So I know this seems
like cheating since the Eastern Conference Series’ have already began play, but
I didn’t want to do a half and half preview so I just waited. It’s not like anything notable like an actual
good player getting hurt happened in those game 1’s.
Eastern Conference
#2 Miami Heat vs. #3
Indiana Pacers (Miami up 1-0)
The
only matchup I correctly predicted and now possibly the most intriguing series
of the round. I thought that the Pacers
had a better chance than any team in the East of dethroning the heavy favorites
from Miami before the playoffs started, and now with Bosh’s injury (and
possibly missing the rest of the series) Indiana’s chances are even
higher. Everyone knows that it is more
like the Big 2.5 in Miami to begin with and I would rate Bosh somewhere between
Nick Collison and Elton Brand as far as power forwards that might be able to
win a series still left in the playoffs, but the Pacers are one of the few
teams left where he is needed.
Between
Roy Hibbert, David West, Tyler Hansbrough and even Louis Amundson, the Pacers
have the deepest front court of any team left.
Miami’s weakness has always been a lack of an inside presence and while
Bosh is not a real “presence” he at least was a long-bodied defender who rebounded
decently. So what are the Heatles to do?
Play LeBron at the 4? Does Udonis Haslem
have enough left to really be a factor?
I wouldn’t be surprised if LeBron does average about 13 rebounds a game
in the series, but Miami needs him to lock down Granger like he did in Game 1
(1-10 shooting). This leaves the door
open just enough for the Pacers to make a series out of it.
Now
I know that without Bosh, the Heat outscored the Pacers by 15 in the second
half without Bosh and he was a -7 for the game, but I think that is more
attributed to the younger Pacers not being able to make the proper adjustments
on the fly. I think Frank Vogel will have
his guys more prepared to attack the Miami weak spot and who on the planet
really thinks Erik Spoelstra can out coach anyone? So I think that Indiana will be able to steal
a game in Miami to balance out the game in Indiana in which LeBron feeds off of
the opposing crowd and realizes how dominant he can be for a 35-9-15 game and
that leads to a game 7. The most glaring
weakness to the Pacers is their lack of a superstar closer and the Heat have 2,
so I’m going to have to take Wade having one of his “I’m getting to the line
every time I have the ball” games where he shoots about 20 free throws and the
Heat win in 7.
#4 Boston Celtics vs. #8
Philadelphia 76ers (Boston up 1-0)
This series was over about 30 seconds after Philly
disposed of the crippled Bulls: whenever Evan Turner and Jrue Holiday began
dancing on the table as if it was game 7 of the finals, Boston won this
series. It was obvious then that the
younger 76ers had reached their ultimate goal going into the playoffs of
beating the Bulls (which they probably did not have much confidence in doing in
the first place). Boston on the other
hand, knows that the clock is ticking and this is their last run.
I’m sure Bill Simmons is walking around with a fully
pitched tent with the luck the Celtics have had in their favor. They draw the Hawks who’s second best player
was just coming off of an injury causing Josh Smith to do Josh Smith things
(was that not the worst last minute of a basketball game ever in their game 6
loss?). Then the likely second round
opponent, Chicago, owners of the league’s best record for the past two seasons,
loses their MVP in game 1 of the first round landing the 8th seeded
up start 76ers in Boston’s path. Now,
the other main contender in the Celtics’ way to the Finals loses its third best
player for an indefinite amount of time with an injury that is sure to
linger. It’s like a twisted movie where
the pompous Boston fans act like they are the underdog that fought their way to
a deserved title.
I like the Philadelphia’s core of
Holiday-Turner-Hawes-Iguodala-Williams and think they will be contenders in the
near future should they keep them together.
However, their expectations are too low to win this series. Not to mention Rajon Rondo is in “Eff you”
mode and could average a triple-double for the series. I think Boston takes it in 5, and very likely
sweeps them should Paul Pierce get hot in Philly.
