So now that the
quarter-mark of the MLB season has passed, I thought it’d be a good time to
check back with my pre-season predictions
and make adjustments for forecasting the rest of the season.
N.L.
East
Pre-Season
Prediction Currents
Standings
Phillies Braves
26-17
Nationals
-5 Nationals 25-17
Marlins
-6 Marlins
23-19
Braves -8 Mets
22-20
Mets -21 Phillies
21-22
The lack of Ryan Howard
in the lineup might b e having a larger effect than I originally though, but
being only 5 games back without your best offensive player is nothing to worry
about too much. What should worry the
Phillies are the runs that the Braves have been producing. The Braves are second in the NL in runs
scored after struggling in that department last year. If their pitching can keep at the decent
level it is at then Atlanta definitely has a shot.
However, I’m not giving
up on the Phillies just yet. Their worst
starter is Joe Blanton: Joe Blanton with his ERA of 3.74 with 5 quality
starts. If Philadelphia starts scoring
runs at all, then 5 games is nothing, especially with the high number of games
remaining against the Braves. I also
still think the Nationals will pass the Braves.
Their team ERA is leading the majors and Bryce Harper is having just the
impactful splash that I thought he would.
So maybe the race is a little closer, but I’ll keep my pre-season
thoughts intact, with maybe the Braves staying ahead of the Marlins.
N.L.
Central
Pre-Season
Prediction Current
Standings
Reds Cardinals 23-19
Pirates
-7 Reds 22-19
Brewers
-8 Pirates 20-22
Cardinals
-10 Astros 19-23
Cubs
-17 Brewers 17-25
Astros
-41 Cubs 15-27
Maybe my most
under-ratement of a team (99% due to spite, 1% due to the loss of El Hombre)
the Cardinals have been the second most dominant team in baseball with a run
differential of +58. The loss of Pujols
has given more at-bats to their younger talent of Allen Craig (.373/.424/.765)
and Jon Jay (.343/.393/.438) and Carlos Beltran has broken out for 13 bombs and
33 RBI. What is even scarier is that
Chris Carpenter hasn’t pitched an inning and Adam Wainwright has an ERA of
5.77. Lance Lynn, Jake Westbrook and
Kyle Lohse have picked up the slack with a 15-5 record, 16 quality starts and
all with a sub-3.00 ERA.
With all of that said,
I think the Reds will eke it out over St. Louis. With just a half game separating them, I
trust the Reds’ lineup more than the Cardinals’ and Johnny Cueto is the real
deal (and I made a STUPID fantasy trade, thinking I was trading high on a guy
about to plummet!!!!). I also feel like
the Pirates have enough to challenge for the second spot in the division, but I’ll
give the Cardinals their due and concede them into the spot.
I definitely
under-rated the Astros too: they aren’t the worst team ever, just really
bad. The Cubs on the other hand, might
be the worst team ever and will easily challenge for 100 losses. The Brewers have nothing going outside of
Ryan Bruan, especially Yovanni Gallardo (Damn fantasy pick).
N.L.
West
Pre-Season
Prediction Current
Standings
Diamondbacks Dodgers
29-13
Giants
-3 Giants 22-20
Dodgers
-7 Diamondbacks 19-24
Rockies
-10 Padres 16-27
Padres
-12 Rockies 15-26
The Dodgers have
surprised everyone, however the slipper might be about to fall off due to Matt
Kempt’s injury. However, I don’t think
they will regress to far as the over-rating of Arizona leaves 3 teams in the
division with easier wins then say the East divisions. Andre Ethier is having a solid enough campaign
to be the fill-in Kemp for the time being, and Chris Capuno has come out of
nowhere to be a solid starter.
Melky Cabrera is
carrying the Giants’ offense with a .360/.407/.512 and if Pablo Sandoval can
come off of the DL quickly then they have a shot to challenge the Dodgers. They will need Tim Lincecum to sharke off
that 6.04 ERA and join the other 4 starters at 3.00 and under. The Diamondbacks will need Justin Upton to
continue hitting and stay healthy along with the soon to be off of the disabled
list Daniel Hudson (who I traded Cueto for) to have a monster second half. I’m going to have to go with a switch at the
top, with San Francisco just edging out Arizona, and the Dodgers falling into 3rd
place.
A.L.
