The time is now (as has
become accustomed with the Rangers) to discuss the Josh Hamilton contract
situation. He successfully managed to do
everything possible to push the contact talks out of the off season, only to do
everything possible with his play to bring it to the forefront of Ranger Fans’
minds. So let’s delve into one of the
most complex and complicated contract circumstances I’ve ever seen.
When he is healthy*** Josh Hamilton is arguably the best
player in baseball. I’m not even going
to use parenthesis or a footnote because everyone knows that Hamilton’s health
has held him back since being traded to the Rangers. Could it be attributed back to his history of
drug abuse? We will get to that in a minute.
However when you look at his numbers compared to games played it’s pretty
ridiculous. Over his time as a Ranger
(except 2009 where he was hurt the entire season off and on) if you average out
his numbers over 140 games a season, he’s averaging 34 home runs, 120 runs
batted in and a .315/.381/.582 triple slash.
This all goes with Gold-Glove level defense in the outfield and superb
base running. So if he even plays close
to a full season, you have an MVP candidate every year. The only person on the planet that really
compares to his numbers are Matt Kemp, who will have to continue his torrid
pace of last year and this year to even catch up to Hamilton (which he would
also have to have Josh regress). So
stats-wise, Josh Hamilton is a blank-contract, do-whatever-it-takes-to-sign-him
player.
Then you have to factor in his history: injury and
off-the-field. Almost everyone knows the
heroine to homerun-hitting story of Hamilton.
It’s hard to prove or disprove whether his history of heavy drug use has
affected his body’s durability, but I have to lean more toward that it has had
a hand in it. As mentioned before,
Hamilton missed over half of the 2009 season because of injuries, and when he
was playing he was playing hurt. Whether
it is bruised ribs from jumping into the wall or a freak broken arm from diving
home, Hamilton manages to stay hurt. Can
you ask him to change his game? No, it’s what makes him a valuable player: the
fact that he has no concern other than being the best player on the field. With baseball though, injuries are so
prevalent that if you truly factor them in to every contract it’d be hard to
sign anyone. Just ask Boston about Carl
Crawford.
What
worries people more about Hamilton are his alcohol relapses. Once in 2009 and then shortly before this
season, the recovering alcoholic has fallen off the wagon. The first time there were pictures of women
sucking whipped cream off of his chest and the second time there was allegedly
a video of him and a woman in the bathroom of a bar. To me though, what a guy does off the field
(if legal) should not be factored in to whether you want to contract his
abilities to your team on the field. Besides
that, the off-the-field issues do not harm his play like some have though
because of his bad 2009. His relapse
this year caused more publicity, but he has had the best start to a season of
his career (or possibly anyone’s in history).
What did irk me the wrong way were the comments Hamilton had in spring
training toward his latest relapse about him “not owing the Rangers anything.” For the first time, Hamilton seemed a little
diva-like and not humble and grateful.
The Rangers have paid him over $26 million over the past five years,
albeit a bargain when taking in his numbers, they took the chances on the guy
when not many would. Nevertheless, the
amount of production that Hamilton provides completely outweighs these
off-the-field issues and I think he deserves whatever market value would
suggest.
As
mentioned earlier, the only comparable player statistically is Matt Kemp. Kemp signed an extension of 7 years/$148
million before the season. Kemp though,
is also 3 years younger than Hamilton and played no less than 155 games in the
past 4 seasons. I’d say that on the
whole Hamilton brings more to the table on the field, but the age and injury
concerns put him slightly below the value of Kemp. However, the free agent contracts signed last
winter might drive the market value up even higher. Albert Pujols’ 10 year/$260 million+ and
Prince Fielder’s 9 year/$214 million contracts have given Hamilton’s agent
quite a bargaining chip. Pujols may have
better overall numbers, but has shown a decline and is 2 years (allegedly more)
older than Hamilton. Fielder is a few
years younger, but also does not bring the all-around hitting game as well as
defensive/base-running skills. So while
the market should point to a contract in the league of Kemp’s, if Hamilton gets
to free-agency the Yankees or Red Sox will probably throw a contract in the
Fielder/ Pujols range.
The
Rangers may have made a mistake by not getting the extension done before the
season. Hamilton is on pace to hit 76
home runs, 195 RBI with a .406/.458/.840 for the Triple Crown. While his numbers are sure to regress,
Hamilton’s attitude toward the organization already shows that they might not
get the home-town discount (Cliff Lee can suck it) if he gets to free
agency. So if the Rangers are looking to
get the extension done, now is the time.
If they wait until Hamilton comes back to Earth, he will still want the
numbers being thrown around now and Jon Daniels will not want to cave
then. If Texas lets him finish the
season and enter free agency, the price might be driven even higher and while
the Rangers have more money now, they still don’t have as much as
LA/NY/Boston.
So
for the sake of the Ranger fans (and the fact that outfield is the only weak
spot in the farm system) get the deal done.
Even if it is for 8 years, $196 million or more, the Rangers have the
room to do it. Besides Hamilton, the
only other key free agents will be Napoli and Colby Lewis and the current
payroll for 2013 is about $80 million.
The year after that is when the TV contract money kicks in and Texas
will be able to re-up Cruz/Young (at a cheaper price)/Harrison. With the amount of young players under
control, and money at their disposal, the Rangers have the ability to sign
Hamilton to the max contract. Let’s hope
they do so.
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