The (Theoretical) Future of the Mavericks

            As all Mavs’ fans search for answers following the ass-kicking handed to Dallas that has now put the Mavericks on the brink of elimination for the first time in 2 years, the most common theme is to blame Cuban for not re-signing Tyson Chandler.  I think this is the Cowboy-fan-turned-Mavericks-fan knee-jerk reaction that we are used to hearing in football season: “If we would have kept Chandler we could have won back-to-back.”  That’s just a ridiculous thought on so many accounts, not to mention the jeopardy the Mavericks’ future would be in.

            Before I even get into the possibilities that Cuban had in front of him, let’s not kid ourselves: whether Tyson Chandler was there or not this series, I don’t think it mattered as to the outcome.  This series is coming down to Russell Westbrook.  Westbrook averaged 19 shots a game and shot 45% from the field, 31% from 3’s during the regular season.  During the first three games of this series, he is shooting 21 times a game at 49% and 44% from 3’s.  So he is shooting at a much higher clip from the floor and shooting more.  The most telling thing is that he’s hitting jump shots. Tyson Chandler can’t block an 18-foot jump shot.  If Westbrook continues hitting those then OKC is a very dangerous team.

            So now let’s look at what Cuban could have done last summer when deciding how to go about setting up the team for the present and future:

Option 1: Re-Sign Tyson Chandler

            Most of the times when a team wins a championship, they do everything they can to keep the integral pieces of that championship.  The Mavs let one of their key pieces walk in free agency (not to mention a few other roles players, but that’s another argument).  Like I said, this is the crutch argument for Dallas fans as to why they are struggling.  You have to look at the bigger picture here.

            Tyson Chandler wanted his money.  He wanted a long term deal.  The Mavs could not do both.  With the new salary cap restrictions not to mention the amount of space the Mavericks had on tap for the summer of 2012, Dallas couldn’t offer Chandler the long-term, big money deal he wanted.  The Knicks did.  Now Dallas tried to give Chandler a max-money, one year deal, but he wanted the years more than anything.  But say that the Mavericks’ gave him the 4 for $60 million.  Even with the amnesty of Haywood, you’re looking at $50 million just from Dirk, Marion, and Chandler when the cap is in the mid $50’s.  Now while those three are a great core, where is the offense coming from besides Dirk?  Marion and Chandler can both score 14 and 10 a game respectively, but they do it outside of the structured offense.  No plays (outside of rare alley-oops) get run for them. 

            The other option that could have come with resigning Chandler would be as a trade chip for the Magic so that Dallas could get Dwight Howard (their over arching goal).  Having Tyson certainly would have helped, but could the Mavs have even come up with a package centered on Tyson?  Chandler-Roddy B- Jet- Mahimi for Howard-Turkgolu? Would the Magic even say yes to this?  Is this what Tyson wanted to do?  I think if this was a serious option, Cuban would have done it.  The problem with it is if you do resign him, but Dwight still wants to come here, he can’t unless the Magic agree to it, giving Orlando all of the power.

Option 2: Let Tyson Walk

            Let’s look at the dream scenario that Cuban and Donnie Jones had in mind: Let Tyson, Barea, Stevenson walk, and save cap space to sign Deron and Dwight in the summer of 2012.  Then you build around a core of Dirk-Dwight-Deron-Marion-Roddy B-Brandon Wright-Delonte West-Vince Carter.  Now that is a top 8 that you can win a championship with. 

            Deron and Dwight have all but tattooed it on their foreheads that they want to play together.  The complication came when Howard agreed to the one year option with the Magic, pushing his free agency back a year.  While this may look bad on the outside for the Mavericks, the salary picture tells a better story.  On the books the Mavs have $41.4 for next year, $33 million after the Haywood amnesty.  So say they sign Deron and take the player options on Vince ($3 million), Wright and Azubuike (less than a million each).  You can give Deron about $17.5 and still leave yourself some roster-filler space.  If no long term contracts are signed, that leaves about $47 million on the books for the summer of 2013, when Howard becomes a free agent.  Should the salary cap hit $60 million, and then you restructure Dirk’s last years (the last year on the books is 13/14) you can slide Dwight in there for the same as Deron. 