Western Conference
#1 San Antonio Spurs vs. #5
Los Angeles Clippers
Two things jumped out at me about these teams from the
first round: I’ve been criminally under-rating the Spurs and I agree with Zach
Randolph (partially) on something. I’ll
start with Randolph, who called the Clippers the “biggest floppers in the
league.” I’ve always thought Paul gets
away with murder just because he is smaller than everyone else and of his
reputation, but Blake Griffin truly has turned into a whiner (and I know
Randolph punched him in the face yesterday, but every game leading up to game 7
Griffin was crying after every touch). I
would not put Lob City in the category of the Heat or even the one-man-flop
show that is Manu Ginobili, but they are gaining rapidly.
The
Spurs on the other hand, are peaking at just the right time. I thought the Jazz were a bad matchup for San
Antonio, and they were, but the Spurs ran them out of the gym. Boris Diaw is playing near the level he did
in the ’06 playoffs for the Suns when he was the best player on the court in
most games. His play, in addition to the
Stephen Jackson and Kawhi Leonard additions give the Spurs the deepest rotation
in the league allowing for Duncan and Ginobili to get extended rest during
games. Tony Parker is having possibly
his best season yet and Gregg Popovich is the best coach left in the
playoffs. Most of all, the Spurs have
flown under the radar all season on into the playoffs. They just keep grinding and winning.
I
think Tony Parker might eviscerate Chris Paul in this series. Paul will then attribute it to an injury
(somehow he’s always hurt when he loses, but the injury disappears when he is
winning) but without CP3 wining his own position, then the Clippers cannot hang
with the Spurs. Duncan will abuse Blake
Griffin/Kenyon Martin and the Los Angeles does not have an answer for
Ginobili. I think the Spurs end this one
quick in 5, and get even more rest as they wait for the winner of the other
Western Semifinal.
#2 Oklahoma City
Thunder vs. #3 Los Angeles Lakers
The marquee matchup with the most stars and glamour of
the conference semifinal round, I think this series will live up to the
hype. Two years ago in the Thunder’s first
playoff foray, OKC gave a good fight against the eventual champion Lakers with
Durant matching Kobe bucket-for-bucket but the deeper Lakers’ supporting cast
prevailing. Now, I think the teams might
be more even as far as depth, but the physical and more importantly mental
matchup lies in favor of the Lakers.
The Lakers starting front court is unmatched in the NBA
and the Thunder will be outmanned down low.
I’m guessing it will be Perkins on Bynum and Ibaka on Gasol but I’m sure
there will be much switching as far as the individual matchups go. Either way, the Lakers have the advantage in
both of those matchups (sorry Sports Guy, Kendrick Perkins is not good enough to
hang with either, so even if he would not have gotten hurt the Lakers would
have prevailed in the ’10 Finals).
Mentally, I think L.A. is in the heads of the Thunder players, all because
of the Artest elbow. The way that the
altercation and the rest of that game went down (Kobe out-gunning Durant in OT)
the Lakers treated Oklahoma City like a little brother and they just took
it. If the game 7 performance from
Ron-Ron continues, then the Thunder are in trouble.
The Thunder made me, and many other Mavericks’ fans look
foolish as they dismissed Dallas in the first round. Many will say it was because of the lack of
Tyson Chandler in the middle (or the lucky bounce/stupid foul in games 1 and 2
but I’m not bitter) but I believe it was the emergence of the Russell Westbrook
jumper. I wrote about his jump shooting
success in my last basketball post, but when Westbrook is hitting near half of
his top of the key jump shots, then Oklahoma City can beat anyone. The problem is, can he sustain that
success? If he can’t, then it will take
a Jordan-esque (I’m not ruling that out) performance from Durant to win this
series.
I think this will be a tennis-point of a series as each
team’s secondary stars step up. There
will be a huge 15-15 Andrew Bynum game followed by a disappearance as Westbrook
gets hot for 30. Then there will be a
25-14 Gasol game followed by James Harden untangling his beard around the rim
all night. This series just seems
destined to go to 7 games and Vegas is giving the Thunder a huge home-court
advantage with a 7.5 line for Game 1. I’m
not as sold though, and Durant already got his lucky break in the first round. Kobe takes over in game 7 and moves the
Lakers on.
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