East
Pre-Season
Prediction Current
Standings
Yankees Orioles 27-16
Rays
-1 Rays
25-18
Blue
Jays -4 Blue Jays 24-19
Red
Sox -5 Yankees 21-21
Orioles
-29 Red Sox 21-21
Notice I did not call
the Dodgers the surprise team, as that title belongs to the Orioles. I will admit I complete underestimated the
team, but I am still not buying into them… this year. They have a good nucleus and Adam Jones is an
absolute stud- .307/.351/.602 with 14 homers and 29 RBI. Chris Davis still strikes out a lot, but is
somehow balancing a .300 batting average with it. They have a powerful lineup, however their
pitching staff leaves something to be desired.
The bullpen is solid, but they have 3 starters hover around ERA’s of
5.00.
As a disclaimer, I
wrote the pre-season predictions before the Pineda and Rivera injuries crippled
both parts of the Yankees’ pitching staff.
With those two injuries in mind, I think the Rays will win the
division. They have had a tough early
schedule and have battled injuries, but I trust Joe Madden to pull it off. If Longoria comes back hitting the same way
he was before the hamstring injury (.329/.433/.561) and Matt Moore can pull out
the magic he showed in the post-season then Tampa Bay could run away with the
division.
The Yankees should be
able to hammer their way back into wild-card position, leaving the Blue Jays
and Orioles to battle for third place. I
think it will come down to a mid-season trade for a starter for both of them,
and whomever can get the better pitcher will be able to outlast the other. So I’ll stick with the Blue Jays in third,
but am hopeful that the Orioles can stay above the Expensive Red Sox.
A.L.
Central
Pre-Season
Prediction Current
Standings
Tigers Indians 23-18
Royals
-12 White Sox 21-21
Indians
-18 Tigers 20-21
Twins
-20 Royals 17-24
White
Sox -21 Twins
14-27
In easily the worst division
in baseball, the Tigers have not come out of the gate strong. Four of the five teams have negative run
differentials, and it would be all 5 if not for a recent winning streak by
Chicago. Asdrubal Cabrera has not regressed
with his .309/.404/.504 but the rest of the lineup is leaving something to be
desired, with no other regular batting above .270 for the Indians. Derek Lowe is carrying the team with his 6-2
record and 2.15 ERA while only striking out 2.30 per nine innings. I’m not sold on the Indians being able to
hold off the sure-to-come Tigers’ surge.
The Royals have had an
up-and-down first quarter, as if you take out their 12 game losing streak they
would be a strong 17-12. Their young
bats are starting to come around, and if Eric Hosmer finds his pop then they
can make a run at the division. What’s
more inspiring, is Felipe Paulino’s 13.2 inning scoreless streak and Bruce Chen
shutting down the Rangers. If this
pitching staff can get to a serviceable level for the rest of the season, then
Kansas City has a shot.
I think the Tigers
still pull it out, but by a much closer margin over Kansas City. The Indians should stay ahead of the White
Sox but I’ll sway with Chicago staying ahead of Minnesota.
A.L.
West
Pre-Season
Predication Current
Standings
Rangers Rangers
26-17
Angels
-1 Athletics 22-21
Mariners
-25 Mariners 20-24
Athletics
-32 Angels 18-25
A recent run of bad
baseball has derailed the high number of wins that Texas was on pace for, but
they are still easily the class of the division, and probably of the American
League. Their run differential of +79 is
twice as much as anyone else in the league, and they are sitting at a 94.6
playoff percentage with 119 games to play.
Josh Hamilton has slowed down, but is still leading the Triple Crown
categories, and the starting pitching has regressed from their unbelievably hot
start. The Neftali Feliz injury is worrisome,
but not as much to Texas as they have a 17-game winner to slide into their 5th
rotation spot. I just can’t see any of
the three contenders in their division being able to keep up with the 8 game
cushion on the only serious challenger.
The Athletics have been
surprising with their AAA lineup and injured starting pitching. The Brandon McCarthy injury is going to slow
them down some, as they are hoping that Dallas Braden can throw soon. Josh Reddick is having a breakout year
leading the team in every offensive category.
The Mariners have shown some promise, and with King Felix coming back to
his form last night against Texas, they are still a tough out when he is pitching.
The Angels have to
easily be the disappointment of the young season along with their $300 million
dollar pop-out machine, Albert Pujols.
Mark Trumbo and Mike Trout are the bright spots on the team, with
.336/.403/.586 and .350/.413/.600 respectively.