            Yes, athletes don’t take less money very often.  However, when they want to play together (Bosh/LeBron/Wade) or if there is a place that they want to play (Melo/Amare) they will.  Not only do Deron and Dwight want to play together, and have Dirk on the wing to take away the double teams, but Deron wants to come back to Texas.  It is a very plausible situation that the Mavs end up with two of the top 10 players in the NBA, both still in their 20’s while Dirk can take a back seat and drill jumpers into his 40’s.  Of course, Dwight could change his mind, and the whole situation is screwed, unless the Mavs still sign Deron and…

Option 3: Sign Roy Hibbert

            Fun fact: Roy Hibbert averaged 3 more points a game last year, same amount of rebounds, and 33% more blocks per game than Tyson Chandler during the regular season, only his 4^th in the league.  He’s also 4 years younger than Chandler, with a much more refined offensive game, as well as a higher ceiling.  Even more fun fact: he only made $2.5 million. 

            The main issue is Hibbert is a restricted free agent this summer and the Pacers can match any qualifying offer from another team.  However, the Pacers only have 5 guys locked up already, and almost $40 million on the books.  If they Mavs offer Hibbert $12 or $13 million, I don’t think the Pacers can match.  Now does that seem like you’re over-paying him? Yes, it does.  But if you aren’t going to get Dwight, then might as well get another top-5 center in the league for cheaper.

            This also may seem like a downgrade from Chandler.  Is it though?  Hibbert is developing at a fast rate and is younger than both Howard and Chandler.  I’d also have to put him as the fourth player in the “Top-4 Center in the League” category with Howard, Chandler and Andrew Bynum (and he won’t be fourth for too long). 

            So say you go this route, and your lineup is Dirk-Deron-Hibbert-Marion-Delonte-Roddy B-Wright-Azubuike.  Any development from Roddy or progress by Azubuike and this is a strong to very strong top 8.  More than anything, Dallas would have the three key positions in the NBA locked down, which I will explain now why Deron is more important than Dwight.

Option 4: Get Deron Williams AT ALL COSTS

            As I just pointed out, there are only about 4 (maybe 5 or 6 if you think Nene, Ibaka, Gasol or Noah are actually in their category; they’re not) elite centers in the NBA.  Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond might be able to add to it, but they both are more glorified 4’s that are taller than the average power forward.  How many elite point guards are there though?  Rose, Rondo, Deron, Westbrook, Paul, Parker, Curry, Ellis, Lowry (yes, he is, look at his numbers), Irving and Rubio, before you have the older veterans (Nash and Kidd) and the next level of Conley, Evans, Miller, Harris, Felton, Wall, Teague and Chalmers.  So that’s 11 elite point guards, and 8 more who are closer than the next group of centers.  That’s two thirds of the league that will have as good a guard as only 4 teams have a center.  A great point guard is a must-have in the NBA for the time being, as you see in that list Parker is the oldest one and he’s not even 30 yet.  If the Mavs want to compete, they will need an elite point guard more than an elite center.

            With that piece of information, you can see why signing Deron Williams is so much more important than Tyson Chandler.  If the Mavs kept Chandler, they would be hamstrung in signing anyone else for the time being, as Tyson may have won the Defensive Player of the Year award, but he is no superstar.  A superstar is the guy you go to, down 1, late in the fourth quarter of a playoff game.  Dirk has been that guy for 12 years, and he can only do it for so much longer.  Now imagine Deron being able to run a pick and roll/pop with Dirk.  Nowitzki will no longer have to use the bump-pivot-one legged-horizontal to the ground jump shot as his go-to move.  Deron could set him up.  What would Tyson give the aging German?  Maybe the possibility of an offensive rebound if he misses?  No, I’ll pass on that.  Give me Deron, and a shot at Dwight or Hibbert, over an offensively inept big, with a vast injury history. 

            What it all comes down to is trusting Cuban and Donnie Nelson.  Those two have built a team that could have won it in ’03 (Dirk injury when the Spurs series was at 1-1), should have won in ’06 (corrupt officiating), was the favorite in ’07 (worst matchup possible against the only man who could be them that year) and won it in ’11.  They know what the hell they are doing.  Let them do it, and don’t try to think you are smarter than them.  They know more than you. The analogy that really fits is the Cowboys in ’96: if you could have traded Aikman, Emmitt and Irvin for max draft picks and young talent, would you of?  Get out early, not late, or the Mavs could be stuck in mediocrity for 16 years.