The ACC has added two new members, Pittsburgh and Syracuse with Louisville coming in next season. As it expands, the conference as a whole has gotten deeper and better, but the top is still quite short of the top tier of teams in the nation. With that said, this might be the year that an ACC team makes it to the National Championship.
Hoping for a Bowl-All six of these teams have a shot at a bowl game, and it will come down to the swing games amidst themselves.
Boston College Eagles, 3-9
Syracuse Orange, 4-8
Pittsburgh Panthers, 4-8
Virginia Cavaliers, 5-7
Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 5-7
Duke Blue Devils, 6-6
Boston College is a senior laden team (over half of their starters) but the problem is that these seniors just are not that good. Only outside linebacker Kevin Pierre-Louis figures to be drafted and it will probably be near the end of day three. The schedule is no cake walk either besides their three easy non-conference games. The Eagles’ last non-conference game is a cross-country trip to USC, they draw North Carolina and Virginia Tech from the Coastal division, and only have one home game against the bottom half of the league. They might improve on their 2012 record of 2-10 but not by much.
Syracuse embarks on their ACC journey with a new head coach since Doug Marrone is now coaching the Buffalo Bills. Gone also are quarterback Ryan Nassib and offensive lineman Justin Pugh, two of the biggest reasons (besides Marrone) that the Orange finished 8-5 last year. Sean Hickey could end up being a first round pick next year if there is another flood of tackles and Jerome Smith is one of the best backs in the conference, but the rest of the roster leaves something to be desired. Syracuse also has two tough non-conference games against Penn State and at Northwestern as well as a brutal road schedule in conference. This will definitely be a rebuilding year for the Orange.
Pittsburgh starts its own ACC voyage opening the season with a home game against the Seminoles. This could be a brutal wake up call to just how weak the Big East has been the past few years. Tom Savage returns at quarterback but this is another roster devoid of next-level talent. The ACC schedules were not kind to the Panthers where they might not be favored in a single conference game.
I actually really like Virginia and think that after their next two strong recruiting classes, they could be a force in the ACC. However, their difficult non-conference schedule will hold them back from a bowl this season. While both games are at home, opening the season with BYU and Oregon has to be one of the hardest (if not most difficult) start to any season in the country. If Phillip Sims had not transferred, I would like this team even more, but with absolutely no experience at quarterback, the Cavaliers are not quite ready yet.
Wake Forest returns one of the most experience quarterbacks in the nation with Tanner Price. The four-year starter could be without the Deacons’ leading returning rusher as Josh Harris might be ruled academically ineligible. Price will have the ACC’s returning reception leader Michael Campanaro to throw to, and he also doubles as the top pro prospect on the team. The defense has become one of the ACC’s best as a complete unit, but the offensive line has already been hurt by injuries. I think a bowl game will be on the line in the last game of the season, at Vanderbilt.
Duke went to a bowl for the first time in 18 years last season, and they will be looking for another trip this fall. The Blue Devils will have to replace starting quarterback Sean Renfree, but Anthony Boone should be a solid replacement. Boone has been good, but not spectacular in relief roles the past two seasons completing over half his passes for almost 1,000 yards and 6 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. Against Virginia, Boone threw for 4 touchdowns while also adding 41 yards on the ground leading Duke to the upset win. Cornerback Ross Cockrell is also one of the best in the conference. The non-conference schedule should give Duke four easy wins and carry them to a bowl for a second consecutive year.
The Middle Tier-These teams are very close in expectations for the year, but still stand a clear level above the top.
Maryland Terrapins, 6-6
North Carolina State Wolfpack, 7-5
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 8-4
Miami Hurricanes, 9-3
North Carolina Tar Heels, 10-2
Maryland had the worst quarterback luck I have ever seen, as they were down to their FIFTH string quarterback, who started the season as a linebacker. The Terrapins were 4-2 before the rash of QB injuries, which led to a six-game season-ending losing streak. With C.J. Brown given a sixth year of eligibility, he should handle the role well this fall. Ricardo Young might get some repetitions too to provide a dual-threat change of pace, but either way the roster is deep enough around them to get six wins easy, and I consider that the floor for their season.
North Carolina State lost its quarterback and half of its defensive backfield to the NFL draft, but retains enough talent to breeze into a bowl with a weak non-conference schedule. The Wolfpack will be quarterbacked by someone other than Sean Glennon for the first time since Russell Wilson was still there. Brandon Mitchell should win the job and he will have three quality receiving options in tight end Asa Watson, and receivers Quintin Payton and Rashard Smith. N.C. State is good for one big upset a year (last year over Florida State, the year before over Clemson) and I think they get another this year to place them firmly in a bowl.
Due to NCAA sanctions to other teams, Georgia Tech received a place in the ACC Championship Game last year despite a .500 record. The Yellow Jackets should be better this season with as many as six defensive players that could be drafted. That group is led by pass rusher Jeremiah Attaochu who could parlay a big year into a first round draft grade. Vad Lee takes over the triple option and in his one game of extensive action proved himself capable: 60% completions, 169 yards passing, 112 yards rushing and three total touchdowns. If the non-conference schedule was not so harsh (at BYU and Georgia) then Paul Johnson’s team could be looking at double digit wins.