Jered Weaver has been phenomenal but the rest of the rotation is leaving
something to be desired. The bullpen has
been atrocious. If the Angels can turn
their pitching staff back to where it should be, and Pujols can start raking
then they still have a shot at the wild card as the East teams beat each other
up.
I’ll have to leave the
order the same, with a closer gap between all of the teams and the A’s possibly
switching with the Mariners.
Playoff
Teams:
National
League:
Champions:
Phillies, Reds, Giants
Wild
Cards: Nationals and Cardinals
American
League:
Champions:
Rays, Tigers, Rangers
Wild
Cards: Yankees, Angels
Division
Series Winners: Reds and Nationals;
Rangers and Rays
World
Series: Rangers over Reds in 6
I’ll leave the majority
the same, but switching in the Cardinals and Giants for the Marlins and
Diamondbacks.
AWARDS:
N.L.
MVP: Pre-Season: Matt Kemp; Runner-up: Andrew McCutchen
This is risky as I am
not sure he can keep it up after the injury, but I’m going to have to take
McCutchen going forward. McCutchen has 7
home runs, 21 RBI and 7 steals while batting .340 and is just hitting his
stride. Ryan Braun is just behind him
with 12/30/8 batting .333 and David Wright is also in the mix with 4/25/4
hitting .415. So I’ll just flip the
order of the top two predicted.
A.L.
MVP: Pre-Season: Robinson Cano; Runner-up: Ian Kinsler
Cano has been solid,
4/16/1 and .303, but not spectacular.
Kinsler has been the better second baseman, but his teammate is leading
my thoughts for the rest of the season. Josh
Hamilton is having one of the better starts to a season in MLB History as he is
still on pace to hit around 72 home runs and 190 RBI (both near records) while
hitting just under .400. He won’t be
able to keep the pace up, even if he stays healthy, but he has given himself
quite a cushion. The before-mentioned
Adam Jones has the best shot to catch him, as he is the only other American Leaguer
bringing all 5 tools to the table at a high rate right now. I’m going to lean towards Hamilton, with
Kinsler making a late season surge to remain runner-up.
N.L.
Cy Young: Pre-Season: Clayton Kershaw; Runner-up: A.J. Burnett
The Burnett prediction was
a little optimistic, but Kershaw has been on the money with a 1.90 ERA and 51
strikeouts. Brandon Beachy has distinguished
himself as the clear second place right now with a 1.33 ERA and 39 K’s to go
with 5 wins. The other contender is the
contract year Cole Hamels is having at 6 wins, 2.48 ERA and 58 strikeouts. I’ll leave Kershaw in first and Beachy in
second.
A.L.
Cy Young: Pre-Season: Justin Verlander; Runner-up: Colby Lewis
Verlander came within 2
outs of his third no-hitter in his last outing, and is at a 2.14 ERA with a
0.80 WHIP and 68 K’s in 67.1 innings. He
is the clear favorite. Jered Weaver has
his no-hitter to go with 6 wins and a 2.80 ERA, and is probably in runner-up
position just ahead of Jake Peavy. If
you take away Yu Darvish’s two starts against Seattle, then he is right with
Verlander at 5-1 with 1.94 ERA and a strikeout an inning. The Colby Lewis prediction would look decent…
if you take out two starts as well; nevertheless he is still at 3.30 ERA and 53
strikeouts. Not terrible, but he is just
behind the top tier. I’ll keep Verlander
at 1 and Weaver at runner up, but Yu Darvish lurking the break into the top 2.
N.L.
Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper
Since coming up a few
weeks ago, Harper has gone .256/.340/.451 with 2 homers and the ballsiest steal
of home I’ve ever seen. He has kept his
attitude in check for the most part, and is showing off his defensive ability
and base-running more than anything.
Wade Miley of the Diamondbacks is probably ahead of him right now (2.14
ERA) but I’m leaning toward Harper keeping up his pace.
A.L.
Rookie of the Year: Yu Darvish
As mentioned earlier,
Yu would probably be in the lead for Cy Young if he could not freeze up when
pitching against his childhood hero Ichiro.
The guy has just been dominant, including 14 K’s in a game against the
Indians and shown his anti-C.J. Wilson by coming back out after a 2-hour rain
delay to beat the Angels. Mike Trout is
having a good start, but he will need a huge drop-off from Darvish to even get
into the conversation.
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