NFL Week 15 Picks

Once again, luck was not on my favor with my picks last week.  Even though my total selections went 9-7 for a profitable weekend, my best bets were a menial 2-4.  Meaning if there were $100 bets on each game, I was -240 in games I bet, and +470 in games I picked but did not bet.  Ultimate fail.  On the Cowboys’ front, the knee-jerk reactions of Cowboys Nation continue as now they are doomed to fail to make the playoffs in the majority’s eyes.  Yet, all that Dallas has to do is beat a Green Bay team at home, starting their backup quarterback, a Washington team with an atrocious home field advantage as of late with their backup quarterback, and Philadelphia at home.  Does that really sound so gloom and doom? 

                What’s even more ignorant about some analysts and fans is their insistence to blame someone for individual games.  Some people even went as far to blame Romo for their performance on Monday… Because you know he plays defense and gave up 45 points and failed to force a punt.  The reason the game went the way it did was the dropped interceptions.  There were two blatant drops and one overturned by a penalty.  If Dallas gets just two of those (which all three led to touchdowns) then it is a completely different game.  That is what Kiffin has made this defense: turnover or bust.  They just do not have the talent to line up and stop good offenses (Denver, New Orleans, Chicago) so they have to try and force as many turnovers as possible. 

                Where does that leave Dallas this week?  Well if Rodgers plays, they better hope he is rusty because the last time he played Dallas as well as the last time he played in this stadium (Super Bowl XLV) he was pinpoint and magnificent.  If Rodgers does not play, the Cowboys have actually been bend but don’t break against the middle to lower tier of quarterbacks, giving up just 73 points (14.6 a game) to the likes of Bradford, Griffin, Foles/Barkley, Ponder and McGloin).

                The biggest factor that gets over-looked is how good the Dallas offense has been at home.  Yes, I know that defensive stops/touchdowns skew the totals, but the Cowboys are averaging 34 points a game at home.  Can a Matt Flynn-led Green Bay team score more than 30 against the Cowboys’ defense, as depleted with injuries and leaky as it has been? That is the unknown and what will leave this game to the TLF rather than a blowout.

Chargers +10.5 over BRONCOS

I Tweeted this one out since there was not a home-dog on Thursday, I went with the double-digit underdog trend which is hitting about 62% on the season.

Redskins +7 over FALCONS

How much of a downgrade is it really from Griffin to Cousins? By my rankings and spread-guessing, I had it as a 4-point line from analysis on the season so far.  Since the only difference will be Cousins for Griffin, I think the rally-factor of the rest of the team around Cousins outweighs the slight downgrade in talent. 

BUCCANEERS +6 over 49ers

The first of the NINE home-dogs this week, Tampa Bay has been quietly good the past few weeks.  Sean Glennon might actually be a competent quarterback and the defense has finally jelled.  Outside of playing the terrible Redskins’ defense, Kaepernick has been atrocious on the road.  He has not broken 200 yards and has just 5 touchdowns versus 4 interceptions in the five games.  I will take the Bucs to keep it close.

TITANS +3 over Cardinals

Carson Palmer at home versus Carson Palmer on the road is a big difference.  The Titans have been decent recently and the loss of the Honey Badger will leave an opening for Delanie Walker to have a huge game.

RAMS +7 over Saints

Somehow I squeaked out last week (by 80 points) and now have gotten lucky that my semifinal opponent has Peyton/Demaryius who had subpar games, but my TLF cannot continue.  Brees and Graham are due for a terrible game and the St. Louis pass rush will be the difference.  Nope, no reverse jinxes here.

GIANTS +7 over Seahawks

As much as I hate it, I have to stick to the trends.  A west coast team playing on the east coast early game; home underdog; touchdown underdog; LVH SuperContest; public backing; every trend is going against the Seahawks so I will follow it.

BROWNS PK over Bears

I had already typed in the Bears winning, and then I remembered that their defense is awful, Cleveland has Josh Gordon, and the Browns defense is exponentially better than Dallas’.  Jay Cutler coming back could be the worst thing to happen to this Chicago team.

Texans +7 over COLTS

Indianapolis has not looked good in weeks.  They especially have been starting slow in the first halves, meaning covering by more than a touchdown is a long shot.  Houston has been competitive the past couple of weeks and will face less booing on the road than at home.

Bills -2 over JAGUARS

Why in the world is Buffalo favored on the road, over the team with the longest win streak in the AFC?  Why is the public all of a sudden backing Jacksonville, the least backed team all year, with 73% of their bets?  Why is the line the opposite way by the Vegas Power Poll by over a field goal?  Ladies and gentlemen, your “Las Vegas Always Wins” Sucker Bet of the Week!

DOLPHINS +3 over Patriots

This line slipped to 3 this morning and I am jumping all over that.  New England has not looked very good the past couple of weeks against non-contenders Cleveland and Houston, now they have a team in playoff positioning and there is no Rob Gronkowski.  Ryan Tannehill has even turned himself into a viable QB2 in fantasy and the Dolphins finally finish the job against New England.

VIKINGS +5 over Eagles

EEEEEEEEEEEvvvvveerrrryyyyyyybody is on Philly in this one.  A whopping 88% (probably top 3 all season) are backing the Eagles.  Yet, the line has only moved from 4.5 to 5.  What gives?  That means that the sharps are waiting to place their sizable bets on Minnesota whenever the line gets high enough.  Everything I said about Philadelphia last week still remains true: you cannot judge a team based on a game in a complete blizzard. 

Jets +11 over PANTHERS

Carolina just is not a blowout team.  The play smothering defense and let Cam Newton do just enough to not screw up the win.  Geno Smith on the road sounds like an abysmal thing to put your money on, but betting on Carolina to win by double digits is just as bad, so I’ll go with the trend of double digit-dogs.

RAIDERS +4.5 over Chiefs

You know that stat about 88% of the money being on Philly?  Well NINETY PERCENT of money for this game is on Kansas City.  I just cannot bring myself to pick against Vegas giving 9-1 odds.  That is all of the analysis I need for this game.

Packers +7.5 over COWBOYS

Since I started writing this, Rodgers has been ruled out.  Yes, I think the Matt Flynn-led Packers can put up 30 on this defense.  No Sean Lee, no Bruce Carter, no Morris Claiborne, a shell of DeMarcus Ware… Flynn will rejuvenate the Packers like it’s 2011 and lead them to the upset of the week.

STEELERS +3 over Bengals

This may end up being the second sucker bet of the week, but I just cannot trust Andy Dalton on the road, at night, in Pittsburgh. 

Ravens +6 over LIONS

Could Baltimore be recreating their run from last season?  At this point, they were right about in the same spot and Joe Flacco started getting hot.  We will see Monday, and I’m sure Reggie Bush will not play and Calvin Johnson will have a dreadful game to knock out three more of my semifinal fantasy teams.

(Best bets will be tweeted after final lines Sunday morning)

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Panthers -1, Packers +17, Packers/Cowboys OVER whatever the total ends up as.

Others I Like:

Bills +8, Redskins +17, 49ers/Buccaneers UNDER 53, Eagles/Vikings OVER 40, Browns +10, Rams/Saints OVER 37

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 9-7

Overall: 113-93-6