The Big XII, as a conference, appears to be at the lowest point in its history with no team ranked in the top-10 preseason polls. However, as a whole it is the deepest conference in the nation with the fact that 90% of the teams made bowls last season, and every team from the bottom half (except Kansas) beat a team from the top half.
When Does Basketball Season Start?- This team just wants to get off the field and watch Andrew Wiggins play.
Kansas Jayhawks, 2-10
Charlie Weis has not been able to turn the program around and the Jayhawks have not beaten a current Big XII team since October of 2009. Whether it’s incumbent starting Michael Cummings or BYU-transfer Jake Heaps, the quarterback position should be better than last year, but the options to throw to are below par. James Sims will be the focal point of the offense, but he will miss graduated offensive tackle Tanner Hawkinson. The defense will be young and inexperienced and I doubt this team will come close to winning a conference game.
The Middle Tier-All of these teams could qualify for bowls, but do not figure to contend for the conference championship (although they will probably play spoiler once or twice).
West Virginia Mountaineers, 5-7
Iowa State Cyclones, 5-7
Baylor Bears, 6-6
Kansas State Wildcats, 7-5
Texas Tech Red Raiders, 8-4
West Virginia was riding high as a top-five team with the Heisman Trophy front-runner behind center. Then they took a trip to Lubbock, Texas where many national title/Heisman contenders get vanquished. The Mountaineer defense was exposed for the porous unit that it was and Geno Smith was rattled by the atmosphere. Gone now are three of the best players in the program’s history (Smith, Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey) and the replacements leave a lot of question marks. Florida State-transfer Clint Trickett and Texan Paul Millard will battle for the quarterback job, but the receiving corps is desperately searching for a leader. Transfer running back Charles Sims will hope to play the Tavon Austin-role in both the backfield and out of the slot. The offense will still score, but the defense might give up even more points this season. WVU could make a bowl because of a fairly easy non-conference schedule, but I doubt that finish above .500.
It is never a good thing when the top NFL prospect on your team is a punter, but Iowa State’s Kirby Van Der Kamp is just that (albeit the top punter in the nation). The Cyclones lost the heart of their team in linebackers Jake Knott and A.J. Klein. That strong line-backing play helped keep Iowa State in games it probably should not have been in because of their weak offense. This season, coach Paul Rhoads hopes that quarterback Sam Richardson can provide that type of leadership on the offensive side of the ball. Richardson had an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio last season in limited action. Jarvis West is a dynamic slot receiver who may be small, but creates matchup problems with linebackers. While this year may be tough, Iowa State might be a year and a few defensive players stepping up from moving up a tier in the conference.
Art Briles has built one of the best offensive programs in the nation down in Waco. However, I am not sold that Bryce Petty can keep up the elite level of quarterback play. He does not have the athleticism of RG3 or Nick Florence, nor does his arm strength look on that level. Either way, he will have one of the best running backs in the country in Lache Seastrunk, who came on at the end of last season to put up almost 1,000 yards in the final 7 games. Tevin Reese will take over primary receiver duties from Terrance Williams and guard Cyril Richardson is the top interior lineman in the nation. The Bears’ defense is still awful though, and I do not think that Petty will be able to outscore as many teams this year.
Bill Snyder will have to replace one of the most versatile players he has ever had in Collin Klein. I personally think that Klein was severely over-rated, and the system, offensive line and running backs were the real stars on that offense. Either way, gone is Klein, starting full back Braden Wilson (a huge loss for this team, more than most) and 80% of the offensive line. John Hubert is back at running back and will have offensive tackle Cornelius Lucas to run behind, but the starting quarterback is up in the air. Juco transfer Jake Waters will start the first week, but don’t be surprised if the athletic Daniel Sams gets some playing time as well. Both quarterbacks lack experience and could lead to a rough start. Ty Zimmerman is a top-5 safety in the country and have to anchor/lead the defense with the loss of linebacker Arthur Brown. I think the Wildcats will regress back to the mean (high turnover/fumble rates, great record in close games) and might be in trouble the opening week against the FCS National Champion North Dakota State Bison.
The King has returned. Kliff Kingsbury returns to his alma mater as the youngest head coach in a BCS conference. After one season leading Texas A&M’s offense to record heights and a freshman Heisman Trophy winner, Kingsbury takes over a Red Raider team with more interior talent than previous versions (the one positive of the Tuberville era). Kerry Hyder and Dartwan Bush are the best pair of defensive linemen that Tech has had in recent memory. They combined for 26 TFL and 12 sacks last season. Le’Raven Clark is a beast of a guard that will be playing on Sundays, and Jace Amaro is the best tight end in the conference. The running back corps is deep and fast led by Kenny Williams who had 824 yards last season on almost 6.0 yards per carry. The big question for this team is at quarterback for the first time since the current coach’s first season as a starter. Michael Brewer appeared ready to take over the string of 4,000 yard passers, yet a possible fracture vertebrae could keep him out for the first part of the season. True freshman Davis Webb and walk-on freshman Baker Mayfield could be see action, and both will have Amaro, receiver Eric Ward (82-1053-12) and Jakeem Grant to make their lives easier. If Brewer were healthy, I think this team could jump TCU, but with the question marks, eight wins seems like a good base point.
