Last week I was exactly .500, and there was a slight advantage by going with the touchdown-dogs. They went 4-3-1, and Pittsburgh/Cleveland were both driving to cover at the end of the game. Home underdogs were also 3-1, with just the Giants getting their doors blown off. Eli sure has looked awful taking care of the football, hasn’t he? I took Philly last night and lost, not only that but lost some Fantasy cred as I sat the Chiefs D in two different leagues. Who would have thought that they could prepare on a short week for Chip Kelly’s offense so well?
TITANS -3 over Chargers
Phillip Rivers will turn back into the new Phillip Rivers sooner than staying the old Phillip Rivers for long. If that doesn’t make sense, I am simply saying this feels like a 4-interception Rivers masterpiece (or at least I hope so, since I replaced the Chiefs D with the Titans’).
VIKINGS -4 over Browns
Cleveland has officially turned its focus toward Ballin’-Like-Theon for Jadaveon/Tanking for Teddy. I do like the move though; Richardson has been an average back, and now the Browns can take Clowney first overall and still get one of the highly touted quarterbacks coming out in the mid first or early second.
Buccaneers +7.5 over PATRIOTS
I feel like I am being sucked in by the Patriots by showing next to nothing the first two weeks before exploding for 40+ against a dysfunctional Tampa team. However, I think that Revis and company will take the chip on their shoulder from the horrendous start and shut down the weak Patriots’ receiving core. I’m calling an outright upset: Tampa 31-New England 27.
RAVENS +3 over Texans
Who has looked less like the 2012 version of themselves, the Ravens or Texans? I think that Baltimore is starting to figure it out, and the first week was just the greatest football player of all time doing things that the greatest football player of all time does.
Rams +4.5 over COWBOYS
The Rams are a sneaky-good team that is actually somewhat similar to the Chiefs: a really good pass rush with a couple of solid corners, a quarterback who is not making mistakes, and a dynamic offensive player behind a stout offensive line. I think the first two games of Dallas have shown us the blue print to stopping them: if they are not getting turnovers and converting, then they will lose. Tony Romo has been hated on so much that he is now too conservative. This will never be a running team with this O-line, so if Romo is not going to take chances, the defense has to come up big.
Cardinals +8 over SAINTS
The Cardinals are getting no respect. Arizona took the most impressive team from week 1 (Lions) and took them to the woodshed. They out muscled and out played Detroit. If Larry Fitzgerald is good to go, this could turn in to a wild shootout, and a backdoor cover is a strong play.
REDSKINS -2 over Lions
I drafted Reggie Bush in every single fantasy draft knowing that there are injury risks. The thing is, in fantasy I can take a few weeks missed by Reggie, because of the cheap price I got a top-5 PPR back for (4th-7th round). In real life, the Lions need him at full speed to reach their full potential. Bell is good, but not as much of a big play threat. RG3 has a bounce back game against a weak secondary.
BENGALS +3 over Packers
My pre-season Super Bowl matchup, and I am giving the edge to the Bengals at home. What happened the last couple of times the Packers played a really big and physical defense and a big-play wide receiver? Oh, the 49ers cruised both times. Cincinnati gets the win here, but the Packers begin to figure out how to beat this type of team for later…
Giants +1 over PANTHERS
The Giants can’t start 0-3 right? When is the last time that happened? 1996- Dan Reeves was their head coach, Dave M. Brown was their quarterback and the Cowboys were coming off their last Super Bowl victory. I doubt that the streak ends this year.
Falcons +3 over DOLPHINS
I think Miami is getting a bit over-rated for their 2-0 start. Cleveland and Indianapolis are not exactly juggernauts, and it is not like the Dolphins were dominant looking. Atlanta on the other hand, is a tipped goal line pass from a 2-0 start against two teams much better than the two Miami beat. I will take the value of a line that is about 6 points the wrong way.
Colts +10.5 over 49ERS
I know, I just said that the Colts are not that good…. And I know, San Francisco is in full-on validation-revenge mode after getting their asses kicked… But I cannot take anyone giving more than a touchdown anymore.
Jaguars +19 over SEAHAWKS
Aw come on…. I want to stick to my new philosophy, but Jacksonville is so terrible. That’s the trick in NFL gambling though: the teams make you think they are much worse than they are. This has the feeling of one those huge spread games where everyone takes the favorite in their eliminator pools and have to either sweat out a closer than expected game (Ravens over Colts with Brian St. Pierre starting a couple of years ago) or losing outright. I am picking it now, but I would much rather take the 21 number that is sure to pop up by Sunday.
Bills +3 over JETS
I have absolutely no feel for which of these rookie quarterbacks will come through in this game. So with that said, I will just take the underdog and the points because it is the safer call.
STEELERS +3 over Bears
Same drill as with the Giants: when was the last time that Pittsburgh started 0-3? 1986. 86. John Stallworth was still on the team and Chuck Noll was still the coach. I hate the Steelers too much for them to break that streak.
Raiders +15.5 over BRONCOS
I just have nothing else to say besides I already hate my new philosophy…
10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Saints/Cardinals OVER 36, Browns/Vikings UNDER 53, 49ers -0.5
Others I like:
Patriots +3, Broncos -5.5, Steelers +12, Falcons +13, Bengals +13, Redskins/Lions OVER 37
This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 7-7-2
Overall: 15-15-3
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