Miami returns 30 different players that started games last year, including at least one at every single position. Their entire offensive line is back along with their top two receivers and tight end. Stephen Morris is back under center and being touted as a possible first round pick. Morris completed almost 60% of his passes for 3,345 yards and 21 touchdowns last season and his efforts at the Manning Passing Academy have NFL people buzzing. Morris will have Seantrel Henderson protecting his blindside, a top-5 tackle in the country. The defense returns the majority starter at every position besides cornerback and this group could be the fastest defense in the nation. Al Golden has done a great job with a quick rebuild of the Hurricane program and like the next team, Miami might be an SEC upset away from a BCS game.
North Carolina has always had as much NFL-talent as anyone and this year is no different. Bryn Renner returns as quarterback after throwing for 3,356 yards on 66% completions, 28 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions. His total efficiency was down from his sophomore season, but he turned the ball over less and gained more total yards. Renner has the size and arm of a top-level quarterback and if he can continue to improve his accuracy then he could hear his name called quite early next spring. The offensive line will be rebuilt after three members were drafted, and playmaker Giovani Bernard is gone as well, but the Tar Heels have NFL talent to fill in with James Hurst and A.J. Blue. The defense is star studded with as many as four top-3 round talents led by Kareem Martin the 23rd ranked prospect for next year’s draft. I do not think that they can, but if North Carolina pulls the upset over South Carolina on August 29th, this team could be BCS Bowling as they avoid both Florida State and Clemson.
The Top Tier-Teams fighting for the title.
Florida State Seminoles, 10-2
Virginia Tech Hokies, 11-1
Clemson Tigers, 11-1
Florida State lost 11 guys to the NFL Draft, yet Jimbo Fisher has recruited well enough to not have that much of a drop off. The Seminoles return four of their five offensive lineman as well as their top two receivers. The question will be at quarterback where the most highly touted signal caller to put on the Speared helmet steps up (which is quite a big deal considering the last two quarterbacks were first round picks, and two other Seminole quarterbacks won the Heisman). Redshirt freshman Jameis Winston is a 6’4’’ freak of an athlete that was drafted by the Texas Rangers out of high school and has already become a valued outfielder/relief pitcher on the Seminole baseball team. In his spring game debut, Winston went 12 for 15 for 205 yards and 2 touchdowns, without even showing what he can do with his legs. This kid could be the next Cam Newton. The defense lost six players in the draft, but the five returners are all scheduled to be selected in the top 3-4 rounds next year. Even the replacements, which have yet to start a game, are considered NFL prospects. They are led by defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan who will continue the line of strong defensive linemen to come out of Florida State. The schedule is easy in that only two games will the Seminoles be tested; but both of those games are on the road at Clemson and Florida. With top recruiting classes coming in and the experience that Winston will get, next year might be the year for Florida State.
If there is one thing I know about the ACC, it is that Frank Beamer does not stay mediocre for long. Last season’s 7-6 mark broke a streak of eight straight double digit-win seasons for Virginia Tech, and since 1992, the Hokies have not won less than 9 games in back to back seasons. Beamer brings back the best physical specimen of a quarterback in Logan Thomas. At 6’6’’, 257 pounds Thomas is a beast with enough athleticism to run when he needs to. After a standout sophomore year (3,013 yards, 19 TD, 10 INT 60%) Thomas was rumored as a possible first round pick. However, his junior year failed to live up to expectations both individually (2,976-18-16-51%) and with the team. I expect a strong bounce back year for him. Projected starting running back Michael Holmes is dismissed from the team, but the Hokies have never had trouble finding strong runners. If a go-to receiver steps up (I’m guessing D.J. Coles) then this could be a dangerous offense. The defense returns 9 starters including eight possible draft picks. They are led by James Gayle at defensive end and Kyle Fuller in the defensive backfield. The injury to Antone Exum hurts, but the defense will be this team’s strength…outside of the schedule. The Hokies dodge both Florida State and Clemson. The biggest challenges will be Marshall and number one Alabama to open the season. An upset win there and this team might run the table.
I am not going to lie, I might be biased by how much I just love watching Tajh Boyd and Clemson play. If Texas Tech could not get Kingsbury, I would have been perfectly happy with Clemson Offensive Coordinator Chad Morris. Coming off a bowl win over LSU, the Clemson Tigers are primed for the best season in their history. They have a senior, four-year starting quarterback in Boyd. They have the most dynamic playmaker east of the Rockies in Sammy Watkins. They have possibly the best offensive coordinator in the country. The defense leaves something to be desired outside of linebackers Quandron Christian and Spencer Shuey, but I believe this offense can carry the Tigers to an ACC Title. Boyd did not make significant jumps from his sophomore to junior season by raw numbers, but he became a much more efficient quarterback. He only threw for 68 more yards and 3 more touchdowns, but he did it on 72 less attempts while gaining 8% on his completions (59% to 67%). He may lack prototypical height at 6’1’’ but the recent influx of shorter and mobile (he ran for 103 yards against NC State and over 500 yards on the year)/accurate quarterbacks has Boyd in the mix for the second quarterback taken next spring. Losing DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Ellington will hurt, but Sammy Watkins is ready to be the go-to receiver and Roderick McDowell should fill in nicely at running back. The Tigers get Florida State and Georgia at home, but do travel to South Carolina in the last game of the season. My gut tells me that they will handle Florida State and split with the SEC teams. However, if this defense can slow down the Bulldogs/Gamecocks offenses better than expected, this team does have a shot at 12-0.
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