The Top Cluster-Most analysts have these four teams neck and neck, but I see one that should outshine the rest.
TCU Horned Frogs, 8-4
Oklahoma Sooners, 9-3
Oklahoma Stat Cowboys, 10-2
Texas Longhorns, 12-0
The Horned Frogs have the best defense in the conference led by future first round pick Jason Verrett. Verrett has 6 interceptions and broke up 16 passes last season. He also blocked a field goal to seal an overtime win against West Virginia last season. On the defensive line is Devonte Fields, who was the best freshman defensive player in the country last season racking up 10 sacks and 18.5 TFL. The offense loses top receiver Josh Boyce, but gets quarterback Casey Pachall back from suspension. Trevone Boykin played well in relief last season, but Pachall has too much talent to not start if available. This team would look a lot more dangerous if not for the dismissal/quitting of three other starters, and the early season suspension of Fields. They also play LSU the first game of the season, so not having their best player will not start the season well.
Oklahoma returns a lot of talent from the conference co-champion team last year, but lost a good bit to the NFL. The Sooners lost their starting quarterback, left tackle, top two receivers and two defensive linemen. Oklahoma does return offensive playmakers in Jalen Saunders, Trey Millard and Damien Williams as well as the conference’s top center Gabe Ikard. On defense, Aaron Colvin is a shut down corner and Corey Nelson is a good combo outside linebacker. The biggest question is under center where all time offensive yardage leader Landry Jones is gone, and Blake Bell has one defining skill: being able to run in one-yard touchdowns behind an NFL-like offensive line. I have been saying for two years that if Bell has to throw, then this team is in trouble and Bob Stoops agrees as he has named freshman Trevor Knight the starter. Knight has more athleticism than Jones did and an exponentially better arm than Bell. However, I think there will be a learning curve, especially in a three game stretch against three of the best defense in the country, at Notre Dame, TCU and Texas. The Sooners could end up losing all three of those games if Knight has not found a comfort level yet.
Oklahoma State has more talent on defense than it has since Mike Gundy got to Stillwater, but the offense might not be as good as what Cowboys’ fans are used to. Shaun Lewis anchors a strong linebacker group with Caleb Lavey that has great defensive back cover. Justin Gilbert is a top-ten corner in the nation, and Daytawion Lowe, Shamiel Gray and Tyler Patman are all above average, seniors with a lot of experience. Calvin Burnett provides a pass rush up the middle. On offense, Josh Stewart is the next great Oklahoma State wide receiver but the other skill positions are lacking. Joseph Randle is now playing for a different team of Cowboys, and Gundy still has a quarterback question between Clint Chelf and J.W. Walsh. Both look capable of handling the job, but as we have seen many times over the years, a 2-quarterback system just does not work. The schedule is not exactly friendly to the Cowboys either with trips to Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia and a neutral site game against Mississippi State. If Gundy could decide on just one quarterback that can step up, then I think Oklahoma State could challenge the top of the conference.
I would have never guessed that the team that I would think has the best chance of going undefeated would be these Longhorns. It starts with the best offensive line in the conference and probably the second best in the nation. Trey Hopkins and Mason Walters have started over 30 games each, and Donald Hawkins started the entire last season at left tackle after transferring from a community college. Josh Cochran and Dominic Espinosa have started the past two seasons completely as well. They are big and physical and block for the deepest group of running backs in the country. Johnathan Gray, Joe Bergeron and Malcolm Brown could probably start at over a hundred different schools in the FBS, but share the same Longhorn backfield. The trio rushed for over 1,600 yards at almost five a pop with 23 touchdowns while catching another 36 balls for 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns. Texas brings back their top two receivers in Mike Davis (57-939-7) and Jaxon Shipley (59-737-6) for quarterback David Ash to throw to. Ash has had his issues, but in his third year running the system, I think he will take a major step up. On defense, Jackson Jeffcoat is a possible first round pick at defensive end, and if he’s fully healthy after a torn pectoral muscle, I think he will end up as the conference defensive player of the year. Jordan Hicks leads an athletic group of linebackers backed up by Carrington Byndum and All-American Quandre Diggs. The X-Factor of the team is athlete Tyrone Swoopes. Even with Ash in place, Mack Brown is not redshirting Swoopes to bring in as a running option at quarterback, leading me to believe this kid has something special. The schedule is difficult, but manageable as the Longhorns get Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Kansas State and Texas Tech all at home, with their road games to the smaller, less daunting atmospheres of the Big XII. With Oklahoma in a somewhat rebuilding phase, I think this could be Texas’ year to get back on top. My brain is telling me that they will slip up against someone they shouldn’t, but my gut is telling me that they run the table.
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