of system to pick their winners: go straight chalk; pick a ton of upsets; pick the big conference teams; pick the best conference’s teams; ride one team that no one expects.  I’ve tried them all, and I can tell you that these theories aren’t the way to go.  Yeah if you get lucky and pick Butler to run through the tournament then that one works or if you use the chalk method then it worked in 2008, but the majority of the time you’re going to fail.  Either you picked the wrong system or the wrong conference/team, but it still relies too much on luck.

            I’ve taken a new approach that I use in Fantasy Football: minimize the risk.  By saying this I’m not saying pick favorites to win every game, but be smart about picking upsets.  For example, don’t pick a number 8 or 9 seed to make it to the Final Four.  It’s only happened three times (once vacated by UCLA in 1980, Villanova in ’85 and Butler last year) because they have to play a 1 seed the second game of the tournament.  By picking this 8/9 seed to go to the Final Four you are exiting a 1 seed in the second round, something very risky (yes I know it just happened last year, but let’s remember also the questionable calls that led to that upset and the fact that Butler was way better than an 8 and Pitt should not have been a 1). 

            The biggest way that I will minimize risk is to actually use my eyeballs and logic.  Usually people just go by who beat whom and what people rank or say about teams.  Well people are stupid, so I’m going to stop listening to them.  I’m going to try and watch the majority of the 68 teams play at least once to get a feel for not just how good they are but they style of play because college basketball is all about matchups.  That’s how Missouri can go 0-2 against bubble-team Kansas State, but 25-2 against everyone else.  So if you have an idea of how both teams play, you can pick your upsets with less risk.  So let’s get to some teams that you might want to take some time to watch before they bust your bracket to pieces.

Murray State: The Racers have been the mid-major talk of the town this season as they started 23-0 before getting upset by Tennessee State.  I have yet to actually watch Murray State yet, but I’m not sold on the resume.  They did not play a single team from a BCS Conference and their biggest win was against a Memphis team that is solid but unspectacular.  I’m going to try and catch them in their conference championship game because I think their success in the Big Dance will come down to if they match up favorably with a bigger school. 

Long Beach State: This is the most intriguing mid-major to me this year.  They have only lost at home once (to a Kansas State team previously mentioned) and hung with Kansas, North Carolina and San Diego State on the road, losing by an average of 6 points.  With wins on the road against Pittsburgh, Xavier and Auburn they have played the bigger schools.  This team is very similar to Missouri as their tallest regular is only 6’ 8’’ but they are loaded with seniors and could be problems for the slow it down teams of the Big Ten.
Creighton: This is a team who I think will either make a good run into the sweet 16 or Elite 8, or get ousted in the first round.  The reason is Doug McDermott.  McDermott has been dominant this season with 23.2 points and 8.3 rebounds a game and has shown he can carry his team.  The supporting case is lacking and their lack of depth has shown in a few questionable losses, but this team will go as far as McDermott will take them.  They are a must watch in the conference tournament because if McDermott is starting to get hot then you need to account for that in your bracket, ala Kemba Walker last season.

Harvard: The Crimson have a few questionable losses on their resume but their win against Florida State is up there with anything by any other mid-major this year.  The non-stop ball movement and team game that Harvard plays needs to be working very efficiently to be successful so catching one of their last couple of games is a must to gauge their level of play heading into the tournament.

Wichita State: This team has something that most mid-majors lack, and that’s an athletic 7-footer who can bang inside as well as nail 3’s.  I don’t know anything about the supporting cast so I’m going to need to watch them to see how talented the rest of the team is, but I feel like they could possibly make a run with the right draw.  If they can avoid other NBA-talent laden teams then they could have the advantage.

Davidson: Davidson is a team that proved it can beat anyone when they won AT Allen Field House over Kansas by 6.  Combine that with close loses to Vanderbilt and Duke as well as defeating Richmond and this team has proven itself worthy of consideration.  I need to watch them to get a grip on their style of play to see which teams they could pull an upset on.

Now I know that I mentioned how teams beat other teams, but only use that as a reference to take notice of that team.  Do not just use that they won a single game as a reference for an upset.  I mean, Binghamton is the worst team in the nation, losing their first 26 games, but they beat Vermont… who beat Old Dominion, who beat South Florida, who beat Pittsburgh, who beat Tennessee, who beat Florida, who beat Florida State, who beat Duke, who beat Michigan State, who beat Indiana, who beat number one in the nation and odds on favorite to win the title, Kentucky.  So use the resume of a team to only acknowledge that they should be noticed, but use your eyes and logic to determine how you think it will all play out.